Harry Lyerly and the Denver Brewers of the WPK

[BirdWatcher]

Originally Posted by Palaaemon

Welcome back Bird!

Hope your vacation time with your family was enjoyable. How was the Whitecaps game with your father?

It was good. The game actually became two games- a doubleheader with both games lasting 7 innings. Saw some possible future Tigers- Parker Meadows and Wenceel Perez. (First game, in a light rain with cool temps, was a 1-0 Ft. Wayne victory, while the second game, with warming temps and the sun coming out, saw the home club win 10-1.) Most interesting part of the experience to me was seeing the 9 or so scouts who sat very near us behind home plate. I would have loved to pick their brains but didn't want to disturb them while they were working.

[BirdWatcher]

Bobby Erbakan, who in the first week of the 1973 Spring Training exhibition schedule was off to one of the best starts on the team (.417/.500/.833), sustained a back strain while running the bases in Sunday's 3-2 victory over the San Francisco Velocity.

Erbakan is expected to be out for 5 weeks, which would place his return about a week into the regular season. Erbakan suffered the same injury in early April of 1971, and needed a month recovery time, missing the start of that regular season as well.

With Erbakan's injury, Andrew Kennedy will get the lion's share of the starts at first base and someone will be given an opportunity to start the season at the big league level who might not otherwise have done so. Will it be outfielder Paul Mackins, who got a similar opportunity early in the 1972 season when Ryan Rodgers had to go on the IL (and who also plays first base)? Or perhaps one of the bat first first baseman- Greg Tietz or Jacob Kieft- who put up great offensive numbers between class A Bainbridge and AA Nashville last season? Or even Joe Willemse, who looks like a potential future utility defensive specialist (with decent contact skills)?
It should be interesting to see how things play out as the rest of the Spring Training schedule unfolds.

[BirdWatcher]

Very bad news today for WPK reigning champs, the Charlotte Sting, as Adam Getchell, one of the key members of their 1972 starting rotation, has been lost for the season before it even starts.
The nearly 28-year old former Brewer has the reputation of being a durable pitcher but a freak collision on the base paths left him with a broken bone in the elbow of his pitching arm and it is expected to take 8-9 months for him to recuperate sufficiently to return to action.

The good news for the Sting is that they have a deep and talented rotation. Much will depend though on the ability of former first round pick (#1 overall in 1969 draft) Lienhart Brown's to remain healthy (fragile) as well as 4th starter Dean Olson to do the same (also fragile.)

[BirdWatcher]

With the Spring Training exhibition season at the half-way point, I thought we would look in on which players have been making statements, which have struggled, who looks like they are in mid-season form and who looks over-matched.

The caveat of course is that these are small sample sizes in meaningless games against varied competition. So we will leave pitching out of it entirely as those sample sizes are particularly insignificant. Other than to say that among starting pitchers Harry Lyerly and Steve Green have performed the best. Still, no reason to believe that once the season starts Cheol-han Lee and Erik Sloan, winners of the last 2 MGL Pitcher-of-the-Year honors, won't be ready.

Among veteran position players, 30-year old 4th outfielder Pat Rondeau (.429/.448/.679) and 34-year old left fielder Ryan Rodgers (.429/.515/.464) have been particularly sharp. Andrew Kennedy (.273/.385/.364) and Chad Brown (.261/.320/.304) haven't been as spectacular but appear to be knocking the rust off just fine.

Two young outfielders who are expected to enter the regular season with important roles on the Brewers, Josh Schaeffer but especially Joe McPhillips, are not putting up great offensive numbers this spring, but both are fantastic in the field, strong runners, and have shown an advanced ability to reach base via the walk. Schaeffer is hitting .200/.355/.240 while McPhillips is at .192/.364/.346.
Mike Foster, after his strong rookie season of 1972, is once again looking like a legit hitter with a slash line of .308/.333/.385. Jonathan Koch, on the other hand, got off to a weak start but has picked it up a bit lately and currently stands at .261/.320/.391.

Among players on the fence for a big league role this season, Paul Mackins has scuffled and likely will start the season at AAA Chester. Mackins has managed a slash line of just .095/.095/.095.
On the other hand, 24-year old first baseman Greg Tietz is making a strong case for inclusion on the Opening Day squad, which could happen with Bobby Erbakan on the IL. Tietz has slugged at a .368/.429/.526 rate this Spring.
Defensively gifted infielder Joe Willemse, after a slow start at the plate, has picked it up of late to put himself in the mix also. Willemse's slash line is .304/.333/.435.
The Brewers first round draft pick from 1971, shortstop Kevin Flieder, has also been a pleasant surprise in camp. Flieder, in addition to providing superb defense, has hit .320/.357/.360.
24-year old left fielder John Flores, who is believed to have good power potential, has not distinguished himself and is hitting .217/.280/.304.

[BirdWatcher]

With no minor league options left and no major league role available to him, 26-year old third baseman Jose Careaga was dealt to Portland, along with 23-year old catcher Alex Hernandez, in exchange for 24-year old center fielder Ryan Hiett and 23-year old shortstop B.J. Ryan.

Careaga was at one time one of the Brewers better prospects in spite of having been a 9th round draft pick in 1965. He had several minor league seasons where he put up impressive offensive numbers. He has since been surpassed by Mike Foster and with several other decent third base options in the organization, including reliever Jordan Stephens, it was time for Careaga to be given a chance to catch on elsewhere. The rebuilding Portland Wild Things is a good place for him to possibly contribute. With aging and fragile superstar Andy Wilson expected to play third for the Wild Things- and with highly questionable defensive skills- Careaga will likely get plenty of opportunities to play in 1973.
Hernandez was similarly a prospect who had been surpassed and was trapped at AAA, where he was quite unhappy.

Neither Hiett nor Drew are expected to ever play key roles in Brewers uniforms but they still have minor league options and could eventually play into bench roles in the future.

[BirdWatcher]

April is just a few days away and Jamel McNeil, the greatest reliever in the game and possibly the most talented pitcher, period, in the WPK, still sits as a free agent without a team.

It appears that he even is looking for a fairly reasonable salary. Yes, I realize we are talking about a reliever here, but this guy is off the charts good. And we aren't talking about your modern closer with his 60-75 innings pitched and 3 to 3.5 WAR at best. This guy has averaged over 138 innings pitched per season in his 8 year career and has racked up 48.0 WAR. He has a career won-loss record of 90-37 with 172 saves, an ERA of 1.76, a WHIP of 0.98 and a career K/9 of 11.7. He is a 5-time Reliever-of-the-Year and 8-time All-Star. The man is a beast.
And universally despised.

Someone is going to give in and sign him. He's just too tempting to leave alone. I've done it myself. Only to trade him mid-season.
He's a clubhouse cancer.
And a Hall-of-Famer.

Who want's Jamel McNeil?
But perhaps even more to the point, how long will we have to wait to find out?

[Palaaemon]

AND!!! He is a freaking Iron Man!

Give me a team, I'll sign his punk buttocks!

[BirdWatcher]

Originally Posted by Palaaemon

AND!!! He is a freaking Iron Man!

Give me a team, I'll sign his punk buttocks!

I know. He's insanely good.
And I am half tempted to sign him again, even though I abandoned that experiment pretty quickly the first time around. I probably place an over-emphasis on team unity and while he didn't wreck my team the first time around he did, well, disrupt it a bit.

I can totally afford him right now. With ease.
But part of the problem also is that I love building from within and I have so many home grown relievers who I think deserve a chance and I hate to give McNeil a spot that one of them would otherwise hold.
Would he help my team be better? Probably.
Can we be good enough without him? Remains to be seen.
Am I going to break down and sign him? Probably not.

[BirdWatcher]

It's not often that a rookie reliever creates a stir in a city before he's even pitched a single inning of big league ball, but such is the case in Oklahoma City with 23-year old righty Jesse Horn. Granted, the Diamond Kings haven't finished above 7th place the past 3 seasons so they might be looking for any ray of hope they can find.
And young Mr. Horn does combine a nasty cutter with an average changeup that still has room for growth and his stuff is considered potentially elite. He also has earned a reputation already as a great teammate, very well liked in any clubhouse.
(It should probably be noted that the ratings here are according to the Brewers scouting staff who like the kid but aren't as high on him as the OSA is.)

[BirdWatcher]

And we have our answer.
The Jacksonville Wolf Pack, perennial power in the SJL, have signed Jamel McNeil for his second stint with the club.
McNeil pitched the second half of the 1968 season for the Wolf Pack- having been traded their by Denver- and all of 1969-1971. In 1970 he went 18-6 with 22 saves and led the league in ERA at 2.35 while pitching for Jacksonville.
It's not surprising that they would be the team to take him on, with all of his talents and all of his personality flaws.

[BirdWatcher]

The Brewers finish with the dubious and insignificant distinction of having the best pre-season record in the MGL, ending the exhibition season 21-9. They absolutely dominated down the stretch, winning 13 of their final 15 games, and with very few of them even being close.

This is the kind of thing that I'll admit makes me nervous, as it sometimes feels like there is an inverse relationship between pre-season success and regular season success. (Logically, of course, there is simply no correlation at all.)

Young left-handed reliever Jeremy Walker was the last cut to get the team down to the regulation 25. Walker looked good in the pre-season and really just needs to improve his control a bit to be a very valuable member of the Denver 'pen. With only one lefty in bullpen currently- Liann-wei Hua- it is likely that Walker will be back soon.
The Brewers will start the season outfielder heavy, as Josh Schaeffer barely survived the final cut after putting up uninspiring offensive numbers in the exhibition season. John Flores, on the other hand, put up strong numbers (.349/.396/.581) and with Bobby Erbakan still on the IL and many of the Brewers best hitters being left-handed, it was decided to keep the right-handed Flores who also provides a little pop to a lineup that doesn't hit a lot of homers.

For what it is worth- and it probably isn't worth much- Pat Rondeau and Andrew Kennedy both had great pre-seasons at the plate. Joe McPhillips numbers overall weren't great, but he was really starting to rake towards the end of the exhibition season. Jonathan Koch and Mike Foster also were hitting quite well the final week and Koch ended up leading the team in HR's with 4.

[BirdWatcher]

With Opening Day here (a handful of teams have already opened the season, and I'll surely be playing the Brewers season opener tonight), I thought I'd step back and discuss a few things that might impact this new season.

First of all, I believe I've mentioned in the past that before each season starts I use an analog process to determine what MLB season the WPK statistical modifiers will be based upon. I use a 20 season range from 1972 to 1991.
This provides 2 chances out of 20 for an outlier statistical season- 1972 on the low offense, great pitching side and 1987 on the high offense, lots of HR's side. Up to now the WPK has leaned a bit more to the low offensive output end of the spectrum, with a few seasons being positively pitching dominated.
When I rolled the 20-sided die last night to determine what 1973 would look like I rolled a 16. Which means the WPK will look something like 1987 MLB statistically this season. This should be interesting.

What does it mean for the Brewers?
Well, for a few Brewers it could definitely mean trouble. I would expect that this is the year Harry Lyerly's poor movement rating catches up with him. It could be a long year for poor Harry, especially as the pre-season projections/predictions seem to indicate that the offensive ramp up will be greater in the MGL than in the SJL. And heaven help him when he faces the Phoenix Speed Devils, who have several lefthanded power hitters in the middle of their lineup (they are projected to hit over 200 HR's as a team in 1973.)
A few other Brewer pitchers also could have some long ball issues. Steve Green, in spite of having a fine movement rating, has shown a propensity to give up HR's in the past and it will be interesting to see how it works out for him this year.

And while the Brewers have a few young players who are starting to show signs of developing power- Joe McPhillips and Jonathan Koch, in particular, though Mike Foster could chip in with double digits as well- overall we are not a power hitting club. Pre-season predictions (I will post the details later) do show the Brewers with the highest batting average in the MGL, and a pretty average number of runs scored. And we do have a number of good gap hitters with speed, so if we can even just achieve a slightly below average number of HR's, we could compete. Our pitching is predicted to remain near the top.

Spoiler alert: the pre-season predictions have Denver finishing 3rd, with 90 wins. If I am understanding correctly how this works in the game, this is likely without factoring in one of our most valuable players- Bobby Erbakan, who is currently on the IL. On the other hand, the predictions show our one hitter among the top 10 in the league being Andrew Kennedy, who is currently the starter at first in place of Erbakan. I have always been high on Kennedy and consider him probably our best pure hitter so I will try to get him plenty of playing time once Erbakan returns. It's a good problem to have, but the challenge is fitting in Erbakan, Kennedy, and Ryan Rodgers into essentially two spots on the diamond. Rodgers can still play a decent center field so he will probably spell youngster Joe McPhillips there quite a bit so that Kennedy gets enough time in left when he's not giving Erbakan a day off at first. Kennedy is also okay in right, but with the addition of Cesar Grajeda and what with trying to ensure Pat Rondeau gets some playing time, this doesn't help much.

I expect the Brewers to compete again this season. Can we reclaim the top spot in the MGL? Impossible to say right now. So much will likely depend upon injuries, especially as some of our close competitors do have some key players who are injury prone. I would stack our starting rotation up against anyone's in the league- even with the possible Lyerly issue this season- and our bullpen is solid if not spectacular. Not as good as the Phoenix bullpen and maybe 1 or 2 others, but better than most.
Our defense should once again be among the best in the league, especially up the middle. (Jonathan Koch looked particularly impressive in the pre-season and if he can hit enough to hold on to the starting job, we should be better up the middle than ever. And with the amazing Oscar Vargas once again providing backup at second, short, and third, we have late inning coverage that is nearly unparalleled.)
Our offense will get on base- with good batting average and OBP skills. We will hit plenty of extra base hits. Just not so many that clear the fence. We have decent team speed, but we aren't expected to be at the top in stolen bases like we used to be in earlier years.

I think we can win the MGL, but I anticipate it being a tight race. The Los Angeles Spinners are the pre-season favorite, with the power-hitting (and dominant bullpen) Phoenix Speed Devils ranked next.

It should be fun.
And it all starts later tonight!

[Palaaemon]

Let's get it on!!!!!

[BirdWatcher]

The prognosticators have spoken and they believe that offense will be up in the WPK this season and that we won't have a repeat of the 1972 World Series.
In fact, they have predicted that the SJL's Columbus Whalers will go from first to worst. It is also expected that the reigning WPK Champs- the Charlotte Sting- will return to a more accustomed spot near the bottom of the MGL standings.

This year's surprise story- the 1973 version of the 1972 Sting- is expected to be the Boston Berserkers, who have never finished higher than 6th place in their SJL history. The MGL is predicted to be won by the Los Angeles Spinners. The Spinners won 101 games in 1971 but still finished in 3rd place and then dropped back to 4th place last year with only 85 wins. They were back-to-back MGL Champs in the first two seasons of the WPK- 1965-1966- and it is thought that they will once again reach that pinnacle this season.

Among the expected top hitters in the SJL are a few new faces. It is thought that rookie Pittsburgh rightfielder Bill Winchester, having jumped up to the big league club from AA, will be not only a strong Rookie of the Year candidate but also likely in the MVP mix. It is also believed that his fellow corner outfielder, 27-year old leftfielder Ron Hack, who has not yet reached 300 plate appearances in his 3 big league season, will have a breakout season and along with Winchester give the Roadrunners a pair of 30+ home run hitters.

Dan Bottom, who appeared in 11 games out of the bullpen for El Paso last year, is expected to be among the best pitchers in the SJL this season, putting him also in the mix for ROY. (Bottom also has the distinction of being #1 on the recently released Top 100 Prospects list. Winchester, interestingly, is listed as #92.)

The best predicted hitters in the MGL is a pretty unsurprising list (though with Felix Lopez and Bobby Erbakan starting the season on the IL, they are conspicuously absent), but one of the bigger surprises is Denver outfielder/first baseman Andrew Kennedy, who has been a good hitter in his career but is expected to kick it up to the next level this season.

Two young starting pitchers, who had good if not spectacular rookie seasons in 1972- Oklahoma City's Gary Marten (7-13, 2.88, 1.7 WAR in 1972) and Brooklyn's Aaron McNally (5-3, 2 saves, 2.86, 1.2 WAR)- are expected to be among the elite pitchers in the MGL in 1973.

[BirdWatcher]

The Brewers begin the 1973 regular season on the road, starting with two games versus the Wild Things in Portland.

And amidst all the talk about a new juiced baseball in the WPK this season, the first game of the season looks like pretty much the same old story, as the Brewers get a great start from Cheol-han Lee, who goes the distance for a 7-hit shutout, and just enough offense, scoring a single run in the 1st inning, to hold on for a 1-0 win. Chad Brown, who often gets off to hot starts at the plate, went 2 for 4 in the win and his keystone partner Jonathan Koch also went 2 for 4. Joe McPhillips came up with the big hit, a 2-out single that scored Andrew Kennedy with the game's lone run.



Erik Sloan and the Brewers bullpen (Jaden Francis, Liann-wei Hua, and Jordan Stephens) combine to hold the Wild Things to just a single run in the second game. While the game was still relatively close heading into the 9th inning, the Brewers then doubled their run total with 4 in the top of the 9th to run away with an 8-1 victory. Kevin Curtis was one of the big hitters for the team, going 3 for 4 and hitting the first HR of the season for the Brewers. Chad Brown went 3 for 5 in the leadoff slot and scored 3 runs in the game.


It's only 2 games, and against a weak opponent, but still it feels good to take the 1st series of the year on the road.

[BirdWatcher]

The Brewers next headed out to San Francisco to take on the Velocity for 3 games in the best pitcher's park- Bank of the West Ballpark- in the WPK.

And in the first game of the series Harry Lyerly picked up where Lee and Sloan had left off, with another solid start, holding the Velocity scoreless over 8 innings pitched. Lyerly gave up just 4 hits, struck out 3 and walked 2 in picking up his first victory of the new season. Mike Foster went 3 for 4 to pace the offense, with Pat Rondeau driving in 2 runs in a 2 for 4 day and Kevin Curtis picking up 2 more RBI with his one single in the game.


Unfortunately, Steve Green could not continue the trend of solid starts from the Brewers rotation early in the season. He was not sharp from the start and ended up giving up 7 runs, 5 earned, in just 5 innings pitched. Although the Brewers offense did a good job getting back into the game, trailing just 7-6 going into the bottom of the 8th, Dave Duncan allowed 3 runs to the Velocity on just 1 hit- a 3-run HR by Danny Sanchez- in the 8th and the Brewers lost 10-6. Mike Foster once again went 2 for 4. Josh Schaeffer, getting his first start of the season, was hitless but walked twice and scored twice.


The pitching got back on track through in the rubber match of the series, with team Captain Matt Helm pitching a good 6 2/3rds innings, allowing just 1 run on 4 hits, and the bullpen- Sam Pruiett, Liann-wei Hua, and Jose de los Santos- was spectacular in holding 1-run lead as the Brewers won 2-1. Andrew Kennedy went 2 for 4 and Chad Brown continued his good start with a 2 for 5 day and picked up his 1st stolen base of the season.

[BirdWatcher]

As we get things underway here in the 1973 season I thought it might be good to see who the superstars of the WPK are currently.
With some of the greatest players of the early days of the WPK having retired or on the decline and not far from hanging up the spikes, which players have emerged, or remain, the top players in the game?

Looking at overall current ratings, both those of the Brewers head scout Nick Meskill and those of the OSA, let's consider Superstar players to be those with 4 1/2 or 5 Star overall ratings. For Meskill that includes just 14 players in the WPK, while the OSA is a bit more generous with 18 earning this distinction. For the most part the two lists overlap with clearly a handful of players that Mr. Meskill does not rate as highly as the OSA and one, not surprisingly a Brewer, that he rates in this category while the OSA rates them slightly below the threshold for super-stardom.

Let's break it down by position:
Among Starting Pitchers, the OSA lists not a soul. Nick Meskill sees Brewers ace Cheol-han Lee as fitting the bill however. It should probably come as no surprise that the three top rated Starting Pitcher's according to the OSA, all just below the arbitrary line I've chosen to affix the superstar label to, are Jake Harris, Chris Hernandez, and Cheol-han.

Three relief pitchers make the cut, according to both the OSA and Meskill.
Will it surprise you that one of them is Jamel McNeil? Well, no, of course it won't. The other two both are in the Phoenix Speed Devils bullpen. First, 35-year old Pat Brooks, probably the most celebrated WPK reliever not named Jamel McNeil. Then 29-year old Taiwanese sidearmer Kee Han, who entered the league just a few years ago as an international free agent and has risen to the top of the profession as a key member of that fantastic Phoenix 'pen.



There is one superstar catcher in the WPK: San Antonio's 26-year old Erik Buonopane. On that the OSA and Meskill agree. And after Buonopane you have to work your way down the list quite a distance before you find another catcher. (L.A.'s Greg Foster according the OSA, while Meskill rates Foster and his own team's Kevin Curtis equally.)


According to the OSA, Los Angeles' veteran Travis Johnson (formerly a left fielder) is the lone superstar first baseman in the WPK. Meskill thinks that is one too many. Both the OSA and Meskill though agree that there are several first baseman, including Denver's Bobby Erbakan, who are at the rung just below super-stardom.


(Second part of this list in next post.)

[BirdWatcher]

Second base is currently a hot spot in the WPK, with 4 superstar players at the position according to the OSA (Meskill agrees on only 3 of them.)

San Antonio's 26-year old sparkplug Jared Hancock, Baltimore's 24-year old Randy Keisel, and Seattle's long-time star Mike Robinette are the three the OSA and Meskill agree upon, while the OSA also includes Jacksonville's Josh Jenkins in the mix.




Thirdbase features a couple of old lions and one rising cub. The OSA and Meskill both agree that Jesus Hernandez is still the standard bearer for this position. The OSA also still considers slugging 37-year old Jamison Bash a superstar and gives this distinction to 25-year old rising Boston Berserker star Kasey O'Neil. (Meskill does not believe either quite make the cut.)




(Part 3 in next post.)

[BirdWatcher]

The youngest bonafide superstar in the WPK is San Antonio's 22-year old shortstop Bud Lindsay. The only other shortstop to earn the moniker is Portland's 26-year old Chris Tobin.




The only left fielder to make the cut for both the OSA and Meskill is Denver's veteran Ryan Rodgers. The OSA, however, also believes that Jacksonville's Hector Alvares merits the distinction.


There are two superstar center fielders in the WPK according to both the OSA and Meskill: Brooklyn's Felix Lopez and Washington's Lazaro Lowndes. Given that these two are the current reigning league MVP's, it should come as no surprise to see them on this list.




And that's it. Not a single right fielder made the cut for either the OSA or Nick Meskill. Several came close, with Seattle's Kyle Doss likely leading the way. But none are quite there yet.

You may have noticed that San Antonio kept popping up. They are tied with Jacksonville for most on the list with 3. And given that they all play up the middle- catcher, second base, shortstop- and are all 26 or younger (including 22-year old Lindsay), and the fact that they have another 22-year old just below this level as well as the great veteran starting pitcher Chris Hernandez, one would imagine things might be looking up for the Keys soon.

[BirdWatcher]

The Brewers conclude their first road trip of the season with a double-header in Oklahoma City. A little 2-game series in a single day in OKC.

The first game looked like quite a pitching mismatch, with Oklahoma City sending out their 30-year old ace, Reece Vaughan, while 25-year old Trinidad, Colorado native Eric Johnson got the start for the Brewers, just the third of his WPK career. But as it turned out, Johnson did a fine job of dueling with Vaughan, working 6 innings, giving up 1 run on 6 hits, striking out 2 and walking 2. Johnson left the game with a 1-1 tie. The Brewers re-took the lead in the top of the 8th, but Oklahoma City, as they had also done in the 6th inning, got a solo HR to tie the game up again. Then, with Jordan Stephens on the mound for Denver, former Brewer Jordan Gallardo, known for his speed and defense, not his power bat, came up with a man and 1-out and, naturally, hit the game-winning walk-off HR.

In the night-cap, the Diamond Kings built a picket fence in the first 3 innings against Cheol-han Lee and then held on, in spite of their starting pitcher Andy Ortega having to leave the game in the 4th with what was later diagnosed as a tired arm, for the 3-1 victory. And guess how the Diamond Kings got on the board in the first? That's right, a lead-off solo HR off the bat of Jordan Gallardo.