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OOTP 18 - Historical Simulations Discuss historical simulations and their results in this forum.

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Old 12-31-2016, 11:53 AM   #1
orangebird
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The .500 Tournament

Looking over this forum recently, I've seen lots of best of and worst of tournaments, both of which are pretty neat ideas.

However, one thing that I want to do is doing a tournament to see who is the best of the average. I am going to a 32 team tournament of teams that went .500 in the regular season (post-dead ball), seeded by their pythagorean record.

The first two rounds will be best-of-3, the rounds of 8 and 4 will be best-of-5 and then the final matchup will be best-of-7.

My next post will have the matchups and seeds!
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Old 12-31-2016, 12:01 PM   #2
orangebird
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Team Seeding

  1. Senators 1953
  2. Red Sox 1985
  3. Red Sox 1944
  4. Tigers 1958
  5. White Sox 2002
  6. Diamondbacks 2012
  7. Cardinals 1973
  8. Twins 1973
  9. Expos 1988
  10. Indians 2008
  11. A's 2010
  12. Red Sox 1934
  13. Astros 1977
  14. Brewers 2005
  15. Phillies 1984
  16. Brewers 1989
  17. Astros 1974
  18. Orioles 2015
  19. Padres 1982
  20. A's 1987
  21. Dodgers 1993
  22. Orioles 1957
  23. Phillies 1955
  24. Astros 1969
  25. Tigers 2010
  26. Phillies 2012
  27. Angels 1991
  28. Reds 1996
  29. Twins 1972
  30. Expos 1989
  31. Padres 1983
  32. White Sox 1922

I'm going to provide a short preview of all the first round games, starting with the top-seeded 1953 Senators facing the underdog 1922 White Sox

Last edited by orangebird; 12-31-2016 at 12:04 PM.
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Old 12-31-2016, 12:36 PM   #3
orangebird
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(1) 1953 Senators v. (32) 1922 White Sox Preview

(1) The 1953 Senators
Pythagorean Record: 84-68 (.549)
Top Hitter: 1B Mickey Vernon (43 2Bs, 11 3Bs, 15 HRs, .337/.403/.518
Top Pitcher: Connie Marrero (3.03 ERA, 4.04 FIP, 1.222 WHIP)
How they finished .500: Out of everyone in this tournament, the Senators are the unluckiest team of the bunch, given their pythagorean record shows they underperformed by eight wins.

The Senators were unlucky when it came to one run games, where they were 19-24. They also didn't find much luck when it came to extra innings, where they were 2-7.

Washington was dead last in the AL when it came to homers, with only three batters reaching double digits for roundtrippers. When it came to pitching, their staff was pretty average. They had the 5th best ERA and FIP in the league.


(32) The 1922 White Sox
Pythagorean Record: 77-77 (.500)
Top Hitter: OF Johnny Mostil (28 2Bs, 14 3Bs, 7 HRs, .303/.375/.472)
Top Pitcher: Red Faber (2.81 ERA, 3.30 FIP, 1.185 WHIP)
How they finished .500: If it was not for Red Faber, there's very little chance Chicago finishes 1922 with a .500 record. Faber was dominating, lead the AL in ERA, FIP and WHIP to carry Chicago to their .500 finish. He pitched 352 innings and recorded 31 complete games for the White Sox.

Besides Faber, the 1922 White Sox were a largely unassuming team. No one had an OPS+ higher than 120 and no one else on the pitching staff had an ERA lower than 3.00.

Last edited by orangebird; 12-31-2016 at 01:25 PM.
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Old 12-31-2016, 01:23 PM   #4
orangebird
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(2) 1985 Red Sox v. (31) 1983 Padres Preview

(2) The 1985 Red Sox
Pythagorean Record: 89-73 (.549)
Top Hitter: 3B Wade Boggs (42 2Bs, 3 3Bs, 8 HRs, .368/.450/.478)
Top Pitcher: Roger Clemens (3.29 ERA, 3.06 FIP, 1.220 WHIP)
How they finished .500: A year away from making the World Series, the 1985 Red Sox already had the foundation for the following season laid with their lineup.

Wade Boggs led the league in hits, batting average and on-base percentage and as a team they led the AL with a .282 average. The Red Sox also had some pop from the corner outfield slots, as Dwight Evans and Jim Rice both had more than 25 homers.

However, the pitching staff had issues with an unreliable bullpen. The Red Sox had 49 save opportunities yet blew 20 saves. Their 41% blown save rate was good for second-worst in the league, with only the Indians' 45% being worst.


(31) The 1983 Padres
Pythagorean Record: 81-81 (.500)
Top Hitter: 1B Steve Garvey (22 2Bs, 0 3Bs, 14 HRs, .294/.344/.459)
Top Pitcher: Mark Thurmond (2.65 ERA, 3.60 FIP, 1.188 WHIP)
How they finished .500: Much their opponent, this Padres team was a year away from winning the pennant.

Unlike the Red Sox, however, this team did not possess a strong lineup.

Tony Gwynn was only in his second full season and was not yet the great hitter he is known for today. In the 12-team NL, the Padres were 11th in homers, on-base percentage and slugging percentage.

The Padres made their way to .500 thanks to an above-average pitching staff that was 6th in the NL for ERA and 5th for WHIP.

Last edited by orangebird; 12-31-2016 at 01:25 PM.
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Old 12-31-2016, 03:56 PM   #5
orangebird
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(3) 1944 Red Sox v. (30) 1989 Expos Preview

(3) The 1944 Red Sox
Pythagorean Record: 83-71 (.539)
Top Hitter: OF Bob Johnson (40 2Bs, 8 3Bs, 17 HRs, .324/.431/.528)
Top Pitcher: Tex Hughson (2.26 ERA, 2.33 FIP, 1.048 WHIP)
How they finished .500: Due to World War II, the 1944 Red Sox found themselves without Ted Williams, which was understandably a hinderance to the team.

However, Boston found someone who could admirably fill in for Williams that season: Bob Johnson. The 38-year-old Johnson led the league in on-base percentage and was the starting left fielder in the All-Star Game.

Boston as a whole was strong when it came to hitting, as they led the league in batting average and on-base percentage.

They only went .500 thanks to their shoddy pitching, which was dead last in ERA. The rotation wasted the impressive efforts of Tex Hughson, who led the league in FIP, WHIP and strikeouts to walks ratio.


(30) The 1989 Expos
Pythagorean Record: 81-81 (.500)
Top Hitter: OF Tim Raines (29 2Bs, 6 3Bs, 9 HRs, .286/.395/.418)
Top Pitcher: Bryn Smith (2.84 ERA, 3.34 FIP, 1.071 WHIP)
How they finished .500: This season for the Expos is defined by their blockbuster trade: sending Randy Johnson and two other players to the Mariners for Mark Langston in May.

Regardless of how the trade looks in hindsight, the Expos finished .500 that year. On offense, Montreal excelled at two things: walks and steals. They led the NL in both, with Tim Raines providing 41 steals and 93 walks for them.

Outside of walks and steals, their offense was very average when it came to hitting for power and avoiding strikeouts.

The pitching for Montreal does not have a lot that jumps out at you. They were 7th in ERA and home runs allowed in the NL that year.

Last edited by orangebird; 12-31-2016 at 04:32 PM.
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Old 12-31-2016, 07:44 PM   #6
orangebird
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(4) 1958 Tigers v. (29) 1972 Twins Preview

(4) The 1958 Tigers
Pythagorean Record: 83-71 (.539)
Top Hitter: OF Al Kaline (34 2Bs, 7 3Bs, 16 HRs, .313/.374/.490)
Top Pitcher: Frank Lary (2.90 ERA, 3.39 FIP, 1.218 WHIP)
How they finished .500: The Tigers offense was powered by Al Kaline, who led the team in on-base percentage and slugging.

Harvey Kuenn, Gail Harris and Charlie Maxwell all complimented the Hall of Famer as each of them had an OPS+ above 110.

The Tigers' offense could have used some work with hitting homers and earning walks, though. They were 6th in the AL for homers and 7th for walks.

When it comes to pitching, Detroit's rotation was powered by Frank Lary. There was no one in the entire American League who threw more innings than Lary. Jim Bunning was one of the best in the league when it came to K/9, but his 3.52 ERA was only above average.

(29) The 1972 Twins
Pythagorean Record: 77-77 (.500)
Top Hitter: 1B Harmon Killebrew (13 2Bs, 2 3Bs, 26 HRs, .231/.367/.450)
Top Pitcher: Jim Kaat (2.06 ERA, 2.49 FIP, 1.006 WHIP)
How they finished .500: The 1972 Twins had three Hall of Famers, yet could only manage to win half of their games.

It was not for a lack of effort from them: Rod Carew batted .318, Harmon Killebrew led the team in slugging and homers and Bert Blyleven had a 2.73 ERA.

Outside of the Hall of Famers, the Twins' lineup had some ugly spots. Eric Soderholm had 313 PAs of failing to bat .200 and there was barely any power from their lineup outside of Killebrew.

The lineup let down a strong rotation, featuring five different people who started at least 15 games with an ERA under 3.00.
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Old 01-01-2017, 09:51 AM   #7
orangebird
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(5) 2002 White Sox v. (28) 1996 Reds Preview

(5) The 2002 White Sox
Pythagorean Record: 86-76 (.531)
Top Hitter: OF Magglio Ordonez (47 2Bs, 1 3Bs, 38 HRs, .320/.381/.597)
Top Pitcher: Mark Buehrle (3.58 ERA, 4.00 FIP, 1.243 WHIP)
How they finished .500: The 2002 White Sox provided plenty of power, with five batters hitting 25 or more homers for them that year.

The star in the lineup was Magglio Ordonez, who led Chicago in doubles, homers, batting average, and slugging. According to OPS+, Ordonez was the fifth-best hitter in the AL that season.

Mark Buehrle was the workhorse in Chicago's rotation, leading all the team's starters in every notable pitching category.

The rest of the rotation was pretty unsavory, though. Dan Wright pitched almost 200 innings with an ERA above 5.00 and Jon Garland's 4.58 ERA was also pretty dreadful.


(28) The 1996 Reds
Pythagorean Record: 81-81 (.500)
Top Hitter: SS Barry Larkin (32 2Bs, 4 3Bs, 33 HRs, .298/.410/.567)
Top Pitcher: John Smiley (3.64 ERA, 3.60 FIP, 1.201 WHIP)
How they finished .500: A year removed from winning MVP, Barry Larkin's stats actually managed to improve in certain areas.

In 1996, Larkin reached his career high in homers with 33 and also had his most successful season for slugging percentage. Eric Davis assisted Larkin when it came to adding pop to the lineup, notching 26 homers and slugging over .500.

Larkin's power surge was not enough to overcome an underwhelming pitching staff. Cincinnati's pitchers were plagued by walks and had one of the worst BB/9 ratios in the league.
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Old 01-01-2017, 07:22 PM   #8
orangebird
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(6) 2012 Diamondbacks v. (27) 1991 Angels Preview

(6) The 2012 Diamondbacks
Pythagorean Record: 86-76 (.531)
Top Hitter: 2B Aaron Hill (44 2Bs, 6 3Bs, 26 HRs, .302/.360/.522)
Top Pitcher: Wade Miley (3.33 ERA, 3.15 FIP, 1.182 WHIP)
How they finished .500: On offense, the 2012 Diamondbacks were excellent at drawing walks. They were second in the National League in walks, led by Miguel Montero walking in almost 13 percent of his plate appearances, good for fourth in the league.

In addition to a good eye, Arizona's offense was powered by Aaron Hill, whose .882 on base percentage plus slugging percentage was a career best for him.

The Diamondbacks' pitching in 2012 was mediocre, at best. They were 9th in the NL for ERA, 8th for FIP and 11th for strikeouts. They managed to do enough to not squander the offense's strong plate discipline and Aaron Hill's career year.

(27) The 1991 Angels
Pythagorean Record: 81-81 (.500)
Top Hitter: 1B Wally Joyner (34 2Bs, 3 3Bs, 21 HRs, .301/.360/.488)
Top Pitcher: Jim Abbott (2.89 ERA, 3.27 FIP, 1.214 WHIP)
How they finished .500: The case of the 1991 Angels is pretty simple: really bad offense and really good pitching.

Out of 14 AL teams, the Angels were 13th in homers, on-base percentage and slugging and were dead last in walks. The Angels could not work the count and they did not have any power to compensate for their inability to earn walks.

The Angels' saving grace for their pedestrian offense was a top-notch pitching staff. Their bullpen made sure that they held onto leads their meandering offense gave them: closer Bryan Harvey only blew six saves in 52 chances.

Both the starting pitchers and relievers also did an excellent job at inducing grounders: the Angels lead the league in ground ball to fly ball ratio in 1991.

Last edited by orangebird; 01-01-2017 at 07:24 PM.
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Old 01-02-2017, 09:58 AM   #9
orangebird
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(7) 1973 Cardinals v. (26) 2012 Phillies Preview

(7) The 1973 Cardinals
Pythagorean Record: 86-76 (.531)
Top Hitter: RF Bernie Carbo (18 2Bs, 0 3Bs, 8 HRs, .286/.397/.422)
Top Pitcher: Bob Gibson (2.77 ERA, 2.83 FIP, 1.108 WHIP)
How they finished .500: The 1973 Cardinals were an odd team when it came to extra base hits. They were dead last in the NL in home runs, but second when it came to hitting doubles and were third in triples.

Lou Brock continued his excellent career of swiping bases, leading the league with 70 steals that season.

While the Cardinals could knock around some doubles and had one of the base-stealers ever, the team's main strength was pitching.

They were second in ERA and FIP and third in WHIP. Bob Gibson had another strong season in his Hall of Fame career, finishing 6th in the NL for ERA.


(26) The 2012 Phillies
Pythagorean Record: 81-81 (.500)
Top Hitter: C Carlos Ruiz (32 2Bs, 0 3Bs, 16 HRs, .325/.394/.540)
Top Pitcher: Cole Hamels (3.05 ERA, 3.30 FIP, 1.124 WHIP)
How they finished .500: The 2012 Phillies was the beginning of the end for one of the more impressive runs in the past 15 years of baseball.

From 2007-2011, the Phillies won the NL East five straight seasons. In 2008 they won the World Series and in the 2009 they made the World Series again before falling to the Yankees. In 2011 they won 102 games, before being upset in the NLDS to eventually World Series champion Cardinals.

The 2012 Phillies found themselves dealing with injuries to a pair of their core players: Ryan Howard and Chase Utley.

The Phillies' powerful first baseman had his worst full season in the major leagues, having career lows in basically every offensive stat.

The Phillies' rotation also declined from 2011. Father Time caught up to Roy Halladay, who had a shocking 4.49 ERA in 25 starts. Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels managed to cover up for Halladay's sharp decline, with ERAs of 3.16 and 3.05 respectively.

Last edited by orangebird; 01-02-2017 at 10:07 AM.
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Old 03-27-2017, 12:59 PM   #10
italyprof
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Fun idea. I might do a custom league, go into historical team mode load these teams in do a fantasy draft. Would make an in wresting player pool. Keep us posted about how the tournament is progressing!
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