Can someone sim a full season and post results

krownroyal83 · 10-05-2018, 01:25 PM

I'm on the fence of buying the game for a majority of reasons but mostly i'm wondering how accurate the sim engine is to real life. Can someone sim a season in unemployed sim the season and post the end of the regular season results?

The stats i'm mostly looking for are, Goals, assists, points, ice time, and for goalies, games started, GAA, SV% and shutouts and any other stats someone might want to share. Thanks.

skunt3m · 10-05-2018, 03:30 PM

I just ran a sim, here are the results: https://imgur.com/a/KKVbMuC

Goalie save percentages are still out of whack.

The first image showing scoring over time is from another sim I ran earlier today. Figured I'd add it to show scoring creeping up over time. The highest single season point total in that sim was 121 (Ovechkin, 2018-19). Crosby peaked at 112 in 18-19 and McDavid peaked at 115 in 19-20.

omjo · 10-05-2018, 03:32 PM

I'm assuming you mean league leaders? The stats beside each player (---) are the league leaders from the 17-18 season.

Goals:
CHI Patrick Kane (47) --- Ovechkin (49)
VGK William Karlsson (45) --- Laine (44)
STL Vladimir Tarasenko (44) --- Karlsson (43)

Assists
COL Nathan MacKinnon (64) --- Giroux (68)
NJD Nico Hischier (61) --- Wheeler (68)
CGY Johnny Gaudreau (59) --- McDavid (67)

Points
CHI Patrick Kane (99) --- McDavid (108)
BOS Brad Marchand (99) --- Giroux (102)
NSH Filip Forsberg (97) --- Kucherov (100)

Games Played
LAK Jonathan Quick (74)
WPG Connor Hellebuyck (73)
PIT Matt Murray (73)

Save Percentage
CAR Petr Mrazek (.917) --- Hutton (.931)
NJD Cory Schneider (.914) --- Raanta (.930)
LAK Jonathan Quick (.913) --- Luongo (.929)

Shutouts
WSH Brian Holtby (9) --- Vasilevskiy (8)
PIT Matt Murray (9) --- Rinne (8)
LAK Jonathan Quick (8) --- Hellebuyck (8)

Goals Against Average
CAR Petr Mrazek (2.24)--- Hutton (2.09)
LAK Jonathan Quick (2.31) --- Raanta (2.24)
STL Chad Johnson (2.40) --- Fleury (2.24)

Playoffs
Eastern Conference Final: Capitals vs Penguins
Western Conference Final: Blues vs Wild
Stanley Cup Finals: Wild vs Penguins, Wild win the Cup 4-2

Some notes:
Arizona and Carolina both made the playoffs. The Hurricanes finished first in the league with 108 points. Not going to happen this season.
McDavid only had 84 points in 79 games played. Also not going to happen this season.
The Islanders traded Oliver Wahlstrom and a 7th round pick to the Flames for Brodie and Hathaway.

Besides that one trade, and the fact the Flames made a lot more trades than the rest of the league, the trading engine looks much improved - no heavily lopsided trades. Besides a low point total for McDavid the overall player stats look as what you can expect heading into the season - nobody who shouldn't be in the top 30 for points is there. Sh% is the only noticeable difference.

krownroyal83 · 10-05-2018, 03:43 PM

Thank you i appreciate that. Why is scoring do damn high i wonder. The way the scoring sky rockets after the first season isn't realistic at all. Also some things to note from your sim, goalie stats are out of wack minus shutouts. Also goalies appear to start way too many games. That needs to be fixed.

omjo · 10-05-2018, 04:10 PM

For the goalie stats (besides Sv%), I don't think we should be expecting them to be identical. Remember, I'm comparing this season's projected stats to last season actual stats in the NHL. The top 3 GAA goalies from NHL.com don't take into consideration GP. Of goaltenders who played 50+ games last season, the top 3 GAA are Rinne (2.31), Hellebuyck and Raask (2.36 each).

The high games played is probably due to injuries and how the AI handles goaltenders.

JeffR · 10-05-2018, 04:17 PM

The average GP by the goalie GP leader over the last 10 years, not counting the lockout season, is 72.3.

The save percentage is something we're continuing to work on, it's been improving throughout testing. The main issue seems to be longer-range shots, from the faceoff circles and back. We've been slowly adjusting the factors that contribute to that, but there are complex combinations of factors (player ratings, the engine's shot mechanics, on-ice player locations, tactics, etc.) that have to be considered, so it's not just a case of being able to turn one number down and immediately get the results we want without disrupting other areas.

krownroyal83 · 10-05-2018, 04:20 PM

I hope there is a way to control the scoring level because i don't want to see 10 players a year score 100 points and have players scoring 130 points, this isn't the 80's. I know there is a setting to do so but it defeats the purpose if the point totals are off the charts despite having the goal per game average to modern day totals.

skunt3m · 10-05-2018, 05:06 PM

I ran another and got results more in line with omjo's sim. Overall goals per game were about the same as the first time (6.10 vs 6.05) but the league leaders look more reasonable. Crosby got injured this time (28 points in 27 games).

https://imgur.com/a/zqPHJDR

krownroyal83 · 10-05-2018, 05:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by skunt3m

I ran another and got results more in line with omjo's sim. Overall goals per game were about the same as the first time (6.10 vs 6.05) but the league leaders look more reasonable. Crosby got injured this time (28 points in 27 games).

https://imgur.com/a/zqPHJDR

That's great but it's a problem if the scoring continues to rise every season like i've seen in the sim you posted earlier.

Habsfan18 · 10-05-2018, 05:21 PM

Testing fictional mode, scoring after the first few seasons actually drops down to the 5.2-5.4 range, which I consider a bit too low.

Sebastian Palkowski · 10-05-2018, 05:23 PM

My experience from many long-term simulations is that after a few years it will trend back to about 6.00 in the standard game.

10-05-2018, 01:25 PM	#1
krownroyal83 All Star Reserve Join Date: Feb 2015 Posts: 905	Can someone sim a full season and post results I'm on the fence of buying the game for a majority of reasons but mostly i'm wondering how accurate the sim engine is to real life. Can someone sim a season in unemployed sim the season and post the end of the regular season results? The stats i'm mostly looking for are, Goals, assists, points, ice time, and for goalies, games started, GAA, SV% and shutouts and any other stats someone might want to share. Thanks.

10-05-2018, 03:30 PM	#2
skunt3m Minors (Single A) Join Date: Mar 2013 Posts: 58	I just ran a sim, here are the results: https://imgur.com/a/KKVbMuC Goalie save percentages are still out of whack. The first image showing scoring over time is from another sim I ran earlier today. Figured I'd add it to show scoring creeping up over time. The highest single season point total in that sim was 121 (Ovechkin, 2018-19). Crosby peaked at 112 in 18-19 and McDavid peaked at 115 in 19-20. Last edited by skunt3m; 10-05-2018 at 03:37 PM.

10-05-2018, 03:32 PM	#3
omjo Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 288	I'm assuming you mean league leaders? The stats beside each player (---) are the league leaders from the 17-18 season. Goals: CHI Patrick Kane (47) --- Ovechkin (49) VGK William Karlsson (45) --- Laine (44) STL Vladimir Tarasenko (44) --- Karlsson (43) Assists COL Nathan MacKinnon (64) --- Giroux (68) NJD Nico Hischier (61) --- Wheeler (68) CGY Johnny Gaudreau (59) --- McDavid (67) Points CHI Patrick Kane (99) --- McDavid (108) BOS Brad Marchand (99) --- Giroux (102) NSH Filip Forsberg (97) --- Kucherov (100) Games Played LAK Jonathan Quick (74) WPG Connor Hellebuyck (73) PIT Matt Murray (73) Save Percentage CAR Petr Mrazek (.917) --- Hutton (.931) NJD Cory Schneider (.914) --- Raanta (.930) LAK Jonathan Quick (.913) --- Luongo (.929) Shutouts WSH Brian Holtby (9) --- Vasilevskiy (8) PIT Matt Murray (9) --- Rinne (8) LAK Jonathan Quick (8) --- Hellebuyck (8) Goals Against Average CAR Petr Mrazek (2.24)--- Hutton (2.09) LAK Jonathan Quick (2.31) --- Raanta (2.24) STL Chad Johnson (2.40) --- Fleury (2.24) Playoffs Eastern Conference Final: Capitals vs Penguins Western Conference Final: Blues vs Wild Stanley Cup Finals: Wild vs Penguins, Wild win the Cup 4-2 Some notes: Arizona and Carolina both made the playoffs. The Hurricanes finished first in the league with 108 points. Not going to happen this season. McDavid only had 84 points in 79 games played. Also not going to happen this season. The Islanders traded Oliver Wahlstrom and a 7th round pick to the Flames for Brodie and Hathaway. Besides that one trade, and the fact the Flames made a lot more trades than the rest of the league, the trading engine looks much improved - no heavily lopsided trades. Besides a low point total for McDavid the overall player stats look as what you can expect heading into the season - nobody who shouldn't be in the top 30 for points is there. Sh% is the only noticeable difference. Last edited by omjo; 10-05-2018 at 03:39 PM.

10-05-2018, 03:43 PM	#4
krownroyal83 All Star Reserve Join Date: Feb 2015 Posts: 905	Thank you i appreciate that. Why is scoring do damn high i wonder. The way the scoring sky rockets after the first season isn't realistic at all. Also some things to note from your sim, goalie stats are out of wack minus shutouts. Also goalies appear to start way too many games. That needs to be fixed. Last edited by krownroyal83; 10-05-2018 at 03:47 PM.

10-05-2018, 05:21 PM	#10
Habsfan18 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Canada Posts: 2,238	Testing fictional mode, scoring after the first few seasons actually drops down to the 5.2-5.4 range, which I consider a bit too low. __________________ Tiburcio Suggia - Greatest of all-time? http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...-all-time.html OOTP and FHM Beta Tester

10-05-2018, 04:10 PM	#5
omjo Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 288	For the goalie stats (besides Sv%), I don't think we should be expecting them to be identical. Remember, I'm comparing this season's projected stats to last season actual stats in the NHL. The top 3 GAA goalies from NHL.com don't take into consideration GP. Of goaltenders who played 50+ games last season, the top 3 GAA are Rinne (2.31), Hellebuyck and Raask (2.36 each). The high games played is probably due to injuries and how the AI handles goaltenders.

10-05-2018, 04:17 PM	#6
JeffR FHM Producer Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Kelowna, BC Posts: 16,623	The average GP by the goalie GP leader over the last 10 years, not counting the lockout season, is 72.3. The save percentage is something we're continuing to work on, it's been improving throughout testing. The main issue seems to be longer-range shots, from the faceoff circles and back. We've been slowly adjusting the factors that contribute to that, but there are complex combinations of factors (player ratings, the engine's shot mechanics, on-ice player locations, tactics, etc.) that have to be considered, so it's not just a case of being able to turn one number down and immediately get the results we want without disrupting other areas.

10-05-2018, 04:20 PM	#7
krownroyal83 All Star Reserve Join Date: Feb 2015 Posts: 905	I hope there is a way to control the scoring level because i don't want to see 10 players a year score 100 points and have players scoring 130 points, this isn't the 80's. I know there is a setting to do so but it defeats the purpose if the point totals are off the charts despite having the goal per game average to modern day totals.

10-05-2018, 05:06 PM	#8
skunt3m Minors (Single A) Join Date: Mar 2013 Posts: 58	I ran another and got results more in line with omjo's sim. Overall goals per game were about the same as the first time (6.10 vs 6.05) but the league leaders look more reasonable. Crosby got injured this time (28 points in 27 games). https://imgur.com/a/zqPHJDR

10-05-2018, 05:23 PM	#11
Sebastian Palkowski Developer Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Hamburg, Germany Posts: 5,114	My experience from many long-term simulations is that after a few years it will trend back to about 6.00 in the standard game. __________________ Buy Franchise Hockey Manager 10