(Almost) 100 years of simulating

Empty Eightysix · 10-16-2015, 05:15 PM

To see the evolution of the 2015/16 NHL season in Franchise Hockey Manager into the future, I decided to simulate a 100 years on default settings to see what amount of points/goals is the highest each year and what nationalities make up the top 5 draft picks every year. Because of a recurring crash to desktop (they only first started happening after the year 2100) I had to stop simming just short of a 100 years:

Follow this link for a larger version of this picture: http://oi60.tinypic.com/1lmqv.jpg

In my opinion the results are quite realistic. Perhaps the points/goals scored are a little too low; the highest being over 100 points a season seems to be the exception rather than the rule. Also most records still stand or are broken by the first batch of (real) players, so fictional players don't seem good enough to beat the them. Even after many decades.

Draft picks seem to be realistic. Perhaps a little low on Russians.

If anyone else wants to know any data from my savegame, feel free to ask.

Crosscheck · 10-16-2015, 06:24 PM

Stupid question, but how long did 100 years take you?!

I am trying to sim to a 10-15 year "background" for a league, and it is taking forever. Yes, I have all of the optional leagues set "on", but still...

JeffR · 10-16-2015, 07:03 PM

Could you upload the save for us? (instructions here, or put it on a filesharing site like filedropper.com or dropbox and PM me the link) We'd like to see what's causing that late crash.

dave1927p · 10-16-2015, 08:38 PM

Would love to see a screenshot of the player career stats who led the league in points for 2086

Empty Eightysix · 10-17-2015, 04:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Crosscheck

Stupid question, but how long did 100 years take you?!

I am trying to sim to a 10-15 year "background" for a league, and it is taking forever. Yes, I have all of the optional leagues set "on", but still...

Maybe 3 days of full-time simulating the game in the background. I don't have any optional league set on, that makes the process go much faster.

Quote:

Originally Posted by JeffR

Could you upload the save for us? (instructions here, or put it on a filesharing site like filedropper.com or dropbox and PM me the link) We'd like to see what's causing that late crash.

Sure. It's called 2108sim.lg.zip

Quote:

Originally Posted by dave1927p

Would love to see a screenshot of the player career stats who led the league in points for 2086

Here it is:

Empty Eightysix · 10-18-2015, 02:27 PM

Hall of Fame inductees

Is 'first year' (FY) supposed to mean the first year the player appears in the game? Because it currently does.

It seems like the players that are already in the game in 2015, do extremely well, since there are 8 players from 2015 that made the Hall of Fame (notice Connor McDavid is not one of them..). After that there seem to be 10 years that produce very little talent. Looks like that is the first batch of generated players failing to make an impression against the batch of real players that started the game.

After 2030 it gets more balanced again, probably because the 'real' players are now starting to get old and retire.

Alessandro · 10-18-2015, 04:48 PM

That Uusitalo guy made a non-sense move when he was 16, he was an established player in the SHL, yet moved down a league, then from the AllSvenskan straight up in the AHL. Doesn't seem too realistic.
Can you show me the career of Oleksandr Kulyk?

dave1927p · 10-18-2015, 04:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Empty Eightysix

After that there seem to be 10 years that produce very little talent. Looks like that is the first batch of generated players failing to make an impression against the batch of real players that started the game.

After 2030 it gets more balanced again, probably because the 'real' players are now starting to get old and retire.

no doubt that is the case. The difference between the 3.5 average for real players that make the nhl and the 3.0 average for newgens who make the nhl.

greenOak · 10-18-2015, 09:47 PM

IMO one of the big problems is that the prospects in the initial database are way too good. The drafts from 15-16 through to 19-20 are extremely strong.

gbmoore121 · 10-19-2015, 12:50 AM

What causes the crash? I did a historical from 31 to present and get a crash when I try to view the HOF. I can still sim forward and take other action but no HOF.

Empty Eightysix · 10-19-2015, 04:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gbmoore121

IMO one of the big problems is that the prospects in the initial database are way too good. The drafts from 15-16 through to 19-20 are extremely strong.

Yes that seems to be the case. In 2015 there are 8 guys that made the HoF whilst in the 10 years after that, the game generated only 3 guys that made the HoF.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alessandro

That Uusitalo guy made a non-sense move when he was 16, he was an established player in the SHL, yet moved down a league, then from the AllSvenskan straight up in the AHL. Doesn't seem too realistic.
Can you show me the career of Oleksandr Kulyk?

Oleksandr Kulyk was picked 52th at the 2070 NHL Entry Draft.

Alessandro · 10-19-2015, 06:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by greenOak

IMO one of the big problems is that the prospects in the initial database are way too good. The drafts from 15-16 through to 19-20 are extremely strong.

This is true, but also I think the game makes it too easy for juniors to play pro hockey. The two european guys the author posted the screenshots of had a seamless path of it.

Peter- · 10-19-2015, 07:14 AM

Does not the "+/-"-stats work in leagues like SHL, Allsvenskan and other leagues?

Sebastian Palkowski · 10-19-2015, 05:45 PM

Pretty cool post, thanks for that. Seeing the game work (almost) 100 years and don't go crazy is a good sign. Of course improvements can always be made, so feedback threads like this are very good for us!

JeffR · 10-20-2015, 02:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peter-

Does not the "+/-"-stats work in leagues like SHL, Allsvenskan and other leagues?

If the leagues are set to non-playable, the stats for them are generated by a simplified (and much, much faster) system that doesn't include plus-minus at the moment.

rmartin65 · 10-22-2015, 02:30 PM

Can you post Cam Thompson?

tarashnat · 10-22-2015, 03:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alessandro

That Uusitalo guy made a non-sense move when he was 16, he was an established player in the SHL, yet moved down a league, then from the AllSvenskan straight up in the AHL. Doesn't seem too realistic.
<snip>

Maybe his team was relegated? Notice the sharp drop off in production the SHL season despite almost double the games played. Team was probably bad in SHL that season. Could have been a steal in the draft because few scouted in the AllSvenskan.

Then he gets drafted, signs NHL contract, and either makes the big team and then gets sent down for seasoning or starts in the AHL after a decent camp and gets called up to fill a roster hole later in season.

This is not a normal path, but not one too far from believable. A great talent gets stuck on a bad team. Could have been forgotten, but the scouts from the Caps found him.

Alessandro · 10-22-2015, 04:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tarashnat

Maybe his team was relegated?

Still he signed with another team. A young guy like him should be renewed of his contract or at the very least sign with another team in the SHL. Then he played two full season in the AllSvenskan. No way a guy with this number, at his age, will not move to the SHL after first year in AllSvenskan.
Did you see Kulyk's career? It's even more unrealistic, if even possible.

Empty Eightysix · 10-23-2015, 08:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rmartin65

Can you post Cam Thompson?

He was drafted #1 in 2062.

tarashnat · 10-23-2015, 09:36 AM

Without looking at all the players and making a chart of all their career trajectories, you cannot make a comment on whether it is too easy or hard to make a career in FHM 2. These seem to be the generational talents that had long careers. Sort of like Nick Lidström. His career is "too easy" considering he was on a middling Västerås IK squad in the SEL.

10-16-2015, 08:38 PM	#4
dave1927p FHM Moderator Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Brantford, ON Posts: 2,888	Would love to see a screenshot of the player career stats who led the league in points for 2086 __________________ IN 1964 THE LEAFS WON THE STANLEY CUP :: IT'S ALSO THE YEAR THE CANADIAN FLAG WAS DESIGNED...coincidence?

10-18-2015, 02:27 PM	#6
Empty Eightysix Bat Boy Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 18	Hall of Fame inductees Is 'first year' (FY) supposed to mean the first year the player appears in the game? Because it currently does. It seems like the players that are already in the game in 2015, do extremely well, since there are 8 players from 2015 that made the Hall of Fame (notice Connor McDavid is not one of them..). After that there seem to be 10 years that produce very little talent. Looks like that is the first batch of generated players failing to make an impression against the batch of real players that started the game. After 2030 it gets more balanced again, probably because the 'real' players are now starting to get old and retire. Last edited by Empty Eightysix; 10-18-2015 at 02:29 PM.

10-19-2015, 12:50 AM	#10
gbmoore121 All Star Reserve Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: Arizona Posts: 602	What causes the crash? I did a historical from 31 to present and get a crash when I try to view the HOF. I can still sim forward and take other action but no HOF. __________________ WWPF- via DDS Pro Football

10-19-2015, 05:45 PM	#14
Sebastian Palkowski Developer Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Hamburg, Germany Posts: 5,113	Pretty cool post, thanks for that. Seeing the game work (almost) 100 years and don't go crazy is a good sign. Of course improvements can always be made, so feedback threads like this are very good for us! __________________ Buy Franchise Hockey Manager 10

10-16-2015, 05:15 PM	#1
Empty Eightysix Bat Boy Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 18	(Almost) 100 years of simulating To see the evolution of the 2015/16 NHL season in Franchise Hockey Manager into the future, I decided to simulate a 100 years on default settings to see what amount of points/goals is the highest each year and what nationalities make up the top 5 draft picks every year. Because of a recurring crash to desktop (they only first started happening after the year 2100) I had to stop simming just short of a 100 years: Follow this link for a larger version of this picture: http://oi60.tinypic.com/1lmqv.jpg In my opinion the results are quite realistic. Perhaps the points/goals scored are a little too low; the highest being over 100 points a season seems to be the exception rather than the rule. Also most records still stand or are broken by the first batch of (real) players, so fictional players don't seem good enough to beat the them. Even after many decades. Draft picks seem to be realistic. Perhaps a little low on Russians. If anyone else wants to know any data from my savegame, feel free to ask.

10-16-2015, 06:24 PM	#2
Crosscheck Bat Boy Join Date: Oct 2015 Posts: 4	Stupid question, but how long did 100 years take you?! I am trying to sim to a 10-15 year "background" for a league, and it is taking forever. Yes, I have all of the optional leagues set "on", but still...

10-16-2015, 07:03 PM	#3
JeffR FHM Producer Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Kelowna, BC Posts: 16,623	Could you upload the save for us? (instructions here, or put it on a filesharing site like filedropper.com or dropbox and PM me the link) We'd like to see what's causing that late crash.

10-18-2015, 04:48 PM	#7
Alessandro Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 6,387	That Uusitalo guy made a non-sense move when he was 16, he was an established player in the SHL, yet moved down a league, then from the AllSvenskan straight up in the AHL. Doesn't seem too realistic. Can you show me the career of Oleksandr Kulyk?

10-18-2015, 09:47 PM	#9
greenOak Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Aug 2014 Posts: 203	IMO one of the big problems is that the prospects in the initial database are way too good. The drafts from 15-16 through to 19-20 are extremely strong.

10-19-2015, 07:14 AM	#13
Peter- Minors (Single A) Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 56	Does not the "+/-"-stats work in leagues like SHL, Allsvenskan and other leagues?

10-22-2015, 02:30 PM	#16
rmartin65 Bat Boy Join Date: Sep 2015 Posts: 9	Can you post Cam Thompson?

10-23-2015, 09:36 AM	#20
tarashnat Major Leagues Join Date: Sep 2013 Location: New York City Posts: 381	Without looking at all the players and making a chart of all their career trajectories, you cannot make a comment on whether it is too easy or hard to make a career in FHM 2. These seem to be the generational talents that had long careers. Sort of like Nick Lidström. His career is "too easy" considering he was on a middling Västerås IK squad in the SEL.