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OOTP 20 - Historical Simulations Discuss historical simulations and their results in this forum.

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Old 12-21-2019, 09:45 PM   #1
kevin95630
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Baffled by historical player ratings inaccuracies

I imagine this has come up before, but I was not able to track down a thread on it, so here goes....

I'm thoroughly baffled by the historical player ratings. Coming out of the APBA tradition, I am accustomed to a high degree of accuracy in the ratings, and finding them perplexingly lacking in OOTP.

While I greatly appreciate the depth of this game, I can't figure how the ratings are intended to correlate to IRL performance.

Two examples I have recently encountered are the 1972 Clay Carroll and the 1963 Jim Bouton.

In 72, Carroll was an ace in the Cincinnati bullpen. 37 saves in 92 IP, an ERA of 2.25 and other stats in line with an awesome rating (he was an A* in APBA). Yet his OOTP rating is fairly lackluster.

Bouton in 63 was 21-7 for the Yankees, with an ERA of 2.53. He famously threw his arm out with his fastball that he threw so hard his hat would come off. And yet his rating in OOTP is similarly lackluster. He's not even rated for having a fastball!

The Perfect Team rating for both is rather abysmal. All very puzzling.

Even more puzzling to me is that both pitchers have outperformed their ratings in sims I've done, though still underperforming their IRL stats.

Historical sim is my primary attraction to OOTP or any other sim, so this sort of shortcoming is particularly vexing to me. Thoughts?
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Old 12-22-2019, 02:30 AM   #2
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I had both of those guys on my PT team, bouton with his 8+ era still is but I got rid of clay with his 12+ era. kept both for 4 or 5 years but they always were horrors..i pretty much have given up on historical pt due to way too many issues like this.

but in the historical game they usually come real close to behaving normally for me.
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Old 12-22-2019, 01:19 PM   #3
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In my experience, historical seasons usually produce results comparable to real life. I just simmed the 63 and 72 seasons. Bouton was 19-6, 2.99 ERA. Carroll posted a 1.93 ERA.

PT is a different animal. Each player's value is relative to the overall talent in the league. If the league is chock-full of Perfects and Diamonds, then you'd better have a roster of Perfects and Diamonds to compete.
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Old 12-22-2019, 08:17 PM   #4
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Good to know. Thanks to both of you for your feedback. I've also been running some sims and noting that the results generated are within a range that is realistic to expect. Though I remain puzzled as to the ratings shown (for the historical sim, not PT) diverges so much from what I would expect to see. Ultimately, if it works out that way, I don't need to understand why. But would like it!
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Old 12-22-2019, 09:01 PM   #5
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Stuff refers to K per Batter Faced

Movement refers to HR per Batter Faced

Control refers to BB per Batter Faced
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Old 12-22-2019, 10:07 PM   #6
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I was thinking those factors would be used to form the basis of the pitcher's performance in the sim. Are there other factors used in the sim, which are not visible to the user?


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Stuff refers to K per Batter Faced

Movement refers to HR per Batter Faced

Control refers to BB per Batter Faced
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Old 12-23-2019, 12:58 PM   #7
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Well, a lot of a pitcher's perceived value will actually be generated by the defense behind him and the catcher in front of him. Especially wins and ERA. And even his team's offense with respect to the wins stat.

It sounds like people are seeing accurate results in the sims because all of the other variables that made these pitchers garner quality stats are also reflected in OOTP. Put a pitcher with mid-range STU/MOV/CON on a worse team and he won't do as well.

The FIP stat, which shows a pitcher's value without taking his defense into account, will be fairly constant if you move a player to a different team. The only thing I've found that can meaningfully change FIP is the quality of a catcher. Better catcher = better FIP for his pitchers.
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Old 12-23-2019, 04:37 PM   #8
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In a recent game from 1871-2018 I saved here are Bouton and Carroll

Bouton 1963 Real vs OOTP
HR/9: 0.6 vs 0.3
BB/9: 3.1 vs 3.4
K/9: 5.3 vs 6.8
Bouton ended up as a reliever though and only pitched 91 innings.

Bouton Career Real vs OOTP
HR/9: 0.9 vs 1.0
BB/9: 3.2 vs 3.4
K/9: 5.2 vs 6.6
He only had 254 IP in his career in OOTP though as he apparently ended up on a team that used other pitchers and kept him on their reserve roster.

Carroll 1972 Real vs OOTP
HR/9: 0.5 vs 0.7
BB/9: 3.0 vs 2.1
K/9: 4.8 vs 4.6
He led the league with 42 saves in 76 IP.

Carroll Career Real vs OOTP
HR/9: 0.4 vs 0.4
BB/9: 2.9 vs 3.5
K/9: 4.5 vs 4.1
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Old 12-23-2019, 04:48 PM   #9
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From that same game, Ted Williams:

Real: .344/.482/.634
OOTP: .345/.476/.626

Your game settings of position player fatigue and import settings will affect the outcome of the results.
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Old 12-27-2019, 03:25 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kevin95630 View Post
I imagine this has come up before, but I was not able to track down a thread on it, so here goes....

I'm thoroughly baffled by the historical player ratings. Coming out of the APBA tradition, I am accustomed to a high degree of accuracy in the ratings, and finding them perplexingly lacking in OOTP.

While I greatly appreciate the depth of this game, I can't figure how the ratings are intended to correlate to IRL performance.

Two examples I have recently encountered are the 1972 Clay Carroll and the 1963 Jim Bouton.

In 72, Carroll was an ace in the Cincinnati bullpen. 37 saves in 92 IP, an ERA of 2.25 and other stats in line with an awesome rating (he was an A* in APBA). Yet his OOTP rating is fairly lackluster.

Bouton in 63 was 21-7 for the Yankees, with an ERA of 2.53. He famously threw his arm out with his fastball that he threw so hard his hat would come off. And yet his rating in OOTP is similarly lackluster. He's not even rated for having a fastball!

The Perfect Team rating for both is rather abysmal. All very puzzling.

Even more puzzling to me is that both pitchers have outperformed their ratings in sims I've done, though still underperforming their IRL stats.

Historical sim is my primary attraction to OOTP or any other sim, so this sort of shortcoming is particularly vexing to me. Thoughts?
I can confirm that Bouton does not have a fastball in his repertoire in OOTP, at least upon import as a rookie. His OOTP repertoire:

Curveball
Changeup
Circle Change
Knuckle Curve

RL repertoire (according to the Neyer/James Guide to Pitchers):

Fastball
Overhand Curve (Curveball in OOTP I guess)
Changeup
Knuckleball

His fastball died in late 1964, and he added in a changeup to compensate for that. The knuckleball became a pitch he went to almost exclusively from 1969 forward. It's possible that a column in the database for one of those pitches got a rating, while his fastball did not. That's the only thing I can think of that might help rectify the lack of a fastball, and if that's the problem, the people in charge of the database (can't remember if Spritze is still doing this or not) would have to go into the database and fix it. This could also be being affected by your settings, though I'm not sure where to start if that's the case.

I don't know anything about PT, but I do know that if you're in a league with uber-talented players, and very few stiffs, guys like Bouton and Carroll are probably going to get pummelled. I've heard of great pitchers having 5ish ERAs in PT, and partly for this reason, I don't touch it with a ten foot pole.

I learned a long time ago to not expect APBA/Strat type stat outcomes from OOTP. Many things will affect this as mentioned above. I highly recommend setting your Game Settings > League Settings > Historical > Historical Player Ratings > Ratings recalculation base to 1 year in order to give yourself a chance to get the outcomes that you're looking for. I think the default is 3 years. 3 years will result in ratings based on the year before the year in question, the year in question, and the year after the year in question. In your Bouton case that would be 1962/1963/1964, whereas with 1 year, the ratings would be based on 1963 exclusively. Same thing with Carroll, except the years would be 1971/1972/1973 rather than 1972 exclusively. That should help a lot if you don't already have it setup that way.
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Old 12-27-2019, 03:57 PM   #11
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Addendum to above post: Also be sure that the Game Settings > Players & FaceGen > Player Development Settings > "Disable Player Development" box is checked. Finally, make sure that the Game Settings > League Settings > Historical > Historical Player Ratings > Recalc player ratings based on real stats after each year box is checked.
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Old 12-27-2019, 11:51 PM   #12
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You're right about that, for sure. It works the other way too. Sometimes players vastly outperform their IRL selves in PT. While it seems to be loosely based on reality, at least in terms of potential, there appears to be a lot of randomness thrown in as well, as to how players perform from year to year.

In terms of statistical realism, that stinks. However, I look at it as a true fantasy league, with a lot of J. Henry Waugh aspects to it. You can "scout" players, but you never know how they're going to perform for you until they get on the field in a game.

Sometimes, you just have to hang in there with them and they'll come around. Sometimes sending them down to work on their weaknesses seems to pay off when they come back up. Pure fantasy!

But yeah, in replays, I go for realism. Using historical lineups and transactions etc. I'll check to make sure I have my settings how you suggest. Thanks!


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I don't know anything about PT, but I do know that if you're in a league with uber-talented players, and very few stiffs, guys like Bouton and Carroll are probably going to get pummelled. I've heard of great pitchers having 5ish ERAs in PT, and partly for this reason, I don't touch it with a ten foot pole.
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Old 12-27-2019, 11:56 PM   #13
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I checked my settings, and most of it was right, but I did have the default 3-year ratings recalc, so I've fixed that. Thanks for the tip.

What about "Double weight of current year stats"?

[QUOTE=actionjackson;4572613]
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Old 12-30-2019, 02:42 PM   #14
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I can only say "roughly accurate" in my experience. I haven't really been concerned with the details except for players on my team in PT, and I got rid of a player because of it, just for my own little experience...

But one thing I can say that become super-obvious playing in a Perfect League is stats greatly change not just because of things like Park Factors, lineup slot & team defense but your opponents...

There are hitters facing aces every day & pitchers throwing to unreal lineups.

You of course cannot have a starting staff with a RL ERA of 2.16 & an opposing lineup with a RL BA of .300 EVER come out that way because they are one event...a 2.16 ERA pitcher will not allow a batter to hit .300, & .300 hitters coming out to .300 would not allow a pitcher to post the 2.16.

This is obvious in a way, but not so obvious when we overlook the fact in talking about a pitcher's or hitter's stats we rarely get into the details for reasons why they might have posted great numbers in a situation.; I mention this because there's a forgiveable factor when you consider it except for gross oversights.
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Old 12-30-2019, 04:20 PM   #15
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I enjoy playing PT, but frankly I consider it purely fantastical. Players playing against themselves, the mixing of years, the (welcome) addition of players from the Negro Leagues all conspire to take what was already a challenge to recreate IRL performance and mix in some chaos.

Moreover, based on my limited experience, I believe there is an intentional and strong element randomness added to player performance in PT. Which, while frustrating to those seeking accuracy in historical simulation, adds greatly to the PT experience. By which I mean, you cannot "know" how Aaron or Clemente or Bench will perform for you in a given year. Not based on their IRL output, and not based on their prior or even current year PT performance.

We know this because the exact same player, playing in the exact same league, will have wildly different outcomes. Yes, some factors can be chalked up to the performance of their teammates or that they face different opponents. But over the course of a season, that should tend to flatten out. Especially as you move up in the PT universe, to where all the teams are more or less a proven commodity.

It is in the world of historical sims that I am still questioning. My goal in historical replays is to recreate reality, not to outperform my IRL counterpart. So I integrate all identified factors that support that objective. And yet, I still see some things that make me raise an eyebrow.

All that said, and thanks to the great insights offered in response here, I've moved from baffled to puzzled or simply curious. Thanks again to everyone who has contributed here. The quality of the fan base is certainly among OOTP's strengths.
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Old 12-31-2019, 05:32 PM   #16
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[QUOTE=kevin95630]I checked my settings, and most of it was right, but I did have the default 3-year ratings recalc, so I've fixed that. Thanks for the tip.

What about "Double weight of current year stats"?

Double weight really only applies to 3-year and 5-year recalc. With 1-year recalc, the ratings are 100% based on the year in question. Double weight would not change that.

Let's say you're playing with three year recalc in 1984. Your player ratings will be based equally on his RL 1983+1984+1985 stats, so: 1/3, 1/3, 1/3. If you double the weight of the current year (1984), it'll be 1983+1984+1984+1985 stats, so: 1/4, 1/2, 1/4.

Same thing for five year recalc in 1984. Player ratings are based equally on RL 1982+1983+1984+1985+1986 stats, so: 1/5, 1/5, 1/5, 1/5, 1/5. If you double the weight, it becomes 1982+1983+1984+1984+1985+1986, so 1/6, 1/6, 1/3, 1/6, 1/6.

Adjusting your recalc setting to 1-year should get you as close as possible to the type of stats output that you're looking for, for each player. It won't be 100% because of the variance in circumstances, but it should be close.
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Old 12-31-2019, 05:41 PM   #17
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[QUOTE=kevin95630;4572703]I checked my settings, and most of it was right, but I did have the default 3-year ratings recalc, so I've fixed that. Thanks for the tip.

What about "Double weight of current year stats"?

Also, have you disabled player development (Use the path I followed in the above post), and checked the "Recalc player ratings based on real stats after each year box", and ensured that you're basing your ratings on Real Stats, and not Neutralized Stats (setting in the same general vicinity as "Recalc player ratings..." check box)? Use the path I posted in the above post to get to these two settings.
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Tickled to death by their importance...

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I gotta go
It's been a pleasure doing business with you"

- RIP Gord Downie (The Tragically Hip) February 6th, 1964 - October 17th, 2017
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Old 01-04-2020, 06:01 PM   #18
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Originally Posted by kevin95630 View Post

In 72, Carroll was an ace in the Cincinnati bullpen. 37 saves in 92 IP, an ERA of 2.25 and other stats in line with an awesome rating (he was an A* in APBA). Yet his OOTP rating is fairly lackluster.

I don't see that "other stats are in line with an awesome rating" on Carroll


WHIP League average 1.29 Carroll 1.26
BA League 248 vs Carroll 256
OPB League 315 vs Carroll 316
Slg League 365 vs Carroll 346
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Old 01-06-2020, 04:02 PM   #19
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Yeah, 1972 Clay Carroll is a classic example of a guy looking better under traditional stats than advanced stats.

He only got so many saves because he was playing for a great team, the Big Red Machine. And I bet his ERA was low in part because he had these guys up the middle - Johnny Bench, Dave Concepcion, Joe Morgan.

In 1972 he had a 4.8 K/9.. that's not closer material in any era. Just didn't strike out enough guys, and OOTP won't like him for it. Lucky for him in real life that he was in the right place at the right time. Put 1972 Rollie Fingers with his 9.1 K/9 on the Reds instead and he'll look like a god in comparison. Rollie also had a similar HR/9 and better BB/9 than Carroll. Those are the stats that count in OOTP.

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