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Old 01-11-2020, 01:54 PM   #61
thklein
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I'm just jumping in to reiterate what a major issue this is. If I see that my scout has a higher potential rating on a prospect than OSA does, I should be excited that my scout has potentially found a diamond in the rough. And that's the way I did feel before I saw this thread. Now I just know that my scout got it wrong. This is a major issue in drafting and in trading for prospects.

Hopefully the issue can be identified quickly and repaired in an update very soon.

Thanks everyone for your efforts in documenting this problem. I just wish I hadn't seen it.
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Old 01-11-2020, 05:38 PM   #62
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thklein View Post
I'm just jumping in to reiterate what a major issue this is. If I see that my scout has a higher potential rating on a prospect than OSA does, I should be excited that my scout has potentially found a diamond in the rough. And that's the way I did feel before I saw this thread. Now I just know that my scout got it wrong. This is a major issue in drafting and in trading for prospects.

Hopefully the issue can be identified quickly and repaired in an update very soon.

Thanks everyone for your efforts in documenting this problem. I just wish I hadn't seen it.
It's funny you say I wish I hadn't seen it, because I feel exactly the same way. It's not something that should affect the game if you never look at OSA to begin with....I'm assuming AI GM's go off of their own scouts (as well as stats depending on how your settings are set-up). This isn't necessarily a huge deal, but needs fixing if the developers find out it is a mistake. I'll just have to not click that OSA button in the meantime.
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Old 01-11-2020, 07:34 PM   #63
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It's funny you say I wish I hadn't seen it, because I feel exactly the same way. It's not something that should affect the game if you never look at OSA to begin with....I'm assuming AI GM's go off of their own scouts (as well as stats depending on how your settings are set-up). This isn't necessarily a huge deal, but needs fixing if the developers find out it is a mistake. I'll just have to not click that OSA button in the meantime.
But the OSA rating are part of the scouting tab. I guess I could just avoid that tab as well. But it sure would be nice not to have to.
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Old 01-11-2020, 08:43 PM   #64
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Wonder if this started with 20.
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Old 01-12-2020, 01:04 AM   #65
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I ran a small experiment: downloaded the USBL quickstart, set Talent Change Randomness to 1, turned off injuries and suspensions, and created a Legendary scout to go head-to-head against OSA. I noted each one's top ten pitching and batting prospects from the 2018 draft pool, then simmed 12 years to see how they panned out.

With TCR at 1, Potential ratings should have been very good predictors. (Scouting was set at "Normal", so the predictions were bound to be imperfect, but they shouldn't have been terribly off for a scout with perfect accuracy.)

The results were mixed. The scout and OSA overlapped strongly in their pitching predictions; eight of their top ten were the same. But the two on which the scout differed from TSA were the two best performers by a wide margin. They had career WAR/rWar of 36.4/35.7 and 35.8/38.4, respectively. The best OSA-picked performer was 25.4/25.9.

Position players were another story. Among the scout's picks, the best career WAR was 17.8, the second best a mere 8.4. Two guys never made the Majors, and one finished with negative WAR (-0.2).

The OSA identified three prospects who did far better: WAR's of 36.8, 31.5 and 30.5. It also had some busts: one who didn't reach the Majors and an 0.2 career WAR.

In this small sample, OSA held its own against what should have been overwhelming competition. If I have time, I'll experiment further to see whether that result was a fluke.
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Old 01-12-2020, 06:28 PM   #66
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Was looking online (more so looking for old OOTP posts) to see if this was an issue in the past....found this post from OOTP's reddit a year or so ago. It looks like the poster was talking about the exact same issue back then...

https://www.reddit.com/r/OOTP/commen...l_rating_stay/

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Old 01-12-2020, 09:04 PM   #67
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Was looking online (more so looking for old OOTP posts) to see if this was an issue in the past....found this post from OOTP's reddit a year or so ago. It looks like the poster was talking about the exact same issue back then...

https://www.reddit.com/r/OOTP/commen..._stay/dxvn6pz/
This needs to get patched.
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Old 01-12-2020, 09:54 PM   #68
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This needs to get patched.
Seeing as how likely it is that this has been a problem for more than one version now, I'd be satisfied as long as they are able to fix it for the next release. A patch would be welcome but it would be pretty late in the cycle so...
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Old 01-14-2020, 01:37 AM   #69
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I'm hoping that this could still be fixed in this cycle. To me, this seems like a game breaking flaw unless you played Stats Only. I know OOTP has always done right by its customers in my experience and that is a main reason why I have bought the product year after year. Keeping my fingers crossed for a quick fix.
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Old 01-14-2020, 03:03 AM   #70
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I too wouldn’t mind a quick fix if possible. I did my own digging around before with OSA vs my team scout before this was brought up because to me it always seemed that OSA was a lot better at giving out accurate ratings then I had ever been made to believe. I was made to believe OSA shouldn’t really be trusted or at the very least trust your scout first. I found myself trusting OSA just as much as my scout since they would often rate players the same or close to it and when there was a big discrepancy I’d turn on 100% scouting accuracy and I found the OSA was right more often than not. I didn’t do a lot of tests so I don’t know if it was right every time, but it’s got to the point where what OSA saying in regards to ratings was very important in my decision making. So if OSA is more or less accurate it’s going to be difficult to continue playing the game without glancing at OSA ratings and knowing pretty much how the player is going to turn out.

Side note. Even if, for example my scout and OSA predict a player to be 5 stars, it’s still possible for that to be wrong because of Talent change randomness?
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Old 01-14-2020, 03:29 AM   #71
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Side note. Even if, for example my scout and OSA predict a player to be 5 stars, it’s still possible for that to be wrong because of Talent change randomness?
I wouldn't call it "wrong" per se. More like it was correct at the time but things changed due to the TCR. Kind of like a top prospect that gets unlucky with injuries early on and never pans out. The potential ratings weren't necessarily wrong, just never realized.
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Old 01-14-2020, 04:40 AM   #72
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I wouldn't call it "wrong" per se. More like it was correct at the time but things changed due to the TCR. Kind of like a top prospect that gets unlucky with injuries early on and never pans out. The potential ratings weren't necessarily wrong, just never realized.
Yeah exactly. Wrong is the incorrect word to use. At the time the prediction was likely right but there are many factors that could change that potential rating in the future including tcr

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Old 01-14-2020, 06:20 PM   #73
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Yeah exactly. Wrong is the incorrect word to use. At the time the prediction was likely right but there are many factors that could change that potential rating in the future including tcr
Right, even with the exact ratings being displayed by OSA (assuming this is a bug), I'm under the assumption those ratings can change depending on things like development budget, coaching influence, whether the player is placed in proper minor league levels based on current talent, and randomness. A 58 POT with perfect accuracy can still be above or below it as time goes on....it only speaks of what a player's potential looks like at this moment.
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Old 01-14-2020, 08:05 PM   #74
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Right, even with the exact ratings being displayed by OSA (assuming this is a bug), I'm under the assumption those ratings can change depending on things like development budget, coaching influence, whether the player is placed in proper minor league levels based on current talent, and randomness. A 58 POT with perfect accuracy can still be above or below it as time goes on....it only speaks of what a player's potential looks like at this moment.
It's still really bad though, because it turns the amateur draft and international signing period into a bit of a farce. There's some huge fog of war going on with your own scout (depending on ability and budget) in both of these aspects of OOTP. It's not fair that you can just sort by OSA potential to bypass that fog of war.

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Old 01-15-2020, 03:13 PM   #75
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I did not imagined that this post would grow to become so huge, and yeah, when i created it i really thought that the OSA was accurate even on the ratings of the players, after reading the posts and checking by myself i stand corrected, OSA is accurate only on the overall and potential of the players. Still, this is IMO a huge issue that should be fixed on this iteration of the game and not on version 21, even if we are at the end of the cycle.
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Old 01-15-2020, 09:23 PM   #76
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I did not imagined that this post would grow to become so huge, and yeah, when i created it i really thought that the OSA was accurate even on the ratings of the players, after reading the posts and checking by myself i stand corrected, OSA is accurate only on the overall and potential of the players. Still, this is IMO a huge issue that should be fixed on this iteration of the game and not on version 21, even if we are at the end of the cycle.
Honestly, when I first saw it, I thought nothing of it....figured the OP was just mistaken, surely OSA wouldn't be bugged like that. Was shocked when I checked it myself....I'm not mad about the bug, I get things happen....and hopefully they get it fixed. But the idea the whole community never noticed it is crazy...went completely over my head. I always assumed those OSA overalls were crap. Shame on me.

It's like you've got the solutions in the back of the word search right in your face, you don't want to look but it's right there in plain sight for anyone who relies on the scouting tab.

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Old 01-17-2020, 01:26 AM   #77
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Honestly, when I first saw it, I thought nothing of it....figured the OP was just mistaken, surely OSA wouldn't be bugged like that. .
Well, pretty much the same with me as to when I first saw the post, but I never thought that OSA ratings were trash, I just thought that they were sort of average validity, and more varied.

So, how it works probably for most of us is that we compare our scout's assessment to OSA, to get a glean as to what the real value is. The better your scout, the more weight you give to the scout's view, but you never know. If they more or less aligned, then you have more confidence, and so forth. OSA is sort of your benchmarking.

As a result, I think this OSA issue is pretty important. This hits directly on the management simulation side of the game. And it does so, because it goes beyond just the ratings and draft etc..; it impacts what the OOTP players do in the budget section per the scouting, and personnel hires (by personnel, I mean who your hire as your head scout).

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Old 01-17-2020, 06:18 PM   #78
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[QUOTE=Calvert98;4578031

So, how it works probably for most of us is that we compare our scout's assessment to OSA, to get a glean as to what the real value is. The better your scout, the more weight you give to the scout's view, but you never know. If they more or less aligned, then you have more confidence, and so forth. OSA is sort of your benchmarking.
[/QUOTE]

Before I saw this thread, during the draft I would use my scout to come up with a short list of 5 or so players, then I would use OSA as sort of a tie breaker. Can't do that anymore.

The problem with just waiting until OOTP 21 to fix this is that not everyone buys every version. I get OOTP wants them to, but it's not really fair to sell someone a game with a major flaw and then require them to purchase a whole new game to get the fix to that flaw. This isn't asking for an improvement. This is asking them to make OSA work as advertised.
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Old 01-18-2020, 11:29 PM   #79
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Been playing around with this, and I don't think this is limited to just the draft pool players.
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Old 01-19-2020, 02:26 AM   #80
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so until further notice I should just trust OSA over my scout?
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