Winning 120+ games but losing in first round of playoffs?

[SinkableSoup29]

How does this make a lot of sense?

I have a killer team. Last 3 seasons I have a win rate of over .750 and last seasons I won 124 games. I got straight shutout in the playoffs by a team barely winning 90 games.

Please help me understand this!

[zrog2000]

Roll a 4 sided die and see how many times you get a 4, in 3 out of 5 chances. It happens a lot more often than you might think. It happens in real baseball quite often as well.

[SinkableSoup29]

Originally Posted by zrog2000

Roll a 4 sided die and see how many times you get a 4, in 3 out of 5 chances. It happens a lot more often than you might think. It happens in real baseball quite often as well.

I know theres always a chance but id like to lower the chances of an upset by having a killer team. This last season was completely dominated by my team. (i wish i could show you numbers but I dont / cant go back to previous season end)

[CrazyWR]

playoffs are a crapshoot. The shorter the series, the more likely for an upset. This is not new.

[zrog2000]

Originally Posted by SinkableSoup29

I know theres always a chance but id like to lower the chances of an upset by having a killer team. This last season was completely dominated by my team. (i wish i could show you numbers but I dont / cant go back to previous season end)

There is actually a good chance. No matter how good of a team you have, the worst team of all time still has a chance to beat yours. This is why I hate all of the playoff rounds in MLB, because the best team rarely wins anymore, unlike when only two teams made the playoffs and played in the World Series.

Baseball is far different than any other sport because the best teams don't have a 90%+ chance of winning. If the Patriots played the Browns, they'd win 98% of the time. If the 1927 Yankees played the 2018 Orioles, they'd only win about 75% of the time. If the Golden State Warriors faced a 12 win tanking team in a 7 game series, they'd win 100% of the time.

[HRBaker]

If you played that first round 100 times, you'd probably win 2/3rds of the time or more. This just wasn't your time.

[Thalion]

I'd go a bit farther to say that games may play out differently in the playoffs. Consequently, teams built for the long haul may not be optimized for short series,

One observation. In the playoffs everyone is going to face better pitching with shorter rotations. Runs will probably be harder to come by. Can your team score runs in more than one way and on a consistent basis?

[joehart]

Dis you capture the logs of the games so we can take a look at what happened in the games.

Example, I often see a very strong all lefty batter team that dominates during the season but gets taken down when your opponent sends three good left handed pitchers (Randy Johnson, 96 Kershaw, 86 Keuchel) against them.


Also some opponents match your ballpark settings better than you.
Example, high contact hitters in a contact friendly ballpark.

Also, don’t underestimate the wildcard teams. For some reason they are often very hot and get through the early rounds.

[Ty Cobb]

My 116 win squad got vaporized by the WC. How, you ask? Pedro Martinez, 19-1 in regular season, got beat 1-0. Clemens, 15-5 in regular, got beat 3-2. Got blown out in game 3. SH** happens. It's baseball. If it's any consolation, I feel your pain.

[Kushiel]

Originally Posted by joehart

Example, I often see a very strong all lefty batter team that dominates during the season but gets taken down when your opponent sends three good left handed pitchers (Randy Johnson, 96 Kershaw, 86 Keuchel) against them. .

I just did this to a lefty specialist team in my division all season long and then the Conference Championship series which sent me to the World Series. It was the difference in me being Division winner and them being wild card giving me the home field advantage in the playoffs. This is why I keep 8 starters and rotate the 3 LHs you named as needed.

In the playoffs many of the managers manage as closely

[Kris Jardine]

Welcome to the club...318 wins the last 3 seasons, 9 wins in the playoffs, not even a trip to the WS.

[JasonC23]

I've never won a World Series at any level in Perfect Team. This past week, I won 100 games for the first time in my Perfect League and got to face a team with a losing record (78-84) in the Division Series. I blew them out in game 1 but then lost game 2 because Spud Chandler, one of the best pitchers in the game because he gives up so few home runs, gave up a 2-out, 3-run homer in the 6th inning to Tony Freaking Gwynn that put me in a 6-3 hole I couldn't climb out of (we ended up losing 6-5). I blew them out in game 3 but then lost game 4 because Greg Maddux outdueled Pedro Martinez 2-1. Finally, in game 5, I was up 2-1 in the 9th inning, one out away from winning the series, when Spud Chandler, one of the best pitchers in the game because, in addition to giving up so few homers, he walks so few batters, walked Cap Anson and then gave up a 2-out, 3-run home run--yes, seriously, AGAIN. (This time it was to JD Martinez, which makes more sense, but COME ON.) We lost the game 4-2 and the series 3-2.

It sucked. Hard. I yelled some not-so-friendly words at my laptop. I threw a fit completely unbecoming of a 43-year-old man. That was my best chance of winning a Perfect League Series in OOTP 19 and I lost because Spud Chandler gave up a 2-out, 3-run homer...TWICE.

But, as Joaquin Andujar said, "Youneverknow." And as Ron Washington said, "That's what baseball do."

[mwadsit]

Have you reviewed how you lost the playoff games? My team won 110+ games a couple of seasons in a row losing in the division series and it was always my bullpen blowing it late. A couple of solid arms there and was good to go.

[BoomsdayDevice]

Originally Posted by SinkableSoup29

How does this make a lot of sense?

I have a killer team. Last 3 seasons I have a win rate of over .750 and last seasons I won 124 games. I got straight shutout in the playoffs by a team barely winning 90 games.

Please help me understand this!

"That's the way baseball go." ~ Ron Washington

[zrog2000]

I seem to have this discussion with younger fans a lot IRL. They want championships every season and pout like babies every year their favorite team doesn't win one. That's not the point of baseball. The point is to enjoy 6-7 months out of the year by watching a great sport.

[Stacopanks]

I had the same thing yesterday. My team finished first in the Bronze League I was 125-37 and I played a team in the first round that was all 69 overall players and finished 79-83. I ended up having to go to a fifth game of the series and I lost that fifth game in the 13th inning. Guy didn't even bother changing his starter team and he knocks mine off. Was frustrating but what ya going to do

[2002halos]

Originally Posted by joehart

Also, don’t underestimate the wildcard teams. For some reason they are often very hot and get through the early rounds.

The obvious reason is that statistically, the second most talented team in each league will have the misfortune to be placed in the same division with the first most talented team 1/3 of the time.

And if you do the math, there's only a 22 percent chance that the three most talented teams in a given league will be placed in three separate divisions... That means that whatever the records were from unbalanced scheduling across divisions, there remains a 78% chance that at least one of the Wild Card teams is actually a better team than one of the division winners.

And for those who want to know, the chance that the 3 best teams in a league all had the bad luck to be placed in the same division of death..... 11%. For them to survive the unbalanced schedule and get two WC's out of one division would mean they need to be waaaaay better than the pack, but this happens.

More typically, you see two WC's from the same division not because the second and third best teams were in that division, but because the two WORST teams were in that division, so the other three teams ran up their win totals.

This year is the 50th anniversary of baseball ditching fairness (everyone in a league plays everyone else the same number of times) in favor of revenue. Sadly, most fans could not care less.

[pappyzan]

No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are, you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference. -- Tommy Lasorda

Wonder how Lasorda feels about the 1 game WC and best of 5 divisional rounds. I'm sure he detests it; not as much as the Giants tho.

[2002halos]

Originally Posted by Kushiel

In the playoffs many of the managers manage as closely

Exactly. Many people run their teams on autopilot most, if not all of the week.

I'd add that I hurt my team's record a bit each season by doing defensive training and experimenting with new cards or strategy settings. I know this tinkering is hurting my chances of making the playoffs, so I stop if I'm in a tough race, but in the meantime, I'm gathering data and knowledge to beat you in the playoffs.

So on Sundays in the playoffs I'm going to find your weakness and exploit it. And I have no doubt I'm not alone.

My three teams are a combined 9-3 in WC games. Before the season ends I've scouted my potential opponent and the starter with the best chance of beating that team will be rested and ready.

And those 9 teams that advanced from the WC went 6-3 in Division Series against the "best record" in the league.

[reo]

Originally Posted by 2002halos

My three teams are a combined 9-3 in WC games. Before the season ends I've scouted my potential opponent and the starter with the best chance of beating that team will be rested and ready.

And those 9 teams that advanced from the WC went 6-3 in Division Series against the "best record" in the league.

This is how it's done, I won silver, gold, and diamond in succession, haven't won perfect yet though(I made the postseason my first season though - after that I joined the whales league - still making the postseason but no hardware yet - doubt I will with 20 coming - I'm just outclassed in this league - no complaints though - we're all friendly - Discord league - it's an addicts thing - lol).