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Old 03-22-2019, 11:54 AM   #41
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Originally Posted by Curve Ball Dave View Post
It will quantify what you're seeing with your own two eyes. It's not telling you what you didn't know, it's just giving it a number.
Your own two eyes that obviously had the time to watch (and remember) every single batted ball instance for that player (and every other player in MLB) and reach a conclusive determination for all of them. Right.

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Old 03-22-2019, 11:57 AM   #42
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Originally Posted by x McLovin x View Post
Your own two eyes that obviously had the time to watch every single batted ball instance for that player (and every other player in MLB).
And I also have to bring this up. How could anyone believe that they could evaluate every at bat for every player in a month and not write anything down while remembering everything and not allowing any bias into it?

People always remember things they want to remember more than things they want to forget. That is natural human behavior.
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Old 03-22-2019, 12:00 PM   #43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by x McLovin x View Post
Your own two eyes that obviously had the time to watch every single batted ball instance for that player (and every other player in MLB).
Quote:
Originally Posted by zrog2000 View Post
And I also have to bring this up. How could anyone believe that they could evaluate every at bat for every player in a month and not write anything down while remembering everything and not allowing any bias into it?

People always remember things they want to remember more than things they want to forget. That is natural human behavior.
He didn't and he couldn't and no one did.

He's trying to explain away a stat by using a fictional narrative. It's a perfect example of someone who doesn't want to take the time to understand why these "new" statistics are valuable.

"I can just watch the at-bat, argh!" Good job. So can anyone. Now can that at-bat help people understand how likely that result is to happen again? "Yeah, watch the next at-bat!"

It's trolling at this point.
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Old 03-22-2019, 12:01 PM   #44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by x McLovin x View Post
Your own two eyes that obviously had the time to watch every single batted ball instance for that player (and every other player in MLB).

That's how scouts earn their paychecks, by observing as much of the player's game as they can. Back in the day scouts saw that Joe Dimaggio couldn't catch up to high fastballs anymore because his bat slowed down. No knowledge of average exit velocity was needed, pitchers threw high fastballs in the zone and he kept missing them. Once that knowledge got around Joltin' Joe was as good as finished. These days all of that will be on video.
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Old 03-22-2019, 12:02 PM   #45
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He didn't and he couldn't and no one did.

He's trying to explain away a stat by using a fictional narrative. It's a perfect example of someone who doesn't want to take the time to understand why these "new" statistics are valuable.

"I can just watch the at-bat, argh!" Good job. So can anyone. Now can that at-bat help people understand how likely that result is to happen again? "Yeah, watch the next at-bat!"

It's trolling at this point.
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Old 03-22-2019, 12:03 PM   #46
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Curve Ball Dave View Post
It will quantify what you're seeing with your own two eyes. It's not telling you what you didn't know, it's just giving it a number. 4 weeks is too small of a sample to draw a conclusion anyway.
But wait, isn't that pretty much the same as with a very long standing statistic such as batting average?
I mean, I can watch games and see with my own eyes whether a guy gets a lot of hits or not. But somewhere along the line (very early) we decided it would be useful to actually measure the rate of these hits falling safely compared to the number of at-bats the hitter accumulated. I wouldn't have needed a batting average to tell me Ted Williams got a ton of hits, per at-bat, in 1941. But baseball is a sport where we value a level of statistical precision, so I know that he hit .406 that season. (Okay, that isn't the precise number, but at some point we have to round numbers so it doesn't get out of hand.)
Now there can be lots of debates about how important a number batting average is and what the limitations are on the value we can glean from this number. But we still find value in knowing the number, not just leaving it to our eyes to tell us a guy gets a lot of hits or another guy gets fewer hits.
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Old 03-22-2019, 12:05 PM   #47
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But wait, isn't that pretty much the same as with a very long standing statistic such as batting average?
I mean, I can watch games and see with my own eyes whether a guy gets a lot of hits or not. But somewhere along the line (very early) we decided it would be useful to actually measure the rate of these hits falling safely compared to the number of at-bats the hitter accumulated. I wouldn't have needed a batting average to tell me Ted Williams got a ton of hits, per at-bat, in 1941. But baseball is a sport where we value a level of statistical precision, so I know that he hit .406 that season. (Okay, that isn't the precise number, but at some point we have to round numbers so it doesn't get out of hand.)
Now there can be lots of debates about how important a number batting average is and what the limitations are on the value we can glean from this number. But we still find value in knowing the number, not just leaving it to our eyes to tell us a guy gets a lot of hits or another guy gets fewer hits.
This. Times a million. Perfect analogy.
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Old 03-22-2019, 12:07 PM   #48
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So you really think OOTP knows what the exit velocity is of a Bobby Higginson home run? No it doesn't. It would simply assign a random velocity for pbp eye candy.
As it applies to OOTP, this is a good statement. Why didn't you just ask the developers this question instead of posing it as a confrontational opinion about hit velocity in the game of baseball?

I too would like to know how OOTP is calculating hit velocity and how can I use this information when evaluating a player.

In the real world, I can use hit velocity to probably predict if a player is going to get out of a bad luck streak. Can I do the same in OOTP? Can I see a rising hit velocity and accurately predict that my player might be getting out of his cold streak soon?
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Old 03-22-2019, 12:09 PM   #49
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To echo what was said by CMH, it seems silly to me that any baseball fan could be upset about the possibility of having more data to look at and bring in for analysis! Would you have said the same things about radar guns being introduced and opening up the gates for pitcher's speed data?
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Old 03-22-2019, 12:11 PM   #50
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Originally Posted by Curve Ball Dave View Post
Back in the day scouts saw that Joe Dimaggio couldn't catch up to high fastballs anymore because his bat slowed down.

You know what could have told them this faster? Exit Velocity from the at-bats prior to this revelation. Because I bet DiMaggio's exit velocity was creeping down for some time before some scout said, "Ya know, I think Joe's having a bit of trouble hitting that high fastball there."

Exit Velocity would have told them that DiMaggio's bat was slowing down even on the regular hits where he made solid contact.
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Old 03-22-2019, 12:11 PM   #51
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It's trolling at this point.

Or your own rejection of a challenge to your views. You can't refute with any facts or logic, so you call it a "troll". Statcast is a paid advertisement for Amazon. You accept the numbers as meaningful and telling us things we previously didn't know without any critical assessment.
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Old 03-22-2019, 12:14 PM   #52
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You know what could have told them this faster? Exit Velocity from the at-bats prior to this revelation....


...Exit Velocity would have told them that DiMaggio's bat was slowing down even on the regular hits where he made solid contact.

You're right, it would have. Exit velocity would have been a verification of the observation, it would not have uncovered something previously unseen which is my point. Exit velocity doesn't tell us what we didn't know, it simply puts a number on it.
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Old 03-22-2019, 12:14 PM   #53
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This is an inane conversation to be having. Every single MLB club looks at exit velocity (and a host of Statcast metrics), because they usefully correlate with baseball outcomes and help them make informed—and ultimately profitable—decisions.

If you find it galling that someone would dare to measure or discuss the exit velocity of [insert sainted hitter of the game], I don't know what to tell ya.
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Old 03-22-2019, 12:16 PM   #54
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Originally Posted by Curve Ball Dave View Post
Or your own rejection of a challenge to your views. You can't refute with any facts or logic, so you call it a "troll". Statcast is a paid advertisement for Amazon. You accept the numbers as meaningful and telling us things we previously didn't know without any critical assessment.
You misunderstand me.

Saying that you watch every at-bat and don't need any statistics to tell you what you already see is indeed trolling. This is not a fact you're stating. You're simply lying.
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Old 03-22-2019, 12:18 PM   #55
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That's how scouts earn their paychecks, by observing as much of the player's game as they can. Back in the day scouts saw that Joe Dimaggio couldn't catch up to high fastballs anymore because his bat slowed down. No knowledge of average exit velocity was needed, pitchers threw high fastballs in the zone and he kept missing them. Once that knowledge got around Joltin' Joe was as good as finished. These days all of that will be on video.
I bet scouts keep notes and even look at statcast data these days.

Statcast data also gives teams players to scout.
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Old 03-22-2019, 12:19 PM   #56
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You're right, it would have. Exit velocity would have been a verification of the observation, it would not have uncovered something previously unseen which is my point. Exit velocity doesn't tell us what we didn't know, it simply puts a number on it.
You misunderstood again.

DiMaggio making solid contact a year prior would have been ignored in your example. You stated that DiMaggio missing high fastballs was verification that his bat was slowing down. As a result, scouts told pitchers to start throwing the high fastball.

Exit velocity would have told scouts that even on solid hits, DiMaggio's bat is slowing down. You should start challenging him more with the high fastball.

You're using the observation of a failure to prove statistical analysis was unwarranted. I'm telling you that statistical analysis would have predicted the observation.
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Old 03-22-2019, 12:21 PM   #57
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To echo what was said by CMH, it seems silly to me that any baseball fan could be upset about the possibility of having more data to look at and bring in for analysis! Would you have said the same things about radar guns being introduced and opening up the gates for pitcher's speed data?

More data doesn't always mean meaningful data that tells us new things. Radar guns put numbers on things. It will tell us how fast Jordan Hicks throws, not that he throws fast.
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Old 03-22-2019, 12:21 PM   #58
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But wait, isn't that pretty much the same as with a very long standing statistic such as batting average?
I mean, I can watch games and see with my own eyes whether a guy gets a lot of hits or not. But somewhere along the line (very early) we decided it would be useful to actually measure the rate of these hits falling safely compared to the number of at-bats the hitter accumulated. I wouldn't have needed a batting average to tell me Ted Williams got a ton of hits, per at-bat, in 1941. But baseball is a sport where we value a level of statistical precision, so I know that he hit .406 that season. (Okay, that isn't the precise number, but at some point we have to round numbers so it doesn't get out of hand.)
Now there can be lots of debates about how important a number batting average is and what the limitations are on the value we can glean from this number. But we still find value in knowing the number, not just leaving it to our eyes to tell us a guy gets a lot of hits or another guy gets fewer hits.
There's no way they'll argue with this.
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Old 03-22-2019, 12:22 PM   #59
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You misunderstand me.

Saying that you watch every at-bat and don't need any statistics to tell you what you already see is indeed trolling. This is not a fact you're stating. You're simply lying.
You're not helping things by calling him a troll. Let's keep the discussion civil. Thanks.
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Old 03-22-2019, 12:23 PM   #60
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I can't wait until OOTP has xOBA.
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