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Old 11-16-2018, 03:49 PM   #1
Orcin
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Auction House theory

This morning I woke up with a new theory. Never buy from the AH - only sell at the AH and buy packs. The reasoning is as follows:

1. I will never get a perfect card unless I open a pack for it because I could never afford to buy it on the AH.
2. I will never outbid the whales for a diamond card on the AH. My only diamond came from a pack.

Given the above, I will always have a team with gold and silver cards and maybe a diamond or two. However, buying packs gives me a chance (abeit slim) of getting that big upgrade.

I checked my PP balance and I had enough for 4 packs. This was pack #3.

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Now the big question... sell him or play him?
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Old 11-16-2018, 04:22 PM   #2
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2. I will never outbid the whales for a diamond card on the AH. My only diamond came from a pack.
Eventually, many Diamonds (not the rare, historical gems, but the common, lower-end Live ones) will be available at reasonable prices I think. We're already seeing some with BIN prices equivalent to a few packs, and those will keep going down as the whales get saturated and more and more get put on the market. But for now, there's a pretty good argument for packs (after you've stabilized your team to some degree with bronze/silver/some gold cards you're happy with from the AH/early packs).

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Originally Posted by Orcin View Post
I checked my PP balance and I had enough for 4 packs. This was pack #3.

Attachment 588960

Now the big question... sell him or play him?
Honestly, I'd DFA the guy. AH for minimum PP price as the buy it now.

I heard from my cousin's friend's mechanic that he stiffed a waiter on a tip or jaywalked once or something, and you definitely don't want that kind of toxicity in your PT clubhouse.

I'd use the PP from selling him to buy as many copies of that Zac Reininger card as you can find at the AH - I think having several hundred copies of him in your inactive card list is the best way to ensure proper roster depth for a tough playoff push.

And I say that as a totally non-bias source who definitely isn't playing against you seven times today in a tight division race.

Last edited by el_gringo; 11-16-2018 at 04:26 PM.
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Old 11-16-2018, 05:05 PM   #3
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Honestly, I'd DFA the guy. AH for minimum PP price as the buy it now.
LOL ok that's it... thanks for reminding me that I can pitch him against you twice... I am playing him.
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Old 11-16-2018, 05:14 PM   #4
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Nice series sweep Orcin!

Ouch, that one stings a bit, especially since it might end up deciding home field in the playoffs!
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Old 11-16-2018, 05:15 PM   #5
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Though with the free-fall I'm in, the playoffs might be the least of my worries
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Old 11-16-2018, 05:25 PM   #6
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Yup, meaningful reinforcements will be hard to get in the auction house unless we're forking over money. Just as I say that I want to pour all my (559) PP into a Bob Ojeda 1986 Unsung Hero (71) card just because of Game 6...! And no, he would not be a meaningful reinforcement even for my team.

I would put Sale up for the same, since it does not matter anyway right now and you could open a flood of packs for the fun of it all.
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Old 11-16-2018, 05:30 PM   #7
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The theory sound good, but let's see how you feel about it when you buy 10 packs and don't get a single gold card, let alone a diamond or perfect. Just did that yesterday. That's when I think I should have spent 10K on a diamond.
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Old 11-16-2018, 05:35 PM   #8
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The theory sound good, but let's see how you feel about it when you buy 10 packs and don't get a single gold card, let alone a diamond or perfect. Just did that yesterday. That's when I think I should have spent 10K on a diamond.
I would just keep buying packs, because eventually I will do better that way. The theory works best with a large sample size. I have been keeping track of the results of the packs I have opened so far, and they are tracking very close to the published odds.
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Old 11-16-2018, 05:44 PM   #9
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2. I will never outbid the whales for a diamond card on the AH. My only diamond came from a pack.
I am bidding on a diamond card now... my bid was nearly 7K pp (all that I have). I am quite sure that I will be outbid, and then I will open more packs.
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Old 11-16-2018, 05:45 PM   #10
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I've bought several diamonds at 5000PP or below. It depends on the specific card and on when you're shopping though.
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Old 11-16-2018, 05:53 PM   #11
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There seems to be quite a few junk diamonds (relatively speaking). If you watch the AH, you can see that most people have figured that out because there are always about 10 duplicates of them there.
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Old 11-16-2018, 05:55 PM   #12
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There seems to be quite a few junk diamonds. If you watch the AH, you can see that most people have figured that out because there are always about 10 duplicates of them there.
They're not really junk per say, just fairly common and thus a bit harder to sell for a lot.

Freddie Freeman, Alex Bregman, and a few others spring to mind.

I have both and they're very good cards as far as performance goes (though Freeman's slumping for me right now).

Bregman's been one of my better position players this year on a team with something like 13 diamond or above cards, but he 'only' cost like 4500PP on the AH.
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Last edited by Lukas Berger; 11-16-2018 at 06:03 PM.
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Old 11-16-2018, 05:56 PM   #13
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There seems to be quite a few junk diamonds (relatively speaking). If you watch the AH, you can see that most people have figured that out because there are always about 10 duplicates of them there.
Yes, I don't want Kris Bryant either.
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Old 11-16-2018, 05:59 PM   #14
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They're not really junk per say, just fairly common and thus a bit harder to sell for a lot.

Freddie Freeman, Alex Bregman, and a few others spring to mind.

I have both and they're very good cards as far as performance goes (though Freeman's slumping for me right now).

Bregman's been my best position player this year on a team with something like 13 diamond or above cards, but he 'only' cost like 4500PP on the AH.
My Bregman is super disappointing. OPS+ of 100 last season, 111 this season.
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Old 11-16-2018, 05:59 PM   #15
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Yes, I don't want Kris Bryant either.
Yeah, Bryant's probably the closest thing to a junk diamond there is. The versatility is nice, but the performance has been underwhelming so far for me over two seasons.

Too bad, because he's one of my favorites in real life and I was really excited when I bought the card, just after the ability to buy PP was turned on.
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Old 11-16-2018, 06:02 PM   #16
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I'm playing Bregman at SS because I already have Turner, but think I need to swap Bregman for someone better defensively. I'd love a Lindor or a historical card to replace him.
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Old 11-16-2018, 06:06 PM   #17
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Sometimes guys just inexplicably have bad years though, just like in regular OOTP and real life.

In my league, my Jose Ramirez is at 4.3 WAR right now, and another Ramirez in the same league is hitting .239 and is at 1.6 WAR in more playing time.
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Old 11-16-2018, 06:18 PM   #18
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Sometimes guys just inexplicably have bad years though, just like in regular OOTP and real life.

In my league, my Jose Ramirez is at 4.3 WAR right now, and another Ramirez in the same league is hitting .239 and is at 1.6 WAR in more playing time.
Yeah for sure. I mainly want to replace him because it's not ideal to play him at SS with his 43 defensive rating. That he's doing poorly makes it easier to decide that.
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Old 11-16-2018, 08:23 PM   #19
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I am bidding on a diamond card now... my bid was nearly 7K pp (all that I have). I am quite sure that I will be outbid, and then I will open more packs.
Yep, I was outbid. Any really good diamond is out of reach for mortals. Packs for the win! They can't outbid me for Chris Sale.
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Old 11-16-2018, 10:18 PM   #20
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LOL ok that's it... thanks for reminding me that I can pitch him against you twice... I am playing him.
Probably a good call
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