Prospect development

brian_msbc · 05-11-2020, 02:00 PM

If a prospect has reached (or nearly reached) his potential early (like by age 22), does that mean he will likely exceed his potential?

andyhdz · 05-11-2020, 02:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brian_msbc

If a prospect has reached (or nearly reached) his potential early (like by age 22), does that mean he will likely exceed his potential?

You wish.

brian_msbc · 05-11-2020, 07:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by andyhdz

You wish.

?

So... no?

progen · 05-11-2020, 07:08 PM

Not normally, at least from what I've seen. Usually plateaus, and doesn't improve. I suppose it happens, and may have happened in some of my universe's, but can't remember noticing it on the teams I've managed.

Curve Ball Dave · 05-11-2020, 11:50 PM

Often a guy who reaches his potential that young had a low ceiling to begin with. Guys who keep on developing beyond their original scouted potential are very rare, but it's satisfying when it happens.

jimmysthebestcop · 05-12-2020, 12:46 AM

I'm going to disagree here. Because without looking in the editor or having 100% accuracy turned on you don't know. You must use stat lines along with ratings to see what a player is really doing. Ratings themselves are meaningless.

Look in the default MLB setup. The largest group of players are 2.5 to 3 stars. And it covers bench warmers, platoon guys to perennial all stars. Overall few players are the superstar 5 star guys.

I also believe that a player can't reach his potential without MLB experience. I've had plenty of players 2.5 potential then after 3 years in the mlb boom 4 stars. Cause I was using stat lines to help plus you can only develop so much in the minors.

So until your 22 year old has MLB experience you won't really know. Know if has 3 years of mlb experience already then yeah he is most likely capped already.

I'll use my recent MLB setup as an example. I trade for Nick Solak from the Rangers in March 2020. He played IRL 30+ games in MLB in 2019. OSA and my scout head him 2.5 overall and potential. I'm like this guy has IRL MLB numbers and AAA for 3 seasons that are good. Perennial 130+ WRC+ type of guy from AA to MLB. I start him entire 2020 and 2021 and 2022. Star rating exactly the same the entire time right up until July 2022 boom 4 stars. 105 WRC+ his 1st year with me. Then 128 WRC+ and now end of July 2022 he sitting with 135 WRC+.

So with a player like that I knew he was producing better stats then his "star rating". Star ratings will change if that is what you are basing "potential" on. Got to read deeper into the stat lines see what the story is.

I have a ton of examples like this every season. I made 2nd round playoffs in 2021 I still called up 4 rookies in 2022 to start the season. All of their stars went up slightly. They will probably go up even more next season with a full year of MLB experience. But I knew these guys had a legit shot. Their AAA/AA numbers were crazy. One guy I went right from A+ to MLB. He is 5 stars now by July. His WRC+ was over 250 from Rookie to A+. wOBA .600+. Consistent. He would have crushed AA/AAA as well. His contact was rated 45/60 now its 75/80 in just 4 months of MLB experience. His ratings were behind his stats.

Ratings and Stars at a quick glance might tell you the difference between a superstar and a never was. But that big grey blob in the middle to distinguish bench guys from all stars you need those stat lines and at least 3 years of data or even more sometimes.

itsmb8 · 05-12-2020, 03:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jimmysthebestcop

I'm going to disagree here. Because without looking in the editor or having 100% accuracy turned on you don't know. You must use stat lines along with ratings to see what a player is really doing. Ratings themselves are meaningless.

Look in the default MLB setup. The largest group of players are 2.5 to 3 stars. And it covers bench warmers, platoon guys to perennial all stars. Overall few players are the superstar 5 star guys.

I also believe that a player can't reach his potential without MLB experience. I've had plenty of players 2.5 potential then after 3 years in the mlb boom 4 stars. Cause I was using stat lines to help plus you can only develop so much in the minors.

So until your 22 year old has MLB experience you won't really know. Know if has 3 years of mlb experience already then yeah he is most likely capped already.

I'll use my recent MLB setup as an example. I trade for Nick Solak from the Rangers in March 2020. He played IRL 30+ games in MLB in 2019. OSA and my scout head him 2.5 overall and potential. I'm like this guy has IRL MLB numbers and AAA for 3 seasons that are good. Perennial 130+ WRC+ type of guy from AA to MLB. I start him entire 2020 and 2021 and 2022. Star rating exactly the same the entire time right up until July 2022 boom 4 stars. 105 WRC+ his 1st year with me. Then 128 WRC+ and now end of July 2022 he sitting with 135 WRC+.

So with a player like that I knew he was producing better stats then his "star rating". Star ratings will change if that is what you are basing "potential" on. Got to read deeper into the stat lines see what the story is.

I have a ton of examples like this every season. I made 2nd round playoffs in 2021 I still called up 4 rookies in 2022 to start the season. All of their stars went up slightly. They will probably go up even more next season with a full year of MLB experience. But I knew these guys had a legit shot. Their AAA/AA numbers were crazy. One guy I went right from A+ to MLB. He is 5 stars now by July. His WRC+ was over 250 from Rookie to A+. wOBA .600+. Consistent. He would have crushed AA/AAA as well. His contact was rated 45/60 now its 75/80 in just 4 months of MLB experience. His ratings were behind his stats.

Ratings and Stars at a quick glance might tell you the difference between a superstar and a never was. But that big grey blob in the middle to distinguish bench guys from all stars you need those stat lines and at least 3 years of data or even more sometimes.

Great explanation, and IMO that's how the game should be modeled. Ratings are naturally going be displayed based off of a mix of his past 3 seasons of stats, so you're not going to know his ratings went up until its already happened.

RBI Baseball · 05-14-2020, 02:27 PM

Interesting example with Solak and his real life numbers. I just started playing OOTP and figured I needed to forget about guys whose real life potential I buy into, because their OOTP ratings and stats would determine what they are in the game.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jimmysthebestcop

I'm going to disagree here. Because without looking in the editor or having 100% accuracy turned on you don't know. You must use stat lines along with ratings to see what a player is really doing. Ratings themselves are meaningless.

Look in the default MLB setup. The largest group of players are 2.5 to 3 stars. And it covers bench warmers, platoon guys to perennial all stars. Overall few players are the superstar 5 star guys.

I also believe that a player can't reach his potential without MLB experience. I've had plenty of players 2.5 potential then after 3 years in the mlb boom 4 stars. Cause I was using stat lines to help plus you can only develop so much in the minors.

So until your 22 year old has MLB experience you won't really know. Know if has 3 years of mlb experience already then yeah he is most likely capped already.

I'll use my recent MLB setup as an example. I trade for Nick Solak from the Rangers in March 2020. He played IRL 30+ games in MLB in 2019. OSA and my scout head him 2.5 overall and potential. I'm like this guy has IRL MLB numbers and AAA for 3 seasons that are good. Perennial 130+ WRC+ type of guy from AA to MLB. I start him entire 2020 and 2021 and 2022. Star rating exactly the same the entire time right up until July 2022 boom 4 stars. 105 WRC+ his 1st year with me. Then 128 WRC+ and now end of July 2022 he sitting with 135 WRC+.

So with a player like that I knew he was producing better stats then his "star rating". Star ratings will change if that is what you are basing "potential" on. Got to read deeper into the stat lines see what the story is.

I have a ton of examples like this every season. I made 2nd round playoffs in 2021 I still called up 4 rookies in 2022 to start the season. All of their stars went up slightly. They will probably go up even more next season with a full year of MLB experience. But I knew these guys had a legit shot. Their AAA/AA numbers were crazy. One guy I went right from A+ to MLB. He is 5 stars now by July. His WRC+ was over 250 from Rookie to A+. wOBA .600+. Consistent. He would have crushed AA/AAA as well. His contact was rated 45/60 now its 75/80 in just 4 months of MLB experience. His ratings were behind his stats.

Ratings and Stars at a quick glance might tell you the difference between a superstar and a never was. But that big grey blob in the middle to distinguish bench guys from all stars you need those stat lines and at least 3 years of data or even more sometimes.

05-11-2020, 02:00 PM	#1
brian_msbc Minors (Single A) Join Date: Mar 2020 Posts: 94	Prospect development If a prospect has reached (or nearly reached) his potential early (like by age 22), does that mean he will likely exceed his potential?

05-11-2020, 11:50 PM	#5
Curve Ball Dave Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Chicago Posts: 2,359	Often a guy who reaches his potential that young had a low ceiling to begin with. Guys who keep on developing beyond their original scouted potential are very rare, but it's satisfying when it happens. __________________ "Hitting is timing. Pitching is upsetting timing"-Warren Spahn.

05-11-2020, 07:08 PM	#4
progen All Star Starter Join Date: Mar 2002 Posts: 1,530 Infractions: 0/1 (1)	Not normally, at least from what I've seen. Usually plateaus, and doesn't improve. I suppose it happens, and may have happened in some of my universe's, but can't remember noticing it on the teams I've managed.

05-12-2020, 12:46 AM	#6
jimmysthebestcop Banned Join Date: Jun 2018 Posts: 1,727 Infractions: 0/2 (5)	I'm going to disagree here. Because without looking in the editor or having 100% accuracy turned on you don't know. You must use stat lines along with ratings to see what a player is really doing. Ratings themselves are meaningless. Look in the default MLB setup. The largest group of players are 2.5 to 3 stars. And it covers bench warmers, platoon guys to perennial all stars. Overall few players are the superstar 5 star guys. I also believe that a player can't reach his potential without MLB experience. I've had plenty of players 2.5 potential then after 3 years in the mlb boom 4 stars. Cause I was using stat lines to help plus you can only develop so much in the minors. So until your 22 year old has MLB experience you won't really know. Know if has 3 years of mlb experience already then yeah he is most likely capped already. I'll use my recent MLB setup as an example. I trade for Nick Solak from the Rangers in March 2020. He played IRL 30+ games in MLB in 2019. OSA and my scout head him 2.5 overall and potential. I'm like this guy has IRL MLB numbers and AAA for 3 seasons that are good. Perennial 130+ WRC+ type of guy from AA to MLB. I start him entire 2020 and 2021 and 2022. Star rating exactly the same the entire time right up until July 2022 boom 4 stars. 105 WRC+ his 1st year with me. Then 128 WRC+ and now end of July 2022 he sitting with 135 WRC+. So with a player like that I knew he was producing better stats then his "star rating". Star ratings will change if that is what you are basing "potential" on. Got to read deeper into the stat lines see what the story is. I have a ton of examples like this every season. I made 2nd round playoffs in 2021 I still called up 4 rookies in 2022 to start the season. All of their stars went up slightly. They will probably go up even more next season with a full year of MLB experience. But I knew these guys had a legit shot. Their AAA/AA numbers were crazy. One guy I went right from A+ to MLB. He is 5 stars now by July. His WRC+ was over 250 from Rookie to A+. wOBA .600+. Consistent. He would have crushed AA/AAA as well. His contact was rated 45/60 now its 75/80 in just 4 months of MLB experience. His ratings were behind his stats. Ratings and Stars at a quick glance might tell you the difference between a superstar and a never was. But that big grey blob in the middle to distinguish bench guys from all stars you need those stat lines and at least 3 years of data or even more sometimes.