Moneyball

[<Pion>]

Originally Posted by atabakin

Keeler disappointed for me when I tried him out for a season or two, though I don't remember his exact numbers. He was decent, don't get me wrong, but his batting line was not in line with what I'd seen on other teams. Williams (Perfect version) has been pretty great out of the DH spot the last 4+ seasons: .295/.407/.519. I was hoping for a *little* higher average, but I think the slight DH penalty has something to do with that.

That's the interesting thing about this game. Could be park factors and other stuff. I have the high OVR diamond Williams and he's ended up being mostly a PH guy for me. Keeler on the other hand has a lifetime PL average of near .340 with respectable and unexpected secondary stats. I think my HR park factor is 1.000 and yet most of my HR hitters (Williams, Arenado) lose their jobs with Kaline being one that bucks the trend and usually leads my team in HRs.

Edit - you mentioned the DH penalty and my Williams was a DH also. But Keeler has been my DH and he has still hits as well as he has so far. Hopefully he doesn't go into the tank after all this praise.

[justpatrick]

Originally Posted by dkgo

ootp ratings are based on stats not waxing poetically (as much as we have stats from back then). Not saying that they are all perfect but I'm more likely to trust the ootp team's research into real analysis than some 100 year old anecdote people heard in a documentary.

Sisler was a massively negative defender according to baseball reference and fangraphs. Speaker was about average

What sources are you using to show otherwise?

My sources are/were contemporary accounts by fellow players, newspaper reporters and so on. I´m not just talking The Glory of Their Times kind of stuff, but things that were written at the time the players were in their prime. The Sporting News for example was a great place to read what people in the know really thought about players, and reporters like Fred Lieb and Ring Lardner were a joy to read.

In the 1980s I was working on my PhD in History and my thesis was that the 1914 World Series was thrown (I still believe it, btw). I spent many hours going through many sports pages on microfiche and wasted a good deal of time reading stuff that wasn´t related to my particular project at all. The time may have been wasted but it was well-spent nonetheless.

With fielding, the problem is simply that the conditions then were so utterly different that it makes it difficult to rate guys who played prior to World War Two. Regarding stl jason´s excellent post above comparing Speaker and Trout, the glove Speaker used would fit inside Trout´s with room to spare, while Speaker´s excellent range would bring him chances that a mere mortal would never have had, and of course with the inherent chances of making an error, which of course was more common with the gloves in use at the time. Therefore fielding percentage is useless when trying to rate old time players.

And we won´t even go into the condition of the balls in use up to the 1920s, which definitely made things interesting for all concerned. And then there´s trying to rate the Negro Leaguers...

I´m really curious how ootp would rate Hal Chase. During his career he was noted as perhaps the best fielding first baseman up to that time, the GOAT if you will. Unfortunately Mr Chase supplemented his income by throwing games, so along with the usual problem of gloves and ball condition, he also made a ton of errors on purpose. But the only thing we have to go by nowadays is the fielding record, which would make him something under 50 I´m sure, while closer to the mark, based on contemporary opinions, would be over 100.

I don´t pretend to set myself up as the end-all authority on this stuff, but it is something I grew up with, quite literally as Dizzy Dean was my cousin (and Paul as well, of course ), and I have studied this era extensively. And while we´re at it, another first baseman who gets the shaft is Mickey Vernon.

[Cheesehead1964]

Originally Posted by Sharkn20

PT also has some players in specific years, maybe he wasn't as good defensively, but please compare him with other players with higher ratings, and share statistic evidence to provide the team with more insight, rather than just moan.

Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk

Not moaning. Just grew up watching him and he was always highly regarded for his glove.


https://bleacherreport.com/articles/...l-time#slide15


See #15 on the list, for whatever it's worth. Also note number 2 - one of my favorite cards in the game (and many other's favorite too I'm sure).

Same thing with Lorenzo Cain. I watch him daily and he makes spectacular plays. The press in Milwaukee constantly talks about how he is robbed of a gold glove every year. In Perfect Team, he's like a 70 DEF.

https://www.brewcrewball.com/2018/10...center-fielder

[Cheesehead1964]

Originally Posted by justpatrick

I know I may sound like a broken record on this, but I really feel like the game does not value historical players´defense properly. George Sisler for example was universally recognized by contemporaries as one of the finest fielding firstbasemen in the game and yet he´s a 53, which I find quite unrealistic. And in what universe is Tris Speaker a 44 in CF? I realize it was towards the end of his career but that cannot possibly be accurate. There´s tons of more examples, these are just the tip of an Everest of an iceberg.

Interesting read on speaker (#3 on this list):
http://baseballegg.com/how-we-ranked...s-of-all-time/

[justpatrick]

Getting back on topic, while it´s not a specific rating, it doesn´t get a lot of air time here on the forum, and that is the setting of individual strategies. My main team is a high average great defense team that last year hit all of 75 homeruns. We have always had problems scoring but I found after reviewing each player and trying to set a strategy that would maximize their skills it really paid off. We went from near the bottom in scoring up to the first division so I can highly recommend setting guys up to give them the best chance to score or drive in a run.

[justpatrick]

Originally Posted by Cheesehead1964

Interesting read on speaker (#3 on this list):
http://baseballegg.com/how-we-ranked...s-of-all-time/

The whole thing was interesting, thanks very much for the link! As a Speaker fan I particularly liked the part where they said "Tris Speaker has the best defensive statistics of any outfielder in history."

[Cheesehead1964]

Originally Posted by justpatrick

Getting back on topic, while it´s not a specific rating, it doesn´t get a lot of air time here on the forum, and that is the setting of individual strategies. My main team is a high average great defense team that last year hit all of 75 homeruns. We have always had problems scoring but I found after reviewing each player and trying to set a strategy that would maximize their skills it really paid off. We went from near the bottom in scoring up to the first division so I can highly recommend setting guys up to give them the best chance to score or drive in a run.

"Getting back on topic..." LOL! I've gotten off my own topic! This thread is an interesting read though...


I've created a lot of teams that hit for high average (near leading the league) but can't score runs.


My Negro League theme team is a good example. Always hit for average. Never score runs.



I'm clueless on how to set up individual strategies, but I'm sure it would pay off. Tips? Or what global strategy should I use? I've tried both small ball and Sabermetric but haven't seen huge improvement from switching....

[justpatrick]

Originally Posted by Cheesehead1964

"Getting back on topic..." LOL! I've gotten off my own topic! This thread is an interesting read though...


I've created a lot of teams that hit for high average (near leading the league) but can't score runs.


My Negro League theme team is a good example. Always hit for average. Never score runs.



I'm clueless on how to set up individual strategies, but I'm sure it would pay off. Tips? Or what global strategy should I use? I've tried both small ball and Sabermetric but haven't seen huge improvement from switching....

I like any thread I get to bring up old players having unfair defensive ratings.

Despite your lack of scoring, the Negro Leaguers seem to have done quite okay. My problem is I like my guys so much I hate to upgrade. I still have Bill Terry at first (yes, another guy who gets the shaft defensively), and really I should have a hairy-backed power hitter there. Sentimentality gets you nowhere.

Global strategy I am very ignorant on aside from the basics. Honestly, the modern game has passed me by for sure. But for individual strategy, I simply set steal ratings higher for guys with over 80 ratings. For Tim Raines it´s all the way to the end, other guys just past the middle and so on, depending on the rating.
The same goes for baserunning. I think this one is really important and can give you an edge in scoring if you use it properly. Guys like Boggs don´t touch, you don´t want them running any more than is necessary, but the better baserunners can be set to more aggressive. What I don´t understand is how Speed affects things.
And then guys who have good contact and don´t strikeout so much I let hit and run more often. I don´t use this with power hitters though (like I have any).

[Cheesehead1964]

Originally Posted by justpatrick

I like any thread I get to bring up old players having unfair defensive ratings.

Despite your lack of scoring, the Negro Leaguers seem to have done quite okay. My problem is I like my guys so much I hate to upgrade. I still have Bill Terry at first (yes, another guy who gets the shaft defensively), and really I should have a hairy-backed power hitter there. Sentimentality gets you nowhere.

Global strategy I am very ignorant on aside from the basics. Honestly, the modern game has passed me by for sure. But for individual strategy, I simply set steal ratings higher for guys with over 80 ratings. For Tim Raines it´s all the way to the end, other guys just past the middle and so on, depending on the rating.
The same goes for baserunning. I think this one is really important and can give you an edge in scoring if you use it properly. Guys like Boggs don´t touch, you don´t want them running any more than is necessary, but the better baserunners can be set to more aggressive. What I don´t understand is how Speed affects things.
And then guys who have good contact and don´t strikeout so much I let hit and run more often. I don´t use this with power hitters though (like I have any).

Cool Papa Bell would be the perfect player to set for aggressive baserunning. In fact I'm sure I did that many seasons ago. Problem is I have so many players higher on the depth chart, he doesn't see much action...

[justpatrick]

Originally Posted by Cheesehead1964

Cool Papa Bell would be the perfect player to set for aggressive baserunning. In fact I'm sure I did that many seasons ago. Problem is I have so many players higher on the depth chart, he doesn't see much action...

I don´t recall his ratings, but I wish I had your problems.

But yes, he would be perfect to let loose for baserunning and I would think stealing as well. Raines steals around 60-70 every year for me, and I think (if you used him!) Bell would easily do the same. You do know he could switch off the light and get into bed before the room got dark, right?

[<Pion>]

Originally Posted by justpatrick

My problem is I like my guys so much I hate to upgrade. I still have Bill Terry at first (yes, another guy who gets the shaft defensively), and really I should have a hairy-backed power hitter there. Sentimentality gets you nowhere.

While I agree with your closing sentiment in regards to winning, the joy it can bring is a different thing. With PT19 I tried my best to field winning teams and did fine. With PT20, I've found more enjoyment from seeing the guys on my team that I want to be there. Winning is fleeting and for me the thrill is gone in a very short time following the victory. Seeing a guy you like that puts up the kind of stats you like playing year after year is the kind of fun that lasts for me. So Sliding Billy Hamilton still has his starting spot even though Teddy Ballgame puts up a better OPS and rides the bench.

[Goliathus]

Originally Posted by Cheesehead1964

"Getting back on topic..." LOL! I've gotten off my own topic! This thread is an interesting read though...

I've created a lot of teams that hit for high average (near leading the league) but can't score runs.

My Negro League theme team is a good example. Always hit for average. Never score runs.

I'm clueless on how to set up individual strategies, but I'm sure it would pay off. Tips? Or what global strategy should I use? I've tried both small ball and Sabermetric but haven't seen huge improvement from switching....

This sounds stupid to ask cuz I think you would have done it already but...have you tried ordering the batting order around? I have tried some wacky batting orders that goes against the traditional like 4 pairs of "base stealer to high average" and the leftover at 9th. I am banking of any of base stealers hitting a single or goes base by ball and then stealing second for the high average dude to hit him home. Just grinding it 1 point at a time.

Originally Posted by justpatrick

I like any thread I get to bring up old players having unfair defensive ratings.

Despite your lack of scoring, the Negro Leaguers seem to have done quite okay. My problem is I like my guys so much I hate to upgrade. I still have Bill Terry at first (yes, another guy who gets the shaft defensively), and really I should have a hairy-backed power hitter there. Sentimentality gets you nowhere.

Global strategy I am very ignorant on aside from the basics. Honestly, the modern game has passed me by for sure. But for individual strategy, I simply set steal ratings higher for guys with over 80 ratings. For Tim Raines it´s all the way to the end, other guys just past the middle and so on, depending on the rating.
The same goes for baserunning. I think this one is really important and can give you an edge in scoring if you use it properly. Guys like Boggs don´t touch, you don´t want them running any more than is necessary, but the better baserunners can be set to more aggressive. What I don´t understand is how Speed affects things.
And then guys who have good contact and don´t strikeout so much I let hit and run more often. I don´t use this with power hitters though (like I have any).

You need to be careful of hyperaggression on stealing and baserunning. Sometime, setting the Tim Raines and the like all the way to the right might not be right(pun intended). As they are already confident in their stealing ability, they will steal even with the bar at the left, just more carefully. The bar sets to right mean they will be crazy stealer and sometime they would have ridiculously high CS as a result of that. My vision is to always keep the ratio high instead of the actual SB number(unless you are shooting for achievements, then go ahead). Like I would take 40:5 over 55:15. Also, it's important to monitor the baserunning performance every season cuz they are always different. I think it has something to do with the different catchers and pitchers(hold runner) they face every season.

Speed is important because it is the primary stat. From my observation, someone with 50 speed 80 basestealing is just an overconfident idiot who think he's legit when he's not -- kind of like the dude in your pickup team that said he can hit the three ball and he always disappoint. Like I have seen dudes like that get caught a lot, and their 80 basestealing is asking the sim to let them steal but their 50 speed tells the sim they will fail -- so they tried and failed. All in all, they are a disaster and free out for the opponent. I tend to pull the bars of these fellows to the left so they don't go crazy when not needed. Same goes for baserunning. A good speedster should have close to 1:1:1 on all three speed stats, or you have to adjust the sliders accordingly.

Also, I have seen massive difference between a 70 speed guy and a 90 speed guy when it comes to running performance. Speed is a legit stat.

[dkgo]

Originally Posted by Goliathus

Speed is important because it is the primary stat. From my observation, someone with 50 speed 80 basestealing is just an overconfident idiot who think he's legit when he's not -- kind of like the dude in your pickup team that said he can hit the three ball and he always disappoint. Like I have seen dudes like that get caught a lot, and their 80 basestealing is asking the sim to let them steal but their 50 speed tells the sim they will fail -- so they tried and failed. All in all, they are a disaster and free out for the opponent.

Based on what the devs have said before and the description in manual it is the exact opposite.

The speed rating (plus strategy setting) determines how often a SB attempt is made, then the stolen base rating (plus catcher arm and pitcher hold) determines if it is successful.

"A combination of strategy settings for stealing bases and Running Speed is used to determine how often a runner is given a "green light" to steal a base. Speed and pitcher Hold Rating then determine how good a jump the runner gets. If he gets a good jump and goes (ie a stolen base attempt) the Catcher Arm, pitcher Hold Rating, the type of pitch and Stealing Bases rating are the factors which determine whether the runner is safe."

[justpatrick]

Originally Posted by <Pion>

While I agree with your closing sentiment in regards to winning, the joy it can bring is a different thing. With PT19 I tried my best to field winning teams and did fine. With PT20, I've found more enjoyment from seeing the guys on my team that I want to be there. Winning is fleeting and for me the thrill is gone in a very short time following the victory. Seeing a guy you like that puts up the kind of stats you like playing year after year is the kind of fun that lasts for me. So Sliding Billy Hamilton still has his starting spot even though Teddy Ballgame puts up a better OPS and rides the bench.

I very much agree with you! In 19 I went to perfect league much too quickly, and as a F2P team all I could do was wallow in 75-85 win range. I realized that I had my most fun down in bronze and silver, so this time around I have been going quite slowly and enjoying myself. I am now in my fifth season in diamond, or maybe sixth, and that after spending eight in gold. I really have no huge desire to promote to perfect, but I am building for it in case it happens accidentally. I´m just doing it slowly.

[Goliathus]

Originally Posted by dkgo

Based on what the devs have said before and the description in manual it is the exact opposite.

The speed rating (plus strategy setting) determines how often a SB attempt is made, then the stolen base rating (plus catcher arm and pitcher hold) determines if it is successful.

"A combination of strategy settings for stealing bases and Running Speed is used to determine how often a runner is given a "green light" to steal a base. Speed and pitcher Hold Rating then determine how good a jump the runner gets. If he gets a good jump and goes (ie a stolen base attempt) the Catcher Arm, pitcher Hold Rating, the type of pitch and Stealing Bases rating are the factors which determine whether the runner is safe."

Well what the f*** then, how the hell is my 50 speed 70+ SB dudes so garbage? They steal what I would say is more than a 50 speed should and they fail more than what I see from other players in the same SB range.

Time for me to re-experiment and re-assess stuff, I guess.

[Cheesehead1964]

Originally Posted by <Pion>

While I agree with your closing sentiment in regards to winning, the joy it can bring is a different thing. With PT19 I tried my best to field winning teams and did fine. With PT20, I've found more enjoyment from seeing the guys on my team that I want to be there. Winning is fleeting and for me the thrill is gone in a very short time following the victory. Seeing a guy you like that puts up the kind of stats you like playing year after year is the kind of fun that lasts for me. So Sliding Billy Hamilton still has his starting spot even though Teddy Ballgame puts up a better OPS and rides the bench.

Originally Posted by justpatrick

I very much agree with you! In 19 I went to perfect league much too quickly, and as a F2P team all I could do was wallow in 75-85 win range. I realized that I had my most fun down in bronze and silver, so this time around I have been going quite slowly and enjoying myself. I am now in my fifth season in diamond, or maybe sixth, and that after spending eight in gold. I really have no huge desire to promote to perfect, but I am building for it in case it happens accidentally. I´m just doing it slowly.

This is my first year playing PT and I love it but I progressed way too quickly. I enjoyed building the winning teams, and now have switched to theme teams because I enjoy collecting the cards. But floundering in Perfect hasn't been too fun. Next year I'm going to do a much slower burn, either with FTP or different theme teams.

[justpatrick]

I´m definitely having a better time this way. Like Pion was saying, it´s nice having guys you actually like on your team. Viva Bill Terry!

[Argonaut]

Originally Posted by Goliathus

Well what the f*** then, how the hell is my 50 speed 70+ SB dudes so garbage? They steal what I would say is more than a 50 speed should and they fail more than what I see from other players in the same SB range.

Time for me to re-experiment and re-assess stuff, I guess.

50/70 Speed/Stealing guys are pretty middling as far as bagswiping goes. They would only do well stealing at Iron level, if that. To steal effectively in PT cards need to be 90/90 and up in higher tiers.

In terms of the topic, I love a Moneyball approach. What I can tell you is Contact, Movement, and Defense are definitely not undervalued, as they are pretty meta ratings.

I'm trying to find things in cards that are actually undervalued. Bunting are a team strategy is definitely not useful. Speed as an overall strategy is a little more useful. Stuff is regarded as the worst of the 3 pitcher ratings by a lot of people, but I really like it for PP generation and for offensive ballparks.

[Charlatan]

What about the Eye rating? I guess of all of the batting ratings, I find that one sort of overlooked, yet pretty important. At least in my experience.

[Argonaut]

Originally Posted by Charlatan

What about the Eye rating? I guess of all of the batting ratings, I find that one sort of overlooked, yet pretty important. At least in my experience.

Yeah, Eye is something that an increase in is welcome no matter what. And it can sneakily bump up the value of a card.

Power bump from 10 to 40? Meh, not worth much.
Eye bump from 10 to 40? A lot better card.