Card dropping ratio (fix your game)

[Gray_fox18]

Out of 1200 packs i opened, on OOTP 19 (500 packs) and 21 (700 packs) i never got any Perfect card, even though they are supposed to be dropped at a ratio of 1:1000 .

Same things happening to Diamond and Silver cards. They are way way under the statistical odd ratio as advertise like dropping on a scale of 4 to 1

All in all i got 52 Silver cards out of 4200 cards (700 packs)
a drop ratio of one every 80 cards.

All in all i got 8 diamond cards out of 4200 cards (700 packs)
a drop ratio of one every 525 cards.

Put a flag count on your card dropping algorithm, and when the count is reached witout a drop. Crosscheck the amount and level of card drop and boom insert in the drop. Otherwise, the advertised odd ratio is just fraudulous advertising.

[dkgo]

People have opened and documented 100x more packs than you are talking about here and the odds are exactly what they say they are. Both for rarity and historical/live split. Manipulating drops based on flags is not random.

Your results are very, very unlucky if true but honestly I don't really believe them since you should have 6000 total cards as your denominator. For 700 it would be 3500, one is always bronze.

[QuantaCondor]

+1 on dkgo's point. The odds have been documented extensively by many people.

[Ty Cobb]

The other day, I drew 2 Perfects in 3 packs. Sometimes, I go scads of packs without a good card. It's called randomization. It happens.

Starting your posting career off with a nasty swipe at the Development Team, who are quite possibly the most responsive and involved team around, is not a positive omen for you. Perhaps you would be better served by observing the numerous posts about drop rates before opening the guns up on the fabric of the game.

dkgo is absolutely correct here.

[Tinkerman]

If the odds are going to even out over about 10,000 packs, which is what I've seen, what harm would it do if they evened out over 2,000? A lot less players would have really bad luck.

[HRBaker]

Originally Posted by Tinkerman

If the odds are going to even out over about 10,000 packs, which is what I've seen, what harm would it do if they evened out over 2,000? A lot less players would have really bad luck.

Because that's not how randomness works. Example...


pick a number from 1 to 100. Play that game 100 times and you'll pick the right number "approximately" 1 time. Some folks might have to play it 300 times before they guess the right number, and some might hit the right number on the 20th try. If 10,000 people played 10,000 times, the "average" would be 1 in 100, but a few would get much more and a few might not get any - even with those large numbers.


To "manipulate" randomness in any way at all destroys fairness in its entirety.

[dkgo]

Originally Posted by Tinkerman

If the odds are going to even out over about 10,000 packs, which is what I've seen, what harm would it do if they evened out over 2,000? A lot less players would have really bad luck.

Because if you eliminate bad luck by curating pulls then you also eliminate good luck. Ive gotten 3 perfects in less than 20 packs before.

Asking for a pity timer or something similar is just asking to give everyone better odds of better cards in packs. I get that people want more free stuff but its a delicate economic system, you cant just make it rain diamonds and perfects.

[Gray_fox18]

Originally Posted by dkgo

Because if you eliminate bad luck by curating pulls then you also eliminate good luck. Ive gotten 3 perfects in less than 20 packs before.

Asking for a pity timer or something similar is just asking to give everyone better odds of better cards in packs. I get that people want more free stuff but its a delicate economic system, you cant just make it rain diamonds and perfects.

When i pay for something, i want to be fair and square what i paid for. When i go to a CASINO i know the winning odd/rate are in the low 15%.
I take a risk. When i pay for a video game and it's content, it must be as advertised.

With programmed apps i don't believe in true randomness, and fairly anydbody who think it is, think again.

The randomness is still in the level of the card you receive, and with the huge amount of cards per level you still got your randomness. Who will you get.

3 perfect cards out of 20 packs, i don't believe it.

The only perfect card i have is BERRA Sepcial ED for completing collection mission.

[Ty Cobb]

Drama...SKIP!

[QuantaCondor]

To be honest the conspiracy threads like these are my favorite ones on the forum. It really livens up the place.

[Ty Cobb]

I'd push the Thanks button for that, but I heard that space aliens from Passaic were infiltrating pancake factories for the purpose of...wait...nevermind. Don't drink Crown and post, right?

[Tinkerman]

Originally Posted by dkgo

Because if you eliminate bad luck by curating pulls then you also eliminate good luck. Ive gotten 3 perfects in less than 20 packs before.

Asking for a pity timer or something similar is just asking to give everyone better odds of better cards in packs. I get that people want more free stuff but its a delicate economic system, you cant just make it rain diamonds and perfects.

After 10,000 packs, my packs team had EXACTLY the right ratio of perfects/historicals. So now I don't really believe in "random" long-term drop rate luck (the luck is pulling good/expensive cards). In the short-term, it's irrelevant whether I pull 4 perfects in 100 packs or 3 in 2000 (as I have) because it WILL even out. If it only took 2000 to even out, most players probably wouldn't even notice. There'd still be nothing stopping you from getting 3 perfects in 20 packs, AND it definitely wouldn't "make it rain diamonds and perfects", as it wouldn't actually change the overall drop rate at all.

For teams that will never get close to 10,000 packs, bad short-term drop rate luck becomes much more relevant, and can actually ruin the fun of their game. There have been plenty of emotional reactions like the OP in this thread. Is that what we want? I wonder how many rage quits there have been, which can only be bad for the game.

[HRBaker]

(directed to OP)

Ugh, ugh, ugh... OK, let's do a hypothetical, shall we?

Here's the odds as they stand... Perfect 1:1000, Diamond 1:150, Gold 1:50, Silver 1:20, Bronze 1:5.
Ignoring the "free" Bronze card in each pack, this will give you the following breakdown (rounded) for every 1000 cards you open...

1 Perfect card
7 Diamond cards
20 Gold cards
50 Silver cards
200 Bronze cards
723 Iron cards

OK. Rather than random, let's program the game to distribute your 1000 cards as follows...

1st pack; 1 Perfect and 4 Diamonds
2nd pack; 3 Diamonds and 2 Golds
3rd pack; 5 Golds
4th pack; 5 Golds
5th pack; 5 Golds
6th pack; 3 Golds and 2 Silvers
7th through 15th packs; 5 Silvers
16th pack; 3 Silvers and 2 Bronze
17th through 56th pack; 5 Bronze
57th pack; 3 Bronze and 2 Iron
58th through 100th pack; 5 Irons

There, you get your best cards at the beginning. What will 99% of people do? Buy 6 packs ($6) and quit forever. Maybe some will buy as many as 57 packs ($57). And what do you have on your roster?

1 Perfect card,7 Diamond cards, and18 Gold cards. And so does everyone else your playing with. Not so good.

Ok, Let's do it in reverse? No. That would require spending $95 before you even got your first Gold card!!!

Randomness makes each of the two above examples the two extremes of what can happen in real life. Exceptional luck will net you the best possible cards for $6 and horrendous luck will give you nothing better than Silver for $95.

The only other option is to reduce the odds (to 1:2000 as suggested) and that would fill the entire 8 levels of the Pyramid with Perfects and Diamonds by the end of the year.

Randomness is the ONLY way to handle this, and understanding randomness is critical to accepting it.

[dkgo]

Originally Posted by Tinkerman

After 10,000 packs, my packs team had EXACTLY the right ratio of perfects/historicals. So now I don't really believe in "random" long-term drop rate luck (the luck is pulling good/expensive cards). In the short-term, it's irrelevant whether I pull 4 perfects in 100 packs or 3 in 2000 (as I have) because it WILL even out. If it only took 2000 to even out, most players probably wouldn't even notice. There'd still be nothing stopping you from getting 3 perfects in 20 packs, AND it definitely wouldn't "make it rain diamonds and perfects", as it wouldn't actually change the overall drop rate at all.

For teams that will never get close to 10,000 packs, bad short-term drop rate luck becomes much more relevant, and can actually ruin the fun of their game. There have been plenty of emotional reactions like the OP in this thread. Is that what we want? I wonder how many rage quits there have been, which can only be bad for the game.

Hold up

You are now saying you think packs are rigged because over a large number you pulled cards at the odds it says you will pull them? Did I read that correctly?

[eldur00]

Originally Posted by Gray_fox18

When i pay for something, i want to be fair and square what i paid for. When i go to a CASINO i know the winning odd/rate are in the low 15%.
I take a risk. When i pay for a video game and it's content, it must be as advertised.

With programmed apps i don't believe in true randomness, and fairly anydbody who think it is, think again.

The randomness is still in the level of the card you receive, and with the huge amount of cards per level you still got your randomness. Who will you get.

3 perfect cards out of 20 packs, i don't believe it.

The only perfect card i have is BERRA Sepcial ED for completing collection mission.

Here's a funny thought - if you don't like the odds, quit playing. It's truly that simple. There is no need to blow up your blood pressure by frothing at the mouth on the daily about it.

[Tinkerman]

Originally Posted by dkgo

Hold up

You are now saying you think packs are rigged because over a large number you pulled cards at the odds it says you will pull them? Did I read that correctly?

Rigged is really not the right word - when the game is fairly giving you what is advertised .

Originally Posted by dkgo

People have opened and documented 100x more packs than you are talking about here and the odds are exactly what they say they are.

How exactly do you think this is arrived at for many individual players? True chance would produce a lot more variation, wouldn't it?

[dpl1]

Originally Posted by Tinkerman

How exactly do you think this is arrived at for many individual players? True chance would produce a lot more variation, wouldn't it?

No.

[dkgo]

The larger the sample size then the closer you will get to the true odds. Opening 1000 packs and getting 10 perfects instead of 5 is unlikely but not incredible. Opening 10000 packs and getting 100 instead of 50 is essentially impossible.

[bailey]

According to the figures released by Kris, the odds of pulling a Perfect are NOT 1 in 200 packs as stated, but better than that. 120K Perfect cards have been pulled from 14 million packs opened when only 70K is expected.

[dboeyr12007]

Originally Posted by bailey

According to the figures released by Kris, the odds of pulling a Perfect are NOT 1 in 200 packs as stated, but better than that. 120K Perfect cards have been pulled from 14 million packs opened when only 70K is expected.

And are actually a bit better than that because he said those 14 million reflects starter packs as well.