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OOTP 19 - Historical Simulations Discuss historical simulations and their results in this forum.

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Old 03-20-2018, 10:48 PM   #1
nyy26wc
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Are real stats now park adjusted?

I ran a test league, from 2000-17. It was a historical game, with development turned off, 1-year recalc and the ratings were based on real stats.

I noticed something about hitters who played their whole careers (or most of it) in Coors. They all have lifetime OPS in my test league that were 50+ points below their real life career averages. That was the case for Todd Helton, Carlos Gonzalez, Troy Tulowitzki.

Another player that stood out to me was David Ortiz. In my OOTP test league, he never went to the Red Sox. Without playing in Fenway, he ended up with exactly 400 HR in 2456 career games, as opposed to 541 in 2408 games in the real world.

I then ran another historical game, also covering 2000-17. Once again, I had development turned off, 1-year recalc and the ratings were based on real stats.But, this time, I used real historical transactions and real historical lineups. That way, everyone was forced to play in the same home parks as they did in real life, as well as being used in the lineup the same way as they really were. The big hit in career OPS that real life Rockies hitters got went away in that test league. Meanwhile, Ortiz's career HR dropped from his real figure, but only down to a more realistic 518 HR.

This makes me that basing the ratings on "real stats" result in park adjusted figures being used for the ratings. That would appear to account for why Rockies hitters get a big drop in their stats when their career paths take them away from the Rockies (either through trade or free agency), but not have that happen when they stay on the same career path in terms of teams.

Meanwhile, the coaching system was turned off in both test leagues. So, that can be eliminated as a potential variable.
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Old 03-21-2018, 04:26 PM   #2
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I donít think they are park adjusted unless they snuck it in without telling us, which would be ok with me.

Just curious, what is your setting for
Weaken/adjust hitters/pitchers
Injury setting
Fatigue setting
DH or not
Traditional or saber lineup

Thanks for your post
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Old 03-21-2018, 04:32 PM   #3
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no park adjusting takes place.
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Old 03-21-2018, 07:07 PM   #4
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I always chronicle all of the changes to settings for my test leagues.

For the league in which real life Rockies players took a big hit in their stats when they left Colorado, I made the following changes:

turned off coaching system
turned off baseball cards
injury: normal
turned off suspensions
turned off personality
turned off morale
turned off development
turned off amateur draft
turned off spring training
1 year recalc

All else was the default settings.

Then, in the league in which they didnít take those hits, the same changes were made, along with using real life transactions and real life lineups. As a result of the real life lineups, the injuries were disabled.

Maybe this was just a fluke result league.
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Old 03-21-2018, 07:08 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spritze View Post
no park adjusting takes place.
Thanks for that info. That was what I originally thought, but in light of these test results, I wanted to check to make sure.
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Old 03-21-2018, 08:25 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nyy26wc View Post
Thanks for that info. That was what I originally thought, but in light of these test results, I wanted to check to make sure.
They are adjusted in the sense that Tulo played in Coors most of his career, and if he suddenly finds himself in Dodger Stadium...Well, you get the picture.
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Old 03-21-2018, 09:17 PM   #7
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They are adjusted in the sense that Tulo played in Coors most of his career, and if he suddenly finds himself in Dodger Stadium...Well, you get the picture.
You're right. I forgot to take into account that the new stadium that the player found himself in would factor in. D'OH!!!
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Old 03-23-2018, 03:22 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nyy26wc View Post
I ran a test league, from 2000-17. It was a historical game, with development turned off, 1-year recalc and the ratings were based on real stats.

I noticed something about hitters who played their whole careers (or most of it) in Coors. They all have lifetime OPS in my test league that were 50+ points below their real life career averages. That was the case for Todd Helton, Carlos Gonzalez, Troy Tulowitzki.

Another player that stood out to me was David Ortiz. In my OOTP test league, he never went to the Red Sox. Without playing in Fenway, he ended up with exactly 400 HR in 2456 career games, as opposed to 541 in 2408 games in the real world.

I then ran another historical game, also covering 2000-17. Once again, I had development turned off, 1-year recalc and the ratings were based on real stats.But, this time, I used real historical transactions and real historical lineups. That way, everyone was forced to play in the same home parks as they did in real life, as well as being used in the lineup the same way as they really were. The big hit in career OPS that real life Rockies hitters got went away in that test league. Meanwhile, Ortiz's career HR dropped from his real figure, but only down to a more realistic 518 HR.

This makes me that basing the ratings on "real stats" result in park adjusted figures being used for the ratings. That would appear to account for why Rockies hitters get a big drop in their stats when their career paths take them away from the Rockies (either through trade or free agency), but not have that happen when they stay on the same career path in terms of teams.

Meanwhile, the coaching system was turned off in both test leagues. So, that can be eliminated as a potential variable.
I think the 400 HRs by Ortiz is what you get when you turn the steroids off (writss the bitter Yankees fan).
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Old 03-29-2018, 06:59 PM   #9
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