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Old 10-17-2018, 07:20 PM   #1
Joshrapley
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Join Date: Jun 2016
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When To Offer Contracts To Arbitration Players

Not so much of beginner but always struggle to know at what point is the optimal time to offer a player in arbitration an extension. I have been playing as the A's and eventually lost Matt Chapman and Matt Olsen to Free Agency as by the time I offered them an extension they both wanted $30M per season.

Obviously if you offer young players extensions too early then you lose that cheap minimum contract.

I now just end wait until the arbitration is too much and trade them for younger assets but now want to have a mixture a couple of long term stars signed to reasonable long contracts mixed in with younger players.

I guess there is a skill as to when to offer to get the balance of a cheap controlable contract but not extending too late when they are asking for $35M a year.

Just interested to know anyones thoughts on this? I am not trying to cheat the system just wanted to understand other peoples tactics with this especially when playing as small market teams.
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Old 10-18-2018, 05:05 PM   #2
NoOne
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i offer in arbitration years... the takers are the ones i keep. (assumes club-friendly contract).

you don't have to overpay during the initial years. i typically even it out or tailor it to current salary obligations over next few years. i'd rather spend what i can now than kick the can down the road.

a lot of this has to do with speculating what the guy will demand later. understand a break-even point where you'd rather let them go to FA and try to sign them for cheaper, if likely.

early isn't a problem, the math almost always evens out... and if it doesn't you shouldn't sign that extension. this is more likely to occur later than earlier. you don't typically get a guy in year 4 asking for the highest contract in MLB even if rated as such.

where you'll get hurt is when you think someone is better than what they actually are or they degrade and become a bad value contract.

age is a concern too. it affects ability to trade and value of contract. anything past 30-32 for a batter is sketchy.. over ~30-32 for SP and over ~33-35 for RPs are all sketchy propositions. the benefit of signing earlier is that you can let them hit FA at the beginnings of their decline or slightly before.
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