1920 Texas League---Home runs. - Page 2

swampdragon · 04-20-2016, 02:18 PM

The good news is that this should calm down at least a little bit when the PCL players have a PCL to play in in 1921.

David Watts · 04-20-2016, 02:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by swampdragon

The good news is that this should calm down at least a little bit when the PCL players have a PCL to play in in 1921.

Looking at the 1921 Pacific Coast league, I came across one of the guys that hit 30+ homers in my 1920 Texas League. I said Powell earlier, but instead it's Jim Poole. In real life 1920, he played a total of 2 games for San Antonio, 7 at bats. He also played for Richmond that year. Now in 1921, he played for Portland in the PCL. Hit 20 bombs in 186 games that season. Followed by 22 in 22, 27 in 23 and 38 in 24. This dude played 3 seasons in the bigs, but stuck around till 1946(age 51) in the minors. 257career minor league home runs. In 1930 he hit 50 for Nashville(A) at the age of 35.

I should mention that I'm using 3 year recalc as well.

swampdragon · 04-20-2016, 03:28 PM

The equivalent of a 20 home run season one level up will probably give you 30+ in the Texas League, and he went on to show that he was that kind of player. I think anything that bleeds 1921 stats into the 1920 ratings is going to cause this effect, including 3 year recalc, but if you go into 1921 by putting the PCL players back in the PCL and combine that with the natural increase in home runs which the Texas League will have in 1921, I think this distortion will be a one time anomaly.

David Watts · 04-20-2016, 03:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by swampdragon

The equivalent of a 20 home run season one level up will probably give you 30+ in the Texas League, and he went on to show that he was that kind of player. I think anything that bleeds 1921 stats into the 1920 ratings is going to cause this effect, including 3 year recalc, but if you go into 1921 by putting the PCL players back in the PCL and combine that with the natural increase in home runs which the Texas League will have in 1921, I think this distortion will be a one time anomaly.

Yup. Thanks for getting me straightened out on this. I'm loving the big league side of things so much that I really didn't want to scrap the league. The Cardinals and the Reds are fighting to the very end to secure the NL title. While the White Sox are a few games from clinching the AL. Chicago and New York were neck and neck until midway through August. Then the White Sox pulled away. Meanwhile the Browns and Urban Shocker have caught the Yankees and moved into second place. Funny thing is, the Brooklyn Robins are the worst team in the league. Strange because they won the NL in 20.

swampdragon · 04-20-2016, 03:58 PM

I know. I debated a long time on what year to start and went back and forth among 1919, 1920, and 1921. I finally decided that I don't want to miss the 1919 and 1920 major league seasons, not to mention the Texas League champion 1919 Shreveport Gassers. (They may never be competitive with the Fort Worth and Houston teams again.)

That 1920 Dodgers pennant always seemed a little strange mixed in between the good Reds team and the budding Giant dynasty. It may be the major league season I'm most looking forward to.

David Watts · 04-20-2016, 04:40 PM

I'm using free agency instead of the reserve clause. Babe Ruth will be a free agent at seasons end. Going to be interesting to see where he ends up.

David Watts · 04-20-2016, 06:46 PM

Here is the list of home run leaders from the 1920 Texas League
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NoOne · 04-20-2016, 08:18 PM

i don't know if any mentioned this... too much to read for a simple response.

HR can swing about 10% when it is ~4100/year while maintaining the same LTM and LT for homeruns (and AB if that needs to be said). not sure if that % stays consistent. i only mention the 4100 to give reference in case the 10% does change due to much smaller or much larger hr totals.

as long as your results are within 10% of your target, you won't be able to tell if somethign is wrong. more data will be needed from different years with different league talent levels etc etc. if it is outside that margin, you likely need to adjust the LTM - but still need more data to know how much to change it.

this is not to be applied during an era change or anytime after a drastic change in a league - like league evolution. only apply this to normal year-to-year stuff.

swampdragon · 04-21-2016, 12:59 AM

Galveston has a bunch of ringers. In real life they finished last. There are a few real Texas Leaguers in the group. I see Leslie and Jackson on the list. The affiliated teams didn't sign the ringers. Just the independent teams. You should be back near normal for 1921. You'll always be a little high using three year recalc, because offense and power increased through the decade until the year of the hitter in 1930.

David Watts · 04-22-2016, 08:03 AM

What a difference a year makes. I'm currently somewhere around May 6th 1921. Took a look at the Texas League to see what home runs look like this season. 30+ games into the season and the league has hit a grand total of 8 home runs.

swampdragon · 04-22-2016, 11:56 AM

Did you check that Texas League box for adjusting league totals for historical accuracy? That's what this sounds like.

David Watts · 04-22-2016, 12:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by swampdragon

Did you check that Texas League box for adjusting league totals for historical accuracy? That's what this sounds like.

No, Spritze said not to check that box, so I didn't do so.

swampdragon · 04-22-2016, 01:09 PM

Interesting. I don't really have an explanation. You should have returned to historical levels. How many does Kraft have?

Home runs were way up in the Texas League in 1921, but that was dependent on a small number of hitters. Three players hit over 20 home runs, Hack Eibel (35), Clarence Kraft (31), and Cecil Coombs (30). Then it's down to 19 and in single digits by the time you get out of the top ten. Those top three players likely outhomered several teams. If they didn't find their way into your league, you won't have as many. And they're really too good to stay in the Texas League if you don't make them.

04-20-2016, 02:18 PM	#21
swampdragon Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2002 Location: The Lonely Mountain Posts: 2,509	The good news is that this should calm down at least a little bit when the PCL players have a PCL to play in in 1921. __________________ “Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies." -- C.S. Lewis

04-20-2016, 03:28 PM	#23
swampdragon Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2002 Location: The Lonely Mountain Posts: 2,509	The equivalent of a 20 home run season one level up will probably give you 30+ in the Texas League, and he went on to show that he was that kind of player. I think anything that bleeds 1921 stats into the 1920 ratings is going to cause this effect, including 3 year recalc, but if you go into 1921 by putting the PCL players back in the PCL and combine that with the natural increase in home runs which the Texas League will have in 1921, I think this distortion will be a one time anomaly. __________________ “Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies." -- C.S. Lewis

04-20-2016, 03:58 PM	#25
swampdragon Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2002 Location: The Lonely Mountain Posts: 2,509	I know. I debated a long time on what year to start and went back and forth among 1919, 1920, and 1921. I finally decided that I don't want to miss the 1919 and 1920 major league seasons, not to mention the Texas League champion 1919 Shreveport Gassers. (They may never be competitive with the Fort Worth and Houston teams again.) That 1920 Dodgers pennant always seemed a little strange mixed in between the good Reds team and the budding Giant dynasty. It may be the major league season I'm most looking forward to. __________________ “Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies." -- C.S. Lewis Last edited by swampdragon; 04-20-2016 at 04:00 PM.

04-21-2016, 12:59 AM	#29
swampdragon Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2002 Location: The Lonely Mountain Posts: 2,509	Galveston has a bunch of ringers. In real life they finished last. There are a few real Texas Leaguers in the group. I see Leslie and Jackson on the list. The affiliated teams didn't sign the ringers. Just the independent teams. You should be back near normal for 1921. You'll always be a little high using three year recalc, because offense and power increased through the decade until the year of the hitter in 1930. __________________ “Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies." -- C.S. Lewis

04-22-2016, 11:56 AM	#31
swampdragon Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2002 Location: The Lonely Mountain Posts: 2,509	Did you check that Texas League box for adjusting league totals for historical accuracy? That's what this sounds like. __________________ “Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies." -- C.S. Lewis

04-20-2016, 04:40 PM	#26
David Watts Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Looking for a place called Leehofooks Posts: 8,880	I'm using free agency instead of the reserve clause. Babe Ruth will be a free agent at seasons end. Going to be interesting to see where he ends up.

04-20-2016, 06:46 PM	#27
David Watts Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Looking for a place called Leehofooks Posts: 8,880	Here is the list of home run leaders from the 1920 Texas League

04-20-2016, 08:18 PM	#28
NoOne Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,167	i don't know if any mentioned this... too much to read for a simple response. HR can swing about 10% when it is ~4100/year while maintaining the same LTM and LT for homeruns (and AB if that needs to be said). not sure if that % stays consistent. i only mention the 4100 to give reference in case the 10% does change due to much smaller or much larger hr totals. as long as your results are within 10% of your target, you won't be able to tell if somethign is wrong. more data will be needed from different years with different league talent levels etc etc. if it is outside that margin, you likely need to adjust the LTM - but still need more data to know how much to change it. this is not to be applied during an era change or anytime after a drastic change in a league - like league evolution. only apply this to normal year-to-year stuff.

04-22-2016, 08:03 AM	#30
David Watts Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Looking for a place called Leehofooks Posts: 8,880	What a difference a year makes. I'm currently somewhere around May 6th 1921. Took a look at the Texas League to see what home runs look like this season. 30+ games into the season and the league has hit a grand total of 8 home runs.

04-22-2016, 01:09 PM	#33
swampdragon Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2002 Location: The Lonely Mountain Posts: 2,509	Interesting. I don't really have an explanation. You should have returned to historical levels. How many does Kraft have? Home runs were way up in the Texas League in 1921, but that was dependent on a small number of hitters. Three players hit over 20 home runs, Hack Eibel (35), Clarence Kraft (31), and Cecil Coombs (30). Then it's down to 19 and in single digits by the time you get out of the top ten. Those top three players likely outhomered several teams. If they didn't find their way into your league, you won't have as many. And they're really too good to stay in the Texas League if you don't make them. __________________ “Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies." -- C.S. Lewis Last edited by swampdragon; 04-22-2016 at 01:25 PM.