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Old 11-16-2018, 02:01 PM   #21
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Originally Posted by NCBeachBum View Post
Trout would be worth it. Bonds in his peak but at today's dollars would be worth it. Ruth, Mays, Musial, Gehrig, Williams.. It's a short list, and Harper isn't on it.
I don't even know if Trout would be worth it. On most teams, a deal of that magnitude would be like 25% of their payroll. Only on the Yankees/BoSox/Dodgers/Cubs would it be viable. I mean yes, technically Trout is worth that much. But I wonder how many teams would be willing to commit so much of their payroll to one player.
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Old 11-16-2018, 06:44 PM   #22
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I don't even know if Trout would be worth it. On most teams, a deal of that magnitude would be like 25% of their payroll. Only on the Yankees/BoSox/Dodgers/Cubs would it be viable. I mean yes, technically Trout is worth that much. But I wonder how many teams would be willing to commit so much of their payroll to one player.
Yeah, that's why I have it as such a short list. On a straight WAR/$ scale, there would be a fair number of guys worth $35+/yr (fair, not huge), but the scale just isn't linear at the top and bottom. Only healthy, young, generational talents need apply. Trout is one such, IMO. Harper is young enough, but too consistently inconsistent, and excepting one season has been very good instead of great.
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Old 11-17-2018, 01:02 AM   #23
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it's not the # but the % of payroll that matters. otherwise you have to consider inflation and such over time... 500m seems like a lot, and it is, but it's not that huge of a step forward when speaking of 10 years of contracts.

e.g. since a-rod's deal, which was probably too much for texas to afford, has average payroll gone up 15-25%? probably. (less than the actual leap, because it's an average and the richer teams always get a larger portion of the increases).

it's probably not far off from historical increases in league payrolls over time.

ugh war... what is it good for... nothin.. absolutely nothing might as well use the overall rating for something serious too. same drawbacks, but fewer, lol. a better correlation i guarnatee than war.
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Old 11-17-2018, 09:47 AM   #24
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one season he was great. that was a few seasons ago, pre- injuries. i just hope SF doesn't do something stupid and try to sign him like they tried on Stanton. They have more pressing needs ... and Harper isn't going to change or save a franchise. he couldn't do it in Washington and i really don't see it happening elsewhere. i like him as a player, just not $300-500 worth.
I donít s e any way that is Farhanís first major move. He is going to build a base, not look for a one-move news event. Aging and unathletic core is their problem, not lack of one power bat.
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Old 11-18-2018, 09:52 AM   #25
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Originally Posted by jeffw3000 View Post
The real question is will someone, even the Yankees, be stupid enough to pay that much.
USA Today, November 8:
"Bryce Harper will sign with the Phillies. You can bank on it."

ESPN headline trom yesterday:
"Phillies owner: Ready to spend money 'and maybe be a little bit stupid about it'"

That may answer your question.
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Old 11-19-2018, 02:30 PM   #26
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If the discussion is in the vacuum of his likely statistical contribution to winning compared to other players, then the answer is a simple ‘no’. However, in the business of baseball the question is what monetary return a team would expect to get for their investment. For whatever reason, Harper grabs the headlines. Players that capture national attention sell more tickets, jerseys, and drive up viewership. Does that equate to a half-billion? I doubt it, but who am I to say?

On a slight tangent. I think that all things being equal, Harper would want to stay in the Eastern or Central time zones. He has an eye towards being recognized nationally which is hard to do when you are playing most of your games after the east coast is asleep.
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Old 11-20-2018, 10:00 AM   #27
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What would each year of the $500 million contract look like? Are we really talking about $50 million per year for ten years or $33 million per year for 15 years. Both seem just so so crazy
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Old 11-20-2018, 11:57 AM   #28
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What would each year of the $500 million contract look like? Are we really talking about $50 million per year for ten years or $33 million per year for 15 years. Both seem just so so crazy
I would expect there to be deferred money on top of an 8-10 year contract. Likely about $30MM per year during the contract with deferrals for a number of years afterwards.
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Old 11-20-2018, 04:55 PM   #29
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lloyd's insurance on it too.

currently, a team like the yankees or dodgers could afford 50m a year for 1 player. those teams can push 300m payroll and still make a significant profit. the only reason they don't is because they've been asked politely not to do so.

dodgers were told in no uncertain terms to button it up a bit a few years ago. there's clearly collusion amongst the owners based on how FA has gone lately too. when unnatural things happen, you know with fairly good certainty that it is intentionally done. the forces of supply and demand are not playing out properly lately, historically speaking.

not an invisible hand, but a perverted one.. a skewed and corrupted hand.
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Old 11-25-2018, 10:32 AM   #30
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The ape makes a good point. There's little doubt Harper's hype would drive the hell out of jersey sales, and likely increase ticket sales, concessions (because of the extra tickets, not because he makes people drink more), and lead to more games being picked up nationally, the last of which would snowball into even more exposure.
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Old 11-25-2018, 02:39 PM   #31
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Originally Posted by NCBeachBum View Post
The ape makes a good point. There's little doubt Harper's hype would drive the hell out of jersey sales, and likely increase ticket sales, concessions (because of the extra tickets, not because he makes people drink more), and lead to more games being picked up nationally, the last of which would snowball into even more exposure.
Id laugh if gell froze over and toronto signed him. Every weekend have the Jays on the natuonal game would ve hilarious
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Old 11-25-2018, 07:58 PM   #32
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Id laugh if gell froze over and toronto signed him. Every weekend have the Jays on the natuonal game would ve hilarious
My guess: he ends up settling for 10 years and somewhere between $350 and $400 million. So that's all it will take to come to international prominence!
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Old 11-25-2018, 08:03 PM   #33
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Id laugh if gell froze over and toronto signed him. Every weekend have the Jays on the natuonal game would ve hilarious
As long as Rogers owns the Jays, not even hell freezing over will get them to spend money.
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Old 11-30-2018, 10:24 AM   #34
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He went to Toronto in my save!
Same. And I was the one controlling Toronto lol

Didn't even put in a super serious offer... it was like $24m AAV over 6 years with a player opt out after 3 seasons. Figured I'd just put it in just to get a gauge on what he was looking for.

Helps when you manage to trade off Tulo and Martin with only retaining 20% of their salaries
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Old 11-30-2018, 04:50 PM   #35
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I've simmed the next few years (2018-2023) for the SF Giants several times. My best runs all involve signing Harper, for sure. They have a gaping hole in RF and money. But he can be had for much less than $500M (in OOTP at least).

Signing Harper (and some additional moves) can make the Giants competitive in 2018-2020 while you work behind the scenes rebuilding the awful farm system and finding your replacements for the aging core. This way, you avoid the "total rebuild" which keeps your fan loyalty (and payroll) sky high. More money to allocate to drafting, player development etc.
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Old 12-05-2018, 08:49 PM   #36
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Imo this is a business / finance / accounting question. Here's how I think the finances work. The definition of worth is monetary value. The player is an asset. The monetary value of an asset is it's net present value (NPV.) The NPV for the period a player is under contract (using WAR as a model) is the amount of WAR he is predicted to earn during the terms of the contract.

The value of one WAR is ~6-7 million. https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/method...llars-per-war/.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...er-nl-mvp-mlb/


In 2018, a fully discounted, 10-year, $500 million contract would require around 67-76 WAR over the terms of the contract to "break even" in the sense that it provides the value equivalent to the cost. Aaron earned 112 WAR in 1956-1969. Mays Earned 124 WAR in 1954-1966. Henderson earned 80 in 1980-1991. Mantle earned 83 in 1952-1961. Pujols earned 87 in 2001-2011. Trout has earned 64 in just 7 years. Each of those players could (will) have covered the requirement over 10 years; some easily.

And that's skipping Ruth, Bonds, Gehrig, Williams, Cobb, Musial, Arod, Hornsby, Speaker, et al. None of that means that Harper is worth $500 million, but imo some players have clearly been worth it. I do not for one think anyone should sign Harper for that because his career path has not matched those others in performance. While Harper's peak was impressive, he doesn't compare to the others in consistency. Trout would be a different matter altogether.

Of course, no one would (or could) have paid many of those players like that prior to the modern era. Ruth could not have been paid even $1 million per year when he played. But in 100 years, every player at CBA minimum (at 2.5% inflation per year) will sign for $10 million per year. If we use modern values for worth, many players have been worth $500 million in 2018 dollars.

Last edited by Drstrangelove; 12-05-2018 at 09:27 PM.
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Old 12-06-2018, 09:43 AM   #37
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No Ball player is worth that. They pay them and then all the seats go to the corporate offices and the average true fan sits home and watches it on TV. This is the World we live in today. Good thing children hate baseball because I feel so badly for young people who have kids who would love to see the Yankees play live but canít afford to take them. To me that is the shame....

Can you see mega companies like Amazon or Google owning a baseball franchise?
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Old 12-26-2019, 04:27 PM   #38
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As long as Rogers owns the Jays, not even hell freezing over will get them to spend money.
Welp.....guess we've both got egg on our faces today.
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