Player Speed Ratings

[Drstrangelove]

Irl, in 1962, Mays, Mantle and Clemente stole a total of 33 bases. Speed is directly related to stealing attempts. They were not attempting to steal very often. So, what is wrong with the speed ratings? The issue I do see is with Mays' base running skill, which was notoriously amazing and certainly much higher than the other two. But that's me.

Giving them HIGH speed, thus having them steal 30-50 bases is flatly wrong. Clemente was not a base stealer, and Mantle's knees by 1963 already prohibited that type of running. (Even if it was popular, which is wasn't in that era.) Mays, of course, chose not to run, so to keep the bat in McCovey's hands, but that's history, so to speak.

[Dyzalot]

Originally Posted by Drstrangelove

Irl, in 1962, Mays, Mantle and Clemente stole a total of 33 bases. Speed is directly related to stealing attempts. They were not attempting to steal very often. So, what is wrong with the speed ratings? The issue I do see is with Mays' base running skill, which was notoriously amazing and certainly much higher than the other two. But that's me.

Giving them HIGH speed, thus having them steal 30-50 bases is flatly wrong. Clemente was not a base stealer, and Mantle's knees by 1963 already prohibited that type of running. (Even if it was popular, which is wasn't in that era.) Mays, of course, chose not to run, so to keep the bat in McCovey's hands, but that's history, so to speak.

Someone posted earlier in this thread a quote from the manual and it doesn't match what you are saying. As far as I can tell from what the post earlier in this thread says about speed, if those guys were fast "base to base" but didn't steal many bases then shouldn't they have an above average speed rating with a low stealing rating?

[Reed]

SPEED is 2 components. How often you attempt to steal a base and your base to base running, ( I think how often you attempt to take an extra base is incorporated here. If you do not attempt to steal very often, then the best rating you can have in this area is average. I imagine stealing attempts is weighed much higher but that is a guess on my part.

STEALING is how likely you will be successful IF you attempt to steal. If you only attempt 5 steals and are successful each time, then you will have a poor, or average at best, SPEED rating but a high STEALING rating.

BASE-RUNNING instincts are basically how smart you are on the base path. If you are slow but never get thrown out attempting to take an extra base then you will probably have a high rating. If you are fast and take a lot of extra bases but get thrown out more than most, then you will have a low BASERUNNING rating but probably a high SPEED rating.

[Matt Arnold]

Yeah, as people have mentioned, the largest use of speed is how often they steal bases. It does have a factor in other places (it's a component of in-game baserunning, like when you're asked to send a runner, or infield hits, or stretching hits into extra bases).

Stealing as mentioned is sb%. So a guy like Donaldson is not very fast/doesn't try to steal much (low speed), but generally has a pretty high success rate (high stealing).

Baserunning is about instincts, so guys with high baserunning scores will tend to get doubled off bases less, and also be better at taking extra bases.

I agree that it's kind of annoying to see guys like Clemente or Mantle with low speed scores, but also keep in mind that we try to base historical ratings as much as possible on raw stats that we have, and unfortunately there's no public statcast running speed values going back to the 1950s, so we have to base the ratings on something.

[Drstrangelove]

Good examples are Herb Washington, Mickey Mantle (early days), and Deion Sanders. Those 3 were certifiably about the fastest around, yet their stolen base numbers look mediocre compared to guys like Morgan or Raines.

[Argonaut]

Thanks Matt. As I suspected Speed does have multiple uses. Perhaps Speed should be broken up into 2 components - Speed and Threat to Steal. But that might be hard to pull historical data for the pure Speed component.

[Dyzalot]

I'm surprised that speed isn't a much more "raw" number that things like outfield range and bunt for a hit abilities would be at least partly based upon. Extracting something like speed out of only one tiny aspect of the game seems a bit counter intuitive. I understand using stolen bases to help get a speed value but wouldn't it make sense to also use defensive metrics as well as general base running metrics to tease out an appropriate value? Why is speed so directly tied to base stealing when in the real MLB it probably has a lot more effect on defense than offense?

[t-bone shuffle]

What I know is that strictly measured footspeed,(home to 1B time, 1B to 3B, etc.) is an important part of player evaluation in professional and major division NCAA baseball.

The game doesn't really account for this in the way it's valued in reality. It's always bothered me some because it will occasionally produce an unrealistic combination of baserunning abilities with position range ratings.

I'm sure it's a function of the way the game engine works to produce accurate statistical results. Which I've come to accept.

But if you are hoping to see speed as an exact measurable, it's not here. It's certainly approximated when you see high ratings in all three categories.

In the real world (again Professional/major college) there is no such thing (for example) as an OF rated as ++ Range (scouted evaluation) who doesn't have at least + Footspeed (measured times against level averages). This isn't to say that it guarantees a good/great overall OF rating, because there are obviously many variables that make a player carry a high defensive position rating.

Don't know if this is helpful or not, but I have reached the point of believing that the system overall approximates the effects of measured footspeed as best it can.

[battists]

The other part of all of this is you are talking about real-world players. OOTP doesn't know a THING about real world players other than statistics. So for MLB players, there is a human being assigning a speed rating (I believe).

For historical players, the game can only extrapolate a speed rating based on historically-kept statistics like SBs.

I could be wrong about this, but it's at least part of the equation I think.

[Dyzalot]

Originally Posted by battists

The other part of all of this is you are talking about real-world players. OOTP doesn't know a THING about real world players other than statistics. So for MLB players, there is a human being assigning a speed rating (I believe).

For historical players, the game can only extrapolate a speed rating based on historically-kept statistics like SBs.

I could be wrong about this, but it's at least part of the equation I think.

But why only use SB stats when you could also use defensive stats as well as baserunning stats, infield hit stats, bunt hit stats, etc. to get a more accurate picture of speed? Certainly seems that if speed is going to affect things like baserunning that baserunning stats should be a part of the picture when evaluating speed.

Also it isn't just about "real world" players. It bothers my sense of immersion every time I see a fictional player generated with an excellent outfield range but no speed.

[battists]

Originally Posted by Dyzalot

But why only use SB stats when you could also use defensive stats as well as baserunning stats, infield hit stats, bunt hit stats, etc. to get a more accurate picture of speed? Certainly seems that if speed is going to affect things like baserunning that baserunning stats should be a part of the picture when evaluating speed.

Well, I don't know what stats are used for this, tbh. I was just stating that there is limited data from which to pull, particularly for historical players.

Originally Posted by Dyzalot

Also it isn't just about "real world" players. It bothers my sense of immersion every time I see a fictional player generated with an excellent outfield range but no speed.

Agree with you there, but that's a separate issue.

[Reed]

You are misinterpreting what Matt said. If a player is generated with excellent outfield range but no speed means he is fast or can quickly judge where a ball is going to etc., but for some reason he will not attempt many stolen basis. Maybe he can not get a good read on pitchers or he can not slide avoiding tags, etc..
Just because a player has good defensive range does not mean they will attempt a lot of stolen bases.

[Pirates]

On Clemente's running speed:

Sparky Anderson said: When he hit a ground ball to the infield, he was flying to first. That fielder better not be napping. People didn’t realize how fast he was. He only stole bases if it meant something.

Al Campanis said:
Then we had the timed races – 60 yards. Everybody’s running about 7.2, 7.3, which is an average major league time. Then Clemente came and ran a 6.4-plus. That’s a track man’s time! And in a baseball uniform!" [40] "Hell, the world’s record then was only 6.1. I couldn’t believe it." [41] "I asked him to run again, and he was even a little faster. He could fly!" [42]

These 2 guys knew more about baseball than anyone that created these crazy formulas.

When I play, I just edit historical running speeds for players that I know are incorrect.

[NoOne]

It's also important to remember that "slow" is a relative term for this group of professional athletes.

One of the funniest things i have witnessed is some west coast reporter that constantly ragged on Adrian Gonzales (1b of dodgers et al.) about how slow he was. After more than a few articles that mentioned it, someone proposed a race, and they did it.

The 'clod' gonzalez left the guy int he dust, lol.

whether it was a reporter, talk show radio host or just some moron off the street, you get the point.

Slow for these guys isn't necessarily slow, unless you are talking about a cecil fielder type. There aren't that many that fit this bill, even amongst the 'slow' ones.

The elite speed guys are different, but a large portion are all relatively quick and only a few steps separate most players.

We could do the math over 90' using fast and slow 40-times and it's going to be a matter of fractions of a second and a few feet. you'd have to scale down 40-times, because running around bases is not optimum. you don't get foot blocks to kick off of, and you have to complete a swing and reposition body coming out of the box to start off. Corners slow you down too.

it may look like the math is ~9' difference between a 4.5s and 5.0s 40-time, but it's going to be smaller than that. More importantly, even shorter than .375s difference too. the time makes it more obvious, imo.

taling a 1/4 of a second for an average to elite speed over 90 feet. I bet a 5.0 in the 40 is below average for mlb -- anyone that isn't ~40 and position allows doesn't allow them to be a sloth and still competent.

As far as what things do, that's been cleared up, obviously. As far as effect on stealing simply go test it, if unsure. take any clod with 80/100 and higher stealing ability and crank up his individual stealing tendancy. your manager's slider may influence the individual startegy, unless you tell him to ignore team strategy, etc.

if they are 90+, i move that slider up all the way or 1 down from max. That's with a middle-of-the-road manager strategy to start as a base.

at 80ish, i start at -2 or -1 from max, but i will put the toe into the pool and see what happens if i max it out. If they maintain their high-% success rate, i allow results to determine that last bit.

This stuff isn't 100% clockwork, but you can narrow it down significantly with a little attention and retention. You should know just by the ratings where to start, then adjust a notch or two from there based on results.

I think there's some sort of experience factor for stealing too. Some guys with high speed and ability ratings simply take 2-3 years of poor results before they start stealing at a 75-80+% clip in my leagues. That's in addition to other possible factors that potentially cause variation between 1 player and the average/what you typicalyl see from similarly rated players -- beyond random luck with same %-rate in reality.

about clemente only stealing when it matteres -- smart guy. It may reduce %sucess a little bit compared to stealing all the time, but also increase %-success in the smaller subset of meaningful moments-- more likely to catch someone sleeping, if the perception is you don't steal much. whereas if you steal all the time, you get no benefit of occasional laziness from the defense or less often at least.

if it doesn't help, it's just an e-peen. selfish, self-centered behaviour that is quantifiably detrimental to the team's success.

[Pirates]

Originally Posted by NoOne

As far as what things do, that's been cleared up, obviously. As far as effect on stealing simply go test it, if unsure. take any clod with 80/100 and higher stealing ability and crank up his individual stealing tendancy. your manager's slider may influence the individual startegy, unless you tell him to ignore team strategy, etc.

I am not concerned with stealing. My problem is, Clemente can barely tag up. Look at the card I posted.
I saw Clemente play, he never had a problem tagging up or taking an extra base.

Corners don't slow you up when tagging up.

[NoOne]

it wasn't just about the op, but the ongoing conversation. well, that's out of context as far as taking corners comment, of course it doesn't do that

just saying it's easy to deduce what it does and then work with it.

Don't like a historical player's speed. Change it. Don't make those assessments based on 3d-graphics that you see, either. you'd have to do some data mining on his results to determine how much the slower speed is affecting his average, rs or whatever else that relates in some way to speed.

how could they model someone that didn't historically steal much, but was fast, and still make it work for all other players? there's no 1 perfect way. the current way doesn't have many leaks, even though clemente, or whoever else, may slip through in some way relating to modeling speed correctly.

again, you're talking about fractions of a second here between fast and average. or, possibly even sub-50 i ootp, not really sure how that scales with the naked eye. it's impossible to see.

if you only question a handful of players out of tens of thousands, it's probably as good as it gets.

[Argonaut]

Thought this video is definitely relevant to the discussion: Albert Pujols Might Be Too Slow for Baseball. I've linked another one of this guy's videos before... they're very good quality.

I agree with the notion that all you can really do with a historical start is to edit the ratings yourself. OOTP pulls stats to generate ratings, and it would be difficult for them to go in and manually edit a lot of the famous guys who were faster than their Speed rating indicates. If they edit one or two, it's unfair to the rest of the database who didn't get the same treatment. But in your own personal save, edit away!

[fredbeene]

Originally Posted by Dyzalot

Someone posted earlier in this thread a quote from the manual and it doesn't match what you are saying. As far as I can tell from what the post earlier in this thread says about speed, if those guys were fast "base to base" but didn't steal many bases then shouldn't they have an above average speed rating with a low stealing rating?

YES YES YES.

Speed should be HOW FAST are you. It should be a component of basestealing, range (we know that is not the case though), beating gb, double plays advancing.
It should combine with BASERUNNING instincts.

If I have BOOG powell (SLOWWWWWW) and Willie Mays(FAST)
Boog should have low potential to ever be a great base stealer, and i likely would not try to stretch doubles into triples.
Willie may have low base stealing attempts for managers decision, a big bat behind him....but he should have the POTENTIAL to be basestealer, extra bases etc because of his raw speed.

Speed rating is randomly generated from the many many examples I have posted in the past. You can see hundreds of changes from 19 to 20.

Joe Morgan was not a truck his rookie year.

[fredbeene]

Originally Posted by t-bone shuffle

What I know is that strictly measured footspeed,(home to 1B time, 1B to 3B, etc.) is an important part of player evaluation in professional and major division NCAA baseball.

The game doesn't really account for this in the way it's valued in reality. It's always bothered me some because it will occasionally produce an unrealistic combination of baserunning abilities with position range ratings.

I'm sure it's a function of the way the game engine works to produce accurate statistical results. Which I've come to accept.

But if you are hoping to see speed as an exact measurable, it's not here. It's certainly approximated when you see high ratings in all three categories.

In the real world (again Professional/major college) there is no such thing (for example) as an OF rated as ++ Range (scouted evaluation) who doesn't have at least + Footspeed (measured times against level averages). This isn't to say that it guarantees a good/great overall OF rating, because there are obviously many variables that make a player carry a high defensive position rating.

Don't know if this is helpful or not, but I have reached the point of believing that the system overall approximates the effects of measured footspeed as best it can.

It is doubtful you will ever have raw speed for historical players, or things like how pitch speed or repitoire.
Some of these things need to be manuallly fixed

There is plenty of books, mags blogs on players other attributes.
Randy Jones awesome sinker ball
Clemente FASSSSSSSSSST

A combination of known facts along with likely attributes such as CF is probably your fastest man can help the ratings be more realistic.

You should be able to develop as a base stealer and baserunning instincts. Your raw speed likely peaks around 20, with more potential to go down over time rather than up

[fredbeene]

Originally Posted by Pirates

I am not concerned with stealing. My problem is, Clemente can barely tag up. Look at the card I posted.
I saw Clemente play, he never had a problem tagging up or taking an extra base.

Corners don't slow you up when tagging up.

Yes it is a problem in the game and it does take time to edit all the players.
It would be nice if there was a quickstart with edited players