Confirmation Bias?

DFyvie · 11-15-2016, 09:47 AM

Is it just me or do defensemen get sprung for a lot of breakaways in this game?

I always thought it was an issue with FHM2.. but you do see the odd stay-at-home d-man still get sprung for a break-away in this version. Is it a bug or is it confirmation bias rearing its ugly head?

DFyvie · 11-15-2016, 10:01 AM

I should add that as I wrote this, my team had 3 break-aways in the first period and a half. All involving a defenseman. 2 were defensive defenseman and 1 offensive defenseman. 2 of the 3 resulted in a goal. It seems the stretch-pass torpedo is a side-effect of playing Puck-control vs the Boucher System. Nice.

Romagoth · 11-15-2016, 07:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DFyvie

I should add that as I wrote this, my team had 3 break-aways in the first period and a half. All involving a defenseman. 2 were defensive defenseman and 1 offensive defenseman. 2 of the 3 resulted in a goal. It seems the stretch-pass torpedo is a side-effect of playing Puck-control vs the Boucher System. Nice.

Are these your defensemen getting free on breakaways, or are other teams getting breakaways against your defensemen?

DFyvie · 11-16-2016, 02:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Romagoth

Are these your defensemen getting free on breakaways, or are other teams getting breakaways against your defensemen?

They're mine, exclusively.

My issue going into this whole thing is I play out all my games. In FHM2 I found that most break-aways for both teams involved defensemen, FHM3 seems to follow a similar path thus far. Is it a problem.. or is it that defensemen getting break-aways in reality is quite rare so when I see it in FHM2/3 I assume it is too common in the game (confirmation bias).

It is early days for FHM3 but I am curious is anyone else notices this..

Aube · 11-16-2016, 01:20 PM

I don't follow the play by play in 3 like I did in 2 so I don't know if it's still the case but I can say that in FHM2 that around 3/4 of the breakaways I saw were defensemen, and would happen every 2-4 games, for my team as much as for the opposing teams. It was really weird to see.

JeffR · 11-17-2016, 02:42 AM

I'll check it, but there's really nothing in the game engine design that would give defencemen more breakaways; the opposite, in fact. And if they were getting the majority of them, I'd expect to see substantially different goal totals for both forwards and defencemen.

Aube · 11-17-2016, 08:58 AM

For my part, I've only seen the play by play for FHM2, so it's been a while, but from what I remember, even just 1 breakaway in 4 games adds up to ~20 goals per season, and they were spread out among my team (so you'd have breakaways from say, a Tanev, or heaven forbid, a Sbisa), which works out to maybe 2-3 goals over a season. That's a lot of breakaway goals, but just seeing it as a number added to season end goal totals, does not look out of place without the context (using poor ol' Sbisa as an example again, 4 or so goals at the end of the year wouldn't strike me as hugely out of place)

Add in a similar number of opposing d-man breakaways and that adds up to quite a few that you see over a season, without a HUGE shift on d-man totals. It just looks so odd since it comes at any time, including a d-man getting sprung off of a defensive zone faceoff a fair few times.

As an aside, assuming I havn't just missed the option, is there a way of having it like FHM2 where you could set it to fast forwards through a game and only show the PBP for a goal, so I could have an idea of how it developed? I like to go through games pretty quickly, and the only way to really do that in 3 is to just hit Sim Period End, so I only get to see the goal and assists and who was on the ice at the time.

11-15-2016, 09:47 AM	#1
DFyvie Major Leagues Join Date: May 2014 Location: Cambridge, UK Posts: 371 Blog Entries: 2	Confirmation Bias? Is it just me or do defensemen get sprung for a lot of breakaways in this game? I always thought it was an issue with FHM2.. but you do see the odd stay-at-home d-man still get sprung for a break-away in this version. Is it a bug or is it confirmation bias rearing its ugly head?

11-17-2016, 08:58 AM	#7
Aube Minors (Single A) Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 65	For my part, I've only seen the play by play for FHM2, so it's been a while, but from what I remember, even just 1 breakaway in 4 games adds up to ~20 goals per season, and they were spread out among my team (so you'd have breakaways from say, a Tanev, or heaven forbid, a Sbisa), which works out to maybe 2-3 goals over a season. That's a lot of breakaway goals, but just seeing it as a number added to season end goal totals, does not look out of place without the context (using poor ol' Sbisa as an example again, 4 or so goals at the end of the year wouldn't strike me as hugely out of place) Add in a similar number of opposing d-man breakaways and that adds up to quite a few that you see over a season, without a HUGE shift on d-man totals. It just looks so odd since it comes at any time, including a d-man getting sprung off of a defensive zone faceoff a fair few times. As an aside, assuming I havn't just missed the option, is there a way of having it like FHM2 where you could set it to fast forwards through a game and only show the PBP for a goal, so I could have an idea of how it developed? I like to go through games pretty quickly, and the only way to really do that in 3 is to just hit Sim Period End, so I only get to see the goal and assists and who was on the ice at the time. Last edited by Aube; 11-17-2016 at 09:04 AM.

11-15-2016, 10:01 AM	#2
DFyvie Major Leagues Join Date: May 2014 Location: Cambridge, UK Posts: 371 Blog Entries: 2	I should add that as I wrote this, my team had 3 break-aways in the first period and a half. All involving a defenseman. 2 were defensive defenseman and 1 offensive defenseman. 2 of the 3 resulted in a goal. It seems the stretch-pass torpedo is a side-effect of playing Puck-control vs the Boucher System. Nice.

11-16-2016, 01:20 PM	#5
Aube Minors (Single A) Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 65	I don't follow the play by play in 3 like I did in 2 so I don't know if it's still the case but I can say that in FHM2 that around 3/4 of the breakaways I saw were defensemen, and would happen every 2-4 games, for my team as much as for the opposing teams. It was really weird to see.

11-17-2016, 02:42 AM	#6
JeffR FHM Producer Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Kelowna, BC Posts: 16,623	I'll check it, but there's really nothing in the game engine design that would give defencemen more breakaways; the opposite, in fact. And if they were getting the majority of them, I'd expect to see substantially different goal totals for both forwards and defencemen.