Today's Live Card Update!

[Markus Heinsohn]

Originally Posted by ecd1973

If there isn't a way to do this already, can we have a way to filter our card collection to see only cards that changed? I would love to be able to have a quick way to see who changed this week, and maybe with a column added with a +/- value.

Not at the moment. We'll try to make something like this happen in a future patch

[herbyhancok]

Are the updates automated based on stats, on personal observation or some mixture of the two?



Just wondering, cause as a Reds fan I was surprised to see Anthony Desclafani get a huge bump(or small bump after a glitch I guess) after having one good game and one absolutely disastrous game. On the other hand Tucker Barnhart had a big downgrade, despite playing generally solid defense and having about average offense for a catcher.


Outside of those the update generally nailed the ratings change for the Reds. Unfortunately.

[dman7666]

Sorry if this was explained before but I am uncertain how the live updates work. Are they based on the cumulative performance of how the player has done in the season up to that point or is it based on a specific duration of time such as the last week of their season?

In other words, in a simplified example, if a player starts the season hitting .200 for the first month and then catches fire and hits .400 for the second month would his updated states reflect the .400 level he was currently playing at or the .300 cumulative average of the season?

[PocketsAintFull]

I'm sure it's nice having a player go up, but it's a little disheartening to find out my team is suddenly worse when I haven't done anything

And my 97 Bauer became 96 before he pitched for me! Did he have a wild off-season or something?

[chazzycat]

Originally Posted by dman7666

Sorry if this was explained before but I am uncertain how the live updates work. Are they based on the cumulative performance of how the player has done in the season up to that point or is it based on a specific duration of time such as the last week of their season?

In other words, in a simplified example, if a player starts the season hitting .200 for the first month and then catches fire and hits .400 for the second month would his updated states reflect the .400 level he was currently playing at or the .300 cumulative average of the season?

They use ZiPs projections, so everything is heavily regressed to the mean of their past performance. So the changes in rating will be much more subtle than changing a .300 hitter to a .400 hitter. In the first update I haven't seen anyone move more than 3 points overall.

[Crash]

my 80 jake lamb is now a 77 jake lamb. He's worth 900 less today than yesterday

ouch. Live updates can definitely bite back

edit - once bronze became a silver, so net loss adjusted to 825

[atabakin]

Originally Posted by Markus Heinsohn

Position player defensive positions & defensive ratings do not change (that would throw off the overall card value too much)

I don't think anyone's commented on this point, but I think it's an important one. Defensive stats take a long time to normalize, so making frequent adjustments here would be pretty crazy. I wouldn't be opposed to an update of these around the all-star break, but not changing them is better than changing too frequently.

Overall, fantastic job, Markus and team. The updates were subtle enough not to completely disrupt the system, but enough to be quite intriguing at the margins. Really well done.

[Mizzery]

Originally Posted by atabakin

I don't think anyone's commented on this point, but I think it's an important one. Defensive stats take a long time to normalize, so making frequent adjustments here would be pretty crazy. I wouldn't be opposed to an update of these around the all-star break, but not changing them is better than changing too frequently.

Overall, fantastic job, Markus and team. The updates were subtle enough not to completely disrupt the system, but enough to be quite intriguing at the margins. Really well done.

Other than defensive factors, does only the OVR move, or do the underlying factors change as well? For example, if a pitcher increases or decreases in value, do MOV, STUFF, CONTROL, etc. move with it?

If the answer is yes, does that mean the factors vs L and R for hitters and pitchers move incrementally as well, or do they remain static?

[dman7666]

Originally Posted by chazzycat

They use ZiPs projections, so everything is heavily regressed to the mean of their past performance. So the changes in rating will be much more subtle than changing a .300 hitter to a .400 hitter. In the first update I haven't seen anyone move more than 3 points overall.

Ok, so if I am understanding this correctly, ZiPs projections are an attempt to mirror, given a host of parameters, what that player's stats would look like for the entire current season. The ratings on the cards are then adjusted to reflect the projected season performance as predicated on ZiPs. Since ZiPs projections are based on several prior years of player performance data one stellar (or poor) period of time will have, as you stated, a more subtle effect on that player's ratings.

However, if a career .250 hitter is hitting .330 at the all-star break, one can expect to see that .330 average much more heavily weighted in their ZiPs (and subsequently their PT20 card ratings) as one of the elements of ZiPs is that recent performance is weighted in a way to try to capture an accurate picture of what that player's final season stats will be.

Is that how it works?

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by Mizzery

Other than defensive factors, does only the OVR move, or do the underlying factors change as well? For example, if a pitcher increases or decreases in value, do MOV, STUFF, CONTROL, etc. move with it?

If the answer is yes, does that mean the factors vs L and R for hitters and pitchers move incrementally as well, or do they remain static?

Yes and yes.

[herbyhancok]

Originally Posted by Mizzery

Other than defensive factors, does only the OVR move, or do the underlying factors change as well? For example, if a pitcher increases or decreases in value, do MOV, STUFF, CONTROL, etc. move with it?

If the answer is yes, does that mean the factors vs L and R for hitters and pitchers move incrementally as well, or do they remain static?

I was curious about this too, so I took a few screens of guys I thought might change the other day. They definitely do change. Just looking at Lucas Giolito for a second, I see his movement vs. RH went up one, his overalls didn't change... and his curveball went down by one? Uhhh, don't worry about it - he's better!


The thing I'm worried about is what the ratings changes are based on, like I was asking in my previous post. If defense is static and ratings changes are only based on offense, you basically never want to own glove-first live cards or you're going to get hosed every week. Catchers seem to be way over represented on the list, so this is probably the case. What did Ketel Marte do to deserve this???

[Germaniac]

Originally Posted by Markus Heinsohn

For me it's a ton of fun... imagine you own a Gary Sanchez card and you watch a Yankees game, and see him clobber 3 HR like he did yesterday, wouldn't you be totally happy? This adds a whole new dimension to watching live baseball IMO

I really love that aspect of PT

[dkgo]

Originally Posted by herbyhancok

The thing I'm worried about is what the ratings changes are based on, like I was asking in my previous post. If defense is static and ratings changes are only based on offense, you basically never want to own glove-first live cards or you're going to get hosed every week. Catchers seem to be way over represented on the list, so this is probably the case. What did Ketel Marte do to deserve this???

but glove-first cards have a lower baseline for hitting to begin with.

if andrelton simmons is projected for a .700 OPS season while trea turner is projected for .800, then if they both hit .750 simmons should go up while turner would go down.

unless I am misunderstanding your question

[herbyhancok]

Originally Posted by dkgo

but glove-first cards have a lower baseline for hitting to begin with.

if andrelton simmons is projected for a .700 OPS season while trea turner is projected for .800, then if they both hit .750 simmons should go up while turner would go down.

unless I am misunderstanding your question

You're misunderstanding me. If the only ratings being accounted for on ratings adjustments are offense *without rating that against the cards base offense values* then the database is just going to say, "Oh, I see this player had a WRC+ below 90 again this week, lemme further dump on this player's offense and overall ratings, despite them having played well in real life."



Hello Nick Ahmed owners.

[atabakin]

Originally Posted by herbyhancok

You're misunderstanding me. If the only ratings being accounted for on ratings adjustments are offense *without rating that against the cards base offense values* then the database is just going to say, "Oh, I see this player had a WRC+ below 90 again this week, lemme further dump on this player's offense and overall ratings, despite them having played well in real life."



Hello Nick Ahmed owners.

If a player is projected to hit terribly and he hits at an average clip, his rating will go up because the defensive ratings won't change. If he's supposed to be terrible and is terrible, the ratings won't change.

[herbyhancok]

Nope. Just look at Ahmed, who I specifically cited.

[atabakin]

Originally Posted by herbyhancok

Nope. Just look at Ahmed, who I specifically cited.

He hit .231/.276/.308 against RHP. That's bad, and vs. RHP is weighted heavier than vs. LHP in the composite ratings. He should drop. His relatively strong defensive ratings keep him a silver instead of a bronze.

[herbyhancok]

Originally Posted by atabakin

He hit .231/.276/.308 against RHP. That's bad, and vs. RHP is weighted heavier than vs. LHP in the composite ratings. He should drop. His relatively strong defensive ratings keep him a silver instead of a bronze.

and he's a career .210/.262/.334 hitter against rightes. So, he basically hit in line w/ his expected OPS against and then destroyed lefties at a 1.121 clip. I in no way see how he doesn't get a stat bump, but instead gets slapped w/ a -3.

[atabakin]

Originally Posted by herbyhancok

and he's a career .210/.262/.334 hitter against rightes. So, he basically hit in line w/ his expected OPS against and then destroyed lefties at a 1.121 clip. I in no way see how he doesn't get a stat bump, but instead gets slapped w/ a -3.

He did better in 2018 against RHP, but not overwhelmingly. Three points is probably harsh, considering no players moved more than three points, but then again it doesn't really affect his current value too much considering he didn't change tiers.

[herbyhancok]

It's not a big deal right now, but if these glove guys are losing, say a point a week on average every update and there's nothing done, then by September most every silver glove guy or catcher is going to be an iron card.

*I don't think the problem is just limited to defense first guys either, it's just there seems to be a more apparent pattern w/ them. Cause if you look at a lot of guys there's a lot of head scratchers. Adam Jones is raking and got a -1.