True player values, are they fixed?

[Cactusguy21]

Hi, I have a question about Ootp 19. In the game, are the true player values fixed, or do they change in each individual career I start? Sorry if that didn't make sense, let me give an example.

Take Orioles 2B Jonathan Schoop. He had several middling careers, then a breakout year. Now let's say I had him on my team, and he went back to being a middling hitter for ten years down the road. If I were to play a different Orioles franchise, once again having Schoop, and assuming the impact of injuries is negligible (which is rare, but this is a thought experiment), would there be a chance that Schoop becomes a superstar?

Another example is with prospects. Let's say that LHP Tanner Scott is a bust in one series I do. Would that mean that in every single orioles franchise I play, he's gonna be a bust? Is there a fixed value that says "Tanner Scott is in reality a 2-star player", or could Tanner Scott's true value be 4-star in a different franchise, or 1-star in a third? Obviously we'd never know the true value for certain, but you get what I mean.

[stealofhome]

In general, the game will develop the player around some range of their skill ratings. There is a setting called Talent Change Randomness which will change players true talent level randomly (so Schoop could become a bust or a superstar). You can mess with that setting to make that happen more or less often as you would like.

Historical settings are different. I'm not very familiar with them, but I believe you can either have players develop according to their real life career (Babe Ruth will always be a superstar) or according to the OOTP development engine (Babe Ruth could be a bust).

[Cactusguy21]

Cool, thank you.

But so that means they did indeed fix their values? How did that work for prospects and not-yet drafted players? How did they determine who would have the true talent set of a bust and who would have the true talent set of a star?

[stealofhome]

The historical players are based on their real stats. The current 2018 prospects and draftees are based on projections and scouting reports. The players in the future are just randomly generated as fictional players.

[NoOne]

they will be the same* initially, then 'things' can happen. tcr, developement under a certain age etc etc.

*- in cases of historic players, also relative to settings for how their ratings are calculated of course. plug-n-play equations, so you get same results from each with the same inputs.

the undrafted or very young will be like a fictionally created player for the draft, but potential will be based on your settings choices for ratings and career #s and current ability will just be some lesser version of that -- possibly based on rl or just some ~% or %range of it per rating.

the overall rating isn't always perfect, even though it is a medium-to-strong correlation, obviously. in other words, you can find players with lower overall that perform better than players with higher overall.

[TGH-Adfabre]

Originally Posted by Cactusguy21

Cool, thank you.

But so that means they did indeed fix their values? How did that work for prospects and not-yet drafted players? How did they determine who would have the true talent set of a bust and who would have the true talent set of a star?

No, their true value is not maintained through their career.
Their starting value is always the same. The career that they have is up to the development engine. True players do not maintain an advantage over fictional players when it comes to maintaining their ratings. The Talent Change Randomness is applied to all players in the same way.

[TGH-Adfabre]

Originally Posted by Cactusguy21

Cool, thank you.

But so that means they did indeed fix their values? How did that work for prospects and not-yet drafted players? How did they determine who would have the true talent set of a bust and who would have the true talent set of a star?

They do not determine the "true talent set" of any players. For prospects they use a projection system. I cannot remember the one they used for 19. It may be Pecota:
https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/p...b-projections/
I cannot remember, someone here knows. It is public information.

They also hand rate all of the top prospects and draftees in the game. Once that is complete and you sim your first day the injury and development system takes over. These players do not have a hidden advantage or bonus that causes them to have an advantage over other players in the system. The only advantage is that higher ratings will be less effected by talent drops. This applies to any player that is highly rated.

Take Orioles 2B Jonathan Schoop. He had several middling careers, then a breakout year. Now let's say I had him on my team, and he went back to being a middling hitter for ten years down the road. If I were to play a different Orioles franchise, once again having Schoop, and assuming the impact of injuries is negligible (which is rare, but this is a thought experiment), would there be a chance that Schoop becomes a superstar?

Schoop can become a superstar. I am not familiar with Schoop, if he is in his late 20's or older the odds of him improving his ratings are lower than when he is young due to the mirroring of real life by the development engine.

Another example is with prospects. Let's say that LHP Tanner Scott is a bust in one series I do. Would that mean that in every single orioles franchise I play, he's gonna be a bust? Is there a fixed value that says "Tanner Scott is in reality a 2-star player"

No he will not always bust. Again, I do not know this player. If he is poor enough then it may take 500 sims for him to become a star because he is starting from low skill ratings and has along way to go up.

Historical settings can be changed. They can be recalculated from one season to another, they can be turned completely over to the development engine and development can be turned off and all players locked at their ratings.

[Cactusguy21]

Sorry about picking obscure Orioles for my example lol, but I'm only really familiar with their farm system.

And okay, thanks for all the help!

[TGH-Adfabre]

Originally Posted by Cactusguy21

Sorry about picking obscure Orioles for my example lol, but I'm only really familiar with their farm system.

And okay, thanks for all the help!

No problem, you could have picked 20 teams and I would not have known their prospects.
Good luck,
Tom (LP)

[Sowega]

This was the exact question I had and makes sense. In sum, both existing players and prospects / draftees (both fictional and real) start out with their “base” ratings which are grounded in either realistic results for current players or scouting/projection logic for ones not in MLB yet. Then the OOTP system takes over once you start your sim and it branches off from their into a maze of possibilities.

However, the starting ratings play a big role especially early on. Jacob Degrom is in his prime and short of injury he’s not likely to decline. Another example, Hunter Greene was one of the top draft prospects entering 2017 draft. He has strong potential ratings, but if you ran 10 sims I’d be surprised if he’s a star In more than half. This is due to injury, TCR, development uncertainty in the OOTP game which mimics the uncertainty of real life prospects development. The bust rate of top prospects is very high! There is research backing this up.

So, I couldn’t just draft Hunter Greene in each sim and expect he will become a star if he was a stud in my first sim.


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[NoOne]

it's still very useful to be familiar with the better prospects. you can see through scouting inaccuracy for the first 3-4 drafts or so. if they don't develop you know for sure it's tcr or they simply didn't reach potential.

it may not be perfect, but it's a huge advantage for sure. i typically play at least 1 league of current year players for 5-10 years or more. many names carryover for a few years so you only have to learn a few players each year and see whose stock has dropped/risen.

[jimmysthebestcop]

Originally Posted by NoOne

it's still very useful to be familiar with the better prospects. you can see through scouting inaccuracy for the first 3-4 drafts or so. if they don't develop you know for sure it's tcr or they simply didn't reach potential.

it may not be perfect, but it's a huge advantage for sure. i typically play at least 1 league of current year players for 5-10 years or more. many names carryover for a few years so you only have to learn a few players each year and see whose stock has dropped/risen.

Yeah most files I see Vlad Jr to be at least an all star if not more but 1 file he was an absolute bust like not even AAA player. No injuries. Just luck of the TCR gods.

Another TCR God example when you trade a no name catcher with awful stats his entire career then 2 years later he is hitting 300 and 50 bombs with 90+ rbis. And is MVP 2 years running.

[NoOne]

i'm not a fan of TCR. i have it set to "20"

i can still see what you are speaking of, but probably not as often.

correa, lindor, beer, bergman, brain fart... should be able to name more, and those are all old ones already in the league now. i guess i am not playing real mlb much anymore. vlad jr. used to be an IAFA. only the first class of those guys are real from what i know.

[Sowega]

Originally Posted by NoOne

it's still very useful to be familiar with the better prospects. you can see through scouting inaccuracy for the first 3-4 drafts or so. if they don't develop you know for sure it's tcr or they simply didn't reach potential.



it may not be perfect, but it's a huge advantage for sure. i typically play at least 1 league of current year players for 5-10 years or more. many names carryover for a few years so you only have to learn a few players each year and see whose stock has dropped/risen.

If I understand you correctly, I would not want to look at the prospects true ratings in the Editor b/c that would be to me an unfair advantage. I’ve only played 2 modern sims but if I know the “true ratings” even with TCR and injury risk I’d be able to just take my chances with the cream of the crop like Kyle Wright every time. To each his own.


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[TGH-Adfabre]

Originally Posted by Sowega

If I understand you correctly, I would not want to look at the prospects true ratings in the Editor b/c that would be to me an unfair advantage. I’ve only played 2 modern sims but if I know the “true ratings” even with TCR and injury risk I’d be able to just take my chances with the cream of the crop like Kyle Wright every time. To each his own.


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Agreed, if a players starting ratings are higher they are going to have a better chance. Especially because OOTP tends to push down ratings more than up. It is more common for prospects to lose value than to gain it.