Are playoffs harder in OOTP 20 than older versions

fightingirish595 · 08-07-2019, 09:15 AM

I do not want this to be a thread of just me complaining about my 105+win teams getting swept in the first round or losing 2-0 series leads.

I am genuinely curious. Am I just running into bad luck or was ootp 19 easier and that is why I had so much success. Thoughts and opinions from your experiences

battists · 08-07-2019, 09:25 AM

Sample size my man

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fightingirish595 · 08-07-2019, 09:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by battists

Sample size my man

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Yeah I’ve only run about 20 simulations so far

Lukas Berger · 08-07-2019, 09:55 AM

We didn't change anything that would affect this, so surely just a sample size issue.

Matt Arnold · 08-07-2019, 10:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lukas Berger

We didn't change anything that would affect this, so surely just a sample size issue.

Other than always doing small things to make the AI better

If you're playing out games yourself or setting your own strategy and the AI is beating you more than they did before, then that could be it.

BirdWatcher · 08-07-2019, 10:26 AM

What you are experiencing in 20 is what I experienced in 19.
Because, you know, baseball playoffs. (Like the Highlander, at the end there can be only one.)

Déjà Bru · 08-07-2019, 10:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BirdWatcher

What you are experiencing in 20 is what I experienced in 19.
Because, you know, baseball playoffs. (Like the Highlander, at the end there can be only one.)

Same here, and even further back. As it is IRL. The dominant regular season teams will tend to win if you simulated the playoffs over and over again but occasionally - perhaps between occasionally and often - a wild card will get hot and win it all. Unfortunately, this could include the front runner being swept in a preliminary series, especially a short one.

fightingirish595 · 08-07-2019, 10:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lukas Berger

We didn't change anything that would affect this, so surely just a sample size issue.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matt Arnold

Other than always doing small things to make the AI better

If you're playing out games yourself or setting your own strategy and the AI is beating you more than they did before, then that could be it.

Interesting... I run my games as GM only so I let the manager control that stuff. Perhaps the teams I am building now just are not as good as the teams I built in 19.

Quote:

Originally Posted by BirdWatcher

What you are experiencing in 20 is what I experienced in 19.
Because, you know, baseball playoffs. (Like the Highlander, at the end there can be only one.)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Déjà Bru

Same here, and even further back. As it is IRL. The dominant regular season teams will tend to win if you simulated the playoffs over and over again but occasionally - perhaps between occasionally and often - a wild card will get hot and win it all. Unfortunately, this could include the front runner being swept in a preliminary series, especially a short one.

In 19 I had an absurd world series champions to playoff appearances win rate. Like I said above, maybe my teams just are not as good even if they are winning a ton of games. There are so many variables at play i suppose

BirdWatcher · 08-07-2019, 11:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fightingirish595

In 19 I had an absurd world series champions to playoff appearances win rate. Like I said above, maybe my teams just are not as good even if they are winning a ton of games. There are so many variables at play i suppose

To me it sounds like you had a run of very good luck which now has reverted to more normal levels. Just as IRL, in a short series the best team simply doesn't always (in fact, often doesn't) win. Your teams might be as good as those championship teams, or even better, but that is never a guarantee of success once you reach the post-season.

Bluenoser · 08-07-2019, 11:58 AM

I always go into the playoffs knowing one thing is certain - The team that wins it all is not necessarily the best team, but rather the team that played the best over a 3 - 4 week period.

Teams get hot and cold all the time, it happens in the regular season, and it happens in the playoffs.

fightingirish595 · 08-07-2019, 12:48 PM

In this simulation i just completed, I racked up 107 wins. Lost game 5 of the ALDS to the 86 win rays 2-1. Really tough pill to swallow

BirdWatcher · 08-07-2019, 01:34 PM

No doubt.
The post-season can certainly crush your spirit. (IRL and in OOTP.)
(I still remember the 1987 Tigers with their MLB best 98-64 record losing to the 85 win Minnesota Twins 4 games to 1. And of course the Twins then went on to defeat the 95 win St. Louis Cardinals. The post-season is a cruel mistress.)

In my Colorado Rockies save, with OOTP 18 & 19, we had a three-year stretch with 116 wins, 125 wins, and again 116 wins. Only the 125 win team ended up with a championship. Not in front of my game right now and don't remember the details, but I know somewhere in that stretch we lost some first round match-ups against much weaker (on paper, anyway) wild card teams.

Such is post-season baseball.

Bears5122 · 08-07-2019, 04:01 PM

I read a great article awhile back (can't remember where) that showed that the playoffs are essentially a coin flip. The better teams have a better chance to win, but it was something like 53-55% in a series.

To win a World Series you have to win 3 coin tosses in a role (or 4 if you're the Wild Card). It's a disheartening lesson to learn in baseball. The battle is winning your division and then hoping the Gods are on your side.

If you do hate it, you can expand the series to reduce the luck a bit. I've sometimes made the Wild Card a 3-game series and the division series 7. Heck, you can go up to 9 if you want too. They did that in the early part of the 20th century for a couple years I believe.

Bears5122 · 08-07-2019, 04:01 PM

Edit: Double post

ThePretender · 08-09-2019, 05:23 PM

I'd want to know what the strengths and weaknesses of your team are. You could just have a very strong regular season team but one that can be exposed in the playoffs.

NoOne · 08-13-2019, 03:27 PM

if you have made any changes that could cause a more top-heavy league in comparison to your past experience, it may have reduced it closer to what Bears said above, and maybe it was it bit elevated before? if it was a context where you were seeing weaker teams than you are now, etc... there's plenty of moving parts that could cause slight shifts in that from year to year, in addition to numerous settings we control. looks like they've changed distribution or something in that realm this year. ratings distribution look different, but likely better.

never know for sure just by looking it over.

what bears said is also why it's absolutely ludicrous to pin evaluation of a great team on whether they won a WS (or super bowl etc).. it's just a stupid, unsophisticated, mostly meaningless way to assess a team.

if 45% of the time the worse team wins, on average, that's a huge chunk of the series wins. a good portion of the time the best team doesn't even make it to the WS, lol.

fightingirish595 · 08-13-2019, 07:03 PM

I realized I just gotta work through it and accept it, because if I don’t I’m gonna miss out on a great game. I started one up and won it all my first season. Got upset the next 2 and just won in season 4. Hope to keep it going

NoOne · 08-19-2019, 10:22 AM

i'm irish and i'm offended by your screenname... just kidding.. i've never been to ireland in my life, even if some ancestors are from there.

just do some rough math... even if you think you have a 60-40 chance of winning each series.. if you have 3 series that.s .6^3 which is only a 21.6% chance of winning when you are the clear best team.

the best team typically has 20-25% chance to win or less every year in the MLB. most years the best team does not win. simple math.

playoffs are for tv ratings and short attention-spans. they are fun, though, and i wouldn't do it any other way. it's entertainment, not foreign policy or something actually important beyond arbitrary measures.

don't mortgage your future.. they've made it more difficult to maintain high rate of success this year, but you can still do it. no reason to miss the playoffs except due to numerous catastrophic injuries. it's still wise to trade before players get older.

08-07-2019, 09:15 AM	#1
fightingirish595 Bat Boy Join Date: Oct 2018 Posts: 12	Are playoffs harder in OOTP 20 than older versions I do not want this to be a thread of just me complaining about my 105+win teams getting swept in the first round or losing 2-0 series leads. I am genuinely curious. Am I just running into bad luck or was ootp 19 easier and that is why I had so much success. Thoughts and opinions from your experiences

08-07-2019, 09:25 AM	#2
battists Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 18,506 Blog Entries: 7	Sample size my man Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk __________________ Come check out my dynasty report, Funky Times!

08-07-2019, 09:55 AM	#4
Lukas Berger OOTP Developments Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Nice, Côte d'Azur, France Posts: 19,880	We didn't change anything that would affect this, so surely just a sample size issue. __________________ lukas@ootpdevelopments.com Order Out of the Park Baseball 25! Need to upload files for us to check out? Instructions can be found here

08-07-2019, 12:48 PM	#11
fightingirish595 Bat Boy Join Date: Oct 2018 Posts: 12	In this simulation i just completed, I racked up 107 wins. Lost game 5 of the ALDS to the 86 win rays 2-1. Really tough pill to swallow Attached Images

08-07-2019, 10:26 AM	#6
BirdWatcher Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2018 Location: Denver, Colorado Posts: 4,262	What you are experiencing in 20 is what I experienced in 19. Because, you know, baseball playoffs. (Like the Highlander, at the end there can be only one.)

08-07-2019, 11:58 AM	#10
Bluenoser Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: In The Moment Posts: 13,680	I always go into the playoffs knowing one thing is certain - The team that wins it all is not necessarily the best team, but rather the team that played the best over a 3 - 4 week period. Teams get hot and cold all the time, it happens in the regular season, and it happens in the playoffs.

08-07-2019, 01:34 PM	#12
BirdWatcher Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2018 Location: Denver, Colorado Posts: 4,262	No doubt. The post-season can certainly crush your spirit. (IRL and in OOTP.) (I still remember the 1987 Tigers with their MLB best 98-64 record losing to the 85 win Minnesota Twins 4 games to 1. And of course the Twins then went on to defeat the 95 win St. Louis Cardinals. The post-season is a cruel mistress.) In my Colorado Rockies save, with OOTP 18 & 19, we had a three-year stretch with 116 wins, 125 wins, and again 116 wins. Only the 125 win team ended up with a championship. Not in front of my game right now and don't remember the details, but I know somewhere in that stretch we lost some first round match-ups against much weaker (on paper, anyway) wild card teams. Such is post-season baseball.

08-07-2019, 04:01 PM	#13
Bears5122 All Star Reserve Join Date: Mar 2003 Posts: 846	I read a great article awhile back (can't remember where) that showed that the playoffs are essentially a coin flip. The better teams have a better chance to win, but it was something like 53-55% in a series. To win a World Series you have to win 3 coin tosses in a role (or 4 if you're the Wild Card). It's a disheartening lesson to learn in baseball. The battle is winning your division and then hoping the Gods are on your side. If you do hate it, you can expand the series to reduce the luck a bit. I've sometimes made the Wild Card a 3-game series and the division series 7. Heck, you can go up to 9 if you want too. They did that in the early part of the 20th century for a couple years I believe.

08-09-2019, 05:23 PM	#15
ThePretender All Star Starter Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 1,303	I'd want to know what the strengths and weaknesses of your team are. You could just have a very strong regular season team but one that can be exposed in the playoffs.

08-13-2019, 03:27 PM	#16
NoOne Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,167	if you have made any changes that could cause a more top-heavy league in comparison to your past experience, it may have reduced it closer to what Bears said above, and maybe it was it bit elevated before? if it was a context where you were seeing weaker teams than you are now, etc... there's plenty of moving parts that could cause slight shifts in that from year to year, in addition to numerous settings we control. looks like they've changed distribution or something in that realm this year. ratings distribution look different, but likely better. never know for sure just by looking it over. what bears said is also why it's absolutely ludicrous to pin evaluation of a great team on whether they won a WS (or super bowl etc).. it's just a stupid, unsophisticated, mostly meaningless way to assess a team. if 45% of the time the worse team wins, on average, that's a huge chunk of the series wins. a good portion of the time the best team doesn't even make it to the WS, lol.

08-13-2019, 07:03 PM	#17
fightingirish595 Bat Boy Join Date: Oct 2018 Posts: 12	I realized I just gotta work through it and accept it, because if I don’t I’m gonna miss out on a great game. I started one up and won it all my first season. Got upset the next 2 and just won in season 4. Hope to keep it going

08-19-2019, 10:22 AM	#18
NoOne Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,167	i'm irish and i'm offended by your screenname... just kidding.. i've never been to ireland in my life, even if some ancestors are from there. just do some rough math... even if you think you have a 60-40 chance of winning each series.. if you have 3 series that.s .6^3 which is only a 21.6% chance of winning when you are the clear best team. the best team typically has 20-25% chance to win or less every year in the MLB. most years the best team does not win. simple math. playoffs are for tv ratings and short attention-spans. they are fun, though, and i wouldn't do it any other way. it's entertainment, not foreign policy or something actually important beyond arbitrary measures. don't mortgage your future.. they've made it more difficult to maintain high rate of success this year, but you can still do it. no reason to miss the playoffs except due to numerous catastrophic injuries. it's still wise to trade before players get older.