Team is Worse Playing Play By Play

[dcordash]

Originally Posted by drowssap

This has been going on for at least 2 or 3 iterations of the game, so it's not just this year's version.

I play mostly play by play and even though I couldn't really put my finger on it, the team would be worse than if I just simmed the games. I didn't know how to show this stat wise, but now I got some proof.

The team is the 1981 A's...a team that made the ALCS that year (I know, strike year). Got the one and only Rickey Henderson at the top of the lineup. I noticed he was getting caught stealing at a pace that was just stupid. I brought down the slider not only for the team, but for him to the default level, then 1 click below with no difference. The team was 16-21 when I gave up on the nonsense. He had 20 steals and 12 caught stealing at the time.



I decided to sim the rest of the season. They went from the cellar to 4th place, OK that happens all the time. So, how did Rickey do for the rest of the year? 70 steals...7 caught stealing!



I've played enough games to know your team WILL be worse if you play play-by-play. I really have 3 choices:



1. Tweak the players to be much better so they can be a little more realistic to the season. Hard to get right, time consuming.
2. Simply don't do play by play. Likely what I'll do. Makes the game less fun.

3. Stop buying the game and stop playing. I have bought this game since I think 2008 or 2009. I'm not active here (100 posts in 8 years), so it's not like my $35 dollars isn't going to be missed.



I don't know..maybe you can take a look and see if it can be fixed.

I've had the "feeling" as well. I've never chased the numbers but there is an obvious "feel" that simming games does increase the odds of losing.

Don't know if this is by design..to keep people engaged and more interactive..or it's just part of the OOTP "norm".

[Ty Cobb]

I can contribute a roll of tinfoil if someone brings beer and popcorn.

. .

[MizzouRah]

I've noticed the default -5 quick hook for SP's and RP's don't seem to apply the same in games I watch in 3D vs simming.

Maybe I'm nuts, but pitcher usage seems different to me in play vs sim.

[Miamikb2001]

Originally Posted by Sweed

Then that makes Markus and Matt liars. There is no other way to put it.

But, when I think about it, I totally see where coding two engines is easier than coding one.

I guess the over 4,700 games I've played out in my dynasty were all done with my "head in the sand". I wish I knew enough about baseball so I could recognize where things are going wrong. Maybe someday.

It's actually pretty well known that a small group of users continue to think the engines are different. Oh but wait, you have conclusive proof!!!
In the end you've made the game less enjoyable for no reason. That kind of sucks for you. But hey, you stay in your world of make believe and I'll stay in mine. The one where I enjoy playing out games.

As someone who plays it all out agree with this post


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[Brad K]

If the game doesn't play differently with a human manager, it should. Humans can be better than an AI manager. AI should get some help. And there should be a slider to determine how much. (Including having it slide the other way to help the human for those who want to never lose a game!!!)

[MikeS21]

There may not be any difference between simmed games and games that are played out. But let’s just say that my ace starter tends to save all of his “off” games for the played out games.

[BarneyRubble]

There was (I assume it hasn't changed) a difference.

[Cole]

The confirmation bias is strong in this thread.

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by MikeS21

There may not be any difference between simmed games and games that are played out. But let’s just say that my ace starter tends to save all of his “off” games for the played out games.

The OP and others, in this and many threads over the years, argue the opposite. Simming means you lose more. Playing out you win more. This is the "conclusive proof" of different engines to some of these posters.

In their world your ace will be on, not off.

[Pelican]

I’m laughing after reviewing the posts in this thread, because half of you seem to be arguing that simming games yields worse results than managing yourself, and the other half insists it yields better results. Each side is probably right 50% of the time, LOL. I guess this would be called “selective confirmation bias”? That leaves those of us who don’t see much difference between us and the AI version of us playing out games. I wish I could produce better results than my AI clone; but it does not seem to be happening.

[WyattGOAT]

Originally Posted by MizzouRah

I've noticed the default -5 quick hook for SP's and RP's don't seem to apply the same in games I watch in 3D vs simming.

Maybe I'm nuts, but pitcher usage seems different to me in play vs sim.

Exactly. I don't believe playing out the games makes one team better or worse but I absolutely believe there are some aspects of the game that work differently.

[drowssap]

I guess I have to say this again since a lot glossed over when I said it once:

I do NOT handle anything EXCEPT pitching changes and substitutions. That's it.

I brought this up in the first place because even though I couldn't quite pinpoint what the differences was (mostly because I played through the string), I knew something was up. Seeing what Henderson did from 20 and 12 caught stealing to 70-7 was so glaring, I couldn't deny it any longer.

Some brought up the engine is different....I'm not saying it. I'm not the programmer. Could even be a slight code change to make a big difference. All I'm saying is something changes. Stealing and pitcher fatigue (which I'm bringing up for the first time right now) is 2 things I notice. Without a doubt these 2 things are different.

[redranger]

If you redid the season over and over is it the same result? One season hardly seems to be conclusive in the Henderson test

Guys slump, maybe he faced better pitcher at holding runners and catchers with better arms early on?

I’m not discounting anything posted but I too seem to see abnormal results and think something is amiss, but then replay and seems to take a swing in the other direction

Sample size over multiple seasons etc….maybe you did, but I only saw reference to a single season mentioned


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[Coldfront]

Originally Posted by Cole

The confirmation bias is strong in this thread.

I was just going to post this but you beat me to it…this entire thread is an endemic case of confirmation bias. How can anyone know how realistic simulated outcomes are when only looking at the results of a single set of BASEBALL simulations?

Baseball is already random. I read in a often sited study that a players HR rate “stabilizes” after 60 PA. With an R2 of 0.5…which explains a whopping 25% of the variance.

75% of the time a players HR skill is not explainable with a sample size of 60 PA. That’s not super informative.


I am playing the 2022 Royals (15-14) so far.

Traded SalP and Benintedo for prospects when I was 9-12.

#greattrade #samplesizematters

Mike

[BarneyRubble]

Originally Posted by WyattGOAT

Exactly. I don't believe playing out the games makes one team better or worse but I absolutely believe there are some aspects of the game that work differently.

As of OOTP 19, I believe this is true. Going from memory, pitchers with high or low 'control' and batters with high or low 'eye' were affected. Which makes sense. Where the results conclusive? No. It would take a long time to get enough data to conclusively prove anything. However, it was consistent enough that I lost confidence in 'playing/watching' games. In fact, I didn't have to manage the games, just watch.

Has anything changed since OOTP 19? I don't know.

I'm tempted to run a test on 23, this time half/half for a complete season (which still wouldn't be conclusive). It's a lot time (watching 81 games) and work (script writing). Or I could just believe everything I'm told and eat my banana.

[Reed]

For those of you that say there is is no difference between playing games out and simming, please explain the following from the change list in patch 68.

Slight adjustment to SB attempt rate when playing out games

[Reed]

For those of you that say there is is no difference between playing games out and simming, please explain the following from the change list in patch 68.

Slight adjustment to SB attempt rate when playing out games

[Matt Arnold]

Originally Posted by Reed

For those of you that say there is is no difference between playing games out and simming, please explain the following from the change list in patch 68.

Slight adjustment to SB attempt rate when playing out games

There are some small adjustments to balance out the user doing things the AI doesn't. Ie. You used to be able to hit "steal base" every pitch even with a guy with a low speed rating and could still force him to 400 steals in a year. Similarly if you hit take pitch a bunch of times before swinging away, that's something the AI doesn't do while simming, so there are things to balance that out.

But if people think there's a completely different engine, and further to that, we go out of our way to make your in-game experience worse and frustrating, I don't really know how to convince you otherwise.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by Matt Arnold

There are some small adjustments to balance out the user doing things the AI doesn't. Ie. You used to be able to hit "steal base" every pitch even with a guy with a low speed rating and could still force him to 400 steals in a year. Similarly if you hit take pitch a bunch of times before swinging away, that's something the AI doesn't do while simming, so there are things to balance that out.

If people want to game the game, why not let them? The baseball gods know they're cheaters!

[Pelican]

Originally Posted by Coldfront

I was just going to post this but you beat me to it…this entire thread is an endemic case of confirmation bias. How can anyone know how realistic simulated outcomes are when only looking at the results of a single set of BASEBALL simulations?

Baseball is already random. I read in a often sited study that a players HR rate “stabilizes” after 60 PA. With an R2 of 0.5…which explains a whopping 25% of the variance.

75% of the time a players HR skill is not explainable with a sample size of 60 PA. That’s not super informative.


I am playing the 2022 Royals (15-14) so far.

Traded SalP and Benintedo for prospects when I was 9-12.

#greattrade #samplesizematters

Mike

I would probably award you the Manager of the Year prize right now, after 29 games. Winning record without those guys is mighty impressive.