Rutschman - why the mania? - Page 2

BigRed75 · 08-18-2019, 10:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Orcin

This is how it works when your team is worth more than 10 million points. Otherwise, I still think I am right.

Which is exactly what ubernoob is saying. So you're both right.

Nero · 08-19-2019, 06:02 PM

I think I'd take Pudge over Rutschman

waittilnextyear · 08-19-2019, 06:09 PM

I still like Rutschman as 2nd place in the catcher world. That 98 Pudge Rodriguez does add a little more depth at the top--a tossup between it and 100 Johnny Bench imo, with maybe Bench being slightly ahead (OBP).

The switch-hitter thing is just too sweet for me to discount. Plus, most of Pudge's best work will be done against LHPs and there aren't too many of those he'll face.

I also think Rutschman's higher OBP more than counteracts Pudge's edge on defense.

You can't really go wrong with 100 Josh Gibson, 100 Rutschman, 100 Bench, 98 Rodriguez, or 99 Berra. The 100 Mickey Cochrane is an offensive juggernaut as well.

X3NEIZE · 08-20-2019, 05:09 PM

I would rank him above 98 Pudge and 100 Gibson as the three best catchers all-around.

mcdog512 · 09-18-2019, 10:43 AM

Well, you guys convinced me. After re-evaluating things and starting to appreciate he's a switch hitter and his numbers, I took the plunge and picked him up to replace Bench.

Orcin · 09-18-2019, 11:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mcdog512

Well, you guys convinced me. After re-evaluating things and starting to appreciate he's a switch hitter and his numbers, I took the plunge and picked him up to replace Bench.

I have also looked at this card over the past few weeks as the price has fallen. I will be curious to see what you think of his defense. That's what has stopped me from buying at the 150-160K price point so far.

CrazyWR · 09-18-2019, 11:14 AM

Whats wrong with his defense?

Orcin · 09-18-2019, 11:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrazyWR

Whats wrong with his defense?

There are several guys that have a lot better ratings, especially the 70 arm. He's no Bench or Pudge to be sure. I just wonder how the ratings translate to actual play. Maybe the difference in real performance is negligible.

mcdog512 · 09-18-2019, 11:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Orcin

There are several guys that have a lot better ratings, especially the 70 arm. He's no Bench or Pudge to be sure. I just wonder how the ratings translate to actual play. Maybe the difference in real performance is negligible.

I mainly worry about catcher ability and he holds up there. I'll keep an eye on the stealing to see if that arm hurts me.

CrazyWR · 09-18-2019, 11:39 AM

Do you see enough baserunning in perfect leagues for catcher arm to matter?

moalkha · 09-18-2019, 12:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrazyWR

Do you see enough baserunning in perfect leagues for catcher arm to matter?

That's the point.

My Josh Gibson (arm 71) has a 30.8% CS in 1204 Games starded. The grand total is 362 caught runners which equates to an average of 1 steal attempt per game.

Tim McCarver (arm 80) has been with me a bit longer and he has a 30.6% CS in 1636 games stated. The grand total is 415 caught runners which equates to 0,84 steal attempt per game.

It looks like against a catcher with a weaker arm steal attempts go up a little bit, but the total number is still negligibile. As a disclaimer, all stats are for perfect leagues only.

Orcin · 09-18-2019, 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moalkha

That's the point.

My Josh Gibson (arm 71) has a 30.8% CS in 1204 Games starded. The grand total is 362 caught runners which equates to an average of 1 steal attempt per game.

Tim McCarver (arm 80) has been with me a bit longer and he has a 30.6% CS in 1636 games stated. The grand total is 415 caught runners which equates to 0,84 steal attempt per game.

My Tim McCarver (arm 81) has 32% CS in 1825 GS, 449 CS or 0.78 attempts per game.

My Yadier Molina (arm 91) has 36% CS in 1226 GS, 286 CS or 0.65 attempts per game.

So they appear to run less on Molina. That's a pretty big sample size so I might conclude that I am seeing less attempts because I have good catcher arms.

Of course, some of this depends upon the hold rating of your pitchers. Most of my staff has hold ratings better than 50%, the only one that does not is perfect Cy at 34%.

mcdog512 · 09-18-2019, 12:19 PM

My hold ratings are in order of starter from 1-5:
69
64
63
14
63

So Pete Alexander (14) may get run on but it's not Adley's arm is awful, I just got him so we'll have to see.

Orcin · 09-18-2019, 12:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mcdog512

So Pete Alexander (14) may get run on but it's not Adley's arm is awful, I just got him so we'll have to see.

Yeah, his arm is as good as Josh Gibson's and the results above for Gibson are pretty good. It looks like he could more than offset any minor defensive weakness compared to my catchers with a better bat. Keep us posted while I save up some more points.

chazzycat · 09-18-2019, 02:04 PM

I have a different take on this. The key thing to remember is that the break-even point for stolen bases to be worth it, is about 75%.

That means for any catcher with a CS rate above 25%, you don't actually want to discourage base-stealers. You want them to keep running. Therefore, high catcher arm ratings are actually counter-productive.

Matt Arnold · 09-18-2019, 03:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chazzycat

I have a different take on this. The key thing to remember is that the break-even point for stolen bases to be worth it, is about 75%.

That means for any catcher with a CS rate above 25%, you don't actually want to discourage base-stealers. You want them to keep running. Therefore, high catcher arm ratings are actually counter-productive.

While that's true to an extent, the extra people who run tend to have higher rates,so it's not really a 1:1 tradeoff. For example, if I understood Orcin's stats from above, doing some math on them, it ends up being that McCarver ends up yielding about 10 extra steals and 1 extra CS per 100 games (10.8 and 1.27) over Molina. So given those rates, you'd obviously take Molina's numbers, since the extra few pct in throwing out runners more than "compensates" for the lower rate people are stealing at.

chazzycat · 09-18-2019, 04:43 PM

Sure, if you assume Orcin's stats are representative of how the game works. But that seems like cherry picking the data. There is a comment right above Orcins where Gibson & McCarver showed basically no difference at all in CS% despite the 10 points of arm difference. Why are we ignoring that data in favor of Orcins? Sample sizes are similar, it seems just as legit to me...

nickwatic · 09-18-2019, 04:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mcdog512

Somebody on This week in Perfect Team chat said something about how great the card was.....I guess I'm not seeing it as elite. If I was a FTP player I'd be ecstatic to pull it but if I'm a pay perfect league player he's not top rate.

I spent real money on 350K PP yesterday to buy Ed Walsh. My starting catcher is Mike Lava and my backup is live Posey. I win 95+ every year. I think I'll be okay

mcdog512 · 09-18-2019, 04:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nickwatic

I spent real money on 350K PP yesterday to buy Ed Walsh. My starting catcher is Mike Lava and my backup is live Posey. I win 95+ every year. I think I'll be okay

I have 4 perfect titles so I'm also hanging in there.

chazzycat · 09-18-2019, 05:13 PM

Here's my PL data to add:

Posey - 1087 games - 70 arm rating - 34.7% CS - .22 CS per game
Burgess - 1125 games - 49 arm rating - 35.2% CS - .26 CS per game

Burgess's lower arm rating is enticing more runners to go, but they are getting thrown out at roughly the same rate despite over 20 points of arm rating. So overall it's Burgess for the win.

Not saying everyone will experience this, but two thousand games is quite a lot of waiting around for a supposed advantage to manifest.

08-19-2019, 06:09 PM	#23
waittilnextyear All Star Starter Join Date: Jan 2016 Posts: 1,272	I still like Rutschman as 2nd place in the catcher world. That 98 Pudge Rodriguez does add a little more depth at the top--a tossup between it and 100 Johnny Bench imo, with maybe Bench being slightly ahead (OBP). The switch-hitter thing is just too sweet for me to discount. Plus, most of Pudge's best work will be done against LHPs and there aren't too many of those he'll face. I also think Rutschman's higher OBP more than counteracts Pudge's edge on defense. You can't really go wrong with 100 Josh Gibson, 100 Rutschman, 100 Bench, 98 Rodriguez, or 99 Berra. The 100 Mickey Cochrane is an offensive juggernaut as well. __________________ Last edited by waittilnextyear; 08-19-2019 at 06:11 PM.

08-20-2019, 05:09 PM	#24
X3NEIZE All Star Reserve Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 649	I would rank him above 98 Pudge and 100 Gibson as the three best catchers all-around. __________________

09-18-2019, 10:43 AM	#25
mcdog512 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2018 Location: Pack Robert Gibson; November 9, 1935 – October 2, 2020 Posts: 2,339	Well, you guys convinced me. After re-evaluating things and starting to appreciate he's a switch hitter and his numbers, I took the plunge and picked him up to replace Bench. __________________ Last edited by mcdog512; 09-18-2019 at 10:58 AM.

09-18-2019, 12:19 PM	#33
mcdog512 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2018 Location: Pack Robert Gibson; November 9, 1935 – October 2, 2020 Posts: 2,339	My hold ratings are in order of starter from 1-5: 69 64 63 14 63 So Pete Alexander (14) may get run on but it's not Adley's arm is awful, I just got him so we'll have to see. __________________

08-19-2019, 06:02 PM	#22
Nero Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Austin, TX Posts: 206	I think I'd take Pudge over Rutschman

09-18-2019, 11:14 AM	#27
CrazyWR All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 549	Whats wrong with his defense?

09-18-2019, 11:39 AM	#30
CrazyWR All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 549	Do you see enough baserunning in perfect leagues for catcher arm to matter?

09-18-2019, 02:04 PM	#35
chazzycat All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 1,685	I have a different take on this. The key thing to remember is that the break-even point for stolen bases to be worth it, is about 75%. That means for any catcher with a CS rate above 25%, you don't actually want to discourage base-stealers. You want them to keep running. Therefore, high catcher arm ratings are actually counter-productive.

09-18-2019, 04:43 PM	#37
chazzycat All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 1,685	Sure, if you assume Orcin's stats are representative of how the game works. But that seems like cherry picking the data. There is a comment right above Orcins where Gibson & McCarver showed basically no difference at all in CS% despite the 10 points of arm difference. Why are we ignoring that data in favor of Orcins? Sample sizes are similar, it seems just as legit to me...

09-18-2019, 05:13 PM	#40
chazzycat All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 1,685	Here's my PL data to add: Posey - 1087 games - 70 arm rating - 34.7% CS - .22 CS per game Burgess - 1125 games - 49 arm rating - 35.2% CS - .26 CS per game Burgess's lower arm rating is enticing more runners to go, but they are getting thrown out at roughly the same rate despite over 20 points of arm rating. So overall it's Burgess for the win. Not saying everyone will experience this, but two thousand games is quite a lot of waiting around for a supposed advantage to manifest.