Do you have a "type"?

BaseballGoodToMe · 02-25-2019, 02:23 AM

Is there one type of player, besides the obvious MVP/Cy Young types, that you find yourself consistently overvaluing and being burned by? Speedy leadoff, slugger, LOOGY? For me I'm finding it's the last one, excluding my fan favorite free agent closer who's a closer not a specialist, left handed reliever just haven't worked for me so far.

hfield007 · 02-25-2019, 03:11 AM

Forever burned by untouchable stuff mixed with poor movement relievers.

Break my heart every time

andjbock · 02-25-2019, 08:06 AM

Contact-only players. Some of them have no gap or eye and it makes for a .290 avg and .293 slg.

GoPedro99 · 02-25-2019, 09:00 AM

High contact/gap/avoid k hitters with good speed and defense. Love em

neugey · 02-25-2019, 10:19 AM

I seem to overvalue the starters and long relievers with really high stamina thinking I'm going to outlast the competition. It rarely works out that way.

Jamee999 · 02-25-2019, 11:34 AM

Kinda like Helena Bonham Carter mixed with Lorelai Gilmore mixed with Christina Hendricks...

wait, what were we talking about?

polydamas · 02-25-2019, 12:04 PM

I'm pretty sure I overvalue high personality players. Especially high work ethic for positional players. I jealously horde them.

NoOne · 02-25-2019, 01:51 PM

guys, stop doing that, if you know it doesn't work

(to the posts that specifically said so)

----

the loogy thing... i'd rely on hindsight to form any preferences/concepts to apply for something with a sample like that... e.g. any RP/SU/CL/bench player or vsL platoon stats from 1 year.

look at a period of time where he was rated similar to when you have them, and with that larger sample, what do their numbers look like? they had the ~same probability of hitting those numbers at any point in that time frame no matter what they did in any small-sample season during that window.

while you cannot do anything for that player with that information, you can learn from it. trust the baselines of past success, for example. you knw even though a small sample is showing you a 7.60ERA, he's still the best option. only if it turns into an abject dumpster fire for a prolonged period of time should you think otherwise.

with RP, i love to use their game logs over anything else during a single season. how often are they having a bad outing? for the most part, a bad outing is a game-killer, not always but likely a medium to strong correlation. so, i don't care if they give up 3runs or 7 in one outing, but their era and other stats do and wildly so. if they are giving me 4 out of 5 (just puling out of hat, not an ideal rate, either) good outings, i'm not going to react to poor statistics in a small sample size.

----

i used to be very specific for my leadoff guy, but i find i can get as much and possibly more rs+rbi at leadoff than 7th in lineup most years with same person. so, a guy that can hit HR and take walks is a good leadoff for me over batting 7th+. only *possibly more because more traditional raking spots need to be filled and less likely to have an elite power hitter extra to bat leadoff.

30+hr leadoff isn't a waste if he's batting 7-8-9 otherwise... (7? i feel good about 7, but 8/9 i'd bet the house on that)

koohead · 02-25-2019, 03:40 PM

I'm always finding myself filling out the 23rd-25th spots on my roster with defensive wizards who have no bat, thinking they will help me with late inning substitutions and key situations during the season.

andjbock · 02-25-2019, 03:57 PM

I also fill out my AAA affiliate with unsigned former players of mine. Usually the 40 year olds who just won't retire.

Findest2001 · 02-25-2019, 09:04 PM

Toolsy, no-contact guys, like Keon Broxton who hit .220 with an obp of .295 but get 15-20 HR and 15-30 SB. I need to start going after high-OBP guys.
For pitching I prefer guys who underperform their FIP.

BaseballGoodToMe · 02-25-2019, 11:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by koohead

I'm always finding myself filling out the 23rd-25th spots on my roster with defensive wizards who have no bat, thinking they will help me with late inning substitutions and key situations during the season.

I spent my 2021 season saddled with a Rule 5 guy(released from AAA in middle of 2022), 20/20 CF position with 19 speed, but never had many leads to protect. And I definitely keep AAA and AA loaded with mid to late 20s players of that type, hoping one of them can hit.

02-25-2019, 02:23 AM	#1
BaseballGoodToMe Minors (Single A) Join Date: May 2018 Posts: 97	Do you have a "type"? Is there one type of player, besides the obvious MVP/Cy Young types, that you find yourself consistently overvaluing and being burned by? Speedy leadoff, slugger, LOOGY? For me I'm finding it's the last one, excluding my fan favorite free agent closer who's a closer not a specialist, left handed reliever just haven't worked for me so far.

02-25-2019, 01:51 PM	#8
NoOne Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,167	guys, stop doing that, if you know it doesn't work (to the posts that specifically said so) ---- the loogy thing... i'd rely on hindsight to form any preferences/concepts to apply for something with a sample like that... e.g. any RP/SU/CL/bench player or vsL platoon stats from 1 year. look at a period of time where he was rated similar to when you have them, and with that larger sample, what do their numbers look like? they had the ~same probability of hitting those numbers at any point in that time frame no matter what they did in any small-sample season during that window. while you cannot do anything for that player with that information, you can learn from it. trust the baselines of past success, for example. you knw even though a small sample is showing you a 7.60ERA, he's still the best option. only if it turns into an abject dumpster fire for a prolonged period of time should you think otherwise. with RP, i love to use their game logs over anything else during a single season. how often are they having a bad outing? for the most part, a bad outing is a game-killer, not always but likely a medium to strong correlation. so, i don't care if they give up 3runs or 7 in one outing, but their era and other stats do and wildly so. if they are giving me 4 out of 5 (just puling out of hat, not an ideal rate, either) good outings, i'm not going to react to poor statistics in a small sample size. ---- i used to be very specific for my leadoff guy, but i find i can get as much and possibly more rs+rbi at leadoff than 7th in lineup most years with same person. so, a guy that can hit HR and take walks is a good leadoff for me over batting 7th+. only possibly more because more traditional raking spots need to be filled and less likely to have an elite power hitter extra to bat leadoff. 30+hr leadoff isn't a waste if he's batting 7-8-9 otherwise... (7? i feel good about 7, but 8/9 i'd bet the house on that) Last edited by NoOne; 02-25-2019 at 02:00 PM.*

02-25-2019, 03:40 PM	#9
koohead Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Phoenix, AZ Posts: 3,137	I'm always finding myself filling out the 23rd-25th spots on my roster with defensive wizards who have no bat, thinking they will help me with late inning substitutions and key situations during the season. __________________ GM - New Jersey Bears of the NPBL;

02-25-2019, 03:11 AM	#2
hfield007 All Star Starter Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 1,650	Forever burned by untouchable stuff mixed with poor movement relievers. Break my heart every time

02-25-2019, 08:06 AM	#3
andjbock Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Somerville, MA, USA Bats: Right Throws: Left Posts: 3,621	Contact-only players. Some of them have no gap or eye and it makes for a .290 avg and .293 slg.

02-25-2019, 09:00 AM	#4
GoPedro99 All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2015 Posts: 856	High contact/gap/avoid k hitters with good speed and defense. Love em

02-25-2019, 10:19 AM	#5
neugey All Star Reserve Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 805 Blog Entries: 39	I seem to overvalue the starters and long relievers with really high stamina thinking I'm going to outlast the competition. It rarely works out that way.

02-25-2019, 11:34 AM	#6
Jamee999 All Star Reserve Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 769	Kinda like Helena Bonham Carter mixed with Lorelai Gilmore mixed with Christina Hendricks... wait, what were we talking about?

02-25-2019, 12:04 PM	#7
polydamas All Star Reserve Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 598	I'm pretty sure I overvalue high personality players. Especially high work ethic for positional players. I jealously horde them.

02-25-2019, 03:57 PM	#10
andjbock Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Somerville, MA, USA Bats: Right Throws: Left Posts: 3,621	I also fill out my AAA affiliate with unsigned former players of mine. Usually the 40 year olds who just won't retire.

02-25-2019, 09:04 PM	#11
Findest2001 All Star Reserve Join Date: Aug 2011 Location: Boston Posts: 960	Toolsy, no-contact guys, like Keon Broxton who hit .220 with an obp of .295 but get 15-20 HR and 15-30 SB. I need to start going after high-OBP guys. For pitching I prefer guys who underperform their FIP.