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Old 03-25-2019, 04:37 PM   #141
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Yes, only statcast can tell us that a pop up that barely clears the the short left field wall down the line at Minute Maid that would have been a fly out anywhere else, or a routine fly the 25mph wind blew over the fence at Wrigely were cheap....oooook. Thank goodness for statcast, we never would have known. I'm sure the Giants didn't know that balls that went 260' for home runs at the Polo Grounds were cheap. They needed statcast to tell them that. Poor souls. I'm convinced!
I'm not talking about the Giants or the Astros or the Cubs. I'm talking about you or I doing this without watching each home run and each deep fly ball out that is a home run 90% of the time.

I continually am pouring through the statcast data on baseball savant's website. You give me a player name, and I can tell you a lot more than you can instantly, without having to go through every video of every at bat. I can tell you if he's slumping or unlucky or doing something completely unsustainable in any short amount of time, when sample sizes are too small to determine anything for regular statistics. I can find severely underperforming players and trade for them on a fantasy baseball team, knowing that his performance will almost assuredly improve. I can trade players who will never be able to keep up with what they are doing while their value is highest.

You go ahead and only read your box scores and see who is better informed between the two of us.
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Old 03-25-2019, 04:50 PM   #142
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The average distance the ball went is very useful because if he hits the ball 360' and my fence is 361' then I may think twice.
That particular batter's average exit velocity would be very helpful in this regard; if a guy averages 360 ft on his HR with an average exit velocity of 115 mph, those HR are line drives and likely to stay HR for quite a bit longer. A slower exit velocity, obviously, and you're looking at balls that might fall short of your 361 ft fence, as you said. Launch angle comes into play, too, but that's a whole different thread...
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Old 03-25-2019, 06:12 PM   #143
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I continually am pouring through the statcast data on baseball savant's website. You give me a player name, and I can tell you a lot more than you can instantly, without having to go through every video of every at bat. I can tell you if he's slumping or unlucky or doing something completely unsustainable in any short amount of time, when sample sizes are too small to determine anything for regular statistics. I can find severely underperforming players and trade for them on a fantasy baseball team, knowing that his performance will almost assuredly improve. I can trade players who will never be able to keep up with what they are doing while their value is highest.

Then you shouldn't be here, you should be the GM of a real big league club what with all of your knowledge of players from reading websites and your amazing ability to predict the future. I don't play fantasy baseball and never have, I did the real thing for most of my life. I enjoy watching baseball because I loved playing the game and appreciate the beauty of it. If I wanted to pour over stats all day I'd have become an actuary, not a pitcher. I'm in Chicago, I'm a Cub fan. I watch nearly every game because I love watching baseball so I saw most of Kris Bryant's season last year. I knew something was off with him because he wasn't hitting the ball as far as often. He had an injured shoulder, he clearly was not a 100%. Did I need statcast to tell me that? You tell me all knowing one because clearly watching a guy play all season and looking at his power numbers to date (drop off in HR rate and SLG% which I could look up in a few seconds) won't tell you what statcast will. In your world we must have EV or there'd no other way to see that Bryant was not hitting the ball as hard and as often as he was in the past because in your world there are no other tools that will tell you the same thing.



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You go ahead and only read your box scores and see who is better informed between the two of us.

Well clearly you are. I, on the other hand, apparently know nothing.
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Old 03-25-2019, 06:26 PM   #144
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That particular batter's average exit velocity would be very helpful in this regard; if a guy averages 360 ft on his HR with an average exit velocity of 115 mph, those HR are line drives and likely to stay HR for quite a bit longer. A slower exit velocity, obviously, and you're looking at balls that might fall short of your 361 ft fence, as you said. Launch angle comes into play, too, but that's a whole different thread...

If it's useful in this regard it's being used to augment other observations, which I've said over and over is something EV can do. I can also find out if the batter hits a lot of line drives simply by looking up his line drive rate, which is a kept statistic these days. I have average distance, I know the line drive rate. I know flat trajectory line drives necessarily must have more velocity than a fly ball with an arcing trajectory. EV stops being vital. It may be a nice shortcut for quick reference, but not vital, other data can tell the story too. If Amazon stopped sponsoring statcast (and you see the data on your TV screen because Amazon pays for the ad, not because you really need to know how far and how fast that home run went save for vanity window dressing), or it went away tomorrow for another reason, baseball life would go on because there are other tools in the box.
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Old 03-25-2019, 07:32 PM   #145
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this type of data is meant to be used in bulk.

And my point is if it went away tomorrow we can still come to confident conclusions about players and their ability to hit the ball hard because we have other tools. To give the example of Kris Bryant from another post, last year he had his lowest career home rate (way down from 2016). At the same time he hit doubles at a rate much higher than previous seasons. Given these two pieces of data, do you as a thinking logical intelligent person believe we can conclude that he wasn't hitting the ball as hard (still hard enough to find the gaps for doubles) and as often as before? Or, would you argue that we can only determine that Bryant wasn't hitting the ball as hard and often with AEV data, as there are no other tools at our disposal? If AEV showed a decline last year, all that data is doing is validating what we saw in other data. If you know the actual MPH down the tenth it won't change what the other data showed-a decline in power last year. In other words, AEV didn't tell what we didn't already know from other data.
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Old 03-25-2019, 07:39 PM   #146
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Originally Posted by Curve Ball Dave View Post
And my point is if it went away tomorrow we can still come to confident conclusions about players and their ability to hit the ball hard because we have other tools. To give the example of Kris Bryant from another post, last year he had his lowest career home rate (way down from 2016). At the same time he hit doubles at a rate much higher than previous seasons. Given these two pieces of data, do you as a thinking logical intelligent person believe we can conclude that he wasn't hitting the ball as hard (still hard enough to find the gaps for doubles) and as often as before? Or, would you argue that we can only determine that Bryant wasn't hitting the ball as hard and often with AEV data, as there are no other tools at our disposal? If AEV showed a decline last year, all that data is doing is validating what we saw in other data. If you know the actual MPH down the tenth it won't change what the other data showed-a decline in power last year. In other words, AEV didn't tell what we didn't already know from other data.
Well, to answer your question, it's definitely possible for a player's rate of home runs per at bat to decrease and their rate of doubles per at bat to increase and still be hitting the ball harder than they previously. Guess which readily available stat would easily show this to you? You guessed it - exit velocity. The likely reason for this scenario can be attributed to a lower launch angle than the base scenario. Something else you can't glean from a box score...but oh wait, I forgot you have the marvelous ability to watch (and recall) every at bat for every single player in MLB.

Thank you for proving my point.

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Old 03-25-2019, 07:48 PM   #147
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Well, to answer your question, it's definitely possible for a player's rate of home runs per at bat to decrease and their rate of doubles per at bat to increase and still be hitting the ball harder than normal. Guess which stat readily available at the tip of your fingers would show this to you? You guessed it - exit velocity. The likely reason for this scenario can be attributed to a lower launch angle than the base scenario. Something else you can't glean from a box score...but oh wait, I forgot you have the marvelous ability to watch (and recall) every at bat for every single player in MLB.

Unfortunately, in the case of Kris Bryant his stats predicted his exit velocity, not the other way around. As documented here Bryant's career low in HR rate was also accompanied by a career low in EV (85.8 compared to a career average of 88.1). Knowing the actual number simply validated the observation which I have said on numerous times EV can do. The conclusion that Bryant wasn't hitting the ball as hard as before was supported by data other than AEV, meaning knowing the actual AEV number was not vital. I concluded by his double rate he was hitting the ball hard enough to find the gaps, but not the fences-something I also observed watching him play but I guess an educated eye doesn't count anymore. I didn't know his AEV when I came to that conclusion, turns out I was right anyway. AEV validated my conclusion, it didn't lead me to it. Either that is the biggest bit of dumb luck on my part as I'm an old codger who doesn't understand how baseball is played and how to read data, or I have a smidgen of knowledge about the game of baseball, what to watch when you're looking at a hitter, and what data can tell you.
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Old 03-25-2019, 08:21 PM   #148
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Unfortunately, in the case of Kris Bryant his stats predicted his exit velocity, not the other way around. As documented here Bryant's career low in HR rate was also accompanied by a career low in EV (85.8 compared to a career average of 88.1). Knowing the actual number simply validated the observation which I have said on numerous times EV can do. The conclusion that Bryant wasn't hitting the ball as hard as before was supported by data other than AEV, meaning knowing the actual AEV number was not vital. I concluded by his double rate he was hitting the ball hard enough to find the gaps, but not the fences-something I also observed watching him play but I guess an educated eye doesn't count anymore. I didn't know his AEV when I came to that conclusion, turns out I was right anyway. AEV validated my conclusion, it didn't lead me to it. Either that is the biggest bit of dumb luck on my part as I'm an old codger who doesn't understand how baseball is played and how to read data, or I have a smidgen of knowledge about the game of baseball, what to watch when you're looking at a hitter, and what data can tell you.
First off, I was speaking in generalities to prove a point, that while it wasn't the case with Bryant, that it could very well happen with someone else.

Secondly, your entire argument is predicated on the notion that you have the time and ability to watch and recall every single plate appearance for a hitter (or hitters). Do you understand this?

How about if I, being a Yankee fan who watches maybe 10 regular season NL West games all year, want to see how a player in the NL West is performing power-wise as I would think he'd be a good trade target? What if his HR totals are moderately higher or lower than usual? Or what if there just isn't much data on him at all whether due to little service time/injuries, etc.? Wouldn't you admit Exit Velocity readings would be a pretty useful tool here, moreso than raw home run totals? In this scenario, lets say I'm a casual fan who has little visual or statistical history to work off but am interested in predicting what a player's power output will look like going forward. You think me randomly tuning in to a game to watch him play will be more informative than, say, a half-season's worth of Exit Velocity readings?

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Old 03-25-2019, 09:10 PM   #149
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Secondly, your entire argument is predicated on the notion that you have the time and ability to watch and recall every single plate appearance for a hitter (or hitters). Do you understand this?

Let's talk real life for a moment. General Managers, and or his people are up in the booth for every game. The manager and hitting coach are in the dugout for every game. All or some of these men are also watching video. There are also scouts in the choice seats behind home plate taking copious notes. So yes, there are people in baseball in real life who watch every inning of every game who make decisions on personnel. Now let's add a hypothetical player to the mix. He's a player who historically has not hit for power, strikes out rarely, and hits for high average. All of these men with trained eyes start observing that what were once line drives are now fly outs, sharp grounders that found holes for hits are now easy two or three hoppers for outs, and even if his strike out rate is the same his foul ball rate is up. The data backs the observations up as it shows a big drop in batting average. All of these observations are clear cut signs of a slowing bat, so the player isn't hitting the ball as hard. There is no other explanation. Knowing the AEV will no doubt show a decline in bat speed, meaning it validated the observation. But knowledge of the slow down in bat speed was known without AEV data. There are other tools in the box.



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How about if I, being a Yankee fan who watches maybe 10 regular season NL West games all year, want to see how a player in the NL West is performing power-wise as I would think he'd be a good trade target? What if his HR totals are moderately higher or lower than usual? Or what if there just isn't much data on him at all whether due to little service time/injuries, etc.? Wouldn't you admit Exit Velocity readings would be a pretty useful tool here, moreso than raw home run totals? In this scenario, lets say I'm a casual fan who has little visual or statistical history to work off but am interested in predicting what a player's power output will look like going forward. You think me randomly tuning in to a game to watch him play will be more informative than, say, a half-season's worth of Exit Velocity readings?

Well, fans in the real world don't make trades for Major League teams, but I'll say you're a Fantasy player. If there's little data on the player that means there's little statcast data too and small samples are unreliable. Let's say statcast doesn't exist so you don't know the AEV. Raw home run totals tell you nothing and never have, you need to know the number of at bats. That's just two pieces of information that you need. HR rate is a pencil and paper calculation at its hardest, in some cases you can eyeball it. If you never knew AEV ever existed you can still make a determination about the player as a power hitter from that HR rate. Just knowing the AEV and nothing else won't tell you anything, the player can simply be hitting very hard ground balls. You need the second piece of data which is the actual HR number. But if AEV never existed, all you need is AB and HR, two pieces of information that is just as easy to look up. AEV, while a quick reference, is not vital in this case.



I'm going to pick a player from history at random from when we didn't know AEV. His career HR rate is 1 per every 14.85 at bats. Doing some quick math in my head that's about 34 home runs in 500 at bats in a season, 40 HRs in 600 at bats. Now let's say he's playing today, we don't know his AEV because statcast doesn't exist, has the same HR rate and you want to know if he's a good power hitter worth trading for. Would you say that he is? Be honest.


BTW, that player is Manny Ramirez.


Sure AEV can help you get certain information very quickly. My point is if we didn't have it, never knew of statcast as it was never invented, all we had was other statistical data which was the case for over a 100 years, if you know what data to look at and how to read it even if you can't watch the player in person and on video, you can still come to accurate conclusions about how hard he hits the ball and how often. And because there are other tools at our disposal, AEV is not a vital stat.
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Old 03-25-2019, 09:33 PM   #150
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First off, I was speaking in generalities to prove a point, that while it wasn't the case with Bryant, that it could very well happen with someone else.

I forgot to address this. It could happen and likely does. One of the first things you learn when you study quantitative analysis is if you're data set shows 100% correlation there's something wrong with your data. That means you have exact multicollinearity and that's bad. That said, I would posit that if you put the data for all MLB batters into the computer you will find a very high correlation between HR rate regardless of how you measure it and AEV. There will be exceptions, there always are, but I would predict not many. And if you do find a batter with an exceptionally low AEV but high HR rate, and this has been consistent through time, anyone with experience in quantitative research knows there's something else going on, another variable (called confounding variables) that wasn't accounted for but had it been would have predicted the HR rate. I would also safely predict this kind of outlier being extremely rare. The real life example of Kris Bryant showed that HR rate (plus doubles rate) predicted AEV. Given that, knowing the former meant I didn't need to know the latter.

But what do I know, I'm an old ignorant codger.
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Old 03-25-2019, 10:06 PM   #151
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I'm an old ignorant codger.
Thanks for summing up the last 3 days
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Old 03-25-2019, 10:09 PM   #152
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Thanks for summing up the last 3 days

My pleasure. I have clearly demonstrated no knowledge of baseball and data analysis. You're welcome.
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Old 03-25-2019, 10:34 PM   #153
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My pleasure. I have clearly demonstrated no knowledge of baseball and data analysis. You're welcome.
You win the internet.
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Old 03-25-2019, 10:45 PM   #154
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You win the internet.

I accept on behalf of all of us ignorant old codgers. I share the award with them.
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Old 03-30-2019, 12:35 AM   #155
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And my point is if it went away tomorrow we can still come to confident conclusions about players and their ability to hit the ball hard because we have other tools. To give the example of Kris Bryant from another post, last year he had his lowest career home rate (way down from 2016). At the same time he hit doubles at a rate much higher than previous seasons. Given these two pieces of data, do you as a thinking logical intelligent person believe we can conclude that he wasn't hitting the ball as hard (still hard enough to find the gaps for doubles) and as often as before? Or, would you argue that we can only determine that Bryant wasn't hitting the ball as hard and often with AEV data, as there are no other tools at our disposal? If AEV showed a decline last year, all that data is doing is validating what we saw in other data. If you know the actual MPH down the tenth it won't change what the other data showed-a decline in power last year. In other words, AEV didn't tell what we didn't already know from other data.
so you'd rather use less basic knoweldge that is influenced by numerous other factors that can cloud and hide the reality of the situation, rather than the actual components and physics that make up a well-hit ball?

somewhat true, but far less accurate information for all the reasons i stated. no it isn't redundant. it is just more refined.

it tells us more, simple as that. it is more useful information when you break things down inot the smallest factors and know those factors with greater precision. there's a reason why clubs that have embraced intelligent analysis vs. traditional dogma are doing better.

this is how all of physics, chemistry and important sciences work... we couldn't predict the exact moment of an eclipse without understanding of the basics that cause that result. by understanding newton's three laws of energy and mass you can deduce many things you absolutely could never do with your eye. a human's perception is >1% of reality. that's always key to remember.. you see virtually nothing... you experience virtually nothing compared to the total of reality. our senses are horrendously incompetent.

there's no magic key or bullet... there is greater understanding and precision, which will undoubtedly result in better decisiosn... and when you are in a multi-billion dollar industry, there is good reason to dig deeper than your competition. it is a competitive advantage that will be revealed over time, but not necessarily in the short-term.

think of it as some idiot who refuses to take a two-strike approach and ends up not in the mlb in a few years... just a bit smarter and realistic and he might have stayed longer. 'winging' it with your eye is just as dumb when you have other better tools at your disposal.

would you use a themometer that's +/-5 degrees just because that's what you traditionally use because that's what your daddy taught you? or use the one with greater accuracy because it's important to your greenhouse to be more precise? that's basically what this decision is about... greater precision. greater accuracy of data.

will it matter all the time that the themostat is more accurate? no, but some portion of the time it will avoid problems or increase yields etc etc... that's the key... over time you make better decisions than your counterparts. you can only do that with proper data collection and proper data mining techniques -- which will involve those traditionalists if they break out of the bah-humbug confrontational nonsnese over things they don't quite understand. they are essential to proper implementation of any analytics department... they experience is essential to asking the right questions and providing the right data for each situation that they can use it.

you are basically looking at somethign that works better and more precisely and saying it doesn't matter... but over time it most certainly does. if you make 5% less mistakes than your counterparts you are going to dominate them over time or at least consistently better in some measureable way.

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Old 03-30-2019, 11:20 AM   #156
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Honestly, why would anybody turn down more information? If it's valid and useful, then why would you ever be against it?
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Old 03-30-2019, 02:25 PM   #157
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I hate when this crap happens. Can you guys just PM each other and fight in private instead of taking over a whole thread? Geez
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