Struggling to Figure Out Why R/G is Dropping

[Bears5122]

So I started a simulation in 2019 with the default settings. About 50 years later I noticed that runs per game have dropped to around 4.12-4.15. Now this is inline with some of the early 90's stuff, but not so much with modern baseball. I haven't touched any modifiers.

The thing is I can't figure out where those runs went to. Most of the historical simulation numbers seem really close. The big ones like HR/AB and AVG are a smidge below. I did notice that BABIP is listed at .289 in the league settings for some reason.

Now is there a way to juice up the runs without messing up the league completely? I don't need much but maybe some more homeruns like modern baseball. Getting the runs up around .2 per game would be cool.

I pasted the current settings below that show up. Does anything seem off?

[NoOne]

When dealing with this stuff, i think this is the most important thing to udnerstand from an end-user standpoint: It's all part of the same pie. if you take some away from over here, it gets re-disrubuted over there. (about adjusting stats through modifiers)

you have a couple options.

first, you could simply click the 'autocalculate modifers' button before the season starts, but preferably close to opening day. it's only visible prior to the season.

This will "center" all your stats around your totals. from there you can make adjustments. it's so precise that you can make those adjustments the first year with good confidence. if you want more than a ".253" BA, you can expect it to be near that, and adjust accordingly. if you want "5,585" hr, leave that modifier alone etc... (but likely need to reduce slightly if you do increase BA, lol... gets complicated)

change in player talent distribution will effect this over time. this autocalculate function is accurate for that 1 year, then slowly deviates. if you had an average league, it'll deviate up and down. if it was weak, it'll mostly deviate up, etc... relative to each individual stat and related modifier(s).

second, you can fiddle with the modifiers as they are now. i'd stay away from the totals, unless you realign them all, and use the autocalculate after any "Totals" change for sure, because it changes the results of all the current modifiers.

i don't know what you mean by close to historical stats -- the spreadsheet like page? your totals are what the +/- will be around -- or more accurately the combinations of totals, modifiers and player distribution etc may not be the total listed.

whatever you do, do it slowly. one or two modifiers at a time and proactively adjust others as needed.

what i would suggest: since you say babip is ~.289, that can go up, which will be a side effect of other adjustments. Overall goal is to increase runs scored. Increase hits modifier a bit. this will increase 1b/2b/3b/hr in proper proportion and league BA/babip. Reduce HR/2b/3b, if your slugging gets out of hand with a ~.005-.007 increase to BA.

Reduce walks, seems high, but up to you on that perception. Being that it is 2050? it really can't be said what "normal" is no matter what, lol. Anyway, if you reduce walks, those PA have to be somethign else of the total PA if not walks. this should help keep the obp around where it currently is while the BA goes up.

Again, if hr/3b/2b are high, this will increase them due to increased # of AB and fewer BB. in this context, they'd be occurring at the same rate, but greater # of ab still causes an increase per year.

So, you can up the babip, increase RS and keep nearly everything else roughly where you have it now - relative to historical simulation comment in OP. BA will probably go a bit higher than a 'smidge' -- also, babip is .299, not .289 unless you changed it?

optimal way... do these things one step at a time. i'd start with the most impactful, like hits = BA, since it impacts everythign else. if necessary, just take a backup and zoom out hands-off and adjust modifiers after you see yearly results to guage the shift for a few years.

if familiar at all with adjusting this stuff, you can try moving more than one dial. there's a chance you don't run into any issues

you may find if you move something up that it goes down. it's not one smoothe curve. it's multiple curves that overlap y ranges, but not x, obviously. either reduce slightly, or increase based on new ~average seen. want 10% more, add 10% to modifiers. each step goes back a bit, but reaches higher... if it dips and not due to a severe drop in talent, assume this is the cause.

heck, some things like balks have 4 or 5 notches at best between .001 and 1.000. talking about ~hundreds out of 180k PA or whatever, so that's how it works.