Moneyball

[justpatrick]

I´ve read different opinions on Avoiding Ks, but it seems to be rather significant in my limited experience. My diamond team has Bowa (contact 65, eye 20, avoid k 78) at short since iron and he´s hit at every level. Last year he hit over .290 in diamond, and usually hits between .260 and .280. Lava is pretty much the same as well though his eye is better.

[OMGPuppies]

Originally Posted by Goliathus

This sounds stupid to ask cuz I think you would have done it already but...have you tried ordering the batting order around? I have tried some wacky batting orders that goes against the traditional like 4 pairs of "base stealer to high average" and the leftover at 9th. I am banking of any of base stealers hitting a single or goes base by ball and then stealing second for the high average dude to hit him home. Just grinding it 1 point at a time.



You need to be careful of hyperaggression on stealing and baserunning. Sometime, setting the Tim Raines and the like all the way to the right might not be right(pun intended). As they are already confident in their stealing ability, they will steal even with the bar at the left, just more carefully. The bar sets to right mean they will be crazy stealer and sometime they would have ridiculously high CS as a result of that. My vision is to always keep the ratio high instead of the actual SB number(unless you are shooting for achievements, then go ahead). Like I would take 40:5 over 55:15. Also, it's important to monitor the baserunning performance every season cuz they are always different. I think it has something to do with the different catchers and pitchers(hold runner) they face every season.

Speed is important because it is the primary stat. From my observation, someone with 50 speed 80 basestealing is just an overconfident idiot who think he's legit when he's not -- kind of like the dude in your pickup team that said he can hit the three ball and he always disappoint. Like I have seen dudes like that get caught a lot, and their 80 basestealing is asking the sim to let them steal but their 50 speed tells the sim they will fail -- so they tried and failed. All in all, they are a disaster and free out for the opponent. I tend to pull the bars of these fellows to the left so they don't go crazy when not needed. Same goes for baserunning. A good speedster should have close to 1:1:1 on all three speed stats, or you have to adjust the sliders accordingly.

Also, I have seen massive difference between a 70 speed guy and a 90 speed guy when it comes to running performance. Speed is a legit stat.

With stealing I set it as far to the right as I can get away with then slowly move it to the left if the guy is getting caught too much. I have a hard time telling whether my baserunning sliders are effective.

[OMGPuppies]

Originally Posted by justpatrick

I´ve read different opinions on Avoiding Ks, but it seems to be rather significant in my limited experience. My diamond team has Bowa (contact 65, eye 20, avoid k 78) at short since iron and he´s hit at every level. Last year he hit over .290 in diamond, and usually hits between .260 and .280. Lava is pretty much the same as well though his eye is better.

You have a whole lot of guys near useless in this game just because their avoid k's ratings are so bad. It is kind of unfortunate. Hard to build a power based team because of this.

[justpatrick]

Originally Posted by OMGPuppies

You have a whole lot of guys near useless in this game just because their avoid k's ratings are so bad. It is kind of unfortunate. Hard to build a power based team because of this.

Bobby Bonds and Dave Kingman come to mind.

[OMGPuppies]

Originally Posted by neugey

Right-handed batters who actually hit righties well.

So, I made an all-righty hitting team this season. And, um, not so good so far.

[OMGPuppies]

Add Davis and Straberry to the list of guys ruined by avoid k's

[Cheesehead1964]

Originally Posted by justpatrick

I´ve read different opinions on Avoiding Ks, but it seems to be rather significant in my limited experience. My diamond team has Bowa (contact 65, eye 20, avoid k 78) at short since iron and he´s hit at every level. Last year he hit over .290 in diamond, and usually hits between .260 and .280. Lava is pretty much the same as well though his eye is better.

Agreed on Avoid K. Wow about Bowa! I pretty much abandoned him after Silver League. Lava I've continued to use...

[Cheesehead1964]

Originally Posted by OMGPuppies

Add Davis and Straberry to the list of guys ruined by avoid k's

And diamond Harmon Killebrew (although seems like he's hitting this season...)!

[Sharkn20]

Originally Posted by Goliathus

Well what the f*** then, how the hell is my 50 speed 70+ SB dudes so garbage? They steal what I would say is more than a 50 speed should and they fail more than what I see from other players in the same SB range.

Time for me to re-experiment and re-assess stuff, I guess.

Speed dictates how many attempts to SB a player will make, nothing to do with SB success.

Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk

[Charlatan]

So here's a thought exercise for you guys. Presenting an anonymous batter for your consideration - avoiding the OVR rating and the player's name to get a more objective perspective on the card (I'll reveal it later if people want). What do you think of this guy?

Dude McDude  Bats: R       
     max rating at LF:96   CF:69   RF: 87
        con  gap   pow   eye   av K
     vL 65    73    97    81    30	
     vR 56    70    78    67    29

Slash line for the year the card is based on was on the order of .270/.380/.530 ... OPS+ of 151 for that year... so pretty good.

Now I don't own this card and I'm debating whether or not I should buy it for a platoon vs LHP and/or defensive sub. The questions are this:

1. Do you think the guy will ever hit close to his slash line (cuz I don't), and,
2. What do you think this card would go for and/or be worth (I think it's "worth" around 7.5k but I suspect it'll be offered for closer to 9k or higher since it's in a collection).

I feel like this is one of those cards that will never perform as well as you hope, what with the low contact ratings, especially vs RHP. Thoughts?

[Goliathus]

Originally Posted by justpatrick

I´ve read different opinions on Avoiding Ks, but it seems to be rather significant in my limited experience. My diamond team has Bowa (contact 65, eye 20, avoid k 78) at short since iron and he´s hit at every level. Last year he hit over .290 in diamond, and usually hits between .260 and .280. Lava is pretty much the same as well though his eye is better.

I think you have to check on the amount of Ks for Avoiding Ks. My personal observation is that avoid Ks lower the amount of Ks(no shat) and that allows your player more chances to either put the ball into play(whether that is a hit is another story but you can't deny the potential base advancing) or secure a BB. High eye and high avoid Ks is a pair in heaven if you are going for the patience, "I will take a walk" approach but even low eyes, high Avoid Ks is still fine since it at least provides the batter with higher chance of producing something out of that AB. At the very least, you are burning the stamina off the opposing pitchers just by avoiding all the Ks, and that's part of the Moneyball approach.

Originally Posted by OMGPuppies

With stealing I set it as far to the right as I can get away with then slowly move it to the left if the guy is getting caught too much. I have a hard time telling whether my baserunning sliders are effective.

I think the 4 speed stats are the only stats you can use to try to grasp on baserunning. The main stat is surely UBR, but it's so elusive that it's not easy to get if you are setting the baserunning strategy well.

Originally Posted by Sharkn20

Speed dictates how many attempts to SB a player will make, nothing to do with SB success.

Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk

Which is why I am questioning why in the world some of my 50 speed guys trying to steal bag as if he's 70 speed. Some of my 50 are good boys who rarely steal but effective when they did; some of my other 50s love to go gun-blazing and fail, a lot.

[Orcin]

Mickey Mantle (100) has a 32 Avoid Ks and routinely turns in OPS over .800, so not everyone is ruined by a low AK rating.

[justpatrick]

@Charlatan: I would use him against lefties but I sure as hell wouldn´t pay 9k for the honor. The eye is great and kind of balances out the contact, but the avoid k is a problem. I think he would hit pretty well up to gold and then in diamond it would depend on the quality of the pitching year by year.

[justpatrick]

Originally Posted by Cheesehead1964

Agreed on Avoid K. Wow about Bowa! I pretty much abandoned him after Silver League. Lava I've continued to use...

I keep trying to replace him but he never lets me. Of course trying to snag Pesky or Boudreau is like catching lightning in a bottle, so Bowa is still there and shows no signs of going away.

[Charlatan]

Boudreau is like a unicorn for me. Heck, he was going for 14k or so before collections, so now he's closer to 18 or 20k. So ... a lot! But I do see him on a lot of very good teams in Perfect (those are the teams that are beating the snot out of my teams!).

[Argonaut]

Originally Posted by Charlatan

I feel like this is one of those cards that will never perform as well as you hope, what with the low contact ratings, especially vs RHP. Thoughts?

Don't think this card is worth using unless you stumble into it from a pack, or are getting it via Collections.

Can use a better and cheaper option in Roberto Clemente 88 (All-Star) for some right-handed power, defense, and contact to boot.

[OMGPuppies]

Originally Posted by Charlatan

Boudreau is like a unicorn for me. Heck, he was going for 14k or so before collections, so now he's closer to 18 or 20k. So ... a lot! But I do see him on a lot of very good teams in Perfect (those are the teams that are beating the snot out of my teams!).

I had him on a bunch of my teams. Got boring to have the same players on my teams, so I am switching things up.

[OMGPuppies]

Originally Posted by Charlatan

So here's a thought exercise for you guys. Presenting an anonymous batter for your consideration - avoiding the OVR rating and the player's name to get a more objective perspective on the card (I'll reveal it later if people want). What do you think of this guy?

Dude McDude  Bats: R       
     max rating at LF:96   CF:69   RF: 87
        con  gap   pow   eye   av K
     vL 65    73    97    81    30	
     vR 56    70    78    67    29

Slash line for the year the card is based on was on the order of .270/.380/.530 ... OPS+ of 151 for that year... so pretty good.

Now I don't own this card and I'm debating whether or not I should buy it for a platoon vs LHP and/or defensive sub. The questions are this:

1. Do you think the guy will ever hit close to his slash line (cuz I don't), and,
2. What do you think this card would go for and/or be worth (I think it's "worth" around 7.5k but I suspect it'll be offered for closer to 9k or higher since it's in a collection).

I feel like this is one of those cards that will never perform as well as you hope, what with the low contact ratings, especially vs RHP. Thoughts?

That’s some solid defense in LF and RF. I too don’t think he will reach his historic numbers. And, that is too much PP to be spending on a Platoon vs. LHP guy. Not too many people seem to run LHP at the high levels.

[dkgo]

Meet that slashline at what level? Only the very best cards will reach a .910 OPS in perfect while hundreds can at iron.

"Real" season slashlines have very little to do with the normalized environment of perfect team. You can't have all the hitters over .900 OPS and all the pitchers under a 3.00 era

[Dogberry99]

81 eye vs LHP is rather elite. That card would be more "3 true outcomes" than I normally care for, but it could be worth it to you (at whatever price you deem appropriate) to fill a defensive niche.


As far as the original purpose of this thread is concerned, we are conflating 2 very different ideas. The "Meta" ratings are not necessarily the same as "undervalued" ratings. Defense and Movement may be the Meta, but you're definitely paying a premium for them in the Auction House. We need to define more strictly what we mean when we talk in terms of Moneyball, because right now we're talking about a lot of different and separate concepts.