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Old 03-22-2019, 11:19 AM   #21
Curve Ball Dave
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Quote:
Originally Posted by x McLovin x View Post
Let me pose a scenario for you: say you have two players with little historical information and service time, and to this point have approximately equal home run rates. Let's also say you are interested in acquiring players that have a higher chance of hitting more extra base hits/home runs in the future. Would you not consider those players' average exit velocities and average launch angles to be key variables in that assessment?

It depends I can look at video of the players' home runs. Balls hit farther are hit harder, that's simple physics. If one guy is hitting pop ups that fall an inch beyond a short fence in a hitter friend stadium and the other guy is hitting moonshots that would go out of any park, both easily visible to the naked eye, I'll say the latter player is more likely to hit home runs at a higher rate in the future all other variables constant. I really don't need to know the average exit velocities. Granted this is an extreme comparison. I'll grant that knowing the average exit velocity might help when comparing two very similar players and may verify your scouts' observations, but context is everything. I'd also look at his K rate and generally how often he swings and misses. You can't hit a home run if you can't hit the ball.



In the case of veteran players with a big sample size, average exit velocity is meaningless. You are what your record says you are.
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Old 03-22-2019, 11:22 AM   #22
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Originally Posted by zrog2000 View Post
I guess you could say that if you watched every single inning of every game and kept track of every hit ball to quantify anything at all. But not in OOTP since the animations don't directly correspond to reality.

Personally, I don't do that, so I prefer exit velocities which I will use to determine good or bad luck in small sample sizes. Just watching games isn't going to be as quantifiable as actual numbers over periods of time.
So if OOTP makes up a stat(because that's what it would be doing) telling you that Tom Veryzer is the all out exit velocity king, would you believe it?
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Old 03-22-2019, 11:23 AM   #23
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Originally Posted by Curve Ball Dave View Post
It depends I can look at video of the players' home runs. Balls hit farther are hit harder, that's simple physics. If one guy is hitting pop ups that fall an inch beyond a short fence in a hitter friend stadium and the other guy is hitting moonshots that would go out of any park, both easily visible to the naked eye, I'll say the latter player is more likely to hit home runs at a higher rate in the future all other variables constant. I really don't need to know the average exit velocities. Granted this is an extreme comparison. I'll grant that knowing the average exit velocity might help when comparing two very similar players, but context is everything. I'd also look at his K rate and generally how often he swings and misses. You can't hit a home run if you can't hit the ball.



In the case of veteran players with a big sample size, average exit velocity is meaningless. You are what your record says you are.
Why don't you want to know how veterans are playing in short sample sizes? Great veteran players can have abysmal numbers for a month or more. Do you not want to know if they're hitting the ball badly or if they are getting unlucky?

Are you also watching all the 410 foot line drive outs for those players?
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Old 03-22-2019, 11:24 AM   #24
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So if OOTP makes up a stat(because that's what it would be doing) telling you that Tom Veryzer is the all out exit velocity king, would you believe it?
Well that wouldn't happen unless they rated the card ridiculously inaccurately. I'm not sure what you're talking about with making up stats.
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Old 03-22-2019, 11:24 AM   #25
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Originally Posted by zrog2000 View Post
I guess you could say that if you watched every single inning of every game and kept track of every hit ball to quantify anything at all. But not in OOTP since the animations don't directly correspond to reality.

I'm talking real world application of the stat where you do have people who do watch every inning of every game.
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Old 03-22-2019, 11:26 AM   #26
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Originally Posted by Curve Ball Dave View Post
It depends I can look at video of the players' home runs. Balls hit farther are hit harder, that's simple physics. If one guy is hitting pop ups that fall an inch beyond a short fence in a hitter friend stadium and the other guy is hitting moonshots that would go out of any park, both easily visible to the naked eye, I'll say the latter player is more likely to hit home runs at a higher rate in the future all other variables constant. I really don't need to know the average exit velocities. Granted this is an extreme comparison. I'll grant that knowing the average exit velocity might help when comparing two very similar players, but context is everything. I'd also look at his K rate and generally how often he swings and misses. You can't hit a home run if you can't hit the ball.



In the case of veteran players with a big sample size, average exit velocity is meaningless. You are what your record says you are.
Just to confirm, you have enough time in your life to watch every batted ball instance for every player that ever existed? Otherwise, what is your basis for making these determinations other than anecdotal situations? You do realize that it's both frequency and magnitude right? I'd imagine not everyone has time to watch video of every homerun hit by every hitter ever, and that's disregarding the minor detail that this isn't even a possibility in OOTP, the game we're here to discuss. But lets continue with your example. How about players who hit a rocket at an outfielder on the warning track an unusually frequent number of times - your methodology would completely ignore this since you're only watching videos of home runs, right? It would simply be an 'out' and wouldn't give you the insight that some of those rockets can and will end up being home runs in the future.
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Old 03-22-2019, 11:27 AM   #27
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I'm talking real world application of the stat where you do have people who do watch every inning of every game.
So if I ask you if a player who just had a disappointing season had a bad year or an unlucky year, you can quantifiably tell me the answer without any data to back it up because you watched every inning of every game?

How?
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Old 03-22-2019, 11:27 AM   #28
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Well that wouldn't happen unless they rated the card ridiculously inaccurately. I'm not sure what you're talking about with making up stats.
So you really think OOTP knows what the exit velocity is of a Bobby Higginson home run? No it doesn't. It would simply assign a random velocity for pbp eye candy.
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Old 03-22-2019, 11:27 AM   #29
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Why don't you want to know how veterans are playing in short sample sizes? Great veteran players can have abysmal numbers for a month or more. Do you not want to know if they're hitting the ball badly or if they are getting unlucky?

If I want to know I can watch the video. Balls that used to be home runs that are warning track outs mean he isn't hitting the ball as hard. That could mean he's injured or simply declining. Knowing the actual velocity just puts a number on my observation.
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Old 03-22-2019, 11:29 AM   #30
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So you really think OOTP knows what the exit velocity is of a Bobby Higginson home run? No it doesn't. It would simply assign a random velocity for pbp eye candy.
Is that true? Or is it based on their ratings? I'd assume the latter.
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Old 03-22-2019, 11:30 AM   #31
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If I want to know I can watch the video. Balls that used to be home runs that are warning track outs mean he isn't hitting the ball as hard. That could mean he's injured or simply declining. Knowing the actual velocity just puts a number on my observation.
OK, so tell me whether Jackie Bradly Jr was unlucky or bad in May of 2018.

Also, exit velocity has a huge effect on non-home runs as well.

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Old 03-22-2019, 11:34 AM   #32
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Our minister keeps a hidden stat sheet of the exit velocity of church members.
I really do not see how it would be a useful stat in OOTP, maybe in real life to some extent. What effect does the pitcher speed have on exit velocity? Maybe there should be a stat on that.
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Old 03-22-2019, 11:38 AM   #33
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Our minister keeps a hidden stat sheet of the exit velocity of church members.
I really do not see how it would be a useful stat in OOTP, maybe in real life to some extent. What effect does the pitcher speed have on exit velocity? Maybe there should be a stat on that.
Does the minister know if that exit velocity increases during football season?
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Old 03-22-2019, 11:41 AM   #34
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So if I ask you if a player who just had a disappointing season had a bad year or an unlucky year, you can quantifiably tell me the answer without any data to back it up because you watched every inning of every game?

How?

Lets' say we have a batter who saw his home rate decline. We can look at his flyouts and strike outs and if both are up that can only mean he's lost bat speed and that's a very bad sign. He can't get around on pitches like he used to so he either flies out or strikes out. If only his strike outs are up that means pitchers have found the hole in his swing or the pitch he can't hit. That can possibly be corrected, we hope. If just his fly outs are up we know he's losing bat speed but can still make contact with the same pitches. In no case we need to know the exit velocity because the fly outs tell us that already.
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Old 03-22-2019, 11:44 AM   #35
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OK, so tell me whether Jackie Bradly Jr was unlucky or bad in May of 2018.

Considering how the rest of his season went he had a rough month. It can happen to anyone. You don't evaluate a player based on a four week stretch anyway.
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Old 03-22-2019, 11:48 AM   #36
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Lets' say we have a batter who saw his home rate decline. We can look at his flyouts and strike outs and if both are up that can only mean he's lost bat speed and that's a very bad sign. He can't get around on pitches like he used to so he either flies out or strikes out. If only his strike outs are up that means pitchers have found the hole in his swing or the pitch he can't hit. That can possibly be corrected, we hope. If just his fly outs are up we know he's losing bat speed but can still make contact with the same pitches. In no case we need to know the exit velocity because the fly outs tell us that already.
That isn't the only way performance fluctuates. He could have the same exact strikeout rate and hit .100 with no home runs while hitting the ball harder than ever over a full month. Only Statcast data can quantify that for you.
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Old 03-22-2019, 11:50 AM   #37
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That isn't the only way performance fluctuates. He could have the same exact strikeout rate and hit .100 with no home runs while hitting the ball harder than ever over a full month. Only Statcast data can quantify that for you.

It will quantify what you're seeing with your own two eyes. It's not telling you what you didn't know, it's just giving it a number. 4 weeks is too small of a sample to draw a conclusion anyway.
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Old 03-22-2019, 11:51 AM   #38
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Considering how the rest of his season went he had a rough month. It can happen to anyone. You don't evaluate a player based on a four week stretch anyway.
Fans evaluate players after every play.

For the record, JBJ had a historically unlucky month. He was hitting the ball super hard and got nothing to show for it. It was extremely easy to predict that he'd greatly improve because of his statcast data and he did.

Also, I have to assume that you watched every one of his at bats that month. What stood out for you?

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Old 03-22-2019, 11:52 AM   #39
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I'm talking real world application of the stat where you do have people who do watch every inning of every game.
Ignoring how that's physically impossible to do, who in your mind does this?

Taking this one step further, you are trying to apply this to people in baseball. You're right that managers and players know if a ball was hit hard. Fans don't always know that. And they don't always understand why someone's 0-5 wasn't cause for concern.

Hit velocity is another metric. Another way to view the beauty of everything in baseball.

Here's a better question than the first one since your answer would be ridiculous anyway (hint: no one watches every inning of every game):

If you love baseball so much, why do you want less information about the game than more?
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Old 03-22-2019, 11:52 AM   #40
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It will quantify what you're seeing with your own two eyes. It's not telling you what you didn't know, it's just giving it a number.
My memory probably isn't as perfect as yours is. I don't remember every single at bat for a player over a month. So I rely on actual numbers that do it for you.
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