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Old 10-12-2019, 10:22 AM   #21
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Sep 1 — Is the Fat Lady warming up the lungs?

Standings:



Maybe I need to get seriously bloodied an beat back out of Diamond a time or two? Ego check, reminder to self that we probably can’t win in the Mega Whale Leagues anyway?





My worst season yet, but then the competition just keeps getting better. See the steadily declining WinP?


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Old 10-13-2019, 05:05 AM   #22
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Oct 4

14-14 for September and (the first couple days of) October. You picked a nice month for losing streaks, you slugs.


It came literally down to the final day of the regular season. The Penguins ended up at 91-70, but so did the Guardians.


So (exhale) all tied up with one game to play. But we aren’t playing each other. Who are we facing?


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Old 10-13-2019, 03:56 PM   #23
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Oct 11

And just like that, the Fat Lady chokes and dies.


What a weird season.


Outscored 13-6 in the division series, we got blown out in 3 games. I told the losers that this would be the wrong damned time to go ice cold, but… a team batting .184 for a series just ain’t gonna get the job done, Chubbybirds. Not in a Series.

So congrats and good luck to my worthy division opponent — Pere City Guardians (TroutCityBob).

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Old 10-14-2019, 09:06 PM   #24
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April 16 2048 - Special Edition

This game was kind of unique in a (thus far) really, really weird season.


It features a couple of things – The New Orleans Penguins playing the Cumberland Penguins.


Neither team is off to a particularly good season start, as you can see.


Fifteen total pitchers in this game, including the first major-league W decision for my center fielder, Martin Dihigo!


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Old 10-15-2019, 03:46 AM   #25
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Yawn, waking up to a new season




Some scary signs, some hopeful ones. Batting is climbing slowly up to what we’re more used to, pitching is looking…okay. We’ve got bids in on a couple of bullpen arms to shore that up a little bit, last season’s pen was pretty awful.
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Old 10-16-2019, 05:03 AM   #26
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May 29, 2048

Well then.
Pitching seems to be doing much better so far this year. The hitting...well, not so much. For the first time in 6 seasons, I'm more worried about the offense.
We're on a roller coaster, good week followed by a horrid week, so I really don't have a grasp on this season yet. Some bright spots:
Dizzy Dean-1.01 whip leads the league. ERA 2.21, leads the league. FIP of 3.2, also not shabby. Castillo, Palmer, and Sain are all pitching well enough. Bunning...well, maybe he'll come around.
Starters ERA 4 of 15.
Bedrosian is off to a hell of a start in the bullpen. Olson and Crain are pitching well. The rest of the guys are there, haven't really pitched enough innings to matter yet.
Bullpen ERA 3 of 15.
Runs Against 2 of 15.
So that's the good news.

Runs Scored 10 of 15. Oops.
You really need to start swinging the bats, fellas, and quickly.
Still, we're leading the division. 30-22 (.577). With that girly offense, surely that can't last very long?
For one brief, shining moment, we even lead the league. Lasted about half a game, I think.


If this all seems a bit confusing in analysis, you're not alone. Maybe the next month of games will clarify things?


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Old 10-17-2019, 06:55 AM   #27
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Lollygaggers! (Jun 29)

Ah, approaching the All Star Break in an extended slump, these are the simple joys of the general manager.


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Old 10-18-2019, 04:06 AM   #28
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Post All-Star Begins (Jul 30)

Well, I hear that they played an All-Star game. I had a couple of guys there, they pinch-hit and stuff.


Other than that, things are looking up a little bit. Some signs of life returning to the batter’s box, the pitchers are still doing about the same. So we’ve picked up a game or two.


For July, 14-11. Overall, we’re sitting in 2nd in a weak division at 55-50.

Nothing to cheer about, really.


Looking ahead, we’ve got a roughly average schedule strength in August and slightly weaker one in Sept.


If the bats actually got hot for a minute or two, we could make up the games, and at least challenge for the division. We might even slime our way into the series via wild card, though that’s not looking particularly good right now.

Sigh. Games back in a friggin’ wild card race. The shame of it all.


Remember winning streaks, fellas? We used to have those.


The runs scored are creeping back up, relatively. Give me a good August and I’ll buy you all ice cream! If you don’t we’ll be the Cubs, just waiting for next year.


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Old 10-18-2019, 09:14 PM   #29
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8/19/2048

We’d just like to announce the acquisition of another one of the Original Strat-o-matic Penguins, Carlton “Pudge” Fisk. Always nice to have a PenguinClassic aboard with us.


When last we saw Pudge, he was considerably older, a White Sox, and his knees and back were fading fast. We’ve got the 1972 Rookie Sensation Red Sox version aboard–young, eager, enthusiastic.

(Pudge said, “Thanks.” and proceeded to go 1-for-16.)

It’s just been that kind of season. Argh.


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Old 10-19-2019, 05:32 AM   #30
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Aug 30

Well, I guess the boys didn’t want any ice cream.
August was essentially a complete wash (12-14 .462). Our pitching continues to do the job (runs surrendered 3rd in NC, ERA 2nd). Third from the top.
Our hitters continue to not do the job. Team BA is the lowest I’ve ever seen it. Runs Scored 12th in NC… Third from the bottom.

These are reversed results from last season, or the two seasons before that.
I wish we were quick enough to play Small Ball, with that kind of stunning offensive performance.

Anyway, this season is essentially over.
We won’t win, we won’t lose, we won’t make a big wad of PP, we won’t get promoted, we won’t get relegated. We won’t even get any good draft picks..heh.
To me, this is more frustrating that getting blown out completely. At least when you’re blown out, you get a lot of useful data to work with.
I’ve got a team that’s 3rd in batting WAR and 12th in Runs Scored (huh, how does that happen?) We do okay in every batting category except BA…in a ballpark that favors contact, with players picked to favor contact. Mendoza-line team batting.
Home: 39-25
Road: 28-41
I do not know what that means. The guys simply hate Travel? Every other ballpark in this league favors power hitters? (Nope, I checked.)

I’m going with “voodoo curse,” because I just can’t figure out what’s going on here.
It’s not lefty-righty, not day-night, not big park-small park. Most of the ball parks in this league are purely neutral 1.000 parks.
And I’m over-managing here. It’s just one of those years. :shrug:
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Old 10-20-2019, 10:14 AM   #31
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As predicted, our heroic little formal birds finished the season in a nothing little middle of the pack season, two games under .500.

When interviewed, team superstar Martin Dihigo had this to say: "Maybe next year one or two of these other guys will swing a stick at some point during the season."

GM Lemandria was asked to explain the twenty-point team batting average drop, over the previous three season's benchmarks.

"Well, we're still analyzing that. Maybe some of our personnel are a little too secure in their positions."

Special Booby Prize for Robin Yount, who started genuinely whacking the ball around--Player of the Week, but only in the next-to-last week of the season. *raspberry sound*

(Actually, I'm being a little unfair to Robin, we did get 3.5 WAR out of a shortstop, that's always a wonderful thing.)
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Old 10-21-2019, 10:16 AM   #32
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After fitting Freeman and Mussina with their spiffy new tuxedos, the kipper vendor impatiently waits for the new season to begin.

In the General Manager's office, targets are being painted on the team photo of the members who most under-performed in the previous season.

The Igloo trade line phone begins to silently blink.
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Old 10-22-2019, 03:23 AM   #33
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Better than last year.

Will the real New Orleans Penguins please stand up?
Remember last year, that miserable team runs produced (12th)? And I said it was simply a baffling aberration.
This year? So far(!) runs produced we’re 3rd. So apparently, some of the hitters are a little worried about being replaced, after finding the dead kippers in their lockers. Or it could be a temporary hot streak. Or hell, I don’t know, maybe their menstrual cycles have aligned.
I don’t sound very confident for a division-leading team, do I? Ask me again at the end of next month.

Overall for April and beginning of May: 16-10.

Not too shabby. Notable hot starts by Yount, Bonds, Fosse(!). Cool starts by Betts, Brock, Fisk. New 1b Freeman isn’t off to a terrific start, but he’s not mired in eternal slump, either. Arenado and Dihigo are off to average years.
On 4/21, Yount hit for the cycle. We’ve had a couple of double-dinger performances, and a 5 for 6.

Pitching. Well, it’s settling down (from the usual chaos of the first month. Runs allowed is 2nd, so the team’s running with a +25 dif over 26 games, averaging +1. We’re giving up a lot of singles (9th) and not a lot of dingers (1st), about what you expect playing half your games in the Igloo.
Notable hot starts: Pressly, Crain, Bedrosian fine numbers from the bullpen. Starters Greinke and Mussina displaying their best. Palmer and Sain mediocre starts, Dizzy Dean got shellacked twice in first two starts, but numbers slowly normalizing since.

Too early to get excited, but not as depressing as last year.
Wary and suspicious of this roller coaster team.

You know one thing that always disturbs me a little?
We don’t have guys who show up on leader boards. Offense or pitching. No yummy POTM dollars for me :sob:
My guys go out, do the job, and the press largely doesn’t notice them.


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Old 10-23-2019, 03:58 AM   #34
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Jun 4--Still better than last year

Well, that was a month, not sure we’ve seen many better than that.



20-7 in May, including 2 SHO and a 10-game win streak. Dizzy Dean, who was absolutely shelled for his first two starts, has pitched brilliantly ever since, was selected Pitcher of the Month for May. Moose is on cruise control, he finally posted a loss (8-1, 2.53ERA). Greinke is consistent (2.78ERA, complaining about his run support because he’s only 4-3). Sain and Palmer are pitching quality starts like machines (combined 9-5).

No complaints at all about the bullpen (3.25ERA). Olson’s whining about the rarity of Save opportunities, he’s only 13-0. The rest of the boys are playing poker in the bullpen to pass the tedious hours between assignments.

The pitching staff is firing on all cylinders. Clearly they believe themselves the cream of the crop (at least for this month).



The hitters…mmm, Not quite perfection but there have been solid performances.

Barry Bonds, on the leader boards in several categories, started falling off a little just recently. 150 OPS+, 2.9 WAR so far. Arenado putting up what may be his career start in the tuxedo (.306 .358 .497 21 doubles). Dihigo doing his usual quietly stellar job in CF. Betts is getting on base, scoring runs, and doing his bit.

The catchers actually brought their bats this year, Fisk and Fosse have combined to hit .274, 2 passed balls and 4 errors between them, 10/44 base thieves thrown out.

The shortstops, Yount has the ISO of a power hitter but his average has fallen off a little. Ernie Banks has been solid in limited appearances off the bench. Defensively, both are fine.

Freeman, our new 1b, is a little cold right now. But his April was good, he’ll come around.

The second basemen, well…had better years. Sandberg’s a pro, he’ll warm up. At least he’s brought his glove to the ball games: 1 error, impressive ZR and EFF. Murphy’s strictly bench player.



We’re leading the entire league at the moment, up by about 5 1/2 games, leading our division by 6 1/2. RDiff is +79, +1.5 per game. But do not write off the Expos chasing us, he’s got significant experience, including diamond league years. I predict we’ll be slugging it out until the last game.



Basically, we’re on fire and haven’t had our cold streak yet.

Reminder: still many, many games to go. Cautious optimism for the cameras, we remember last year.
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Old 10-24-2019, 04:36 AM   #35
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July 5 (last pre-ASB eval)

All right, that’s three months in a row. It looks like the Penguins came to play this year, so we’re gonna have to keep an eye on the opposition teams and think about a playoff run.

For June, the chillybirds were a blistering 22-6 (.786), melting the ice caps that had formed around them during last season’s Ice Age. We lead the leagues, combined, by 9 games, and our nearest division opponent by 12 games.

The famous Pessimistic Statistical Forecast Model projects us out to 103 wins.


Naturally as a pre-All Star model, that has a huge margin of error at this point. But the sports writers have perked up and begun to take notice, and the Cajun Crew baseball fans are flocking to the Gulf Igloo to watch us play.

The Flipper Pitching Crew is unparalleled so far this year. 1st place in every category. Moose and Dizzy Dean have been duking it out to decide which will wear the “Ace” hat at contract time. (11-2, 9-3) But Dean has more CG and SHO and has started one less game, you could make a good case for either.


The fans are picking Moose to start the All Star game, so far. He has indeed been a consistency machine, as per his credentials. Dean is polling in at fifth.


Greinke is watching both and reminding everyone that he’s got the most seasons in a tuxedo and has been solid every single season. Sain and Palmer are pointing at their records and wondering why the press keeps writing them off as “those other guys.”



The hitters:


Barry Bonds is pulling away from the pack, tied for the league-leading 4.0 WAR. Lou Brock is 4th in RBI, tied for 3rd in Runs, etc. etc.
Unless there’s a sudden voting collapse, both are slated to start the ASG.


Yount shows up on the leaderboards for SLG and ISO, if he picks his average up, we’re probably looking at a slugger award.



We are not quite leading the league in every offensive category (playing in the Igloo we never will lead in dingers.) But the run differential is +186 in 81 games, so we’re outscoring the opponents by about 2.2 runs per game.


Makes the pitchers happy, makes the fans happy, makes the owner and GM happy.

Keep it up, fellas. Kippers for everyone.
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Old 10-25-2019, 03:04 AM   #36
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Aug 5, 2049 - Still better than last year.

Things fell off a little bit in July, as predicted by the schedule this was slated as the roughest stretch of the season, opposition-wise. Still, we didn’t fare too badly, and kept the losing streaks short.


15-10 for July, our worst month of the season, @ .600. We maintain a comfortable lead in the division +12 1/2. And we lead both leagues combined by +6 1/2.


The hounds are baying at our heels, though. Several teams have been picking up games. Gulp.

Offensively, we’re fine, but runs scored we’ve fallen off a hair to 2nd. Reflective of the better oppo pitching in this stretch of schedule, I suppose.


Defensively, we’re still leading every category. Palmer and Sain appear to have taken most of the abuse, at least numerically. The life of a #4 and #5 pitcher.


The bullpen is trying to take up the slack, a couple of individuals getting hammered, the rest cruising. They’ve fallen back to 2nd-best bullpen, numerically. Again, I believe this to be reflective of the rougher-relative schedule during this period, and hopefully not a sign of rocky shoals unfriendly to Penguins.


Run differential is down to +177 over 107 games (+1.65per), and the Yaks are now nearly matching that run for run. They’re in another division, thankfully, but the look like our eventual post season matchup, assuming we both survive that long.

Pessimistic Statistical Forecast Model now predicts 103 wins. Plenty, in any sane season, and the range of forecast error is narrowing.

Moose is projected to win 21 games. Greg Olson 39 Saves. Three in the top ten pitchers for ERA (Dean and Greinke).

But I won’t lie, the short losing steaks we’ve been suffering, with increasing frequency, are nagging at my pessimism. This could all go south fast, if a couple of whales spend some serious coinage.

Keep playing, boys. We’re running with the current roster to the end, win or lose.


The model says that August is another decidedly Penguin-unfriendly month. Order up some extra kippers for the rotation, this could be a bumpy ride.


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Meet our sister FTP teams! Sacramento Big Tomato and Vancouver Brute Force, experiments in decidedly different parks and strategies.
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Old 10-26-2019, 03:31 AM   #37
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Hello Fat Lady? Sept 5, 2049

August was, as the strength of the schedule predicted, the worst month of the year for New Orleans. 15-12, a .556 winp.


Still, our lead is pretty massive. We’re out front of both leagues, up by 6 games over the BP Yaks. We lead our division by 18 games, magic number of 12, with 29 remaining games to play.





While it isn’t locked up yet, it would take a Cubs-level September swoon to take us out of it. And our remaining schedule simply isn’t difficult enough, or against teams that matter in the race.


We’d have to lose 10 games or more (p=0.0003) and Louisville win 18 or more (p=.202) just to boot the division. Roughly 16500:1 odds against a swoon of that magnitude, and we’d still have the wild card spot. We only play Louisville 3 more times, I’ll take that bet.

Pitching Staff: still 1st in every category except strikeouts (11th), Def Eff 2nd, ZR 2nd, the fielders are doing their jobs.


Offensive: 1st in every category except BA (2nd), RS (2nd), and Homers (4th).


Rdiff +231, +1.7 runs/game

Pessimistic Forecast Model now points to 104 wins. Linear projection of 107.


If nothing changes and no randomness takes place, our final eight will likely be:





Roughly odds 3:2 against Louisville (2nd in NCC) even nailing one of the wild card spots.


Been a while since the last time we faced the Yaks (our strongest odds series opponent, let me look them up…we are 6-1 against the Yaks, but haven’t seen them since Pre-AS, and won’t face them again in regular season play. We’ve never faced the Lobos, no record against the Aqua Sox (3 game series still to play in late Sept.)


It may be time to make dinner reservations with the famous singing Fat Lady.


I wonder if she likes kippers.

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Old 10-27-2019, 04:24 AM   #38
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Is that Opera? Oct7

Well, she's warming up her dulcet tones, and is (at the very least) practicing for her role.


For September and early Oct, we were 21-11 (.656). Division locked up fairly early on, Sept. 17.





So in the first round, I'll face either Toronto or Louisville, the wild card winner. For the season, we went 11-8 against Louisville, and 5-1 against Toronto.


This is the part of the season where randomness really comes into play. Their entire seasons could ride on a single wild card game. Then my entire season rides on a single 5-game series. Then (maybe) a 7-game series.


Statistically: "But wins, Pythagorean wins, or cumulative WAR predict a World Series victory only about half the time at best. The vagaries and randomness of a seven-game postseason series flummox any method of prediction."


Translation: It's all too random to make any prediction at all.


We've been here before, win the division, blown out by the wild card team. Happened in 2046, happened in 2047. Then 2048's inexplicable season-long offensive drought.


2049 is not my best season ever (that was 2043 in Iron). But it is my best season in Gold.


Come on, dice gods. The odds are only 7:1 against us!

Enough Rant Against Randomness, back to the good news:



Barry Bonds, 20-20 player. Mussina, lead the league in wins.


.288 .346 .457 as a team (2nd 2nd 1st)


3.66 ERA 3.63 Starters 3.72 Bullpen (1st 1st 2nd)


+262 Rdif


Several individual awards headed our way.

Good job, my tuxedo-ed wonders. It was a memorable season, have yourselves a memorable series!


Extra kippers in your pay envelopes!

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Old 10-28-2019, 04:14 AM   #39
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Nov 1 Playoff Coverage

Division Series: New Orleans Penguins vs Louisville Colonels (manager: Austin1011231) [wildcard winner.]

Game 1 – Freddie Freeman hits a walk-off solo shot in the bottom of 11th (RHP Hersh Freeman), 1-0 Penguins.
Game 2 – Penguins get only 2 hits, Greinke gives up 3 runs and loses. Series tied at 1.
Game 3 – 12 to 5 slugfest. Sandberg gets POTG, 3 for 5, HR, 6RBIs.
Game 4 – Tom Glavine, making his first start of the season, and pitches a 2-run gem. (Apparently I left a man off the roster, and Glavine got the call-up? Whatever, we’ll run with him.)
Penguins win Division Series, three games to one.

The sub-league series features the four teams with the best WinP’s, so no wildcard spoilers this year. I get to face the BP Yaks, the team with the second-best WinP. We whupped him during the regular season, six games to one, but of course that means nothing. Flippers crossed, this could be a blood bath.

Sub-League Series, New Orleans Penguins vs. BP Yaks (manager Atro)


Game 1 – Mike Moosina (93) vs Gerrit “hey what happened in Game 1?” Cole (100)
[He rings up 5 ER in 3.2 innings, that’s what happened.] Moose pitches a gem, and we chase Cole home early. Betts, Yount, Betts again, and Fisk all greeted Cole with XBH.
Game 2 – Zack Greinke (93) vs Justin “you hated pitching in NO, remember?” Verlander (98)
Zack threw a 5-hitter, Justin did not. Fisk plated a run with a single in the bottom of the 6th, and homered off Chapman bottom of the 8th.
Game 3 – Dizzy Dean (89) vs Mike Clevinger (97)
Dean went 6 with 2 ER, and the relievers did the job. Clevinger wasn’t horrible, but not top of his game.
Game 4 – Tom Glavine (86) vs Chris Sale (98)
Glavine snuck his way into the series due to a stupid oops on my part, but he doesn’t have an awful card. I decided to go ahead and let him pitch. Fully right-handed rotation all year, maybe he’ll be a surprise.
Glavine and Jim Palmer combined for a 5-hit shutout. Hard to argue with that, we’re on a hot streak and on to the Gold Series.

Our opponent, Everett Aqua Sox also swept their sub-league, so the Gold Series begins immediately.
I have little data on the Aqua Sox, only played 3 games during the regular season (2-1 Penguins). Nice rotation, but I guess no one told him Verlander hates pitching in the Igloo?

Gold Series, New Orleans Penguins vs. Everett Aqua Sox (manager: Jaejo)

Game 1 – Moose (93) vs Pedro Martinez (97)
Tied 2-2 into the 10th, Bregman hit a solo shot off Jim Palmer. Moose actually pitched a better game than Pedro, leh sigh. 1 games to none, Everett.
Game 2 – Greinke (93) vs Snydergaard (90)
Snydergaard pitched a good game. So did Greinke. And then came Palmer…anyway, now 2 games to none, Everett.
(2-0 leads in series result in championships 80% of the time. Not a good sign for the tuxedo-ed wonderbirds.)
Game 3 – Dean (89) vs Verlander (98)
Bregman hit a run-scoring double at the bottom of the 3rd, followed by 6 innings of basically nothing.
No team has ever come back from a 3 game deficit in a Series, and thus ends our coverage.
Game 4 – Yep, we wuz swept.

I need to spend a little time prepping for our first dose of Abuse from the Diamond Level, regardless of the series outcome, we’ll have to face Diamond Level in the A.M.
Thanks to my fellow managers for a good season and a good series!


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Old 10-28-2019, 07:01 AM   #40
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Ooh hey, spiffy new sig color. Shiny.
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