Vote For MLB NL MVP

[The Game]

Wasn't sure if I should post this here or not so Mod feel free to move it. Its more of a question than a poll.


So the 2033 MLB NL MVP race has me a bit baffled. Octavio Garcia clearly has the best WAR but how much weight should go to a guy that tied the all time Single Season Hits record while winning a batting title?


Both Gonzalez & O. Garcia are benefited by playing in Coors but its not like Chase is a hard place to hit in either. I included Ongeri, i am expect him to finish last in voting.



So who should win and why? My vote is for Carlton Garcia. At the end of the season i do manual voting but i ask the AI. I only do manual so i can get the Golden Spikes winners.

[The Game]

I started with 1999 Historical, that why Ichiro is not on top of the Single Season Hits list.

[CBeisbol]

Based of the incomplete information that you've given (why do people post about who should be the MVP then only give information about how the players hit. Other than WAR which includes defense and base running), it's O. Garcia and not particularly close.

Sure, C Garcia has 35 more hits, but O Garcia had 52 more walks.
Another way to say that, O Garcia made 411 outs. C Garcia made 445 outs.

Sure, the stadiums are a factor. But OPS+, which is an inferior measure to wRC+, attempts to account for that and has O Garcia as the better hitter.

We don't have much information about base running or defense (other than that which we can infer from WAR) but it looks like both were above average base stealers, C Garcia providing a bit more value but not near enough to catch up to Garcia's lead in hitting. Again, no information on defense but a SS already has a big lead on a third baseman. So, unless C Garcia was a much better defensive 3B than O Garcia was a defensive SS, and there' zero reason to believe that that's true, he's not going to catch up to O Garcia's better hitting.

[The Game]

Originally Posted by CBeisbol

Based of the incomplete information that you've given (why do people post about who should be the MVP then only give information about how the players hit. Other than WAR which includes defense and base running), it's O. Garcia and not particularly close.

Sure, C Garcia has 35 more hits, but O Garcia had 52 more walks.
Another way to say that, O Garcia made 411 outs. C Garcia made 445 outs.

Sure, the stadiums are a factor. But OPS+, which is an inferior measure to wRC+, attempts to account for that and has O Garcia as the better hitter.

We don't have much information about base running or defense (other than that which we can infer from WAR) but it looks like both were above average base stealers, C Garcia providing a bit more value but not near enough to catch up to Garcia's lead in hitting. Again, no information on defense but a SS already has a big lead on a third baseman. So, unless C Garcia was a much better defensive 3B than O Garcia was a defensive SS, and there' zero reason to believe that that's true, he's not going to catch up to O Garcia's better hitting.

It's rare for a MLB player to win the MVP based on defense. i like defense.
Carlton Garcia 5 E +3.7 ZR

Octavio Garcia 33 E -4.6 ZR

Ongeri has 4 GG as it is 11 E +6.5 ZR
Gonzalez 10 E -12.7 ZR

[CBeisbol]

Originally Posted by The Game

It's rare for a MLB player to win the MVP based on defense.

I don't really know what this means

Yes, defense tends to have a smaller magnitude of difference than offense. It would be almost impossible for the best defensive player to produce as much defensively as the best offensive player produces offensively.

But the best defensive player can certainly be a better player than the best offensive player.

Carlton Garcia 5 E +3.7 ZR

Octavio Garcia 33 E -4.6 ZR

Ongeri has 4 GG as it is 11 E +6.5 ZR
Gonzalez 10 E -12.7 ZR

Assuming that O and C Garcia both played about a full defensive season, then they are roughly equal defensively - about a 3 run advantage for C Garcia. That doesn't make up for C Garcia's 34 extra outs at the plate.

SS = +7.5 runs
3B = +2.5 runs

O Garcia = +7.5 - 4.6 = 2.9 runs
C Garcia = +2.5 + 3.7 = 6.2 runs

1B = -12.5 runs
Gonzalez = -12.5 - 12.7 = -25.2 runs

Gonzalez falls WAAAAY off with about 30 less defensive runs than the Garcias.

Ongeri = +7.5 + 6.5 = 14 runs

Ongeri makes up some ground here, but his 100 less PA's is too much to overcome. Unless one wants to make a(n) (reasonable) argument that Ongeri's lack of PA's was the fault of his teammates and shouldn't be held against him

Doing some (tempted to use a phrase I recently learned here on the OOTP forums, but I'm unsure how I feel about a certain word) back-of-the-envelope math:
Ongeri keeps the full 14 defensive runs
We'll subtract those from his, roughly, 80 runs (1 WAR is about equal to 10 runs) to get 66. We'll divide 66 runs by 677 PA's and multiply by 765 to get him to about the same playing time as the Garcias, and we get 75 runs. Add the 14 runs back in and he's up to 89 runs. About equal to C Garcia, but still lagging O Garcia significantly.