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Old 11-06-2019, 11:34 AM   #21
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WAR? Good god. What is it good for?
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Old 11-06-2019, 11:35 AM   #22
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WAR? Good god. What is it good for?
OK, now I want to watch Rush Hour again!
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Old 11-06-2019, 01:06 PM   #23
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I won't say anything bad about War but I still use traditional states. I like to build my teams with contact hitters, speed, and defense. Good personalities and great health.

I feel that one of the reason War is still a big issue is how it is related to the Hall of Fame. The current use of it in the game today is becoming more accepted but the way it is used to gauge someones Hall credentials is something that causes problems.
Regarding the HoF, I think that what WAR does is allow us to re-examine the Hall cases for guys who may have been overlooked the first time because their traditional stats weren't shiny enough. I cannot understand why excellent glove men who couldn't hit a lick only get in if they played 2B or SS. I'm talking about guys like Bill Mazeroski, Red Schoendienst, Rabbit Maranville, Luis Aparicio, and Phil Rizzuto. This Great Glove/Noodle Bat Exemption only seems to apply to guys who played second and short. Along with the guys at other positions, there are even players at second and short who hit way better than these fellows, played very good defense, and can't get a sniff. It's just weird to me.
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Old 11-06-2019, 01:16 PM   #24
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Regarding the HoF, I think that what WAR does is allow us to re-examine the Hall cases for guys who may have been overlooked the first time because their traditional stats weren't shiny enough. I cannot understand why excellent glove men who couldn't hit a lick only get in if they played 2B or SS. I'm talking about guys like Bill Mazeroski, Red Schoendienst, Rabbit Maranville, Luis Aparicio, and Phil Rizzuto. This Great Glove/Noodle Bat Exemption only seems to apply to guys who played second and short. Along with the guys at other positions, there are even players at second and short who hit way better than these fellows, played very good defense, and can't get a sniff. It's just weird to me.
Yeah especially with CF, which is also a premier defensive position. Maybe even the most important defensive position in OOTP, at least according to my recent tests.

Andruw Jones should have definitely got in, and maybe Kenny Lofton as well. And both of those guys could hit well enough too.
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Old 11-06-2019, 02:23 PM   #25
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Yeah especially with CF, which is also a premier defensive position. Maybe even the most important defensive position in OOTP, at least according to my recent tests.

Andruw Jones should have definitely got in, and maybe Kenny Lofton as well. And both of those guys could hit well enough too.
Agreed on both. At least take another look. Like I said in my post, guys with great all around games get screwed, while the specialists skate. It's ridiculous. There are players all over the diamond that have been passed over without so much as a look.
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Old 11-06-2019, 02:24 PM   #26
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Yeah especially with CF, which is also a premier defensive position. Maybe even the most important defensive position in OOTP, at least according to my recent tests.

Andruw Jones should have definitely got in, and maybe Kenny Lofton as well. And both of those guys could hit well enough too.
Jim Edmonds anyone?
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Old 11-06-2019, 04:17 PM   #27
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Jim Edmonds anyone?

Garry Maddox, Fred Lynn, Paul Blair, Andy Van Slyke.



Not saying they're HOF, but fit the discussion.
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Old 11-06-2019, 05:35 PM   #28
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How about Whitaker. 75 WAR for his career. Still might not get in.
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Old 11-06-2019, 05:52 PM   #29
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Old 11-06-2019, 06:34 PM   #30
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Did a quick (well, should have been quick, but pulling the data from OOTP was a bit tedious) check of WAR to wins using OOTP 19.

Following the analysis here
https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/20...ird-order-wins
Which showed a best-fit line of y=1.06x-4.61 and an r-squared of .86

This means, first, that FanGraphs' WAR very accurately correlates to actual wins. One WAR almost exactly equals one real world win.
A team with 100 (x) wins would be expected to win [(1.06*100)-4.61] 101.39 games.
And that WAR explains 86% of the variance in actual wins.

Ideally, looking at OOTP's WAR would reveal similar results.

The actual results were...mixed.

Using a quickstart of the 2018 season, simming the entire season, and comparing actual team wins to WAR I got the following.

The line of best-fit was y=.82x+14.9 with an r-squared of .85.

This is not as good as the real-life WAR model.

First, I've had some doubts about the replacement level in OOTP. This analysis suggests that the replacement level in OOTP is lower than that used by FanGraphs. FanGraphs' WAR sets replacement level at about 48 wins. This analysis shows that OOTP's replacement level is closer to 33 wins (47.6 - 14.9). That's fine. But, a difference to note.

Secondly, the ideal slope of the line should be 1.0. Meaning that 1 WAR is exactly equal to 1 real win. FanGraphs' WAR in the linked analysis had a slope of 1.06. Pretty close to 1 to 1. OOTP's WAR had a slope of .82. Not nearly as close.

As shown above, using FanGraphs' WAR a team with 100 WAR would be expected to have 101 in real life wins.

Using OOTP's WAR a team with 100 WAR would only be expected to have [(.82*100)+14.9] 96.9 wins.

OOTP's WAR doesn't seem to be as accurate as FanGraphs' version. Which is weird since FanGraphs' has to rely on imperfect data (especially for, like, defense) whereas OOTP should have perfect data (that they may disguise a bit to create that ambiguity. Maybe they've overdone it.).

The r-squared for the season was .85 which is, for all intents and purposes, the same as the .86 for FanGraphs' WAR.


Takeaway. OOTP's WAR is useful. And does correlate well with actual wins, though it seems to be less precise than FanGraphs' WAR. The biggest difference is in replacement level. Which means that OOTP players will have higher WAR than their real life counterparts.
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Old 11-06-2019, 06:48 PM   #31
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I love your enthusiasm for math CB. Of course WAR in OOTP is useful, like all stats are. What's important is how you use them to generate success.

"Using WAR properly is difficult because it requires you to think more abstractly than some other aspects of life. The exact number is not as important as the basic range, but this isn’t just true of WAR. This is the case with all statistics in all parts of the game." - FanGraphs
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Old 11-06-2019, 07:45 PM   #32
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How about Whitaker. 75 WAR for his career. Still might not get in.
Absolutely, positively 1,000% yes.
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Old 11-06-2019, 07:51 PM   #33
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Yessir. There are a ton of 3B getting shafted because nobody believes defense means anything at 3B, and they're dead wrong. Scott Rolen, your guy, and even Ken Boyer, and Sal Bando should get another look.

EDIT: Buddy Bell too.
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