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OOTP 19 - Historical Simulations Discuss historical simulations and their results in this forum.

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Old 04-20-2018, 01:57 PM   #1
italyprof
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Constructing a narrative for a random debut league

Many of us enjoy the storytelling that implicitly goes with changing baseball history, especially with the creation of a random debut historical league.

David Watts is especially good at this.

I have recently created random debut league after random debut league because the players offered in inaugural drafts and the team I drafted just didn't feel right. They weren't fun for me. I know that is stupid, since if you play 100 years all kinds of players will come and go. But that is emotionally how I connect to this game.

I created a random debut league in 1947 but with 1978 historical league parameters.

I ran the Yankees, changed all the stadiums for all teams, using the current stadiums available in the game (I still have not been able to access the historical stadiums for historical leagues - any news or advice on that?).

My team was middling, I thought, which I like, since I get bored with immediate winners, and get frustrated if a team is dramatically underperforming (I had one team where an aging but according to RL stats still capable Ernie Banks hit like .143 but that was with neutralized stats which I think are not working well).

I had Chris Chambliss at first base, Bobby Murcer in right, and Roy White in left, so for a Yankees fan this was a nice team. Tommy Davis was the other notable player, in center. An aging - last full-time season - Omar Vizquel as short, Jerry Lumpe at second, Bill Fahey behind the plate, Gil McDougal at third.

The pitching staff had three good but not great starters - Chris Archer, Jim Perry, and Sad Sam Jones. For the other two starters, I relied on two late picks, in more sense than one: 37-year old Bob Feller and 37-year old Three-Finger Brown. I hoped the old boys had enough left in the tank to be useful fourth and fifth starters.

No luck. The gap between the Overall and Potential ratings probably set a record. They each got shelled in every early start. My bullpen was okay - Ron Klimkowski as stopper, Ace Adams set up. Joe Hevrey, okay but not world-beating. So I needed starters to go 7 innings regularly.

I called up Snake Wilte, age 29 - apparently a late bloomer. He did respectably-poorly - an ERA over 5.00 on the year. But at least he pitched some innings.

My fourth starter I traded for, and this is where the season narrative begins. Desperate I traded an okay SS prospect in AAA, Donnie Hill - remember I have Vizquel at SS and he is old, though the old by hit .268 on the year and fielded as well as ever, for Bill Kreuger, age 34. The last year he has starter stats. And not great ones, but I couldn't get anyone better.

Kreuger ended up as our team MVP, the real story of the season. We took off only after getting him, moving from the cellar of the American league to the middle, and somehow, in September, pulled out all stops and passed the Senators to win the AL by four games. Granted, our record was only 89-65, a measure of a competitive league. But we were AL pennant winners.

Kreuger went 18-8 with a 3.60 ERA. The other three main starters had similar ERAs, so a well-balanced staff, but none won as many games for us.

We go into the Series against Cincinnati. A pretty even match - they won 88 games winning the NL and are led by Cal Ripkin Jr. and NL batting champion Jonathan Schoop. Their main pitchers are Dontrelle Willis, Tim Wakefield, and Hisashi Iwakuma. Isn't that a Series you would like to see?

We won the Series in six games, very tough games. Games two and three were 1-0 - with Kreuger outpitching Wakefield, and a Roy White homer being the difference, and Jim Perry outlasting Willis.

We had to come from behind in game six to win in 10 innings. Great Series.

But..the narrative continues - we had a chance to clinch in four games, but went to the well too many times. Kreuger got shelled in game four, and used in relief when we had the lead early in game six gave up the tying and go ahead runs. I had come to rely on him. But we got through it.

My dilemma, of course, is that we WON the World Series in the first season of the league. I hate when that happens.

But...I might stick with this team because:

1. Kreuger's RL stats don't show him being able to do the same in the future. Likely we need another starter. Wiltse will be good for one year presumably (playing with real stats, 3-year recalc) and give innings for another. And the main three starters are not Cy Young candidates anyway. We won with balance, not stars at least pitching-wise.

2. Vizquel's backup is good field, no hit Angel Salazar, so at SS we are relying on committee and hoping for the best.

3. I made one real error. When I changed ballparks - putting the Yankees in Yankee Stadium of today, Red Sox in Fenway, Giants, Dodgers, Tigers, etc. in the stadiums their franchises play in today (Browns in Camden Yards), I did not neutralize the ballparks.

Bobby Murcer is a very good player. Bobby Murcer in Yankee Stadium is a real power threat. Bobby Murcer in the amusement park that is called Yankee Stadium today is a superstar, and Bobby Murcer WITH Yankee Stadium right-field porch stats already incorporate and THEN put to play in today's Yankee Stadium is a monster.

So I am going to neutralize the ballparks. I wanted the aesthetic experience of the parks mostly, and while more realistic would be to play with neutralized stats and using the ballpark factors, neutralized stats keeps ending up with an awful lot of ridiculous things: Cookie Rojas led the league in batting but Ernie Banks had to be sent down to AAA.

But neutralizing the parks will make the Yankees left-handed lineup face more of a challenge. So I will mentally start the second season as if it were the first.

It is really fun, with the new 3D and enlarged players at 170, in the real ballparks ( I would still rather play in Ebbets, Polo Grounds, old Yankee Stadium, Shea - how do I download and make useable the old ballparks? step-by-step, and in what format that my computer can open and read?) to see Omar Vizquel or Cal Ripken Jr. make a great play at short, or Chris Chambliss run out a double, or Chris Archer pitch to Jonathan Schoop and get a double play with the game on the line.

And more fun when you feel like a real team had a real story to tell for the season.
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Old 04-20-2018, 02:43 PM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by italyprof View Post
Many of us enjoy the storytelling that implicitly goes with changing baseball history, especially with the creation of a random debut historical league.

David Watts is especially good at this.

I have recently created random debut league after random debut league because the players offered in inaugural drafts and the team I drafted just didn't feel right. They weren't fun for me. I know that is stupid, since if you play 100 years all kinds of players will come and go. But that is emotionally how I connect to this game.

I created a random debut league in 1947 but with 1978 historical league parameters.

I ran the Yankees, changed all the stadiums for all teams, using the current stadiums available in the game (I still have not been able to access the historical stadiums for historical leagues - any news or advice on that?).

My team was middling, I thought, which I like, since I get bored with immediate winners, and get frustrated if a team is dramatically underperforming (I had one team where an aging but according to RL stats still capable Ernie Banks hit like .143 but that was with neutralized stats which I think are not working well).

I had Chris Chambliss at first base, Bobby Murcer in right, and Roy White in left, so for a Yankees fan this was a nice team. Tommy Davis was the other notable player, in center. An aging - last full-time season - Omar Vizquel as short, Jerry Lumpe at second, Bill Fahey behind the plate, Gil McDougal at third.

The pitching staff had three good but not great starters - Chris Archer, Jim Perry, and Sad Sam Jones. For the other two starters, I relied on two late picks, in more sense than one: 37-year old Bob Feller and 37-year old Three-Finger Brown. I hoped the old boys had enough left in the tank to be useful fourth and fifth starters.

No luck. The gap between the Overall and Potential ratings probably set a record. They each got shelled in every early start. My bullpen was okay - Ron Klimkowski as stopper, Ace Adams set up. Joe Hevrey, okay but not world-beating. So I needed starters to go 7 innings regularly.

I called up Snake Wilte, age 29 - apparently a late bloomer. He did respectably-poorly - an ERA over 5.00 on the year. But at least he pitched some innings.

My fourth starter I traded for, and this is where the season narrative begins. Desperate I traded an okay SS prospect in AAA, Donnie Hill - remember I have Vizquel at SS and he is old, though the old by hit .268 on the year and fielded as well as ever, for Bill Kreuger, age 34. The last year he has starter stats. And not great ones, but I couldn't get anyone better.

Kreuger ended up as our team MVP, the real story of the season. We took off only after getting him, moving from the cellar of the American league to the middle, and somehow, in September, pulled out all stops and passed the Senators to win the AL by four games. Granted, our record was only 89-65, a measure of a competitive league. But we were AL pennant winners.

Kreuger went 18-8 with a 3.60 ERA. The other three main starters had similar ERAs, so a well-balanced staff, but none won as many games for us.

We go into the Series against Cincinnati. A pretty even match - they won 88 games winning the NL and are led by Cal Ripkin Jr. and NL batting champion Jonathan Schoop. Their main pitchers are Dontrelle Willis, Tim Wakefield, and Hisashi Iwakuma. Isn't that a Series you would like to see?

We won the Series in six games, very tough games. Games two and three were 1-0 - with Kreuger outpitching Wakefield, and a Roy White homer being the difference, and Jim Perry outlasting Willis.

We had to come from behind in game six to win in 10 innings. Great Series.

But..the narrative continues - we had a chance to clinch in four games, but went to the well too many times. Kreuger got shelled in game four, and used in relief when we had the lead early in game six gave up the tying and go ahead runs. I had come to rely on him. But we got through it.

My dilemma, of course, is that we WON the World Series in the first season of the league. I hate when that happens.

But...I might stick with this team because:

1. Kreuger's RL stats don't show him being able to do the same in the future. Likely we need another starter. Wiltse will be good for one year presumably (playing with real stats, 3-year recalc) and give innings for another. And the main three starters are not Cy Young candidates anyway. We won with balance, not stars at least pitching-wise.

2. Vizquel's backup is good field, no hit Angel Salazar, so at SS we are relying on committee and hoping for the best.

3. I made one real error. When I changed ballparks - putting the Yankees in Yankee Stadium of today, Red Sox in Fenway, Giants, Dodgers, Tigers, etc. in the stadiums their franchises play in today (Browns in Camden Yards), I did not neutralize the ballparks.

Bobby Murcer is a very good player. Bobby Murcer in Yankee Stadium is a real power threat. Bobby Murcer in the amusement park that is called Yankee Stadium today is a superstar, and Bobby Murcer WITH Yankee Stadium right-field porch stats already incorporate and THEN put to play in today's Yankee Stadium is a monster.

So I am going to neutralize the ballparks. I wanted the aesthetic experience of the parks mostly, and while more realistic would be to play with neutralized stats and using the ballpark factors, neutralized stats keeps ending up with an awful lot of ridiculous things: Cookie Rojas led the league in batting but Ernie Banks had to be sent down to AAA.

But neutralizing the parks will make the Yankees left-handed lineup face more of a challenge. So I will mentally start the second season as if it were the first.

It is really fun, with the new 3D and enlarged players at 170, in the real ballparks ( I would still rather play in Ebbets, Polo Grounds, old Yankee Stadium, Shea - how do I download and make useable the old ballparks? step-by-step, and in what format that my computer can open and read?) to see Omar Vizquel or Cal Ripken Jr. make a great play at short, or Chris Chambliss run out a double, or Chris Archer pitch to Jonathan Schoop and get a double play with the game on the line.

And more fun when you feel like a real team had a real story to tell for the season.
Very cool. I love it. The part at the beginning about starting leagues and just not liking the mix of players is something that hits home. I have done that very thing.
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Old 04-20-2018, 03:47 PM   #3
JaBurns
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What are the steps to neutralize the ballparks? I like the idea of a home field advantage but I would like to know how to do it once the Historical ballparks are available in 19. I also use Real Stats with 5 year recalc based on remaining seasons of career. Would any of theses settings affect setting ballparks at neutral?
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Old 04-20-2018, 04:30 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by JaBurns View Post
What are the steps to neutralize the ballparks? I like the idea of a home field advantage but I would like to know how to do it once the Historical ballparks are available in 19. I also use Real Stats with 5 year recalc based on remaining seasons of career. Would any of theses settings affect setting ballparks at neutral?
Just go to any team and click on "Team Settings". On the right of the team settings page you will see "Edit Park".

When you get to the edit park page, you click on "Actions" on the right, and one of the options from the drop-down arrow is "Assign neutral factors to all ballparks".
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