$$ / WAR & WAR Decline from Peak

MKG1734 · 04-29-2015, 02:12 PM

From a different thread, I noticed a statement which made me think about something, and so I'll ask...

Quote:

WAR values a win at $6 million a season

Quote:

Once a player peaks, WAR declines about .5 per season

These two statements were made in the thread and are true based on real-life statistical analysis. 1-WAR is worth approx. $6MM/season, and the average decline is 0.5 WAR/season after peak is reached.

The question with regard to OOTP, though... has anyone studied how much $$ 1-WAR is worth in OOTP (using default settings for modern day)? Has anyone performed this test to find out? Does anyone have this breakdown?

Furthermore, we can see if OOTP is correctly aging players (default settings) by determining if the average WAR declines 0.5/season from peak.

Has anyone run these tests, yet?

RchW · 04-29-2015, 02:31 PM

Take on the task. It would be great work.

Matt Arnold · 04-30-2015, 09:24 AM

Please keep in mind that those are generic numbers. For example, in real life, relievers are paid way more than 6M/WAR on average, and defense tends to be paid less than market value.

But yeah, certainly if anyone wants to run the numbers, I'm all ears

MKG1734 · 05-06-2015, 10:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matt Arnold

Please keep in mind that those are generic numbers. For example, in real life, relievers are paid way more than 6M/WAR on average, and defense tends to be paid less than market value.

But yeah, certainly if anyone wants to run the numbers, I'm all ears

Okay. I am planning on attempting to start tracking this to run the numbers for everyone, including the developers.

Before I do....does anyone have any suggestions on ways to go about it that maybe I haven't thought of yet?

jaa36 · 05-07-2015, 12:07 AM

Well, first of all, remember that the $6M/WAR figure that you quoted is far from a fixed value and likely to increase every year in real life. There was a Fangraphs article from a year ago (The Cost of a Win in the 2014 Off-Season | FanGraphs Baseball) that estimated the cost of a win more as between $5-7M at that time, but I don't think they repeated the analysis for the 2015 offseason.

And also, remember that this is the cost per win (WAR) on the open market. If you included players that are not freely available (pre-arb or arb-eligible players) the number would be substantially lower. So to find the cost per win you would have to look at just free agents in the offseason, what they sign for, and what their projected WAR is.

This calculation will probably be much closer to $6M with OOTP15 than in would have been in any previous year, because they fixed the WAR calculation this year.

MKG1734 · 05-07-2015, 12:40 AM

Quote:

So to find the cost per win you would have to look at just free agents in the offseason, what they sign for, and what their projected WAR is.

This calculation will probably be much closer to $6M with OOTP15 than in would have been in any previous year, because they fixed the WAR calculation this year.

This is what I planned on doing. And, the cost/war in 2015 should be relatively close to the $6-7MM range, which the OOTP MLB Quickstart should indicate with the first class of free agents. Since inflation will not occur in the game, each successive offseason should produce similar $/WAR results (which I will also test).

I'm interested to find out how well OOTP's MLB Quickstart's financials mimic real life.

Quote:

For example, in real life, relievers are paid way more than 6M/WAR on average, and defense tends to be paid less than market value

I understand....I'm with it when it comes to understanding the financial breakdowns and correlations and what should and should not be taken into account ... it is what I do for a living, after all : )

jarmenia · 10-26-2015, 11:02 AM

Was this ever done? I'd like to do the same thing on my fictional league but I'm finding it difficult to get the data out.

RchW · 10-26-2015, 12:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jaa36

Well, first of all, remember that the $6M/WAR figure that you quoted is far from a fixed value and likely to increase every year in real life. There was a Fangraphs article from a year ago (The Cost of a Win in the 2014 Off-Season | FanGraphs Baseball) that estimated the cost of a win more as between $5-7M at that time, but I don't think they repeated the analysis for the 2015 offseason.

And also, remember that this is the cost per win (WAR) on the open market. If you included players that are not freely available (pre-arb or arb-eligible players) the number would be substantially lower. So to find the cost per win you would have to look at just free agents in the offseason, what they sign for, and what their projected WAR is.

This calculation will probably be much closer to $6M with OOTP15 than in would have been in any previous year, because they fixed the WAR calculation this year.

There are tables of $/WAR by position. 1B is about $8M-$10M AFAIK

jarmenia · 10-26-2015, 08:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RchW

There are tables of $/WAR by position. 1B is about $8M-$10M AFAIK

Can you point me to them please? I'm struggling to find them.

Thanks

RonCo · 10-26-2015, 10:51 PM

On a related, but different subject, do we know how does OOTP calculate it's WAR values for hitters and pitchers?

tejdog1 · 10-27-2015, 02:34 AM

The MLB FA market is a total farce and has been since 2009. I fully expect something like 8-9m/WAR this winter. It's absurd.

It's why I never bitched about the payroll being so low, I went the total opposite, I wanted them to blow it up in 2011-2013 and trade everybody. Reyes, Wright, Santana, Bay, etc... and tank it.

Imagine the Mets as currently constructed, PLUS Correa and Bryant.

But anyway, OOTP doesn't handle inflation at all, you'd have to change the financial coefficient.

Pacoheadley · 10-28-2015, 12:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tejdog1

The MLB FA market is a total farce and has been since 2009. I fully expect something like 8-9m/WAR this winter. It's absurd.

It's why I never bitched about the payroll being so low, I went the total opposite, I wanted them to blow it up in 2011-2013 and trade everybody. Reyes, Wright, Santana, Bay, etc... and tank it.

Imagine the Mets as currently constructed, PLUS Correa and Bryant.

But anyway, OOTP doesn't handle inflation at all, you'd have to change the financial coefficient.

Don't change the financial coefficient, that would also change current contracts. Changing the financial values (upping everything 5% a year, for example) would be the way to model inflation. I do it this way, and have been pleased with the results.

04-29-2015, 02:31 PM	#2
RchW Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: The big smoke Posts: 15,628	Take on the task. It would be great work. __________________ Cheers RichW If you’re looking for a good cause to donate money to please consider a Donation to Parkinson’s Canada. It may help me have a better future and if not me, someone else. Thanks. “Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition …There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect.” Frank Wilhoit

10-26-2015, 11:02 AM	#7
jarmenia Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Tampa, FL USA Posts: 4,503	Was this ever done? I'd like to do the same thing on my fictional league but I'm finding it difficult to get the data out. __________________ When is good enough, good enough?

10-27-2015, 02:34 AM	#11
tejdog1 All Star Starter Join Date: Nov 2010 Location: Danbury, CT Posts: 1,618	The MLB FA market is a total farce and has been since 2009. I fully expect something like 8-9m/WAR this winter. It's absurd. It's why I never bitched about the payroll being so low, I went the total opposite, I wanted them to blow it up in 2011-2013 and trade everybody. Reyes, Wright, Santana, Bay, etc... and tank it. Imagine the Mets as currently constructed, PLUS Correa and Bryant. But anyway, OOTP doesn't handle inflation at all, you'd have to change the financial coefficient. __________________ It's amazing How you make your face just like a wall How you take your heart and turn it off How I turn my head and lose it all And it's unnerving How just one move puts me by myself There you go just trusting someone else Now I know I put us both through hell ~Matchbox 20, "Leave" Everyone knows it's spelled "TRAID", not trade

04-30-2015, 09:24 AM	#3
Matt Arnold OOTP Developer Join Date: Jun 2009 Location: Here and there Posts: 14,136	Please keep in mind that those are generic numbers. For example, in real life, relievers are paid way more than 6M/WAR on average, and defense tends to be paid less than market value. But yeah, certainly if anyone wants to run the numbers, I'm all ears

05-07-2015, 12:07 AM	#5
jaa36 Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 3,031	Well, first of all, remember that the $6M/WAR figure that you quoted is far from a fixed value and likely to increase every year in real life. There was a Fangraphs article from a year ago (The Cost of a Win in the 2014 Off-Season \| FanGraphs Baseball) that estimated the cost of a win more as between $5-7M at that time, but I don't think they repeated the analysis for the 2015 offseason. And also, remember that this is the cost per win (WAR) on the open market. If you included players that are not freely available (pre-arb or arb-eligible players) the number would be substantially lower. So to find the cost per win you would have to look at just free agents in the offseason, what they sign for, and what their projected WAR is. This calculation will probably be much closer to $6M with OOTP15 than in would have been in any previous year, because they fixed the WAR calculation this year.

10-26-2015, 10:51 PM	#10
RonCo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 9,499	On a related, but different subject, do we know how does OOTP calculate it's WAR values for hitters and pitchers?