Sudden drops in prospect status

game05 · 02-13-2013, 01:36 AM

I'm not new to the game but i think the questions fit better here...

The quality of my farm system has all but disappeared and i can't figure it. it seems like all of my 4.5 Star prospects have become 1 Star ones. The past three or four years in the Draft haven't netted me anyone, including a 5 Star 1B who mashed in Single A and all of a sudden slipped to .5 Star status. Three months ago i traded for two 4.5 Star prospects and both are at 1 Star now--i understand that prospects fizzle, but it seems like three months is a pretty short amount of time to completely lose your ability. My Scout has Legendary status across the board and my Minor League managers are all highly-rated. i'm not sure if there's something i should adjust, although i'm hesitant to change any prospect randomness settings because i also don't want every draftee to be a sure thing.

also, how much stock do you put in Development Budget? Mine is 3x League average, but i have money to burn. Should I jack it up? Does it matter that much?

last, i'm currently scouting the top international countries for prospects. Is there more of a value to scouting lesser countries? does the quality of the prospects themselves drop when you start scouting lesser countries (i'm not so interested in 3 Star players)?

Peregrine · 02-13-2013, 09:09 AM

I guess a couple of obvious questions to ask first are - did you change scouts recently, or did you change the scouting success rate in the game options - I've seen both of those have a dramatic effect on my prospects. I'm no scouting expert at all, but there are also other thinngs that go into scouting that can cause some drastic changes - however you seem to be getting some really big fluctuations. To me the best thing to do is ignore the star ratings for now and focus on how they are actually performing in the minors. In addition you can request a new scouting report on them and see what he is seeing - sometimes the star ratings just change on their own but the player may be the same underneath.

Curve Ball Dave · 02-13-2013, 09:17 AM

Just as ratings can drop like a rock they can also rebound. Understand that those ratings are your scout's or the OSA's subjective opinion, not an absolute. If you accept that a prospect may be 5-6 years away from the Majors (depending on how old they were when drafted) you'll accept that sometimes you have to stick with a kid and give him a chance to develop. If he's putting up good numbers in the minors, stick with him. I've had guys go from top prospect, to no prospect and back, and become contributing major leaguers.

Orcin · 02-13-2013, 11:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Curve Ball Dave

I've had guys go from top prospect, to no prospect and back, and become contributing major leaguers.

Same here. I say don't panic and stick with them. Often your scout gets a lower opinion of them after he gets a good look, and then they develop or not.

The Game · 02-13-2013, 12:22 PM

Did you change your scouting budget at all? Is it still the same as it was last year?
I recently had 2 4.5 prospects drop to 1.5 star prospects this past offseason. I had forgot to up my scouting budget and many of my players took major hits. My main guy who was the #43 prospect overall is doing the best he has done so far at AA. OSA still has him at 4.5 stars. My other guy has been oft injured this year but also is having his best season so far at AA. OSA has him at 4 stars so he did drop off a a little. He was teh #54 prospect. Now i did have 2 prospects that jumped way up in the top 100. I had a CL who was moved to SP and is now the 15th ranked prospect (recently traded) and a SS who was #98 who is now #56. I still rank 15th of 16 overall for minors.
Also with more time in your system players will fluctuate often.

BIG17EASY · 02-13-2013, 12:43 PM

Check your talent change randomness setting. The default setting is 100 (out of a possible 200). Some people have posted in the past that they feel 100 is too high. I have my leagues set at 60 and it seems pretty good.

Also, as a few people mentioned above, pay attention to how the players are performing. Ratings can fluctuate throughout a prospect's career, so just because they went down doesn't mean they've flamed out. If a player's overall and potential ratings (the stars) drop, but they're still performing well, then you should continue to treat them like you would normally. When they start to perform poorly is when you might need to worry.

And you can compare your scout's rating to the OSA ratings. If there's a big difference, there's a chance your scout is wrong in his evaluation (although the OSA could be wrong, as well).

02-13-2013, 01:36 AM	#1
game05 Bat Boy Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 8	Sudden drops in prospect status I'm not new to the game but i think the questions fit better here... The quality of my farm system has all but disappeared and i can't figure it. it seems like all of my 4.5 Star prospects have become 1 Star ones. The past three or four years in the Draft haven't netted me anyone, including a 5 Star 1B who mashed in Single A and all of a sudden slipped to .5 Star status. Three months ago i traded for two 4.5 Star prospects and both are at 1 Star now--i understand that prospects fizzle, but it seems like three months is a pretty short amount of time to completely lose your ability. My Scout has Legendary status across the board and my Minor League managers are all highly-rated. i'm not sure if there's something i should adjust, although i'm hesitant to change any prospect randomness settings because i also don't want every draftee to be a sure thing. also, how much stock do you put in Development Budget? Mine is 3x League average, but i have money to burn. Should I jack it up? Does it matter that much? last, i'm currently scouting the top international countries for prospects. Is there more of a value to scouting lesser countries? does the quality of the prospects themselves drop when you start scouting lesser countries (i'm not so interested in 3 Star players)?

02-13-2013, 09:17 AM	#3
Curve Ball Dave Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Chicago Posts: 2,271	Just as ratings can drop like a rock they can also rebound. Understand that those ratings are your scout's or the OSA's subjective opinion, not an absolute. If you accept that a prospect may be 5-6 years away from the Majors (depending on how old they were when drafted) you'll accept that sometimes you have to stick with a kid and give him a chance to develop. If he's putting up good numbers in the minors, stick with him. I've had guys go from top prospect, to no prospect and back, and become contributing major leaguers. __________________ "Hitting is timing. Pitching is upsetting timing"-Warren Spahn.

02-13-2013, 09:09 AM	#2
Peregrine All Star Reserve Join Date: Jun 2009 Location: Cary, North Carolina Posts: 635	I guess a couple of obvious questions to ask first are - did you change scouts recently, or did you change the scouting success rate in the game options - I've seen both of those have a dramatic effect on my prospects. I'm no scouting expert at all, but there are also other thinngs that go into scouting that can cause some drastic changes - however you seem to be getting some really big fluctuations. To me the best thing to do is ignore the star ratings for now and focus on how they are actually performing in the minors. In addition you can request a new scouting report on them and see what he is seeing - sometimes the star ratings just change on their own but the player may be the same underneath.

02-13-2013, 12:22 PM	#5
The Game Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2012 Location: Inside The Game Posts: 30,807	Did you change your scouting budget at all? Is it still the same as it was last year? I recently had 2 4.5 prospects drop to 1.5 star prospects this past offseason. I had forgot to up my scouting budget and many of my players took major hits. My main guy who was the #43 prospect overall is doing the best he has done so far at AA. OSA still has him at 4.5 stars. My other guy has been oft injured this year but also is having his best season so far at AA. OSA has him at 4 stars so he did drop off a a little. He was teh #54 prospect. Now i did have 2 prospects that jumped way up in the top 100. I had a CL who was moved to SP and is now the 15th ranked prospect (recently traded) and a SS who was #98 who is now #56. I still rank 15th of 16 overall for minors. Also with more time in your system players will fluctuate often.

02-13-2013, 12:43 PM	#6
BIG17EASY Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 3,291	Check your talent change randomness setting. The default setting is 100 (out of a possible 200). Some people have posted in the past that they feel 100 is too high. I have my leagues set at 60 and it seems pretty good. Also, as a few people mentioned above, pay attention to how the players are performing. Ratings can fluctuate throughout a prospect's career, so just because they went down doesn't mean they've flamed out. If a player's overall and potential ratings (the stars) drop, but they're still performing well, then you should continue to treat them like you would normally. When they start to perform poorly is when you might need to worry. And you can compare your scout's rating to the OSA ratings. If there's a big difference, there's a chance your scout is wrong in his evaluation (although the OSA could be wrong, as well).