Understanding Current/Potential and Ratings

Ripple · 04-18-2013, 04:04 PM

I am having a hard time understanding how to determine the skill level of a player, and interpreting if that player will be able to develop into or remain a good player in the future. When I view a players stats in Commissioner mode the majority by far will show the current stats are equal to the potential. At first glance this should mean a player is already at his peach ability, and will start to decline with age. However as I play the game development reports show this is not the case.

Then there are the rating which are more of a direct comparison between that player and the rest of the league who play that position. This makes sense, except when their current abilities are already equal to their potential.

I should say that I am basing this on what I have seen from doing a fantasy draft, and it could well be that new player starting in the minors will be more in line. I am coming from Football Manager, which may be helping to understand how I am looking at things for those who have played it.
Thanks!

Charlie Hough · 04-18-2013, 04:56 PM

Always consult the manual. It covers the vast majority of questions you may have. Here is the section on overall vs. potential ratings.

Out of the Park Baseball Manual OVR and POT Ratings

Ripple · 04-18-2013, 05:34 PM

I have read through the sections for ratings and development several times. When I view the information when I start a fictional league and start a fantasy draft next to that in the manual, it offers little assistance.

The number of players for which current ability is not equal to potential is a very small %. The result is that there appears to little left to separate one young player in the minor leagues from another, other than the personality traits.

Perhaps if there were stats from previous years available it would be easier to compare and separate one player from the rest, but sadly this is not the case for a fictional league. If lack of solid reliable information is just part of starting with such leagues, so be it. But unless I am missing something it seems to be largely a crap shoot... Which is why I am here asking.

olivertheorem · 04-18-2013, 08:37 PM

It's largely part of starting a fictional league like that. One thing you can do is start a league, sim forward a few years (say...10?), then release all players and have the fantasy draft then. That way, the players all have history.

If you don't want those prior stats in your league's history any more, there's a button somewhere in league setup that wipes the past history completely.

Charlie Hough · 04-18-2013, 11:02 PM

Turn off scouting. That won't give you a perfect view of the players, but I bet your problem is that you're using scouting and you have a bad scout.

I never play with scouting turned on, and I always find that there are some significant differences in players in the initial player pool. I have never seen a player pool where nearly everyone's overall and potential ratings are almost identical.

However, keep in mind that potential is really based on more of a short-term window and can change. So, yes, it can be misleading. But it's intentionally done this way because, in real life, it's not that easy to judge the full potential of players for their entire careers. If it was that simple, then GM's and scouts would not make mistakes as often as they do.

Ripple · 04-19-2013, 01:16 PM

Turning off scouting did make a huge difference. Thanks for the tip!

JZ Temple · 04-19-2013, 04:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Charlie Hough

Turn off scouting. That won't give you a perfect view of the players, but I bet your problem is that you're using scouting and you have a bad scout.

I never play with scouting turned on, and I always find that there are some significant differences in players in the initial player pool. I have never seen a player pool where nearly everyone's overall and potential ratings are almost identical.

In previous editions I never used Scouting, but on a new league in OOTP14 I have been using it and I'm not sure that it's making me enjoy the game more

or just frustrating me

. Will keep plugging away for a while more.

iBrandon · 04-19-2013, 09:47 PM

So what's the advantage/disadvantage to having scouting turned off?

olivertheorem · 04-19-2013, 10:07 PM

No scouting = no fog of war on the ratings. They're always 100% accurate.

iBrandon · 04-19-2013, 10:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by olivertheorem

No scouting = no fog of war on the ratings. They're always 100% accurate.

I see. So if I wanted it to be tougher I leave scouting on?

Charlie Hough · 04-20-2013, 01:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by olivertheorem

No scouting = no fog of war on the ratings. They're always 100% accurate.

Actually, this post is not 100% accurate

When scouting is turned off, the ratings are provided by OSA, which is pretty close to the real ratings but can technically still vary a bit from the true ratings that are in the data. But it's by far the most accurate method.

Neolithic · 04-20-2013, 09:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Charlie Hough

Actually, this post is not 100% accurate

When scouting is turned off, the ratings are provided by OSA, which is pretty close to the real ratings but can technically still vary a bit from the true ratings that are in the data. But it's by far the most accurate method.

Really? That's cool, I would have thought they would have been the real ratings. I like how there is still the slightest hint of Fog of War in it.

iBrandon · 04-28-2013, 10:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Charlie Hough

Actually, this post is not 100% accurate

When scouting is turned off, the ratings are provided by OSA, which is pretty close to the real ratings but can technically still vary a bit from the true ratings that are in the data. But it's by far the most accurate method.

So OSA ratings are best, even if I have a great scout?

If I turn scouting off ill see most realistic ratings?

What does Fog of War mean?

RchW · 04-28-2013, 10:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by iBrandon

So OSA ratings are best, even if I have a great scout?

If I turn scouting off ill see most realistic ratings?

What does Fog of War mean?

If there is no fog, the human player, has a distinct advantage. I found out that going from a ratings scale of 20 to 10 and then 5 made a huge difference. Playing with no ratings is another big step into the fog.

goalieump413 · 04-28-2013, 01:15 PM

But keeping scouting turned on provides one additional set of eyes. Comparing what OSA reports to what your team's director reports can give you a running track record of accuracy.

Say your director consistently over-values young prospects. Check his page to see where in the spectrum he values them (veterans-prospects). You can then make a determination as to whether to replace him or keep him around but work from an average between OSA and your team's director.

Can you trust your scout? Is there some measure of consistency in his evaluations? Do you notice any trends? The best way to find out is to ask for scouting reports on a broad range of players.

I leave scouting on, mostly because it's a feature I would like to have access to. Not that I rely solely on it, but since it's there, I use it.

iBrandon · 04-28-2013, 01:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by goalieump413

I leave scouting on, mostly because it's a feature I would like to have access to. Not that I rely solely on it, but since it's there, I use it.

So what do you look at when drafting guys etc...?

olivertheorem · 04-28-2013, 03:24 PM

I personally use scouting, and while I will sort players based on potential, I will check their skills first to make sure I agree that the player's skill set will make for a useful MLB player, or close to it.

Charlie Hough · 04-28-2013, 03:31 PM

Look at the player's current abilities and potential. Read the scouting reports in their profiles. That can sometimes give you a good hint of their abilities.

Ultimately, you should look at players the way you would in real life. Personally, I emphasize starting pitchers above all else and focus on drafting players who have high current ability with excellent potential where possible. If there aren't players with exceptionally good current ability available, then I start looking at players with few glaring weaknesses and strong potential, and I pay attention to scouting reports for clues.

For example, I will pass on pitchers who only have a couple of pitches, or ignore guys who are horrible fielders, or incredibly slow, or have a terrible eye at the plate, etc. I'd rather have an above average player with no weaknesses than a player who is excellent in one or two categories but can be a liability in others.

Honorable_Pawn · 04-28-2013, 03:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by iBrandon

So OSA ratings are best, even if I have a great scout?

If I turn scouting off ill see most realistic ratings?

What does Fog of War mean?

No!

A great scout is much better than OSA. An average scout is better than OSA.

olivertheorem · 04-28-2013, 04:28 PM

Fog of War = what you see isn't necessarily what you get

04-18-2013, 04:04 PM	#1
Ripple Bat Boy Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 3	Understanding Current/Potential and Ratings I am having a hard time understanding how to determine the skill level of a player, and interpreting if that player will be able to develop into or remain a good player in the future. When I view a players stats in Commissioner mode the majority by far will show the current stats are equal to the potential. At first glance this should mean a player is already at his peach ability, and will start to decline with age. However as I play the game development reports show this is not the case. Then there are the rating which are more of a direct comparison between that player and the rest of the league who play that position. This makes sense, except when their current abilities are already equal to their potential. I should say that I am basing this on what I have seen from doing a fantasy draft, and it could well be that new player starting in the minors will be more in line. I am coming from Football Manager, which may be helping to understand how I am looking at things for those who have played it. Thanks!

04-18-2013, 04:56 PM	#2
Charlie Hough Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 3,625	Always consult the manual. It covers the vast majority of questions you may have. Here is the section on overall vs. potential ratings. Out of the Park Baseball Manual OVR and POT Ratings

04-18-2013, 05:34 PM	#3
Ripple Bat Boy Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 3	I have read through the sections for ratings and development several times. When I view the information when I start a fictional league and start a fantasy draft next to that in the manual, it offers little assistance. The number of players for which current ability is not equal to potential is a very small %. The result is that there appears to little left to separate one young player in the minor leagues from another, other than the personality traits. Perhaps if there were stats from previous years available it would be easier to compare and separate one player from the rest, but sadly this is not the case for a fictional league. If lack of solid reliable information is just part of starting with such leagues, so be it. But unless I am missing something it seems to be largely a crap shoot... Which is why I am here asking.

04-18-2013, 08:37 PM	#4
olivertheorem All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 1,919	It's largely part of starting a fictional league like that. One thing you can do is start a league, sim forward a few years (say...10?), then release all players and have the fantasy draft then. That way, the players all have history. If you don't want those prior stats in your league's history any more, there's a button somewhere in league setup that wipes the past history completely.

04-18-2013, 11:02 PM	#5
Charlie Hough Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 3,625	Turn off scouting. That won't give you a perfect view of the players, but I bet your problem is that you're using scouting and you have a bad scout. I never play with scouting turned on, and I always find that there are some significant differences in players in the initial player pool. I have never seen a player pool where nearly everyone's overall and potential ratings are almost identical. However, keep in mind that potential is really based on more of a short-term window and can change. So, yes, it can be misleading. But it's intentionally done this way because, in real life, it's not that easy to judge the full potential of players for their entire careers. If it was that simple, then GM's and scouts would not make mistakes as often as they do.

04-19-2013, 01:16 PM	#6
Ripple Bat Boy Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 3	Turning off scouting did make a huge difference. Thanks for the tip!

04-19-2013, 09:47 PM	#8
iBrandon Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Jan 2011 Location: Waco, TX Posts: 214	So what's the advantage/disadvantage to having scouting turned off?

04-19-2013, 10:07 PM	#9
olivertheorem All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 1,919	No scouting = no fog of war on the ratings. They're always 100% accurate.

04-28-2013, 01:15 PM	#15
goalieump413 All Star Reserve Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 765	But keeping scouting turned on provides one additional set of eyes. Comparing what OSA reports to what your team's director reports can give you a running track record of accuracy. Say your director consistently over-values young prospects. Check his page to see where in the spectrum he values them (veterans-prospects). You can then make a determination as to whether to replace him or keep him around but work from an average between OSA and your team's director. Can you trust your scout? Is there some measure of consistency in his evaluations? Do you notice any trends? The best way to find out is to ask for scouting reports on a broad range of players. I leave scouting on, mostly because it's a feature I would like to have access to. Not that I rely solely on it, but since it's there, I use it.

04-28-2013, 03:24 PM	#17
olivertheorem All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 1,919	I personally use scouting, and while I will sort players based on potential, I will check their skills first to make sure I agree that the player's skill set will make for a useful MLB player, or close to it.

04-28-2013, 03:31 PM	#18
Charlie Hough Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 3,625	Look at the player's current abilities and potential. Read the scouting reports in their profiles. That can sometimes give you a good hint of their abilities. Ultimately, you should look at players the way you would in real life. Personally, I emphasize starting pitchers above all else and focus on drafting players who have high current ability with excellent potential where possible. If there aren't players with exceptionally good current ability available, then I start looking at players with few glaring weaknesses and strong potential, and I pay attention to scouting reports for clues. For example, I will pass on pitchers who only have a couple of pitches, or ignore guys who are horrible fielders, or incredibly slow, or have a terrible eye at the plate, etc. I'd rather have an above average player with no weaknesses than a player who is excellent in one or two categories but can be a liability in others.

04-28-2013, 04:28 PM	#20
olivertheorem All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 1,919	Fog of War = what you see isn't necessarily what you get