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Old 01-30-2013, 01:15 PM   #21
David Watts
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Wonder if OOTP14 will come with a warning never to use the "pitch to contact" feature if one is using the MLB quickstart and managing the Tigers.
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Old 01-30-2013, 01:57 PM   #22
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If this feature works correctly, then pitchers with high control ratings will be better at this, and vice versa. Pitch to contact doesn't simply mean "throw the ball down the middle," or at least that's not what it should mean. A guy like Greg Maddux can successfully pitch to contact and still be highly successful because he can throw quality strikes that are still difficult to hit hard. Conversely, a guy who doesn't have great control is more likely to throw a meatball when pitching to contact, which leads to more hits, many of which will be hit hard.

All that considered, I can see the skepticism of some of the people regarding this feature. I hope it works correctly, because if it doesn't, it could cause some serious issues or just be a useless feature.
The problem in my mind is that the definition of "pitch to contact" that you just gave here ("throw quality strikes that are still difficult to hit hard") is what a pitcher is always trying to do, in aggregate. Pitchers who are known for "pitching to contact" are just pitchers who don't tend to have swing-and-miss stuff. Aside from situations where a guy is trying to get someone to rollover on a change-up to ground into a double play (which seems like it's kind of modeled in the game already) it's hard for me to envision a situation when pitcher would deliberately try to make a pitch easier to hit.
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Old 01-30-2013, 02:10 PM   #23
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FWIW, there was a concerted effort here in Houston to have Roy Oswalt do more "pitching to contact" late in his career, mostly I remember, to cut down on the stress and potential injury related to back issues.

I remember it being a bit painful to watch and the results definitely show, see 2009 here, Roy Oswalt Statistics and History - Baseball-Reference.com. A lot less curveballs in strikeout counts and a lot more fastballs (or rather strikes) early in the count.

This will be interesting to monitor. Oswalt could make it "work" because he had very good control and command to begin with, and as I said, the sole motivation was maintaining his health, which it did seem to do.

OTOH, so many marginal pitchers are "head cases", that asking them to try this, when they're struggling just to maintain focus and stay in the game, seems contrary to the norm, at least in real life.
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Old 01-30-2013, 02:22 PM   #24
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The problem in my mind is that the definition of "pitch to contact" that you just gave here ("throw quality strikes that are still difficult to hit hard") is what a pitcher is always trying to do, in aggregate. Pitchers who are known for "pitching to contact" are just pitchers who don't tend to have swing-and-miss stuff. Aside from situations where a guy is trying to get someone to rollover on a change-up to ground into a double play (which seems like it's kind of modeled in the game already) it's hard for me to envision a situation when pitcher would deliberately try to make a pitch easier to hit.
You're misinterpreting what I wrote. I said that pitching to contact for a guy like Greg Maddux is more effective because he has tremendous control and can "throw quality strikes that are still difficult to hit hard." Not every pitcher has that kind of pinpoint control; in fact, few do. That's why the idea of pitching to contact is so arbitrary.

I think the problem with this whole "pitch to contact" thing is that it means different things to different people. To me, it should mean attacking the strike zone to try to get quicker outs. It has nothing to do with trying to get a ground ball in a double play situation. That's a whole different strategy that involves throwing sinkers or two-seamers or a breaking ball down and away, or trying to jam hitters and get the ball put in play on the ground.

Pitching to contact should mean attacking the strike zone early in at bats, hoping to get quick outs, whether it be ground ball, fly ball, pop up, whatever kind of out. It's a strategy that's most effective with a big lead when nibbling or trying to make the perfect pitch isn't necessary. If I'm up 10-1 in the seventh inning and Miguel Cabrera is leading off, I'm attacking the strike zone and making him earn his way on base rather than nibbling at the corners or trying to get him to chase and risking a walk. Even if he homers, it's still 10-2 with nobody on base. I'd rather that than a leadoff walk that could spark a rally. Sure, a leadoff hit could do the same, but at least if the ball is put in play, my defense can make a play. There's no way to defend a walk.

In simpler terms, pitching to contact should mean I'm going right at this guy and making him earn his way on.
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Old 01-30-2013, 02:24 PM   #25
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Originally Posted by BIG17EASY View Post
If this feature works correctly, then pitchers with high control ratings will be better at this, and vice versa. Pitch to contact doesn't simply mean "throw the ball down the middle," or at least that's not what it should mean. A guy like Greg Maddux can successfully pitch to contact and still be highly successful because he can throw quality strikes that are still difficult to hit hard. Conversely, a guy who doesn't have great control is more likely to throw a meatball when pitching to contact, which leads to more hits, many of which will be hit hard.

All that considered, I can see the skepticism of some of the people regarding this feature. I hope it works correctly, because if it doesn't, it could cause some serious issues or just be a useless feature.
I would argue movement as well as control is important
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Old 01-30-2013, 02:33 PM   #26
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In simpler terms, pitching to contact should mean I'm going right at this guy and making him earn his way on.
I agree with this, and with the idea that this will probably mean different things to different people. In OOTP terms though, if the extreme opposite is the "pitch around" command, it's unclear to me what the practical incentive is in choosing between "pitch to contact" and just "pitch." I mean, I'm sort of figuring that the pitcher with the control that I trust to "pitch to contact" isn't going to walk a lot of people anyway, right?

To me, "pitch to contact" seems more about the pitcher's underlying skill set, and not about a conscious command that a manager would give him from the dugout. But there are certainly others on this board with more real-life baseball experience than me.
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Old 01-30-2013, 03:08 PM   #27
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I agree with this, and with the idea that this will probably mean different things to different people. In OOTP terms though, if the extreme opposite is the "pitch around" command, it's unclear to me what the practical incentive is in choosing between "pitch to contact" and just "pitch." I mean, I'm sort of figuring that the pitcher with the control that I trust to "pitch to contact" isn't going to walk a lot of people anyway, right?

To me, "pitch to contact" seems more about the pitcher's underlying skill set, and not about a conscious command that a manager would give him from the dugout. But there are certainly others on this board with more real-life baseball experience than me.
Exactly. Basically, the pitch to contact idea should be the idea that a pitching coach or manager or even catcher says to the pitcher, "Hey, let's go right at these guys."

If you think about it, you shouldn't need to tell your best pitcher or pitchers to do this because they're talented enough. Do we really think that Justin Verlander has to be told to pitch to contact with a big lead? It's that young guy who has a tendency to nibble or a guy with poor control who you have to coax into being aggressive.
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Old 01-30-2013, 05:52 PM   #28
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If effective "pitch to contact" means that a pitcher will get the ball into play faster (and get outs), then this would reduce the average pitches per batter. A manager may opt for this strategy especially where he wants his starter to last deeper in to the game, which might be needed if the bullpen has been over worked in recent games. Just a thought.

And here is one sportswriter's definition of "pitch to contact" which I think is reasonable:

"For those desiring a precise definition of pitch to contact, start with this: a pitcher who is trying to get hitters to put the ball in play, preferably on the ground, within three pitches. That inherently means the pitcher isn't thinking strikeout, but rather making his best pitch in a hittable zone."
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Old 01-30-2013, 10:06 PM   #29
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I think some posts above are making way too big a deal about what is essentially a minor addition to the game, and others are understanding the purpose perfectly.

In real life, a manager can opt to 'call a game' from the dugout. You can't do that in OOTP (at least not yet), but an OOTP manager should at least be able to give some vague instructions to his pitcher. A 'pitch to contact' option at least allows the manager to tell his pitcher to try to stay in the zone, to keep his pitch count down, and to not throw 'chase pitches'. As I pointed out above, it's not an option you'd want to use very often, since strikeouts are good. But it at least adds to the options available when playing out games, and I can't see how that's a bad thing.
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Old 01-30-2013, 10:41 PM   #30
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Pitching to contact should mean attacking the strike zone early in at bats, hoping to get quick outs, whether it be ground ball, fly ball, pop up, whatever kind of out.
That's exactly what it means, or at least that what it meant to me when I pitched. To me, a perfect inning was three outs on three pitches. Why waste time and effort? When you attack the strike zone you make hitters hit your pitch. There's no time for a hitter to be selective. Attacking puts them on the defensive.

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It's a strategy that's most effective with a big lead when nibbling or trying to make the perfect pitch isn't necessary. If I'm up 10-1 in the seventh inning and Miguel Cabrera is leading off, I'm attacking the strike zone and making him earn his way on base rather than nibbling at the corners or trying to get him to chase and risking a walk. Even if he homers, it's still 10-2 with nobody on base.
That's thinking like a pitcher, not a statistician. Your job is to win the game, not make a sabermatrician happy. Watch the smart pitchers and they do just what you described. They give up a lot of meaningless solo home runs (statistically that's bad) but they give them up early in the count so they don't throw a lot of pitches and expend energy on one hitter who can't cost them the game no matter what he does. When all is said and done the smart pitcher's team wins, and the smart pitcher makes some sabermatrician unhappy.

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In simpler terms, pitching to contact should mean I'm going right at this guy and making him earn his way on.
Yep. And the Hall of Fame is full of smart pitchers who pitched to contact and made the hitters earn it. If they struck out the guy along the way fine, but it was not their primary goal.
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Old 01-30-2013, 11:39 PM   #31
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I think some posts above are making way too big a deal about what is essentially a minor addition to the game, and others are understanding the purpose perfectly.

In real life, a manager can opt to 'call a game' from the dugout. You can't do that in OOTP (at least not yet), but an OOTP manager should at least be able to give some vague instructions to his pitcher. A 'pitch to contact' option at least allows the manager to tell his pitcher to try to stay in the zone, to keep his pitch count down, and to not throw 'chase pitches'. As I pointed out above, it's not an option you'd want to use very often, since strikeouts are good. But it at least adds to the options available when playing out games, and I can't see how that's a bad thing.
I disagree if it is too effective. In the 500-700 games I watch per season a re-occurring story is the inability of most pitchers to "pitch to contact". As I said earlier, this feature needs to be combined with a "nibbles at corners when I have a big lead" rating or it is artificial.

A manager can presume to call the game from the dugout but it must match the pitchers capabilty or it's not realistic.
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Old 01-31-2013, 12:53 AM   #32
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I disagree if it is too effective. In the 500-700 games I watch per season a re-occurring story is the inability of most pitchers to "pitch to contact". As I said earlier, this feature needs to be combined with a "nibbles at corners when I have a big lead" rating or it is artificial.
And as I said earlier, if it works properly, it won't be 'too effective'. If it's 'too effective', it's broken. So to that extent, I agree with you; if the feature doesn't work, then I don't want it in the game. But then I could say that about any feature.

I'd rather we assume it works as it should until we see otherwise, and discuss its merits on that basis.
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Old 01-31-2013, 01:29 AM   #33
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And as I said earlier, if it works properly, it won't be 'too effective'. If it's 'too effective', it's broken. So to that extent, I agree with you; if the feature doesn't work, then I don't want it in the game. But then I could say that about any feature.

I'd rather we assume it works as it should until we see otherwise, and discuss its merits on that basis.
Good point.

My question now would be why pitching to contact became such a priority? What evidence exists that it works? So many pitchers can't throw strikes with a big lead. This is casually observable. Why is that not clearly identified and implemented in the game?

Come to think of it SP in OOTP seem to get more decisions and wins than RL. Perhaps it is because they don't give up cheap hits and runs with big leadsthe way RL pitchers do.
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Old 01-31-2013, 03:30 AM   #34
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My question now would be why pitching to contact became such a priority?
It's not a priority, and I don't know where you got the impression that it was. What is something of a priority is to expand on the options available when playing out games, since they haven't changed in six years. If you have other ideas about how to do that, let someone on the beta team or Markus know.

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What evidence exists that it works? So many pitchers can't throw strikes with a big lead. This is casually observable. Why is that not clearly identified and implemented in the game?
I don't know what you mean. Right now, pitchers in OOTP pitch the same way whether it's a one-run game or a 23-1 blowout. I doubt that's true in real life. And no, I don't personally have any evidence about that. If you do, that would be interesting, though to the extent possible, nothing in OOTP is based on anecdotal evidence or what is 'casually observable'.

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Come to think of it SP in OOTP seem to get more decisions and wins than RL. Perhaps it is because they don't give up cheap hits and runs with big leadsthe way RL pitchers do.
I don't follow. First, I haven't observed what you have about decisions for pitchers in OOTP. If you have any proof that's the case, then that means there's a problem that should be fixed. But if there is a problem, there are many far more likely causes than how pitchers in OOTP pitch with a big lead. It seems more likely it would have to do with how innings are distributed among SPs. If OOTP starters go 5+ innings too often, you're more likely to get SP wins, for example.
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Old 01-31-2013, 12:16 PM   #35
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That's thinking like a pitcher, not a statistician. Your job is to win the game, not make a sabermatrician happy. Watch the smart pitchers and they do just what you described. They give up a lot of meaningless solo home runs (statistically that's bad) but they give them up early in the count so they don't throw a lot of pitches and expend energy on one hitter who can't cost them the game no matter what he does. When all is said and done the smart pitcher's team wins, and the smart pitcher makes some sabermatrician unhappy.
FWIW, some sabermetricians are now starting to try to measure just what you described by using a concept of Win Probability Added. It's supposed to determine how much a particular play is likely to impact the outcome of a game. So Cabrera's solo home run that makes the game 10-2 wouldn't negatively impact the pitcher's WPA nearly as much as a solo home run would if the pitcher's team had just 3 runs instead of 10. The WPA for a particular play is higher when the score is close, and higher the later in the game it is, so the highest WPA plays are late in tight ballgames.
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Old 02-01-2013, 08:56 AM   #36
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I think some posts above are making way too big a deal about what is essentially a minor addition to the game, and others are understanding the purpose perfectly.

In real life, a manager can opt to 'call a game' from the dugout. You can't do that in OOTP (at least not yet), but an OOTP manager should at least be able to give some vague instructions to his pitcher. A 'pitch to contact' option at least allows the manager to tell his pitcher to try to stay in the zone, to keep his pitch count down, and to not throw 'chase pitches'. As I pointed out above, it's not an option you'd want to use very often, since strikeouts are good. But it at least adds to the options available when playing out games, and I can't see how that's a bad thing.
I'm fine with that, just so long as the outcome is something like pushing the close door button in an elevator. Most of the time you're not sure if it's even wired up.

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Old 02-01-2013, 09:05 AM   #37
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This would be great for sinkerballers....and they would stand out like the Knuckleballers now
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Old 02-01-2013, 09:29 AM   #38
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FWIW, some sabermetricians are now starting to try to measure just what you described by using a concept of Win Probability Added. It's supposed to determine how much a particular play is likely to impact the outcome of a game. So Cabrera's solo home run that makes the game 10-2 wouldn't negatively impact the pitcher's WPA nearly as much as a solo home run would if the pitcher's team had just 3 runs instead of 10. The WPA for a particular play is higher when the score is close, and higher the later in the game it is, so the highest WPA plays are late in tiight ballgames.
Sabermatricians have too much time on their hands. In the end, all that matters is did they win or not. I couldn't. Care less about the impact every single thing had an any given game. A solo HR, or any HR for that matter for a team that loses means nothing, even if that HR gave that team a temporary lead. The end result, they lost.

This trend of having to start analyzing every burp that happens in a dugout for it's impact on a game is silly.

My only question: did they win or lose. Even with all these new stats, the best teams still lose around 60-70 games and the worst teams generally lose around 90 games, just as it has been the entire history of the sport so I really don't see where all these sabermetric stats have made any difference. Just people with too much time on their hands looking for something to do.

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Old 02-01-2013, 10:42 AM   #39
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I really don't see where all these sabermetric stats have made any difference. Just people with too much time on their hands looking for something to do.
If you're sitting in a GM office deciding whether to invest $100 million in a player, you probably want at least a bit of information about how that player will affect your chances of winning games. And our understanding of what goes into winning games has evolved a lot over the last few decades.
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Old 02-01-2013, 01:00 PM   #40
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Sabermatricians have too much time on their hands. In the end, all that matters is did they win or not. I couldn't. Care less about the impact every single thing had an any given game. A solo HR, or any HR for that matter for a team that loses means nothing, even if that HR gave that team a temporary lead. The end result, they lost.

This trend of having to start analyzing every burp that happens in a dugout for it's impact on a game is silly.

My only question: did they win or lose. Even with all these new stats, the best teams still lose around 60-70 games and the worst teams generally lose around 90 games, just as it has been the entire history of the sport so I really don't see where all these sabermetric stats have made any difference. Just people with too much time on their hands looking for something to do.
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