The Post Season in OOTP

[Dyzalot]

The only thing I can say with any kind of authority when it comes to the playoffs in OOTP, teams down 3-0 in seven games series win at a much higher rate than what is historically accurate. This is either because even in MLB history, the sample size we have is too small and so OOTP actually models it more correctly or, there is more to overcome for a team being down 3-0 than OOTP can properly model. It is possible that being down 3-0 is one of the few spots where morale or momentum plays such a large part of the equation that OOTP undervalues it. Either way, in terms of teams winning or losing series compared to real life, that's the only obvious discrepancy I've seen.

[krownroyal83]

Originally Posted by Dyzalot

The only thing I can say with any kind of authority when it comes to the playoffs in OOTP, teams down 3-0 in seven games series win at a much higher rate than what is historically accurate. This is either because even in MLB history, the sample size we have is too small and so OOTP actually models it more correctly or, there is more to overcome for a team being down 3-0 than OOTP can properly model. It is possible that being down 3-0 is one of the few spots where morale or momentum plays such a large part of the equation that OOTP undervalues it. Either way, in terms of teams winning or losing series compared to real life, that's the only obvious discrepancy I've seen.

I mean I kind of agree with you but i feel we tend to focus on the times we see a team come back from being down 3-0 and forget all the times the team that goes up 3-0 wins. Also unlike real life there are thousands of rounds of playoffs being played by OOTP players so i can bet most of us can recall a team or teams coming back from being down 3-0. I mean you might very will be right I just don't know where we could find the data to figure it out.

[kevrock]

I think OOTP gets this pretty right, actually. We’ve had crazy streaks in our online league, including a streak a few versions ago where 4s kept upsetting 1s. Now the favorites win more often than not. Roster construction seems to be rewarded, and weaknesses exposed. The hot team sometimes goes on a run.

[kevrock]

Originally Posted by Dyzalot

The only thing I can say with any kind of authority when it comes to the playoffs in OOTP, teams down 3-0 in seven games series win at a much higher rate than what is historically accurate. This is either because even in MLB history, the sample size we have is too small and so OOTP actually models it more correctly or, there is more to overcome for a team being down 3-0 than OOTP can properly model. It is possible that being down 3-0 is one of the few spots where morale or momentum plays such a large part of the equation that OOTP undervalues it. Either way, in terms of teams winning or losing series compared to real life, that's the only obvious discrepancy I've seen.

Conversely, I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a 0-3 team come back in dozens upon dozens of years.

[Dyzalot]

Originally Posted by krownroyal83

I mean I kind of agree with you but i feel we tend to focus on the times we see a team come back from being down 3-0 and forget all the times the team that goes up 3-0 wins. Also unlike real life there are thousands of rounds of playoffs being played by OOTP players so i can bet most of us can recall a team or teams coming back from being down 3-0. I mean you might very will be right I just don't know where we could find the data to figure it out.

Well since it has happened only once in MLB history, I think concentrating on the times it happens is appropriate. And it happens at a much higher frequency than MLB. However, statistically one would expect it to happen somewhere around once every 16 times if we assume the teams to be about even. So again, either the sample size in MLB has been too small to give us an accurate frequency or something isn't modeled in OOTP that prevents MLB teams from accomplishing this more often.

[Dyzalot]

Originally Posted by kevrock

Conversely, I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a 0-3 team come back in dozens upon dozens of years.

In OOTP? I've seen it at least four or five times over the past few years. Off the top of my head, the frequency seems to be closer to the "1 in 16" that I referenced in my earlier post than the "one in whatever" it is that has happened in MLB history.

Also it seems to me that teams down 3-0 are much more likely to extend the series in OOTP than MLB. 28 of the 33 series in MLB history (excluding last few seasons) were sweeps. That seems statistically strange so again, it is possible that the sample size in MLB is just too low to draw many conclusions. However I am quite sure that the amount of teams in OOTP to start 0-3 in a series and then win game four is going to be a number close to 50%.

The real story is the distribution:

Series that made it to a fifth game
Five of 33

Series that made it to a sixth game
Three of 33

Series that made it to a seventh game
One of 33

That's kind of bizarre. If we use the flawed 45-percent model, we still should have had about 14 series that made it to a fifth game. About six or seven of them should have made it to a sixth game. About three of them should have made it to a seventh game. Instead, 28 series out of 33 ended in a four-game sweep, as if the other team just ... let go.

https://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2014/10...eason-baseball

[Anyone]

1) MLB's sample size is too low, as you said.

2) There probably is a big morale effect in real life to being down 3-0 and not believing you have a chance that is well beyond the extent to which OOTP includes morale factors. In addition, OOTP probably doesn't even try to directly impose a morale penalty for being down 3-0 (and that's probably for the best given no one knows how big it should be).

[kevrock]

Originally Posted by Dyzalot

In OOTP? I've seen it at least four or five times over the past few years. Off the top of my head, the frequency seems to be closer to the "1 in 16" that I referenced in my earlier post than the "one in whatever" it is that has happened in MLB history.

Also it seems to me that teams down 3-0 are much more likely to extend the series in OOTP than MLB. 28 of the 33 series in MLB history (excluding last few seasons) were sweeps. That seems statistically strange so again, it is possible that the sample size in MLB is just too low to draw many conclusions. However I am quite sure that the amount of teams in OOTP to start 0-3 in a series and then win game four is going to be a number close to 50%.



https://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2014/10...eason-baseball

Yes, I don't think I've seen that happen yet. I believe you, I just haven't seen that personally.

Interesting stats in your post!

[Dyzalot]

Here is something that happens in the postseason in OOTP that you never see in MLB. This is Game #2 of the Divisional Series with Detroit winning the first game. There is a day off after this game to travel to Detroit for game #3. Why is this pitcher still pitching? Why was he left in when he originally gave up the two run homer after relieving the struggling starter? What is the AI saving the bullpen for? Yes being down six sucks but there is still a lot of game left and being down 2-0 in a five game elimination series seems pretty bad too. Wouldn't every MLB manager be willing to exhaust the entire bullpen in this game to try and stay in it, especially knowing a day off is next? This is a place where I see the AI really fail in strategy, is understanding the urgency of winning a specific game in the context of a playoff series.

[Dyzalot]

It gets even worse. He manages to get the third out in the top of the 5th. Then Cleveland pushes a run across in the bottom of the inning to close the gap to five runs. Then the AI decides it is still time to just give up I guess? And try to kill a guy's arm in the process...

[Anyone]

Originally Posted by Dyzalot

This is a place where I see the AI really fail in strategy, is understanding the urgency of winning a specific game in the context of a playoff series.

I agree. I don't think they have enough different tactics for playoff games relative to regular season games. It may use exactly the same logic as in the regular season as to when to pull a pitcher, which is bad strategy for the postseason.

[24Rocks]

Originally Posted by Anyone

I agree. I don't think they have enough different tactics for playoff games relative to regular season games. It may use exactly the same logic as in the regular season as to when to pull a pitcher, which is bad strategy for the postseason.

I very much agree with this, tho they are some good things like how they do use the closer for 2 innings for saves, I have also seen some great PH and good pulling of SP+ pen usage but in blowouts and lopsided games like above the Playoff AI is just missing something.

[itsmb8]

Originally Posted by 24Rocks

I very much agree with this, tho they are some good things like how they do use the closer for 2 innings for saves, I have also seen some great PH and good pulling of SP+ pen usage but in blowouts and lopsided games like above the Playoff AI is just missing something.

Is it possible that AI strategy changes should be made in the settings page when playoff time rolls around?

Similar to the theory of setting the trade frequency setting depending on what month it is.

[Anyone]

Originally Posted by itsmb8

Is it possible that AI strategy changes should be made in the settings page when playoff time rolls around?

Similar to the theory of setting the trade frequency setting depending on what month it is.

I don't think it's possible with that to get to realistic playoff usage. The idea with pitcher usage, which is the most obvious, is you use your best pitchers more. "Tomorrow" matters less, and in an elimination game it doesn't matter at all. If the above had been avoided by just setting hooking relievers to as often as it can be set to, it would also lead to hooking closers faster, too.

[24Rocks]

Originally Posted by Anyone

I don't think it's possible with that to get to realistic playoff usage. The idea with pitcher usage, which is the most obvious, is you use your best pitchers more. "Tomorrow" matters less, and in an elimination game it doesn't matter at all. If the above had been avoided by just setting hooking relievers to as often as it can be set to, it would also lead to hooking closers faster, too.

But the good to come of that is the AI by pulling the closer doesn’t allow the comeback and wins the game. To the regard during season I have my AI hook settings at Defult for SP and -2 for MR during postseason I set it to -2/-3 i also change PH setting to very often. I have also contemplated changing stamina level from low to very low for playoffs.

At the same time you’re not gonna get perfect realism using that and I understand that kind of sucks plus the AI doesn’t really understand how to platoon effectively Especially in the playoffs.