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03-08-2019, 02:24 PM | #21 | |
Minors (Double A)
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That might be true. The things you mention are a factor, I just don't know how to quantify how much of a factor it should be. I suppose the best way to test this would be to create an OOTP league where every team is identical to every other team, and see how far the variance stretches between identical players. In that case, we should see low variance over the course of a season, where a player hitting .050 above another identical player would be extremely rare. If it looks closer to how Perfect Team plays, its likely there is some kind of extra mechanic at play.
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03-08-2019, 02:37 PM | #22 | |
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03-08-2019, 07:29 PM | #23 | |
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Why are we assuming that a batting average of .000 is not a statistically significant outcome for these cards also? I believe that it would be as much an outlier as a .450 batting average, at least for the types of cards we're focusing on for the purposes of this discussion. And, since with this belief there is room for the lower performance component to shift closer to zero, I further believe that the entire bell curve of possible outcomes would shift left, not just the upper limits. Basically, I disagree with your point that players are constricted to a smaller range of possibilities while agreeing that they are restricted to a lower range.
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03-08-2019, 07:56 PM | #24 |
Bat Boy
Join Date: Jan 2019
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But can software really generate truly random numbers, and how does that factor into any of this?
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03-08-2019, 09:19 PM | #25 | |
Minors (Double A)
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03-08-2019, 09:29 PM | #26 |
Minors (Double A)
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I know the devs said there is no individual player modifier or whatever at the start of the season - and that may be the case. But you have to remember, and this is something that is accepted - in a PT season if you look at the combined end of season total league stats, they tend to fall in a similar range. Like there will be X total HRs in a season. There average ERA and AVG will be Y and Z. And so on. There have been multiple posts about this. I dont think there is too much dispute about this, since it applies to OOTP single player as well.
So the game generates a baseline of total stats for an entire league season. And then sometimes Mike Trout or whoever has what appears to be an awful season with a seemingly entire year slump. While this Mike Trout might not have a start of the season dice roll, like the devs said, is it not possible that the game sort of adjusts somehow to keep this mike trout having his awful season for most/all of the year in order to stay aligned with the overall league totals that the league has to stay in line with? I dont know if the league totals are generated at the start of the season or in real time or what. But just thinking about it, it would seem that a figure or narrow range is set at the start of the season and thus what plays out over a season is a result of that. So if you are following what im saying, its possible that the game somehow aligns/calculates a particular mike trout (or whoever) to have an awful season in order to stay consistent with the leaguewide totals by end of season. Some players MUST have awful seasons in order to keep the leaguewide totals aligned to where they are supposed to be. |
03-09-2019, 03:00 AM | #27 | |
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I believe what you say to be pretty accurate. In all likelihood, the engine runs checks every so often to see where it stands as far as each stats vs league totals and can probably adjust on the fly. It's a fairly common technique used in other game types, namely rpgs (Wizardry clones come to mind where the engine will run a roll and make checks so your characters don't fall too far behind on the hit points threshold, but that's a different genre). That's why I doubt the only factor at play is Player A's attributes vs Player B's attributes. Yes, their ratings are mighty important, but as you mentioned, league totals need to be met (probably within a certain %variance). Since the league totals are the "hard set rule", the engine can't run solely on pure random numbers...the results still have randomness, but within a structured entity. If it was only running on pure randomness, I'm guessing we would have seen a lot more weird stuff than we have so far, because true randomness is unpredictable. That does not mean things are scripted from the get go and I don't believe that at all. |
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03-09-2019, 08:41 AM | #28 | |
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03-09-2019, 10:34 AM | #29 |
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99 Kershaw is a very underwhelming card in the grand scheme of PT. Sorry but I would dump him and get a low 90 starter than has some movement.
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03-09-2019, 12:59 PM | #30 | |
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Yep good point, I always forget about the league totals/modifiers. |
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03-09-2019, 06:15 PM | #31 | |
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Look, I've had Mike Trout (since he was mentioned in this and other posts) for almost 5 seasons now - starting in Bronze and currently (134 games) in Gold. His WAR has been 11.0, 8.6, 10.7, 8.9, and 6.5. His OBP .447, .408, .454, .423, and .430. His SLG .607, .512, .566, .517, and .468. He's been a model of consistency for me. Yet, others have stated they can't understand how he can sometimes put up bad numbers. That tells me that next season, he might have a crap year for me - and I don't see anything wrong with that. If nothing else, my experience with him shows consistency IS possible. Last edited by HRBaker; 03-09-2019 at 07:06 PM. |
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03-09-2019, 06:46 PM | #32 |
Minors (Double A)
Join Date: Dec 2018
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Single season simulation
30 identical players - player development, injuries, etc. disabled - dh enabled in nl |
03-09-2019, 07:29 PM | #33 |
Hall Of Famer
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Location: Indiana
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What season was simulated... 2018 MLB? The spread in BABIP is pretty surprising.
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03-09-2019, 10:30 PM | #34 | |
Minors (Double A)
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Still a pretty crazy spread...
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03-10-2019, 10:10 AM | #35 | |
Minors (Double A)
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So, in this hypothetical mike trout example we keep coming back to - if Mike Trout starts the season off poorly - the only way he can improve over the course of the season is if another player declines (thus keeping the equilibrium/overall annual totals in line with where they need to be). So in essence, Mike Trout's hypothetical improvement is not necessarily based on Mike Trout's ratings, but rather on the performance of other players in the league. Or perhaps all these factors work together. But it seems theoretically IMPOSSIBLE for Mike Trout's ratings alone to improve his performance, because some other player HAS to decline in performance elsewhere. If other players performance doesnt decline, then mike trout's cant improve. |
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03-10-2019, 10:28 AM | #36 | |
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03-10-2019, 11:13 AM | #37 | |
Minors (Double A)
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What would be easier to adjust to reach a desired outcome? 10 variables simultaneously or 750 variables simultaneously? Ultimately, we will probably never know unless the developers decide to provide some insight. |
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03-10-2019, 11:16 AM | #38 | |
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And when it comes to what is easier, I'm sure it doesn't matter because it's computers making the calculations, not people with calculators and dice. Developers have given insight and have denied everything you're suggesting. No one player is ever chosen to be better or worse. No player has a hidden hot or cold streak rating. No player has a hidden clutch rating. Last edited by zrog2000; 03-10-2019 at 11:17 AM. |
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03-10-2019, 11:55 AM | #39 | |
Minors (Double A)
Join Date: Jan 2019
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Im not suggesting any of those things you mentioned are coded into the game, im just saying the game itself HAS to choose people to keep down/have bad years/etc, if there are other players having good years/hot/whatever. There is literally no other choice because annual league totals are relatively static. That doesnt mean its an intentional choice/dice roll for X player/whatever, it just means its a natural order of things because the annual totals are set in stone, so to speak, and thus all simulation has to align with that. |
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03-10-2019, 11:59 AM | #40 | |
Minors (Triple A)
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