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Search took 0.00 seconds. Search: Posts Made By: DrArbiter
Forum: Earlier versions of OOTP: General Discussions 04-28-2011, 02:34 AM
Replies: 108
Views: 7,475
Posted By DrArbiter
No, LaRussa confused correlation with causality. ...

No, LaRussa confused correlation with causality.

The "underlying mechanism" is trivial. Baseball teams score runs in bunches, because of the nature of the way a baseball inning works. For...
Forum: Earlier versions of OOTP: General Discussions 04-28-2011, 02:06 AM
Replies: 108
Views: 7,475
Posted By DrArbiter
The explanation is even simpler: All of LaRussa's...

The explanation is even simpler: All of LaRussa's observations confuse correlation with causality.
Forum: Earlier versions of OOTP: General Discussions 04-24-2011, 06:30 AM
Replies: 108
Views: 7,475
Posted By DrArbiter
I must give full credit here. Most of the...

I must give full credit here. Most of the last-ups "discussions" I've seen go nowhere, with stubborn reassertions of incorrect arguments without any attempt to make recourse to the data. Full marks...
Forum: Earlier versions of OOTP: General Discussions 04-20-2011, 11:04 AM
Replies: 108
Views: 7,475
Posted By DrArbiter
I'm not claiming that I'm right. I'm...

I'm not claiming that I'm right.

I'm pointing out that this is a question on which there is an extensive existing literature (and which has been discussed N times previously on the OOTP forums)....
Forum: Earlier versions of OOTP: General Discussions 04-20-2011, 03:05 AM
Replies: 108
Views: 7,475
Posted By DrArbiter
But you've just repeated the fallacious argument...

But you've just repeated the fallacious argument I cited, which threatens to turn the discussion into a Monty Python skit.

Since I'm one of the authors in the literature cited, my standard...
Forum: Earlier versions of OOTP: General Discussions 04-19-2011, 10:02 AM
Replies: 108
Views: 7,475
Posted By DrArbiter
For a complementary theoretical analysis: ...

For a complementary theoretical analysis:

"In Search of the "Last-Ups" Advantage in Baseball" by Theodore L. Turocy (http://www.bepress.com/jqas/vol4/iss2/5/)

Turocy, Theodore L. (2008) "In...
Forum: Earlier versions of OOTP: New to the game? 04-30-2009, 01:02 AM
Replies: 3
Views: 715
Posted By DrArbiter
Or, the explanation is even simpler - small...

Or, the explanation is even simpler - small sample size. The historical home team winning percentage is between .530 and .540. A home-road split like the one cited is unusual, but still well within...
Forum: Earlier versions of OOTP: General Discussions 04-18-2009, 03:07 PM
Replies: 107
Views: 7,641
Posted By DrArbiter
I count 7 (since I don't think the United League...

I count 7 (since I don't think the United League will play, and I have reasons to doubt the Continental League will either). Major League Baseball (tm) and Minor League Baseball (tm) are one league.
Forum: Earlier versions of OOTP: General Discussions 04-17-2009, 06:34 PM
Replies: 107
Views: 7,641
Posted By DrArbiter
After the rule changes two years ago, a tie game...

After the rule changes two years ago, a tie game in MLB is essentially impossible, and any game that ends in a tie will not be replayed. The only way for a game to end in a tie is for it to be...
Forum: Earlier versions of OOTP: General Discussions 04-17-2009, 06:31 PM
Replies: 107
Views: 7,641
Posted By DrArbiter
By counting. A majority of professional baseball...

By counting. A majority of professional baseball leagues use some form of promotion and relegation, period.



I expect there are a lot of Dutch and Italians, among others, would take offense at...
Forum: Earlier versions of OOTP: General Discussions 04-17-2009, 10:13 AM
Replies: 107
Views: 7,641
Posted By DrArbiter
A majority of professional baseball leagues in...

A majority of professional baseball leagues in the world use promotion and relegation; the Dutch and Italian leagues -- neither of which are total slouches, as the WBC showed -- practice it. As does...
Forum: Earlier versions of OOTP: General Discussions 03-05-2009, 06:10 PM
Replies: 69
Views: 5,906
Posted By DrArbiter
My argument (and maybe LGO's as well, but I do...

My argument (and maybe LGO's as well, but I do not presume to speak for him) is that the current non-system for financials is the root cause of weird player movement. Player AI might be simplified --...
Forum: Earlier versions of OOTP: General Discussions 03-03-2009, 08:05 PM
Replies: 69
Views: 5,906
Posted By DrArbiter
Most of the latter-day examples of independent...

Most of the latter-day examples of independent leagues before the current batch -- the post-WWII Mexican League, the various leagues in Vermont and Quebec, and so forth -- were indeed outlaw leagues....
Forum: Earlier versions of OOTP: General Discussions 03-03-2009, 02:51 PM
Replies: 69
Views: 5,906
Posted By DrArbiter
Not to pick nits in an otherwise fine post, but...

Not to pick nits in an otherwise fine post, but not all independent leagues were outlaw leagues. "Outlaw" specifically referred to leagues which did not respect the contracts of other leagues,...
Forum: Earlier versions of OOTP: General Discussions 02-28-2009, 08:10 PM
Replies: 11
Views: 773
Posted By DrArbiter
It is what it is: it's a runner out advancing. It...

It is what it is: it's a runner out advancing. It can't be a stolen base attempt, because the ball gets away from the catcher, which is a misplay.
Forum: Earlier versions of OOTP: General Discussions 01-26-2009, 12:20 PM
Replies: 16
Views: 1,660
Posted By DrArbiter
To follow up on LGO's comments, the issue seems...

To follow up on LGO's comments, the issue seems to be that TSN thinks their archives are much more valuable than the market thinks they are. The figures I've heard quoted suggest they value the...
Forum: Earlier versions of OOTP: General Discussions 01-21-2009, 09:00 PM
Replies: 49
Views: 1,761
Posted By DrArbiter
If the runner never stops running during the...

If the runner never stops running during the play, then it's not going to be charged as an error, and that's the advice I'd give to any scorer. If the runner does stop and then continues to move...
Forum: Earlier versions of OOTP: General Discussions 01-21-2009, 12:11 AM
Replies: 49
Views: 1,761
Posted By DrArbiter
Looks like you've got an older copy of the rules...

Looks like you've got an older copy of the rules (rule 10 got reorganized two years ago), but the concepts are still the same. Again, the key concept in determining the scorer's judgment is ordinary...
Forum: Earlier versions of OOTP: General Discussions 01-20-2009, 08:57 PM
Replies: 49
Views: 1,761
Posted By DrArbiter
First, I think you mean 10.12(a)(1); 10.12(d)(1)...

First, I think you mean 10.12(a)(1); 10.12(d)(1) pertains to a wild throw from the catcher on a stolen base attempt.

Second, the intent of 10.12(d) is to clarify exactly the situation in the play...
Forum: Earlier versions of OOTP: General Discussions 01-20-2009, 07:19 PM
Replies: 49
Views: 1,761
Posted By DrArbiter
No. That cannot ever be an error. See Rule...

No. That cannot ever be an error. See Rule 10.12(d)(2).

The error on the play as described before must be being charged because the runner from first advanced to second. That can - and does in...
Forum: Earlier versions of OOTP: General Discussions 10-07-2008, 09:04 PM
Replies: 4
Views: 419
Posted By DrArbiter
By definition, it's not realistic to have Greg...

By definition, it's not realistic to have Greg Maddux pitch to Pops, since Maddux was still in high school when Stargell retired. So, I'm not sure what you're looking for, here.

Expecting Maddux...
Forum: Earlier versions of OOTP: General Discussions 09-12-2008, 02:09 AM
Replies: 6
Views: 532
Posted By DrArbiter
I don't think the issue is so much limiting the...

I don't think the issue is so much limiting the size of the reserve roster, though -- it's that not having an affiliated minor league team grants the club essentially perpetual rights to a player.
...
Forum: Earlier versions of OOTP: General Discussions 08-29-2008, 01:09 AM
Replies: 2
Views: 521
Posted By DrArbiter
Notso. Or, at least, that's not the most...

Notso. Or, at least, that's not the most important difference. See Tom Ruane's article in the 2005 Baseball Research Journal. Quick summary: whether you're a ground-ball or fly-ball hitter matters...
Forum: Earlier versions of OOTP: General Discussions 06-08-2008, 06:51 PM
Replies: 37
Views: 2,244
Posted By DrArbiter
None, and it might even be an advantage to bat...

None, and it might even be an advantage to bat first, though it's so close to zero it's almost certainly a wash. See my recent paper in Journal of Quantitative Analysis in sports for a literature...
Forum: Earlier versions of OOTP: General Discussions 06-04-2008, 10:19 PM
Replies: 23
Views: 1,741
Posted By DrArbiter
I'll add to that the issue that the game pretends...

I'll add to that the issue that the game pretends you can set salaries and revenue parameters independent of each other. Player salaries are a function of the revenue pie that's out there, and their...
Showing results 1 to 25 of 177
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