Historical Random Debut

[Markus Heinsohn]

Originally Posted by Lukas Berger

I think he is using career mode though...

From what I understand, the issues David is getting don't tend to be with low ab guys from rl having great seasons either, it's more with already pretty great guys who got lots of abs having even better seasons like Hornsby, Ron Santo, George Scott types.

That happens in replay mode when the league competition is weak and the great players happened to get ratings for one of their best years. When you use career mode this simply does not happen, at least not in my tests.

[David Watts]

[QUOTE=Lukas Berger;4293417]I think he is using career mode though

From what I understand, the issues David is getting don't tend to be with low ab guys from rl having great seasons either, it's more with already pretty great guys who got lots of abs having even better seasons like Hornsby, Ron Santo, George Scott types.[/QUOTE

In those bug threads, I posted examples of 1 year recalc and 3 year. Both were creating super hero seasons. Both were creating the monster season clumps as well. I would be glad to use 3 year or even 5 year if it solved the problem, but it didn't with 18. Ron Santo was never a .370, 55 bomb guy even once in real life...so, it makes it goofy when he ends up being one for 3 or 4 straight seasons.

It's not low at bat guys I'm complaining about. It's the meat of baseball's best. It's like the game see's a guy that had a wonderful .333 season and say's damn, we need this guy to hit .389 with 265 hits. Folks will love that way more than .333 with 201 hits. The stats are no longer holy in this game. It's the flash and glitter., Maybe we need a mode in which player stats disappear entirely and we can all marvel at how close the league numbers are.

[Jeff1787]

Originally Posted by Markus Heinsohn

First step in the league creation wizard, below the option where you enable random debut.

Sorry, I'm dense...

Do you mean the drop down box for "Optimize Player Ratings for"...career play vs. single-season replay?

[Markus Heinsohn]

Originally Posted by Jeff1787

Sorry, I'm dense...

Do you mean the drop down box for "Optimize Player Ratings for"...career play vs. single-season replay?

Yes.

[Markus Heinsohn]

[QUOTE=David Watts;4293433]

Originally Posted by Lukas Berger

I think he is using career mode though

From what I understand, the issues David is getting don't tend to be with low ab guys from rl having great seasons either, it's more with already pretty great guys who got lots of abs having even better seasons like Hornsby, Ron Santo, George Scott types.[/QUOTE

In those bug threads, I posted examples of 1 year recalc and 3 year. Both were creating super hero seasons. Both were creating the monster season clumps as well. I would be glad to use 3 year or even 5 year if it solved the problem, but it didn't with 18. Ron Santo was never a .370, 55 bomb guy even once in real life...so, it makes it goofy when he ends up being one for 3 or 4 straight seasons.

It's not low at bat guys I'm complaining about. It's the meat of baseball's best. It's like the game see's a guy that had a wonderful .333 season and say's damn, we need this guy to hit .389 with 265 hits. Folks will love that way more than .333 with 201 hits. The stats are no longer holy in this game. It's the flash and glitter., Maybe we need a mode in which player stats disappear entirely and we can all marvel at how close the league numbers are.

Well, then some other setting was messed up for you. What you describe should simply not happen in career mode, unless you got incredibly unlucky with the league average competition.

[Markus Heinsohn]

Another test in OOTP 19... career mode, 1984 league totals locked. Simmed 10 years. Only 5 individual seasons with .370+, only 50 individual season with an AVG of .330+ (so 5 per year). HR high of 56 (Kiner), #2 was Bonds (48), only 16 seasons with 40+ (so 1.6 per year). All other stats look very reasonable. So, whatever it is that causes issues in OOTP 18 (my bet is wrong settings) is no longer happening in OOTP 19.

[David Watts]

Originally Posted by Markus Heinsohn

Another test in OOTP 19... career mode, 1984 league totals locked. Simmed 10 years. Only 5 individual seasons with .370+, only 50 individual season with an AVG of .330+ (so 5 per year). HR high of 56 (Kiner), #2 was Bonds (48), only 16 seasons with 40+ (so 1.6 per year). All other stats look very reasonable. So, whatever it is that causes issues in OOTP 18 (my bet is wrong settings) is no longer happening in OOTP 19.

One question. Are you using a combo of development and recalc in these 19 tests, or is it straight recalc?

[Markus Heinsohn]

Originally Posted by David Watts

One question. Are you using a combo of development and recalc in these 19 tests, or is it straight recalc?

Player development is NOT disabled, recalc is enabled, 3 years. So I use the combo.

I also do not import players from prior to 1901.

[David Watts]

OOTP18, career mode, 3 year recalc with development on. Career fielding. real stats/remaining years Anyone remember this Dave Parker?

[Hoiles]

Originally Posted by sprague

Hey Jerry
Here is the real reason the stats don’t work In Random debut
I think the big issue is that it uses real stats. Thus as players come from all through history, if you have a bunch of pre 1940 guys in your league and mostly deadball, they will be rating like 8 hr.
Then you sprinkle in a few post 40 guys with 30-40 real homers, and the way the game calculates stats, it has to find more home runs than the league has and of course awards them to the high guys, hence a 35 hr guy hits 55 in random debut because where else are those hr going to go?
It’s not broken just does not fit with the league engine.
Neautralized stats won’t work either. They don’t alter dead ball hr or k much so even those will be way off. You need instead a stats folder of direct translated stats, where 4 hr in 1904 is 30 hr today.
Really for proper random debut should have something like the Davenport translations. While not 100% they are the closest available for what random debut requires

I actually don't mind the increased HR for deadball era guys too much, as it's a fictional what-if league. What is a bit wonky is the stuff/strikeout adjustment for deadball-era pitchers. Any pitcher from the deadball era with a K rate of more than like 4/9 IP become Randy Johnson on steroids, just because strikeouts were also so rare back in those days. I guess the adjustment is more obvious for a pitcher as one who strikes out 50% more batters than the average nowadays is pretty much a hall of famer, while a hitter who hits 50% more home runs than average is merely pretty good.

[David Watts]

5 years in and I've already had hit seasons of 266,242,231 and 230. As you can see I already had a +.400 guy as well. Game is simming so I can't check, but I would be surprised if Parker was the only one to do so.

[Markus Heinsohn]

Originally Posted by David Watts

OOTP18, career mode, 3 year recalc with development on. Career fielding. real stats/remaining years Anyone remember this Dave Parker?Attachment 543661

Well, Parker had some great seasons, and you are playing in the 40's where the league AVG was actually more than 10 points higher than in Parkers playing time. So, considering this, what I see in this screenshot is not entirely impossible if your league is weak.

[Markus Heinsohn]

OK, I fired up OOTP 18 an hour ago, imported 1970 in random debut, career mode, simmed 7 years. Stats look fine to me. Only 3 season of .370 (Mantle hit .390 one year). HR looks good, only one fluke year (Rizzo had a great season with 56 HR in 1970 with 12 WAR and 1.150 OPS), so I do not see any glaring issues in OOTP 18 either in this particular short test.

One thing to keep in mind: Fluke years will sometimes happen, there is no way to prevent that and would be totally unrealistic... it's just a matter of sample size. However, if you get several fluke years per season which simply make no sense, then there is something wrong.

[Markus Heinsohn]

Ran another OOTP 19 test... 1984 stats locked, 10 years. Individual stats look perfect. So for me this issue is settled, please try this mode again in OOTP 19

[JaBurns]

Originally Posted by Markus Heinsohn

Ran another OOTP 19 test... 1984 stats locked, 10 years. Individual stats look perfect. So for me this issue is settled, please try this mode again in OOTP 19

I will use this mode staring tomorrow, I am going to include all the players in the database and see if pre-1901 players send the stats crazy, I will lock the stats at 1984 for my test. I just read Mr. Watt's post about the pitchers being "Super Human" if imported so I will restrict the players to 1901 and after.....

[Jerry Helper]

I’m not sure if I should be encouraged or discouraged by what I’ve read here...

[Markus Heinsohn]

Originally Posted by Jerry Helper

I’m not sure if I should be encouraged or discouraged by what I’ve read here...

Why?

[David Watts]

[David Watts]

[Lukas Berger]

Originally Posted by David Watts

Attachment 543673

I don't understand what you think is wrong there

There's nothing there that's all that far off from anything Cash did in real life.

The difference in environment between the 1960's, when Cash really played, and which were an extreme pitchers era and the 50's which were more of a hitters era (or the 80's if you're using 84 as the baseline), along with random variance are more than enough to explain the marginally higher HR totals and higher BA's in a few seasons.

That's almost exactly what you'd expect to see if you dropped the real Cash into either the 50's or the 80's. He would hit better in either of those periods, because the league as a whole hit better.