Worst to First - The Sequel

[mirrf]

Originally Posted by NYY #23

Rich Harden has been a great addition so far, going 11-3 with a 2.20 ERA with a 4.2 WAR. Unfortunately he's only signed through 2017, so our window to win with him atop the rotation is short unless we extend him. That's a long time away though.

If your Rich Harden is made of the same material of the real Rich Harden, you don't want a long term deal. He was talented, but couldn't see the field often enough to be useful.

[NYY #23]

Originally Posted by mirrf

If your Rich Harden is made of the same material of the real Rich Harden, you don't want a long term deal. He was talented, but couldn't see the field often enough to be useful.

I really hesitate to say this because I fear that I'm only going to jinx myself, but Harden hasn't had the same issues as he did in real life. He's been remarkably durable....until he breaks his arm pitching his next start.

[NYY #23]

The Twins made one deadline deal sending SP Casey Coleman and 3B prospect to the Brewers in exchange for SP Cornell Heard and relievers Pedro Perea and Mark Gordon. Coleman has struggled this year going 2-6 with a 5.91 ERA, and his salary is the only thing justifying his place in the rotation. In order to get back some value I had to include 3B prospect Paige. He's hitting .333 in AAA this year, but I do have concerns about his defense.

Coming back to the Twins is SP Cornell Heard, who is 2-1 with a 3.11 ERA since being recalled from AAA. He's likely a borderline fifth starter/long reliever. Gordon will join our bullpen, with Perea being close to ready. In order to make room on the 40 man roster Jeff Goff was transferred to the 60 day disabled list, and Estaban Lopez was sent to AAA.

That will open a spot in the rotation for David Herrera, and allow Heard to take over the long reliever role.

On the field the Twins had our worst month of the season going 10-15. That puts us in third place with a 52-53 record, 2 1/2 games behind the Indians and a 1/2 game behind the Royals. The only realistic path to the playoffs for the Twins is to win the Central. It's definitely still a long shot, but we still are within striking distance.

[NYY #23]

It was another rough month for the Twins in August after going 13-16 while suffering injuries to Garrett Lawson and Blake DeWitt.

I'm pretty sure that our slim playoff chances have evaporated. We've made some September call-ups, and I'm hoping for a good September to get us over .500.

[NYY #23]

Year four is now in the books with the Twins, and we've now completed our first winning season. We spent some time in contention for the division, but in the end we came up short, despite going 17-11 in September and October.

But this year wasn't really about winning it all, although I would have gladly taken it. This year was about taking another step forward, and putting those 100 loss teams in the rear view mirror. We got to take a closer look at Jon Bland this year, and he rewarded us with a 4.8 WAR season. Centerfielder Pedro Valles had a 4.0 WAR season. In just over half a season Juan Carlos Torrez produced 1.6 WAR.

Of course all of our young players didn't produce. Scott Frazier hit just .178 with negative 0.8 WAR. Luis Vazquez hit .202 with negative .5 WAR. They are young though, and we'll see if they can play a little bit better next year.

Rich Harden has been truly tremendous for us, going 21-6 with a 2.23 ERA and 9.2 WAR. We saw a lot of youth in the rotation too with Cano, Ewing, Arce, and Herrera all making starts.

I haven't taken spent much time putting together our plan for next year yet. That'll come next, but I expect that we'll contend next year, and I'm willing to make the moves necessary to push us over the edge.

Minnesota Twins - 65-97 (.401) 35 GB
2013 - Minnesota Twins - 54-108 (.333) 45 GB (Season Score - 1)
2014 - Minnesota Twins - 53-109 (.327) 40 GB (Season Score - 1)
2015 - Minnesota Twins - 78-85 (.479) 14 1/2 GB (Season Score - 44)
2016 - Minnesota Twins - 82-80 (.506) 7 GB (Season Score - 49)

[NYY #23]

With Spring Training about to begin, let's take a look at our busy offseason -

Our first move of the offseason was spending big bucks on Japanese import Toshiyuki Aoyama. We signed the 29 year old first baseman to a five year $90 million contract. He's definitely has quite a bit of power, and I hope he'll help our offense. The last year of the contract is a vesting option which should be attainable if he's healthy.

We needed to clear a roster spot so we made a trade with the Giants, moving both 1B Eric Hosmer, LF Eric Thames, and catching prospect Cory Bernard in exchange for LF Roger Bernadina. We saved some money on the deal, but Bernadina should be more valuable than both Hosmer and Thames.

Then finally we made a big trade with the White Sox. We paid a steep price, but I think we got a good player in 3B Brett Lawrie, who hit .273 last season with 33 home runs, 111 RBI, and 5.5 WAR. He'll be in his walk year next year, but I'm ready to go for it. The price we paid was three top prospect - SP Jukka Ojanen, SP Floyd Horton, and 1B Wayne Erwin. To balance salaries out a little better we included C Wilson Ramos and 1B Shirai Matsumura.

With the acquisition of Lawrie I thought that Garrett Larson would be able to play some DH. He hit .314 last season with 8 home runs and produced 3 WAR. That plan is now over, as Larson retired because of injury, a broken hand.

[NYY #23]

As we begin the season we got some bad news in Spring Training. Felix Hernandez will be out for the year after tearing his rotator cuff. We also lost right fielder Jeff Goff, who is out for 2-3 months with a hamstring strain. Nothing like losing a starting pitcher and a member of the lineup in Spring Training.

It didn't seem to impact us on the field, as the Twins had the best record in baseball at 20-8. Unfortunately it's only Spring Training, so right now we're 0-0.

We did see some good signs in spring though, such as Toshiyuki Aoyama hitting 6 home runs, or Alfredo Valadez hitting .303. Let's hope that success carries over to the season.

Our own expects us to play .500 ball this year. I expect us to be in the thick of things in the Central. We'll start the season off on the road against the White Sox with defending Cy Young winner Rich Harden on the mound.

[NYY #23]

April was a difficult month for the Twins. Already without Jeff Goff and Felix Hernandez we saw injuries to Vicente Cano, Luis Garza, and Scott Frazier. We still managed to finish 13-12 for the month though, and are just 1 1/2 games back.

Brett Lawrie has gotten off to a slow start, but he has raised his batting average from .195 to .247 over the last week. I'm hoping he'll stay hot. I really worried about giving $18 million to a player that had never appeared in the majors before, but Toshiyuki Aoyama has also started to heat up. He's raised his batting average from .229 to .271 over the last week, and hit 5 home runs.

Rich Harden has gotten off to a fast start with a 3-2 record and 1.69 ERA. He's in the last year of his contract and 35 years old, but I can't imagine replacing him. I opened up discussions on a contract extension, and I was pleased when he was only looking for a one year $17 million dollar deal. That's just a small raise over his $16.2 million salary, although I did include an innings bonus ($1.1 million for 160 IP), Cy Young Award ($800,000), and All-Star bonus ($180,000). I'm hoping he continues to pitch well and we have to pay him every last bonus.

[NYY #23]

I feel like we're just trying to keep our head above water in 2017. Every other day it seems like we have an injury or suspension, but the Twins have managed to win more games than we've lost and are in first place by a half game.

I'd love to see at least a couple more of our batters start to play a little better. We're 13th in the league in runs scored with 210. I'm hoping the return of Jeff Goff will help, if he can stay on the field.

[NYY #23]

The Twins were selecting 17th in the amateur draft this year after having a winning season last year. We went the best available route this draft, and in the first round we selected 21 year old starting pitcher Carl Goodrich. In the second round we went with another college player, second baseman Carlos Gonzalez. 21 year old 3B Tom Brown was selected in the third round, with reliever Eddie Cannon picked fourth, and starting pitcher Paul McCormick picked in the fifth round.

If all goes well in Minnesota I'll have moved on before any of them reach the majors, but we'll see if that becomes reality.

[NYY #23]

With a 17-10 record for the month the Twins had a good month, and we sit just a game and a half behind Detroit, but lead the Wild Card by a game. Not to state the obvious but this is my fifth year in Minnesota, and it really would be nice to make it to the playoffs this year.

We do have about $14 million that could be used to increase payroll, if there was a deal that makes sense and I thought could help push us over the edge. I certainly wouldn't mind adding another starting pitcher, or big bat. I have prospects I'm willing to move, but the cost of an upgrade is high. The discussions continue, but I likely won't pull the trigger until closer to August to give things an opportunity to settle down.

It's pretty obvious how good Rich Harden has been since we acquired him from Tampa, but another one of the players coming over in that deal, Mark Rogers, has been pretty good as well. He's got a 1.00 ERA with 20 saves in 36 innings so far this year. Shawn Tolleson also is contributing at the big league level (1-2, 3 SV, 2.57 ERA, 21 IP). Of course we also gave up a pretty good player, SS Jimmy Thompson who is hitting .323 with 10 home runs, 58 RBI, and 43 runs scored. His WAR this year is 3.4. Josh Anderson is 4-1 with a 4.38 ERA in 6 starts after joining the Rays rotation. I'd have to say that the trade has worked out well for both teams so far.

[NYY #23]

July was a losing month for the Twins as we went 12-13. It seems like we get close to the Tigers, and then we struggle. The injuries continue to mount though, as we lost Jeff Goff and Victor Arce this month. Replacing Arce in the rotation is 21 year old Adrian Jackson, last year's number one pick. He moved quickly through the organization, and dominated at every level. So far he's held his own in the rotation.

I tried unsuccessfully to make a trade in July, but was unable to find one that I liked. Any deal would require dealing shortstop Alfredo Valadez or Scott Frasier. Valadez would open another hole, while Frasier hit .315 with 2 homers, 14 RBI, and 12 runs scored in July. Maybe he's finally turning the corner.

31 year old closer Mark Rogers has 24 saves, a 2.40 ERA and is a free agent after the season. He's making $4 million this year, but wants a 3 year $30 million contract. As much as I like the way Rogers pitched that's a risk that I'm not willing to take. I spent some time trying to trade Rogers rather than lose him after the season for nothing, but couldn't find a deal that I liked. As we chase the Tigers and try to hold the wild card spot it's probably better to keep him for the rest of the season, even if we lose him for nothing.

Toshiyuki Aoyama won the Batter of the Month award this month after hitting .313 with 7 home runs, 20 RBI, and 22 runs scored. He's adjusted to the majors well with a .280 batting average, 30 home runs, and 77 RBI and was one of the Twins All-Star representatives, joining Rich Harden and Mark Rogers on the team.

[NYY #23]

With a 7-2 start to the month the Twins have pulled into a first place tie with the Tigers, heading in to a big three game series with the Tigers.

We've gotten Jeff Goff back from the disabled list and he's hitting .455 in August with 2 home runs, joining Brett Lawrie (.459), Jon Bland (.417), Toshiyuki Aoyama (.375), and Juan Carlos Torrez (.345) with hot bats. Our starting pitching has been shaky so far, but our offense has been carrying us. Let's hope that continues in Detroit.

[NYY #23]

We entered an important three game series with our main rival in the AL Central, the Detroit Tigers. Only one of us would be in first place at the end of the series, and I'd like it to be us.

Minnesota Twins (64-51) @ Detroit Tigers (63-50)



Rich Harden picked up his 16th win of the season with a complete game shutout to put the Twins in first place. Jeff Goff hit his 8th home run of the season, a three run shot.



Vicente Cano fell to 9-7 after giving up 7 runs in 4 1/3 innings, and our offense managed just 7 hits tonight



David Herrera pitched into the eighth inning with a 4-2 lead before giving up a two run homer to Evan Longoria to tie the game. We were able to rally in the ninth with a Luis Garza double and RBI single from Scott Frazier to give us the 5-4 lead with Mark Rogers picking up his 29th save of the year.

------------

The Twins now hold a one game lead over the Tigers and we'll be heading to Boston next for a three game series with the Red Sox.

[NYY #23]

Minnesota Twins (66-52) @ Boston Red Sox (57-61)



Last year's number one pick was making his fifth start of the year and fell to 2-3 despite allowing 3 runs over 8 innings. Scott Frazier drove in our only run with a double.



We trailed 3-1 heading into the ninth but the Twins were able to tie the game and send it to extras with back to back solo home runs by Brett Lawrie and Toshiyuki Aoyama. With Mark Rogers on the mound in the bottom of the tenth and Scott Frazier made a mental error after Cameron Maybin singled and Shannon Wade doubled, throwing to third to get out Wade as he tried to stretch a double into a triple. Unfortunately it was the bottom of the tenth so the Red Sox walked off winners.



Rich Harden had an uncharacteristic outing when he gave up 5 runs in 8 innings, but improved to 17-5 on the year thanks to our offense. We pounded out 9 runs on 14 hits, led by 4 hits from Alfredo Valadez. Brett Lawrie added three hits, and Toshiyuki Aoyama hit his 34th home run.

------------

Our lead over the Tigers remains at one with the Tigers also losing 2 out of 3. As we anxiously await the return of center fielder Pedro Valles I've attempted to make a waiver trade. I'll hold off on the details until it goes through, or I should say if it goes through.

[NYY #23]

8/21/2017 -

I have to admit that I struggle keeping up with everything when we go month to month. The Twins are now at a point where I like our roster, and are competitive. I'm going to experiment with moving week to week and see how I like that.

Thursday

We opened up a four game series against the Mariners and came out swinging with a 9-1 win. Toshiyuki Aoyama hit his 35th home run of the season and Adam Ewing pitched 4 2/3 innings of no-hit relief for his 6th win of the year.

We had a couple scary moments, with both today's starter Vicente Cano and second baseman Jon Bland leaving the game with injury. Luckily they both turned out to be minor injuries - Cano with a blister, and Bland with a groin strain, and they'll be back on the field soon.

Friday

Before the game I was notified that our waiver trade went through. I mentioned this briefly, but didn't expect all the players involved to clear. Because of that I may have overpaid a little bit, but we sent some prospects to the Orioles - SP Curt Moore, SP Raul Castellanos, SP Cornell Heard, C Arthur Lynch, and RF Luis Vazquez to the Orioles for 36 year old Josh Hamilton and 23 year old center fielder Haden Goodman.

Hamilton is on an expiring contract and is hitting .265 with 9 home runs. Goodman made his major league debut this year and has hit .243 with 9 home runs in 85 games for the Orioles. He's a speedy defender with a little bit of pop. He came at a high price tag, but I think he'll be able to help out in center this year, and Hamilton could help out at DH. Or I did, more on that soon.

To make room on the roster both Roger Bernadina and Luis Garza were demoted to AAA. The Twins beat the Mariners 7-4 with Goodman picking up 2 hits and a walk in his debut, with David Herrera getting the W.

Saturday

After blowing through two starters on Thursday reliever Tong-Myeon Ping was making his second career start and pitched 6 1/3 innings of shutout ball. Our lead evaporated when Jake McGee allowed 3 runs in 1/3 of an inning, and we ended up going into the 10th inning tied at 4. Mark Rogers had an epic meltdown and the Mariners scored 6 to hand us a 10-4 loss. His stats for the year -

April: 1-0, 8 SV, 1.64 ERA
May: 0-0, 5 SV, 0.82
June: 0-1, 7 SV, 0.64
July: 1-1, 4 SV, 8.00
August: 0-2, 6 SV, 6.23

I'm really wishing I made a bigger push to trade him.

Sunday

The good news is the Twins won 10-6 with Vincent Miller picking up his 5th win of the season. The bad news is Haden Goodman left the game with a back injury before his first at-bat, and he'll be on the disabled list for the next six weeks.

That let to Luis Garza being recalled from AAA. Chip Wyatt's rehab assignment was up, so that required another move. I needed to clear a 40 man roster spot, so AAA reliever Manuel Bonilla was waived and designated for assignment to clear a spot on the 40 man roster, Mark Gordan was placed on the disabled list, and Wyatt was placed on the active roster.

Summary

Record: 70-55, .560, - GB (2 game lead over Tigers)
Last Week: 4-3

[NYY #23]

8/28/2017 -

This was going to be an important week for the Twins with four games against the second place Tigers then three games against the last place Indians.

Monday

We started the week with Rich Harden on the mound. He did what he's been doing all year, 7 2/3 innings, 11 strikeouts, and his 18th win of the year. Mark Rogers bounced back from his disastrous outing with a scoreless inning for his 31st save. The Twins got home runs from Jeff Goff and Brett Lawrie.

Tuesday

Vicente Cano saw what Rich Harden did yesterday and did him one better with a complete game three hit shutout with Cano striking out 7 batters. It was an important win for the Twins who left the game assured of no less than a series split.

Wednesday

Our strong starting pitching continued with Adrian Jackson pitching 6 1/3 innings of one run baseball before turning it over to the bullpen as Jake McGee, Francisco Durango, and Mark Rogers maintained our 2-1 win. Jake McGee picked up the win and improved to 8-1 on the year.

Both of our runs came via solo home runs with Toshiyuki Aoyama hitting his 36th home run of the season and Scott Frazier hitting his 8th home run of the season.

Thursday

With a 4-4 tie in the bottom of the ninth with two outs Scott Frazier singled and Luis Garza hit a walk off triple to give the Twins a 5-4 win and complete the four game sweep over the Tigers. Josh Hamilton had a big game with a pair of doubles and 3 RBI. Shawn Tolleson picked up his 6th win of the year in relief.

Friday

Our winning streak continued with a big 11-2 win over the Indians. A long rain delay ended a great start by Vincent Miller after 4 shutout innings, but at that point we already had an 8-0 lead. Alfredo Valadez (7), Vincente Veldez (5), and Brett Lawrie (16) each went deep.

Saturday

All good things must come to an end, and our winning streak was over with a 7-6 loss. Rich Harden hit the showers early tonight after allowing 6 runs in 2 1/3 innings. We staged a late rally with a 3 run ninth, but came up just short.

Sunday

We rebounded from our loss Saturday with a close 3-2 win over the Indians. Vicente Cano improved to 11-7 with 8 innings of 2 run ball. He allowed 3 hits while striking out 9. The 24 year old is finally starting to develop into a solid pitcher.

Summary

Record: 76-56, .576, - GB (5 game lead over Tigers)
Last Week: 6-1

There wasn't much more I could have asked for this week with a four game sweep of the Tigers and taking 2 of 3 against the Indians. We have our largest lead of the year and are surviving despite our injuries.

[NYY #23]

Monday

Off Day

Tuesday

A 5 run second inning would be all the runs we'd score, and all that we'd need in a 5-4 win over the Orioles. 21 year old Adrian Jackson won the third game of his career with 8 innings while allowing 3 runs. Mark Rogers pitched the ninth for his 34th save.

After the game Adam Ewing was placed on the disabled list with Pedro Valles activated from the disabled list.

Wednesday

Toshiyuki Aoyama hit his 37th home run of the season, but it wasn't enough as the Twins fell 4-3 to the Orioles. David Herrera took the loss and fell to 7-8 on the season.

Thursday

Our bats were silent in a 5-2 loss to the Orioles as the O's win 2 out of 3. Vincent Miller picked up the loss after allowing 5 runs in 6 innings.

Friday

With the month turning to September the Twins made some additions to our roster. We called up -

MR - Mark Gordon, who is pitching in AAA on injury rehab assignment. He's 1-1 with a 5.81 ERA this year.
SP - Estaban Lopez - 9-6 with a 3.46 ERA in AAA, 0-3 with a 9.92 ERA in 3 starts earlier this year.
SP - Robbie Bowers - 3.35 ERA in 45 2/3 innings in AAA pitching primarily out of the bullpen.
MR - Ivan Deleon - the 34 year old is likely out in Minnesota after his year as we'll need a 40 man roster spot for someone with more potential
MR - Ollie Taylor - 1-0 with 2 saves and 2.75 ERA in AAA.
C - Raul Chavez - will serve as third catcher
1B - Aldredo Victorero - he's the only other 1B on our 40 man roster, and will likely be gone following the season
CF - Hector Esparza - hit .215 in limited action earlier this year, but is capable of playing all three outfield positions
3B - Jesse Cros / 2B Norberto Guevara - I'll lump them together because they are both stronger with the glove than the bat.

Those extra arms came in handy with a 10-9 win in 10 innings over the Rangers. Rich Harden had another poor start with 5 1/3 innings and 7 earned runs.

After falling behind 9-8 in the tenth, Josh Hamilton came through with a 2 RBI single for the walk off win.

Saturday

Vicente Cano dominated with a complete game 6 hitter while striking out 12 batters in a 6-1 win over the Rangers. Jon Bland picked up 3 hits with a homer, 3 RBI, and 2 runs scored.

Sunday

We completed the sweep over the Rangers with a big 10-1 win. Esteban Lopez won his first game of the year with 5 2/3 shutout innings to pick up the win. Juan Carlos Torrez hit a pair of home runs tonight with Jeff Goff adding a grand slam, and Brett Lawrie hitting his 18th home run of the season.

Summary

Record: 80-58, .580, - GB (9 game lead over Tigers)
Last Week: 4-2

Our lead over the Tigers continues to grow and I'm starting to feel better and better about the Twins.

[ShagVT]

And suddenly Harden isn't sounding quite so much like a shoe-in Cy Young winner, eh?

[NYY #23]

Originally Posted by ShagVT

And suddenly Harden isn't sounding quite so much like a shoe-in Cy Young winner, eh?

Yeah, he is definitely not a shoe-in anymore. I'm hoping it's just a mini slump. In this bizarro world it looks like a race between Ubaldo Jiminez, on a dreadful Mariners team, Wade Miley of the Blue Jays, Harden, maybe Yu Darvish of the Tigers.