Home | Webstore
Latest News: OOTP Update 20.6 - OOTP 20 Available - FHM 6 Available

FHM 6 Available Now!

  

Go Back   OOTP Developments Forums > Out of the Park Baseball 20 > OOTP 20 - General Discussions

OOTP 20 - General Discussions Everything about the newest version of Out of the Park Baseball - officially licensed by MLB.com and the MLBPA.

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old 03-22-2019, 02:10 PM   #101
zrog2000
All Star Starter
 
Join Date: Nov 2018
Posts: 1,347
Thanks: 584
Thanked 887x in 528 posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by Curve Ball Dave View Post
Yes, it says he's a big strong kid with a lot of potential, something anyone who has seen him play already knows.
It says he can hit the ball harder than just about everyone in the majors which is way more than that. And I said earlier that your eye can't see the difference between 105 and 115.
zrog2000 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-22-2019, 02:18 PM   #102
Curve Ball Dave
All Star Starter
 
Curve Ball Dave's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Chicago
Posts: 1,764
Thanks: 41
Thanked 917x in 514 posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by zrog2000 View Post
It says he can hit the ball harder than just about everyone in the majors which is way more than that. And I said earlier that your eye can't see the difference between 105 and 115.

Either way, knowing the actual EV or not, anyone who watches him play would know if he's a special talent if actually can hit a ball that hard. C'mon, use a little logic. Baseball people aren't that stupid, they know a talent like that when they see one. When Mickey Mantle was signed as a 17 year old of Oklahoma the Yankees didn't need to know his EV to know he was special.
__________________
"Hitting is timing. Pitching is upsetting timing"-Warren Spahn.
Curve Ball Dave is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-22-2019, 02:24 PM   #103
waittilnextyear
All Star Reserve
 
waittilnextyear's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 766
Thanks: 972
Thanked 865x in 387 posts
Just in case anyone is dropping into this thread like I just did...the first ~5 posts are useful. Then 5 pages of wall arguing with chair. Less useful.
waittilnextyear is offline   Reply With Quote
Thank you for this post:
torpidbeaver (03-22-2019)
Old 03-22-2019, 02:27 PM   #104
torpidbeaver
Major Leagues
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Posts: 325
Thanks: 56
Thanked 126x in 53 posts
Go to work and come home to this!

I don't understand how it's wrong or bad to want to know the exit velocities, so long as they're actually calculated using ratings and simulation, as I'm assuming OOTP would do.

I think it's fun, and can be informative! I'm looking forward to seeing if that line drive to the SS was a rocket or more of a looper. Right now, there's not much differentiation in-game.

Seems like it'd be easy to ignore, if you don't like it, but at this point I'm not sure if anyone's arguing against having it in game. [s
torpidbeaver is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-22-2019, 04:25 PM   #105
stiffy
Minors (Rookie Ball)
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 39
Thanks: 112
Thanked 16x in 12 posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by Curve Ball Dave View Post
Either way, knowing the actual EV or not, anyone who watches him play would know if he's a special talent if actually can hit a ball that hard. C'mon, use a little logic. Baseball people aren't that stupid, they know a talent like that when they see one. When Mickey Mantle was signed as a 17 year old of Oklahoma the Yankees didn't need to know his EV to know he was special.
And yet scouts are wrong about players all the time. Albert Pujols ended up in the 600 HR club and yet he went in the 13th round of the draft when he was 20 years old. You gonna tell me the scouts knew he could mash then? He got drafted, and immediately started crushing minor league pitching and mashed big league pitching the next year, so it's not like he took a long time to figure it out. I bet if there was exit velo data available from his college days he would've gone first round.

Mike Piazza is another example, maybe the greatest power hitting catcher of all time. He went 62nd round, so obviously scouts knew he'd have 400+ HR power, right?

If that's the case then how come the advent of Statcast has resulted in entirely new players becoming valuable and some that were highly valued in the past not being valued at all.

Almost as if the numbers give more insight than anything we've had before...

There's basically a minimum amount of exit velo you have to be able to reach to be a big leaguer. Sure, a scout's trained eye can tell you on the vast majority of players pretty immediately whether that's the case, but exit velo gives you more certainty to how close they are to ML level or how far they exceed it.
stiffy is offline   Reply With Quote
Thank you for this post:
zrog2000 (03-22-2019)
Old 03-22-2019, 05:47 PM   #106
Curve Ball Dave
All Star Starter
 
Curve Ball Dave's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Chicago
Posts: 1,764
Thanks: 41
Thanked 917x in 514 posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by stiffy View Post
And yet scouts are wrong about players all the time.

Take a look at say the past ten years. Big mistakes are still made in the draft and in free agent signings despite all of the data. Scouts are human, and so are the people who analyze data.
__________________
"Hitting is timing. Pitching is upsetting timing"-Warren Spahn.

Last edited by Curve Ball Dave; 03-22-2019 at 06:02 PM.
Curve Ball Dave is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-22-2019, 06:15 PM   #107
NoOne
Hall Of Famer
 
NoOne's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 6,701
Thanks: 715
Thanked 1,824x in 1,475 posts
ignoring it and other data is a great way never to improve.

while there may be diminishing returns, we are not to the point where our knowledge about baseball is so vast that it isn't worth studying.

without details and facts you are just stabbing in the dark. no one who actually uses this type of data properly is watching any particular 1 strike of the ball. that truly is useless information.

heaven forbid if we understand things in more detail. i think it's more a matter of habit. no one likes change. even when it's a good change.

nearly every argument as to why not to look at it in this thread is a logical fallacy. which is fine when it is entertainment. any real MLB org still ignoring data collection and data mining is falling further and further behind on the learning curve -- not unlike quality control in the automotive industry when the japanese companies adopted the "crazy" ideas of some american castoffs not limited to Deming. their competitive advantage was our own doing, and we are still ~20-30 years behind in quality control in that industry.

it's never about 1 hit. that's for fans -- just like the radar gun on pitches, but if you ignore the fact that a pitcher loses 5mph from his previous years of service, you are not doing yourself any favors.

you will see a drop in exit velocity due to a slower swing speed (assumes same weight bat -- mass x acceleration = force, standard weight of baseball allows us to calculate newtons of force from exit velocity... really really important data, in spite of numerous feelings above.)... it may not be as much of an influence in a drop in MPH for a pitch, but with further understanding it may help avoid decrapitating players getting overpaid.

not only that you'll be able to draw conclusions based on how consistently they transfer all those newtons to the ball from distribution. i've only taken 2 seconds to think about and have 2 good ideas of how to use it. i'm not even paid and only an amatuer statistician at best, lol.

this data is essential to understanding any hitter's profile.

Last edited by NoOne; 03-22-2019 at 06:19 PM.
NoOne is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-22-2019, 06:20 PM   #108
David Watts
Hall Of Famer
 
David Watts's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Looking for a place called Leehofooks
Posts: 6,467
Thanks: 4,457
Thanked 4,442x in 2,315 posts
Infractions: 0/1 (1)
Today's Tom Sawyer mean mean pride!
David Watts is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-22-2019, 06:24 PM   #109
Curve Ball Dave
All Star Starter
 
Curve Ball Dave's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Chicago
Posts: 1,764
Thanks: 41
Thanked 917x in 514 posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by stiffy View Post
Albert Pujols ended up in the 600 HR club and yet he went in the 13th round of the draft when he was 20 years old. You gonna tell me the scouts knew he could mash then?

Actually yes they did but there were questions about his actual age. He played at Maple Woods Community College where is no statcast now either.
__________________
"Hitting is timing. Pitching is upsetting timing"-Warren Spahn.
Curve Ball Dave is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-22-2019, 06:43 PM   #110
Curve Ball Dave
All Star Starter
 
Curve Ball Dave's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Chicago
Posts: 1,764
Thanks: 41
Thanked 917x in 514 posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by NoOne View Post

nearly every argument as to why not to look at it in this thread is a logical fallacy.
It's also a logical fallacy to say it's useful because everyone looks at it now. It's an ad populum fallacy. The argument is MLB teams look at it now, so it must be useful. There's a reason why that fallacy is also called the bandwagon fallacy.

My original question was never answered: What does it tell us that we didn't already know?

This is from Hank Aaron's book "I Had A Hammer, p.119", writing about Spring Training 1954 before he made the Braves major league roster.

"I cracked one over a row of trailers that bordered the outfield fence-hit it so hard that Ted Williams came running out of the clubhouse wanting to know who it was that could make a bat sound that way when it struck a baseball."

So had we have known the exit velocity of that hit, the evaluation of Aaron in 1954 would have changed...how? For that matter had statcast been around during the time Aaron played it wouldn't have made a dime's worth of difference. No thinking person would have thought any less of him if someone else had a higher average exit velocity.

My issue with advanced metrics and statcast data is the blind acceptance by some adherents without any critical thinking about what it's saying. It's on FanGraphs so hey, it must be valid. I'm sure the math is valid, but that still doesn't mean the data is giving us any new insight. How many different ways are there to say Jacob deGrom was really good last year and Tyler Chatwood wasn't? (even with a reliance on analytics the Cubs still made a huge mistake on Chatwood) No matter how you crunch the numbers, the results will be the same.

Data mining is useful, but that's not advanced analytics. That's simply breaking data down into distributions. Before the Cubs played the Mets in the 2015 NLCS it was pointed out the Cubs had the worst batting average against fastballs 95+. Given that the Mets had hard throwers, that told me the series wouldn't end well for the Cubs and it didn't.

I'm a firm believer in data mining. I have a relative who is brilliant data miner, it's how she makes her living. She also played volleyball in college. Her average spike velocity wasn't that important to know if no one ever blocked them.
__________________
"Hitting is timing. Pitching is upsetting timing"-Warren Spahn.

Last edited by Curve Ball Dave; 03-22-2019 at 07:17 PM.
Curve Ball Dave is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-22-2019, 07:23 PM   #111
CMH
Hall Of Famer
 
CMH's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: New York City
Posts: 5,057
Thanks: 268
Thanked 109x in 54 posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by Curve Ball Dave View Post

My original question was never answered: What does it tell us that we didn't already know?
.


I and others have already answered this. I personally stopped trying because you kept ignoring it or brushing it aside with an explanation that had nothing to do with the answers.

You were fixated on failures and I explained that a declining exit velocity would show that a player is slowing down long before you can observe it with the eyes or even see it in the old school statistics.

You have yet to give a sufficient example of how that isn't true. But I won't wait for it because you keep repeating the same thing that someone can just see it.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk
__________________
Formerly YankeePride
CMH is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-22-2019, 07:44 PM   #112
Curve Ball Dave
All Star Starter
 
Curve Ball Dave's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Chicago
Posts: 1,764
Thanks: 41
Thanked 917x in 514 posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by CMH View Post
.

You were fixated on failures and I explained that a declining exit velocity would show that a player is slowing down long before you can observe it with the eyes or even see it in the old school statistics.

And I've already explained that if a batter is slowing down it will show up. There's no way to lose bat speed without it showing up in stats, old school or otherwise.
__________________
"Hitting is timing. Pitching is upsetting timing"-Warren Spahn.
Curve Ball Dave is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-22-2019, 09:53 PM   #113
BirdWatcher
Hall Of Famer
 
BirdWatcher's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2018
Location: Denver, Colorado
Posts: 2,055
Thanks: 1,562
Thanked 807x in 565 posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by Curve Ball Dave View Post
And I've already explained that if a batter is slowing down it will show up. There's no way to lose bat speed without it showing up in stats, old school or otherwise.
Look, I'm claiming no particular expertise in this, but my sense from what I read in the field is that we are talking more about predictive value rather than after-the-fact analytic value. In other words, these are perhaps (and I say perhaps because, again, I am no expert, and because we might need more time and evidence to draw a solid conclusion) leading indicators. So yes, it will show up in the stats. Eventually. But sometimes eventually isn't soon enough in the ultra-competitive world of professional sports.

Should you and I, as (I presume) people who don't work in professional baseball, worry about it? Well, there is no reason we should feel obligated to. But for some of us it might just be another fun piece of the baseball puzzle that may have some small value and adds to our understanding or appreciation of the game in some way. And I think the reason many of us play a game like OOTP is to imagine the feeling of what it might be to actually be engaged in the enterprise of the baseball life and business.
It sounds like for your immersion in this fantasy, exit velocity is more con than pro. Fair enough. As I said, I can't see any reason why your life as a baseball fan would be any less rich if you just ignore it. But for others of us, this enhances that immersion. And I'm sure you have no desire to deny us that pleasure.
BirdWatcher is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-22-2019, 10:23 PM   #114
BronxBombers7
Minors (Rookie Ball)
 
BronxBombers7's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2019
Posts: 38
Thanks: 69
Thanked 27x in 14 posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by Markus Heinsohn View Post
Will be part of a patch, it will be listed in game logs and as a opup when you move the mouse over the hits on the spray chart in the player profile.
That's awesome! Just a suggestion but I think a small exit velocity indicator near the pitching speed indicator on the screen would be a welcome addition for everyone!
BronxBombers7 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-22-2019, 10:52 PM   #115
low
Hall Of Famer
 
low's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Wisconsin, USA
Posts: 3,210
Thanks: 1,014
Thanked 9,278x in 2,879 posts
Exit velocities and launch angles... Can't go 10 minutes through a broadcast without hearing about either now. It's cool if you like it, but I couldn't care less about it.
low is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-22-2019, 10:57 PM   #116
rudel.dietrich
Hall Of Famer
 
rudel.dietrich's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Zürich, Switzerland
Posts: 7,079
Thanks: 14
Thanked 1,021x in 580 posts
At of the end of the day it does not matter if a handful don't find it useful or believe it is useful.

All 30 MLB teams are already using launch angel and velocity along with pitch velocity at arm angle and spin rates.
Pandora's box has been opened and it does not matter than there are some who either don't understand or are too curmudgeonly to think it's ruining baseball, it is is being used as well as dozens of other obscure data points.
rudel.dietrich is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-23-2019, 11:47 AM   #117
BigT34
Bat Boy
 
Join Date: Mar 2019
Posts: 6
Thanks: 1
Thanked 1x in 1 post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Curve Ball Dave View Post
Seriously, let's say we knew Jimmy Foxx's average exit velocity. That would have told us what about him that we didn't already know?
This is simply the wrong question to be asking.

A good example of how Exit Velocity is useful:

Player A has a great season, hits 40 HRs and has a top-10 ISO.

The following year, Player A's HRs drop to 28 and his ISO drops.

You could look at exit velocity (including distribution) to try to help determine if he simply had some bad luck in year 2, or if there was really a reason to think his power output had dropped.

You're right, we don't need exit velocity to tell us that Jimmy Foxx was a great player. That's why it's not a relevant question.
BigT34 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-23-2019, 11:49 AM   #118
BigT34
Bat Boy
 
Join Date: Mar 2019
Posts: 6
Thanks: 1
Thanked 1x in 1 post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Curve Ball Dave View Post
And I've already explained that if a batter is slowing down it will show up. There's no way to lose bat speed without it showing up in stats, old school or otherwise.
Stats also contain noise, and can fluctuate to some degree with luck. BABIP being the most obvious example.

Exit velocity is useful because it provides an additional data point to try to understand the underlying fundamentals of changes in stats (or not!). It's a way of measuring contact quality. Now you can look at stats AND exit velocity to try to get a more total picture.

It's confusing to me why you're against having more information? Nobody wants to replace stats, it's just augmenting available information.
BigT34 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-23-2019, 12:14 PM   #119
Reed
All Star Reserve
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 931
Thanks: 128
Thanked 334x in 237 posts
I do believe exit velocity is a somewhat useful tool in real life but I am convinced it is just a cosmetic thing in OOTP like home run distance is basically a function of park dimensions. (If you set park dimension to 5,000 ft you will have the same # of home runs if you leave park factor the same. Home runs will be 5050 ft and exit velocity will 300 mph or some ridiculous number.)
Reed is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-23-2019, 12:30 PM   #120
Curve Ball Dave
All Star Starter
 
Curve Ball Dave's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Chicago
Posts: 1,764
Thanks: 41
Thanked 917x in 514 posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigT34 View Post

It's confusing to me why you're against having more information? Nobody wants to replace stats, it's just augmenting available information.

I'm not against having more information, and I agree that EV can augment available information. My point is that in of itself EV won't tell you anything you don't already know and is not a vital stat. If it went away tomorrow because Amazon stopped paying for the advertisement baseball life would go on and we'd still know who hits the ball hard often and who doesn't.
__________________
"Hitting is timing. Pitching is upsetting timing"-Warren Spahn.
Curve Ball Dave is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:50 AM.

 

Major League Baseball trademarks and copyrights are used with permission of MLB Advanced Media, L.P. Minor League Baseball trademarks and copyrights are used with the permission of Minor League Baseball. All rights reserved.

The Major League Baseball Players Association (www.MLBPLAYERS.com ) is the collective bargaining representative for all professional baseball players of the thirty Major League Baseball teams and serves as the exclusive group licensing agent for commercial and licensing activities involving active Major League baseball players. On behalf of its members, it operates the Players Choice licensing program and the Players Choice Awards, which benefit the needy through the Major League Baseball Players Trust, a charitable foundation established and run entirely by Major League baseball players. Follow: @MLB_Players; @MLBPAClubhouse; @MLBPlayersTrust

Out of the Park Baseball is a registered trademark of Out of the Park Developments GmbH & Co. KG

Google Play is a trademark of Google Inc.

Apple, iPhone, iPod touch and iPad are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.

COPYRIGHT © 2017 OUT OF THE PARK DEVELOPMENTS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

 

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.10
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright © 2018 Out of the Park Developments