Quote:
Originally Posted by Cooleyvol
Isn't the point that's trying to be made that it happens WAY more often in OOTP than in real life?
If not, that's the point I'm trying to make.
Its unrealistic as it is. You'll have players having decent/good years and no injuries and then BANG -- talent drop.
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I understand the point, but this goes back to what sparks was saying about spreads and trendlines - if it is that big of an issue, document it. Run 30 years of a fictional league and compare it with real-life stats. Run another 30 years. Then another. If you can get one of the add-ons for OOTP that calculates Win Shares, you can probably run a study similar to the one Bill James ran about consistency in his Gold Mine 2008 book. If you see too many As and Fs, that would be a great sign.
I guess that's one of the issues I have with player development. It's all pretty nebulous. Other things aren't so nebulous - starting pitchers really don't miss anywhere near as many starts than IRL, for example, and it's such a huge, easy to see issue that I can pull any 5 years at random from any modern-era based league and use those to show it (I did take several years at random from a pet league of mine to show this on another thread). There are players in the league with BABIPs of .500 or near there when there has *never* been a case IRL of a major league hitter getting anything higher than the low .400s for a single season or around .360 for a career (another classic slap hitter, Rod Carew, ended with a .360). K/W ratios are also unreasonably high for some players compared to real-life ratios.
Honestly, I just don't know that I see an issue with player bumps and dips being that far out of line with reality. I don't *like* stats playing that large of a role on a visceral level, but that's not the same as saying I have reasonable doubts about their use.