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OOTP 19 - Historical Simulations Discuss historical simulations and their results in this forum.

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Old 04-05-2018, 11:07 PM   #1
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Negro League Teams / Players

Has anyone else tried integrating Negro League teams and/or players into a historical season?

When I was a kid I had Strat-O-Matic, but then I bought a tabletop game called Extra Innings that was a lot more complex and longer to play, but was way more accurate. Plus they gave you the formulas to create your own historical players. I'm a week into OOTP and I love the possibilities with this software - it's like Extra Innings on steroids lol.

I've run through a number of different scenarios to get my chops up, and still figuring things out, but this is the best thirty-five bucks I've spent in awhile! Just like to compare some notes.
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Old 04-06-2018, 01:17 AM   #2
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The negro leagues of the 20's-40's are in the game along with thousands of negro league players. Just enable the minor leagues.
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Old 04-06-2018, 02:27 PM   #3
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I think Negro League players from past the 20's-40's are in the Spritze Player Pack (i.e., Database), along with Japanese players. But franky, I haven't liked what I've seen when encountering these guys, because they seem to be rated too powerfully. I have no idea how the ratings were done for them.
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Old 04-06-2018, 02:34 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by warneke View Post
I think Negro League players from past the 20's-40's are in the Spritze Player Pack No (i.e., Database), along with Japanese players Yes. But franky, I haven't liked what I've seen when encountering these guys, because they seem to be rated too powerfully. I have no idea how the ratings were done for them.
The Spritze database ratings are all MLE's.
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Old 04-06-2018, 03:01 PM   #5
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The negro leagues of the 20's-40's are in the game along with thousands of negro league players. Just enable the minor leagues.
That's the reason why I purchased OOTP - great work, btw.

I'm currently running a "test" game of the 1933 season to get familiar with the software and I'm about 20 games into the season so far. I kept four Negro League teams and had a free agent draft with the remaining players. I moved those four teams up to the MLB and split both leagues (AL & NL) into East & West divisions with 20 teams total. Have a couple questions/issues:
  • How can I edit the players "Expectation" mode from Starter to Bench (and vice versa)? I don't see a way to do that in the player editor mode. When I simulate a series a lot of the players in the starting lineup wind up on the bench.
  • The 1933 NEL did not include the Independent League with the Philadelphia Stars - what is the best way to create those players?
  • I tried making up fictional players figuring that I could edit their names, stats, etc., but cannot find them on the free agent list.
  • Would it be easier to just clone similar players then edit them?
Thanks!
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Old 04-06-2018, 06:54 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mutineer View Post
That's the reason why I purchased OOTP - great work, btw.

I'm currently running a "test" game of the 1933 season to get familiar with the software and I'm about 20 games into the season so far. I kept four Negro League teams and had a free agent draft with the remaining players. I moved those four teams up to the MLB and split both leagues (AL & NL) into East & West divisions with 20 teams total. Have a couple questions/issues:
  • How can I edit the players "Expectation" mode from Starter to Bench (and vice versa)? I don't see a way to do that in the player editor mode. When I simulate a series a lot of the players in the starting lineup wind up on the bench. Unknown
  • The 1933 NEL did not include the Independent League with the Philadelphia Stars - what is the best way to create those players? The players are already there even though the team is not
  • I tried making up fictional players figuring that I could edit their names, stats, etc., but cannot find them on the free agent list. Moot
  • Would it be easier to just clone similar players then edit them? Also moot
Thanks!
Thou are welcome.
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Old 04-06-2018, 10:42 PM   #7
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The Spritze database ratings are all MLE's.
Have no idea what an MLE is.
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Old 04-06-2018, 10:44 PM   #8
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And it does not know what a warneke is so you are even.
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Old 04-08-2018, 01:31 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mutineer View Post
I tried making up fictional players figuring that I could edit their names, stats, etc., but cannot find them on the free agent list.

Would it be easier to just clone similar players then edit them?
Thanks!
if you create fictional players, they can only go one of two places - Free Agency or draft pool.
If you clone a player, he can only go to Free Agency.

when you create players, be certain to either have a good memory of the name the game creates, or write it down somewhere. They tend to get jumbled with others if you have a large FA pool already. i wish we could enter the name we want when the player is created, as we can his position, country etc. But alas, it ain't happened and the old pen and paper work pretty good still.
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Old 04-08-2018, 04:05 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mutineer View Post
[*]The 1933 NEL did not include the Independent League with the Philadelphia Stars - what is the best way to create those players?
[*]I tried making up fictional players figuring that I could edit their names, stats, etc., but cannot find them on the free agent list.
[*]Would it be easier to just clone similar players then edit them?

Thanks!
Since the Philadelphia Stars players are already in the game you will create duplicate players doing this. I'd just look up the ones already in game and start there?
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Old 04-08-2018, 06:03 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by Spritze View Post
Since the Philadelphia Stars players are already in the game you will create duplicate players doing this. I'd just look up the ones already in game and start there?
I'm setting up new game with the same season again, setting everything up identical to the first run through, but I'm not having any luck finding any of these players, where should I be looking?

There's just a few I want as starters on the four Negro League teams:

Jud Wilson
Rap Nixon
Jake Stephens
Paul Carter
Walter Cannady
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Old 04-08-2018, 06:05 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by mitchkenn View Post
if you create fictional players, they can only go one of two places - Free Agency or draft pool.
If you clone a player, he can only go to Free Agency.

when you create players, be certain to either have a good memory of the name the game creates, or write it down somewhere. They tend to get jumbled with others if you have a large FA pool already. i wish we could enter the name we want when the player is created, as we can his position, country etc. But alas, it ain't happened and the old pen and paper work pretty good still.
I have my trusty yellow pad nearby at all times! I'm more of a jump in and swim type, than reading directions, so I need lots of notes as a navigate through this software.
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Old 04-08-2018, 06:38 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mutineer View Post
I'm setting up new game with the same season again, setting everything up identical to the first run through, but I'm not having any luck finding any of these players, where should I be looking?

There's just a few I want as starters on the four Negro League teams:

Jud Wilson
Rap Nixon
Jake Stephens
Paul Carter
Walter Cannady
all these players are in the database. They are in the minor league database, as Negro Leagues are entered in the game as a minor league. (Take that up with powers greater than myself.)
i searched for them in the MiLB .csv file and these are the years they are set to appear in the game.

Jud Wilson - 1922
Rap Nixon - did you mean Rap Dixon? - 1924
Jake Stephens - 1921
Paul Carter - 1923
Walter Cannady - 1921

if they are not appearing, it may have to do with the color barrier being on, and the fact you placed those teams to a major league level. (If i recall correctly, the game will put those teams back to Negro Leagues after your current year, if you are playing historically.) If you take the color barrier off, all the leagues will be integrated. Do you have Rookies set to appear historically (or something like that)? Do you have them set to appear on real teams or to go to Free agency? If you change the teams to Major League, the game may not find them as Negro League players in minors. i don't know. Never tested for that. if you are starting in 1933, don't have historical minors enabled, and league evolution enabled, and don't have past history set-up when you created the game, it's possible these players will not be present. That's something i've never tested for, so can't answer in the definitive. Lots of places to look and to have something set so they aren't appearing. Dunno. Hope this helps you try to find a solution.
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"I saw a young man leaning on his wooden crutch - He called out to me, 'Don't ask for so much' And a young woman leaning in her darkened door She cried out to me, 'Why not ask for more?' " - Leonard Cohen
Before Mays, before DiMaggio, there was Oscar Charleston.
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Last edited by mitchkenn; 04-08-2018 at 06:45 PM.
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Old 04-08-2018, 08:15 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by mitchkenn View Post
all these players are in the database. They are in the minor league database, as Negro Leagues are entered in the game as a minor league. (Take that up with powers greater than myself.)
i searched for them in the MiLB .csv file and these are the years they are set to appear in the game.

Jud Wilson - 1922
Rap Nixon - did you mean Rap Dixon? - 1924
Jake Stephens - 1921
Paul Carter - 1923
Walter Cannady - 1921

if they are not appearing, it may have to do with the color barrier being on, and the fact you placed those teams to a major league level. (If i recall correctly, the game will put those teams back to Negro Leagues after your current year, if you are playing historically.) If you take the color barrier off, all the leagues will be integrated. Do you have Rookies set to appear historically (or something like that)? Do you have them set to appear on real teams or to go to Free agency? If you change the teams to Major League, the game may not find them as Negro League players in minors. i don't know. Never tested for that. if you are starting in 1933, don't have historical minors enabled, and league evolution enabled, and don't have past history set-up when you created the game, it's possible these players will not be present. That's something i've never tested for, so can't answer in the definitive. Lots of places to look and to have something set so they aren't appearing. Dunno. Hope this helps you try to find a solution.
Yes Rap Dixon. Color barrier is disabled. I collapsed the NEL into 4 teams and drafted the leftover players from the league. I then moved them up to the MLB, putting two teams in each league, creating 4 divisions. Not sure if there's a correct way to do this, but the first trail run the teams performed like minor league teams would against major league teams, i.e. Jimmy Foxx hit 84 homeruns (close to 30 against the four NEL teams). I agree with you regarding these players being rated as Triple A. I think they need to be rated differently because of the amount of extrapolation required, so this time around I'm manually balancing out the black players stats to be more competitive to their white counterparts.

How do I import those players from the MiLB.csv files? Might be too late for this trial run. Lots to learn!
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Old 04-08-2018, 08:28 PM   #15
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you don't need to import them. they are in the game if set-up correctly. if you WANT or need to import them, their player id is in the MiLB .csv. (column B is the player ID, column AA or Z is the debut year, can't recall which right off, as i think it changed from 18... i use Apache Open Office (free program) to open the .csv files) Just type that ID into the import historical player (located in the drop down menu (function) on the Free Agent page.
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“They make a desolation and call it peace.” ― Agha Shahid Ali
"Maybe she just has to sing, for the sake of the song - And who do I think that I am to decide that she's wrong." - Townes Van Zandt
"I saw a young man leaning on his wooden crutch - He called out to me, 'Don't ask for so much' And a young woman leaning in her darkened door She cried out to me, 'Why not ask for more?' " - Leonard Cohen
Before Mays, before DiMaggio, there was Oscar Charleston.
"All the lies about Babe Ruth are true." - Waite Hoyt

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Old 04-08-2018, 08:50 PM   #16
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you don't need to import them. they are in the game if set-up correctly. if you WANT or need to import them, their player id is in the MiLB .csv. (column B is the player ID, column AA or Z is the debut year, can't recall which right off, as i think it changed from 18... i use Apache Open Office (free program) to open the .csv files) Just type that ID into the import historical player (located in the drop down menu (function) on the Free Agent page.
Awesome! That worked. I really appreciate the help!
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Old 04-09-2018, 07:08 PM   #17
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Have no idea what an MLE is.
MLE = Minor (or Major) League Equivalent I believe. It is an adjustment done to attempt to reflect how the player would've done at the highest level of baseball (i.e. MLB).
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Old 04-13-2018, 01:59 PM   #18
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MLE = Minor (or Major) League Equivalent I believe. It is an adjustment done to attempt to reflect how the player would've done at the highest level of baseball (i.e. MLB).
I would have guessed Major League Experience; but thanks for giving a non-rude response. If it Major League Equivalent, I wounder how that equivalency is determind, but if Spritze did it, I am not sure I care anymore.
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Old 04-13-2018, 04:28 PM   #19
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"Since the subject of MLEs has come up quite a bit [in the baseball newsgroups] in the last week, I've decided to print the basic concepts on how to come up with MLEs. There are a few variations of the MLEs, depending on whether you use 1 or 3 year park effects or whether you use actual minor league park effects rather than the estimation of minor league park effects (when Bill James proposed this system in the 1985 Baseball Astract, minor league park effects were difficult to come by due to the unavailablity of home/road data for minor leaguers). However, the differences are small, which is OK. It's what the numbers mean that's important, not what they exactly say. If one person finds the MLE of Joe Schmo to be 253/330/418 and another person finds it to be 258/327/425, they're still saying the same thing.
One thing to remember is that MLEs are not a prediction of what the player will do, just a translation of what the major league equivalence of what the player actually did is. This is useful for predictions however, because like, major league statistics, MLEs have strong predictive value. As strong as major league statistics (which was the goal of this). Bill James stated that MLEs were the most important concept that he had ever come up with.
The normal season-to-season fluctuation in batting average at the major league level is 25 points. I figured the season-to-season changes for every major league player who has had five years or more of 300 at bats, and the average annual change in batting average was between .024 and .025 [...]

[...] If the minor league equivalencies (mostly of 1983 seasons) that I printed last spring were exactly as accurate as an indicator of future hitting, the average differences between those rojections and what the players actually hit would be exactly the same---.025.

This is a victory statement. Thirty of those player batted 250 times. It is my pleasure to announce at the time that 29 of the players produced 1984 seasons which were substantially consistent with the major league translation of their minor league data, which were published last spring. The one player who got completely out of the range of expectations which should have been generated by his minor league batting statistics was Doug Frobel of Pittsburgh, who batted 276 times, and missed matching the translation of his minor league statistics by 20 hits (79 points).

The average difference between the translation of the minor league data and the actual major league performance was 25 points -- exactly the same as the normal season-to-season fluctuation in a player's batting average between two major league seasons. I think that as you compare the seasons below [clipped, but available on request-DS], it will be very obvious to you that minor league equivalencies and the major league records do, in fact, match up to exactly the same extent that two major league records could be expected to do so.
[Bill James 1985 Abstract p.10]
Note that this has been tested for batting average, slugging percentage, and on-base percentage over the last few years and the methods still work as well as they did in the early 1980s.
As I go along the simpler version of theprocess that I choose to use (which is usually very close to what STATS comes up with, they don't tell exactly what M factors they use so it's hard to reproduce exactly), I will use two players from different parks in two different leagues: Danny Clyburn and Paul Konerko. First let's look at their raw minor league statistics for 1997. Normally, I come up with also park-adjust the 2B/3B/HR by individual factors rather than one single factor, but it doesn't improve the result all that much in most instances as it really doesn't effect the qualitative results, just the quantitative (I'm more interested in qualitative results).
Here are the raw statistics for the two players I'm using to demonstrate MLEs: Danny Clyburn and Paul Konerko
Player AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO
Clyburn 520 91 156 33 5 20 76 53 107
Konerko 483 97 156 31 1 37 127 64 61

Player BA OBP SLG
Clyburn .300 .372 .498
Konerko .323 .407 .621

The first thing we need to do is adjust for the level of league and park. Some players play in hitters' parks/leagues, some play in pitchers' parks/leagues.
First, Clyburn.
Clyburn played in the International League last year in which 9.597 runs per game were scored. Last year, Clyburn played in Rochester, in which run-scoring was deflated by approximately 4% over the last 3 years (unfortunately, I don't have 1 year stats available). So, we'd expect a game between two league average teams at Rochester to score (1.02+[.10*.02])*9.597 runs to score. When we calculate it, we end up finding that Clyburn's production came in a 9.81 run per game context. In the American League last year 9.862 runs per game. The (.10*.02) is used to represent that you can't just use road totals because a league- average player would still get to play some games in Rochester. It's not crucial and if you leave it out, it won't change things that much, so if you prefer, you can find out this number by simply 1.02*9.597
Clyburn: 9.808/9.862 = 1/1.006
We'll call this number PL for park/league adjustment. Clyburn has a PL ratio of 1.006
This indicates that Clyburn's raw statistics won't take a nose dive due to his home park or his league.
Now, we do the same for Konerko. The PCL last year scored 11.532 runs per game. Albuquerque is a pretty darn good hitters' park and increased run scoring by 17%. Once we do what we did for Clyburn, we end up with Konerko's stats being produced in a 12.616. Now, let's match up Clyburn and Konerko's PL ratios side by side. (Konerko 12.616/9.862 = 1/.782
PL Ratios Clyburn 1/1.006 Konerko 1/.782
It's clear that since Konerko played in a park in which runs were easy to come by, that Konerko's raw stats will suffer much more because of the park differences.
Next, we have to adjust for the calibre of competition.
A player ordinarily loses about 18% of his offensive ability relative to the league in moving from AAA to the majors.
When we adjust for this, we get "m"
Clyburn Konerko
1.006 0.782
*0.82 *0.82
------- -------
0.825 0.641
This tells us that Clyburn, upon moving to the major leagues, will probably retain about 83% of his offensive punch while Konerko will retain about 64%.
The other thing we need to find is "M". It's merely the square root of "m".
m M
Clyburn 0.825 0.908
Konerko 0.641 0.801

Now, we can start to adjust.
RAW
Player AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO
Clyburn 520 91 156 33 5 20 76 53 107
Konerko 483 97 156 31 1 37 127 64 61

MLE
Player AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO
Clyburn
Konerko
Now, all we need to get is the park factors for the major league stadiums. To avoid getting too technical, if a stadium has has a park factor of 104 for something, use the multiplier 1.02 rather than 1.04 (not particularly accurate, but close enough).
Too be consistent, let's use three year factors again. Here are the multipliers. I'm gonna refer to park multipliers as PM. Which PM to use is pretty self explanatory.
R H 2B 3B HR BB SO
BAL 0.995 0.98 0.985 0.805 1.05 0.985 1.025
LA 0.895 0.88 0.865 0.745 0.89 0.97 0.995
First, we need to find the MLE hits. To get it, we multiply minor league hits * .98 * M * PM
Then, we need to find the MLE Doubles. To get it, we multiply minor league doubles * M * PM
Then, the MLE triples. To get them, we multiply minor league triples * m * .85 * PM
Then, the MLE homers. To get them, we multiply minor league homers * m * PM
Then, for the RBI and R, we multiply them each by m and then by the PM.
For walks, we do minor league walks * m * PM
For strikeouts, we simply do minor league strikeouts * 1.05 * PM
After we do that, we get this:
MLE
Player AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO
Clyburn 75 136 30 3 17 62 52 43
Konerko 55 108 21 0 21 72 40 64
Now for the At-Bats, we have to do something a little differently. First, we need to know how many outs both players made in the minors this year. For this, we just need to find the AB-H for Clyburn and Konerko.
Clyburn: 520 - 156 = 364
Konerko: 483 - 156 = 327

So then, to get the MLE At Bats, we just add the amount of outs they really made to the amount of hits.
Clyburn: 136 + 364 = 500
Konerko: 108 + 327 = 435

So finally, after using the complete stats to calculate batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentages, we end up with:
MLE
Player AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO
Clyburn 500 75 136 30 3 17 62 52 115
Konerko 435 55 108 21 0 21 72 40 64

Player BA OBP SLG
Clyburn .272 .343 .446
Konerko .248 .312 .441

Neither of these differ much from STATS' MLEs. Keep in mind that Konerko would still be easily the better long-term bet. After all, he put up that MLE at age 21 last year while Clyburn was 23. A year or two makes a big difference in minor league development.
My advice is to set up a spreadsheet. :-) "
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Old 04-15-2018, 11:14 PM   #20
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I just completed my first (of what will undoubtedly be many) test seasons of integrated leagues, and honestly, I'm blown away at the possibilities of what I see here. The fact that that you've designed a platform that enables the user to "tweak" things takes it to the next level. I'm going to download the updated version before I do another test run, with my main goal being to start with the 1920 season and play the game out to 1947 as an integrated league.

Everything you've shared regarding the MLE is very impressive and based on facts. But, what I'm trying to prove is more akin to what paleontologists do when they extrapolate a full skeleton from a handful of bones. With what NEL stats we have to go with, they're obviously not as exact as the 1983 minor league stats - but neither are they fantasy stats. In 1933 Josh Gibson hit .401 with 16 HRs with 239 plate appearances (thank you Seamheads). In my last replay he hit .349 with 51 HRs. Jimmy Foxx hit 58 for the HR title, The Babe had 46, and Gerhig had 45 (I played Gibson in all the games and The Babe played 153 just for ****'s sake). Cool Papa Bell hit .300 in the NEL, he batted .275 in my replay. So on, and so forth. But I had to do a lot of manipulating. Foxx and Gibson were on a pace to hit 68 and 64 HRs 50 games into the season, so I had to adjust them in the "Editor" tab. And a lot of the black players stats were drastically reduced, and I mean by 40% +/-.

I need to do more research on players who played in both leageus, but Monte Irvin hit .375 for the Newark Eagles in 1946, then in 1949 he hit .373 for Jersey City in Triple A ball. He hits .329 in 1953 at the age of 34 for the Giants. So...what would he have hit for the Giants in 1946 at 27? Maybe .340, .345?? Roy Campanella has a similar, but different split career, with his best year being in 1951 when he hit .325 with 33 HRs for Brooklyn at the age of 29.

Anyways, just throwing some things out there.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Spritze View Post
"Since the subject of MLEs has come up quite a bit [in the baseball newsgroups] in the last week, I've decided to print the basic concepts on how to come up with MLEs. There are a few variations of the MLEs, depending on whether you use 1 or 3 year park effects or whether you use actual minor league park effects rather than the estimation of minor league park effects (when Bill James proposed this system in the 1985 Baseball Astract, minor league park effects were difficult to come by due to the unavailablity of home/road data for minor leaguers). However, the differences are small, which is OK. It's what the numbers mean that's important, not what they exactly say. If one person finds the MLE of Joe Schmo to be 253/330/418 and another person finds it to be 258/327/425, they're still saying the same thing.
One thing to remember is that MLEs are not a prediction of what the player will do, just a translation of what the major league equivalence of what the player actually did is. This is useful for predictions however, because like, major league statistics, MLEs have strong predictive value. As strong as major league statistics (which was the goal of this). Bill James stated that MLEs were the most important concept that he had ever come up with.
The normal season-to-season fluctuation in batting average at the major league level is 25 points. I figured the season-to-season changes for every major league player who has had five years or more of 300 at bats, and the average annual change in batting average was between .024 and .025 [...]

[...] If the minor league equivalencies (mostly of 1983 seasons) that I printed last spring were exactly as accurate as an indicator of future hitting, the average differences between those rojections and what the players actually hit would be exactly the same---.025.

This is a victory statement. Thirty of those player batted 250 times. It is my pleasure to announce at the time that 29 of the players produced 1984 seasons which were substantially consistent with the major league translation of their minor league data, which were published last spring. The one player who got completely out of the range of expectations which should have been generated by his minor league batting statistics was Doug Frobel of Pittsburgh, who batted 276 times, and missed matching the translation of his minor league statistics by 20 hits (79 points).

The average difference between the translation of the minor league data and the actual major league performance was 25 points -- exactly the same as the normal season-to-season fluctuation in a player's batting average between two major league seasons. I think that as you compare the seasons below [clipped, but available on request-DS], it will be very obvious to you that minor league equivalencies and the major league records do, in fact, match up to exactly the same extent that two major league records could be expected to do so.
[Bill James 1985 Abstract p.10]
Note that this has been tested for batting average, slugging percentage, and on-base percentage over the last few years and the methods still work as well as they did in the early 1980s.
As I go along the simpler version of theprocess that I choose to use (which is usually very close to what STATS comes up with, they don't tell exactly what M factors they use so it's hard to reproduce exactly), I will use two players from different parks in two different leagues: Danny Clyburn and Paul Konerko. First let's look at their raw minor league statistics for 1997. Normally, I come up with also park-adjust the 2B/3B/HR by individual factors rather than one single factor, but it doesn't improve the result all that much in most instances as it really doesn't effect the qualitative results, just the quantitative (I'm more interested in qualitative results).
Here are the raw statistics for the two players I'm using to demonstrate MLEs: Danny Clyburn and Paul Konerko
Player AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO
Clyburn 520 91 156 33 5 20 76 53 107
Konerko 483 97 156 31 1 37 127 64 61

Player BA OBP SLG
Clyburn .300 .372 .498
Konerko .323 .407 .621

The first thing we need to do is adjust for the level of league and park. Some players play in hitters' parks/leagues, some play in pitchers' parks/leagues.
First, Clyburn.
Clyburn played in the International League last year in which 9.597 runs per game were scored. Last year, Clyburn played in Rochester, in which run-scoring was deflated by approximately 4% over the last 3 years (unfortunately, I don't have 1 year stats available). So, we'd expect a game between two league average teams at Rochester to score (1.02+[.10*.02])*9.597 runs to score. When we calculate it, we end up finding that Clyburn's production came in a 9.81 run per game context. In the American League last year 9.862 runs per game. The (.10*.02) is used to represent that you can't just use road totals because a league- average player would still get to play some games in Rochester. It's not crucial and if you leave it out, it won't change things that much, so if you prefer, you can find out this number by simply 1.02*9.597
Clyburn: 9.808/9.862 = 1/1.006
We'll call this number PL for park/league adjustment. Clyburn has a PL ratio of 1.006
This indicates that Clyburn's raw statistics won't take a nose dive due to his home park or his league.
Now, we do the same for Konerko. The PCL last year scored 11.532 runs per game. Albuquerque is a pretty darn good hitters' park and increased run scoring by 17%. Once we do what we did for Clyburn, we end up with Konerko's stats being produced in a 12.616. Now, let's match up Clyburn and Konerko's PL ratios side by side. (Konerko 12.616/9.862 = 1/.782
PL Ratios Clyburn 1/1.006 Konerko 1/.782
It's clear that since Konerko played in a park in which runs were easy to come by, that Konerko's raw stats will suffer much more because of the park differences.
Next, we have to adjust for the calibre of competition.
A player ordinarily loses about 18% of his offensive ability relative to the league in moving from AAA to the majors.
When we adjust for this, we get "m"
Clyburn Konerko
1.006 0.782
*0.82 *0.82
------- -------
0.825 0.641
This tells us that Clyburn, upon moving to the major leagues, will probably retain about 83% of his offensive punch while Konerko will retain about 64%.
The other thing we need to find is "M". It's merely the square root of "m".
m M
Clyburn 0.825 0.908
Konerko 0.641 0.801

Now, we can start to adjust.
RAW
Player AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO
Clyburn 520 91 156 33 5 20 76 53 107
Konerko 483 97 156 31 1 37 127 64 61

MLE
Player AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO
Clyburn
Konerko
Now, all we need to get is the park factors for the major league stadiums. To avoid getting too technical, if a stadium has has a park factor of 104 for something, use the multiplier 1.02 rather than 1.04 (not particularly accurate, but close enough).
Too be consistent, let's use three year factors again. Here are the multipliers. I'm gonna refer to park multipliers as PM. Which PM to use is pretty self explanatory.
R H 2B 3B HR BB SO
BAL 0.995 0.98 0.985 0.805 1.05 0.985 1.025
LA 0.895 0.88 0.865 0.745 0.89 0.97 0.995
First, we need to find the MLE hits. To get it, we multiply minor league hits * .98 * M * PM
Then, we need to find the MLE Doubles. To get it, we multiply minor league doubles * M * PM
Then, the MLE triples. To get them, we multiply minor league triples * m * .85 * PM
Then, the MLE homers. To get them, we multiply minor league homers * m * PM
Then, for the RBI and R, we multiply them each by m and then by the PM.
For walks, we do minor league walks * m * PM
For strikeouts, we simply do minor league strikeouts * 1.05 * PM
After we do that, we get this:
MLE
Player AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO
Clyburn 75 136 30 3 17 62 52 43
Konerko 55 108 21 0 21 72 40 64
Now for the At-Bats, we have to do something a little differently. First, we need to know how many outs both players made in the minors this year. For this, we just need to find the AB-H for Clyburn and Konerko.
Clyburn: 520 - 156 = 364
Konerko: 483 - 156 = 327

So then, to get the MLE At Bats, we just add the amount of outs they really made to the amount of hits.
Clyburn: 136 + 364 = 500
Konerko: 108 + 327 = 435

So finally, after using the complete stats to calculate batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentages, we end up with:
MLE
Player AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO
Clyburn 500 75 136 30 3 17 62 52 115
Konerko 435 55 108 21 0 21 72 40 64

Player BA OBP SLG
Clyburn .272 .343 .446
Konerko .248 .312 .441

Neither of these differ much from STATS' MLEs. Keep in mind that Konerko would still be easily the better long-term bet. After all, he put up that MLE at age 21 last year while Clyburn was 23. A year or two makes a big difference in minor league development.
My advice is to set up a spreadsheet. :-) "
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