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OOTP 16 - Historical Simulations Discuss historical simulations and their results in this forum.

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Old 06-04-2015, 11:07 AM   #1
italyprof
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Anomalies using Spritze DB with random debut and neutralized stats

I love the Spritze DB first of all and thank you Spritze on behalf of all of us that appreciate the work that went into it. Being able to use it with Random Debut is fantastic !

I have a team in a league now in the early thirties with Satchel Paige and Three-Finger Brown leading my rotation. What could be cooler than that?

But there are three anomalies that I assume come from using neutralized stats - first that the outlying batting average leaders are just beyond reason: people continue to lead the league with averages around .470 (Highest was Ty Cobb with .486 in the opening season 1921), and hitting streaks, about which there is a thread in the General Discussions Forum regarding how no one comes close to Dimaggio, are likewise crazy: Orlando Cepeda just hit in 51 straight games and another player hit in 46 in the same season.

So that is hitting. The other anomaly involves strikeouts - there are hardly ever any. Sandy Koufax had 46 all season to lead the majors. And that has been typical as well.

So neutralized stats seem to just eliminate strikeouts, and to make hitting streaks, which are by definition statistical outlyers, and the highest batting averages (usually only 3 players a season but three .400 hitters a year - and not .401 or .420 either, but up in the .470s - is a bit odd. The strikeouts are weirder yet.

I assumed that "neutralized stats" was akin to WhatifSports' "normalization" which takes the batter or pitcher's stats first versus the league average for their season, then "normalizes" them against the Major League average for 1885 to 2014. So a deadball era hitter with 14 homers will likely hit more than that all other things being equal, and a steroids era slugger will hit fewer. Etc.

I get that the deadball era saw fewer strikeouts and pulls down the overall historical average, but not by this much and there were some strikeout pitchers like Rube Waddell, and of course later Walter Johnson.

Anyone know why neutralized stats would give these results? I thought the neutralized stats option would work well with the Random Debut format by having all the players' stats measured against the historical average, leveling the playing field so to speak, while also making it harder to tell who would really be great and who not just by looking at their RL stats or even ratings.

Thanks in advance for any wisdom or insight here.
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Old 06-04-2015, 09:58 PM   #2
Spritze
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First I should admit I play the Spritze database a lot.
BUT
Not Random. Random is an OOTP function, the same database of stats is used for random as with a normal historical league.

Other than historical context I see no reason for challenges. You don't mention your base year so context is unknown. Base year matters a lot.

Check the Historical Simulation Accuracy Tab under Stats to get an accurate full accounting of your league (if it works for Random).
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Old 06-04-2015, 10:10 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spritze View Post
Check the Historical Simulation Accuracy Tab under Stats to get an accurate full accounting of your league (if it works for Random).
Yes Sir Spritze. It works for Random Debut.
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Old 06-05-2015, 11:17 AM   #4
italyprof
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Yes, that is one of the great innovations with this edition 16 - you can now use Random Debut with the Spritze DB for the first time, which is really, really cool.

Base year started out in 1921. It is now 1932, unless I am misunderstanding the question - that is, what is the historical statistical year? no? That is 1932. Or is there some other meaning to "base year" and is it hidden in some odd place?

I checked historical accuracy and gave the results in the thread with this same title in the General Discussion section of the forum, or some of them, the two main anomalies were the ones I mentioned - strikeouts down by 64% and averages up by - I forget, 15% I think.
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Old 06-05-2015, 11:18 AM   #5
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I really think the problem is random debut plus neutralized stats, but need to run a similar league with the same DB and seasons etc. but without neutralized stats to see if that is the issue to test it.
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Old 06-05-2015, 11:49 AM   #6
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1924 was the nadir of strikeouts. 2.5 per 9

Using 3 year recalc that will affect nearly the whole decade.

The historical accuracy report shows that something is definitely up. Something is also definitely down. 64% is way too off to be cool.
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Old 06-12-2015, 08:41 PM   #7
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Thank you Spritze. I decided to try again, this time starting in 1932 and using real stats rather than neutralized ones. Everything has been pretty normal. I think it was neutralized stats, maybe a glitch thrown in and thank for pointing out also my choice of the all time nadir of strikeouts as a starting point. A perfect storm. League is running fine and I am having a lot of fun. Your database makes it a whole new game, really: many players we don't know well, but all historical and much sense of certainty about how it will go season to season.
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