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Old 10-31-2019, 11:33 AM   #521
Leo_The_Lip
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Biggest comeback in over 100 years--since the Miracle Braves of 1914.

Some excellent analytical points in this article:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...uldnt-say-die/

The swing in win probabilities is amazing. I'd also like to see this chart updated with Kendrick's at bat added:

http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/201...d-series-game/

Or this chart:

http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/201...d-series-game/

One of the things I love about this chart is the obvious: Game 7 of the 1960 WS was the greatest game 7 in history and likely won't be topped. I remember 10-year old me watching the finish at home, after school, on a B&W TV with my buddy, rooting for the Yankees and looking for a Hal Smith baseball card to rip up but not having one. Then cheering when the Yankees tied it up in the ninth and finally ripping my Mazeroski card in the end.

A great year to be a sports fan in Virginia, UVA wins three consecutive OT games to take the NCAA tourney, then the Nationals comeback multiple times to win the WS. Fun year!
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Old 10-31-2019, 11:35 AM   #522
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CBeisbol View Post
A bit more than $30 million is what billionaire owner Mark Lerner wouldn't shell out to retain Harper
???
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Old 10-31-2019, 11:37 AM   #523
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Let's talk about him for a minute. My intention is not to gloat, for I care not for Bryce Harper, one way or the other.

Still, I have a bit of satisfaction knowing that Harper was seated on his rear end like the rest of us last night, watching the game on TV (unless he was in the stands). What was he feeling? Regret, perhaps?

For, what is the difference between $300 million and $330 million? Don't say "30 million" or I will report your post!

Already more money than most people would know what to do with, but he wanted $30 million more. Do you think he's regretting that now? Seven years with the Nationals, and they win it all the year that he jumps ship.

I wouldn't want to be Bryce Harper this morning.
I think he'll be fine. Everyone knows the MLB playoffs are a total crapshoot, it's basically like he watched someone roll a couple 7s in a row after leaving the table.
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Old 10-31-2019, 12:19 PM   #524
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Let's talk about him for a minute. My intention is not to gloat, for I care not for Bryce Harper, one way or the other.

Still, I have a bit of satisfaction knowing that Harper was seated on his rear end like the rest of us last night, watching the game on TV (unless he was in the stands). What was he feeling? Regret, perhaps?

For, what is the difference between $300 million and $330 million? Don't say "30 million" or I will report your post!

Already more money than most people would know what to do with, but he wanted $30 million more. Do you think he's regretting that now? Seven years with the Nationals, and they win it all the year that he jumps ship.

I wouldn't want to be Bryce Harper this morning.
Dave Chapelle's take

Everyone wants to win. That's obvious. But not everyone makes winning a top priority. Zack Greinke is the only athlete I know whoever admitted it.
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Old 10-31-2019, 12:22 PM   #525
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When a guy holds out for a big contract he's no just doing it for himself, he's doing it for the next group of guys as well.
That's an interesting point. Plausible, but I'm not sure if it buy it. I don't see any of these superstars as crusaders for the labor movement.

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Also, I'd rather players have the money than owners. Nothing wrong with making what the market thinks you're worth. Supply and demand and all.
Don't forget one crucial thing: All of this money is coming from people like you and me. We all have to pay more now, much more, for access to the game that we love. True, I'd rather the players got the money than the owners hoarding it but I would prefer that everybody would be satisfied with less money. How's that for wishful thinking?

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Originally Posted by dkgo View Post
I think he'll be fine. Everyone knows the MLB playoffs are a total crapshoot, it's basically like he watched someone roll a couple 7s in a row after leaving the table.
Oh, he'll be fine, alright. Financially. There's something about $27.5MM per annum that makes it so. But spiritually? I'm not so sure. One thing that I am sure about is that, once the money is in the bank, it's not very important anymore. What is important is the validation of your life's efforts and there is nothing like winning a championship for taking care of that. No, I got to think Harper is kicking himself a bit today because he has missed out and who knows when the golden ring will come around again, if ever?
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Old 10-31-2019, 12:57 PM   #526
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???
Framing

The media, controlled by billionaires, pushes the idea of the greedy millionaire player who left for "just" $30 million more

But it could also be framed as the greedy billionaire owner who let the star player get away for "just" $30 million.



Quote:
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That's an interesting point. Plausible, but I'm not sure if it buy it. I don't see any of these superstars as crusaders for the labor movement.
You can choose what you do and do not buy

But it's a pretty well known phenomenon.

Quote:
But because the union sees Pujols as a player who can raise the salary bar, he's under more pressure than your average player, La Russa said.

This sort of pressure has gone on for years, with many high-profile players, La Russa went on. But in Pujols' case, he said, this was "not just arm-twisting. It's dropping an anvil on your back through the roof of your house."

La Russa said he had no specific evidence that Pujols was being pressured by the players' union. But he said his many years in the game have made that "a guaranteed assumption. It's gone on since I started managing. And I don't think they'd deny it."
https://www.espn.com/mlb/spring2011/...ory?id=6124272


Might as well bring this up as well
Quote:
As discontent continues to boil in Major League Baseball's labor situation, The Athletic reported on a shocking revelation – that the league hands out an actual championship belt every year to the team that did best to keep salaries lowest in arbitration.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...ll/3308815002/
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Old 10-31-2019, 01:59 PM   #527
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All ifs ands or buts, if Harper stays do the Nats make the moves they did, if Harper stays and they still make the same moves do the Nats still win? Nobody knows. However I can say with confidence I'm betting he wished he was still on that roster last night, also betting it went through his mind "was that my one chance of a ring".
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Old 10-31-2019, 02:08 PM   #528
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One thing I object to is people saying the Nats got hot. Washington has been one of the top 4 or 5 teams in the league since May. This isn't a Cinderella story. When you sustain that kind of play for that long, you aren't hot. You're good. The poor start fooled us all.
After the 19-31 start. the Nats went 74-38. When you consider that the 19-31 start was - quite obviously - at the start of the season and thus irrelevant to the caliber of team that entered the postseason, you're talking a team that is the equivalent of a 107-win powerhouse.

So, that the powerhouse team would get by the Brewers in the WC and the 106-win Dodgers in the Divisional, sweep the 91-win Cards in the NLCS, and squeak past the 107-win Astros in the WS is no Cinderella story. The come-from-behind-manner (in both games and in series') in which they won might make it seem like a Cinderella story, but finishing the season 74-38 and then going 12-5 to win the postseason is one helluva hot streak.

So yes, agree!
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Old 11-01-2019, 11:35 AM   #529
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Quote:
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Framing

The media, controlled by billionaires, pushes the idea of the greedy millionaire player who left for "just" $30 million more

But it could also be framed as the greedy billionaire owner who let the star player get away for "just" $30 million.
I understand, however you completely missed the point I made that taxes reduce the reality of BOTH sides of the equation. In fact, a greedy owner pays (on a net of tax basis) a whole lot less than $330 millions to get Harper and Harper got less than $30 million more.

Tax shelters are why pro sports exist. Similarly, if donors couldn't deduct their checks from their taxes, college sports would be more like HS.
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Old 11-24-2019, 04:15 PM   #530
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Same question as the NFL thread as I'm planning a trip 2020 or 21, also an addition. Is the negro leagues museum worth a detour from say Chicago to Kansas?

Anyone been to the Hall of Fame in Cooperstown? How many days would you set aside? 1? 2? Or even 3? I like to take my time at museums and such rather than just fly by everything
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Old 11-24-2019, 05:10 PM   #531
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Same question as the NFL thread as I'm planning a trip 2020 or 21, also an addition. Is the negro leagues museum worth a detour from say Chicago to Kansas?

Anyone been to the Hall of Fame in Cooperstown? How many days would you set aside? 1? 2? Or even 3? I like to take my time at museums and such rather than just fly by everything
I can't answer your question, seeing as I haven't been. But KC is on my bucket list because it also has the jazz HOF. So, I don't know if you are into music too. But that might factor in.
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Old 11-24-2019, 05:30 PM   #532
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KC is worth a trip alone for the beef BBQ
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Old 11-24-2019, 06:35 PM   #533
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I can't answer your question, seeing as I haven't been. But KC is on my bucket list because it also has the jazz HOF. So, I don't know if you are into music too. But that might factor in.
Not into jazz but was looking at the Rock n Roll in Cleveland, it's a loose schedule so far as I'd have to wait for the schedules but I was looking at NY to Chicago hence detour to KC from Chicago.
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Old 11-24-2019, 06:38 PM   #534
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KC is worth a trip alone for the beef BBQ
May have to lose some timber or find hotels with gyms, I eat well at home but I'm active with the smallholding but 3 weeks eating and no activity ouch lol.
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Old 12-02-2019, 07:16 PM   #535
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Looks like the Reds are going to be the team to finally pony up and sign Moustakas to a multi-year deal.
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Old 12-03-2019, 09:07 AM   #536
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Same question as the NFL thread as I'm planning a trip 2020 or 21, also an addition. Is the negro leagues museum worth a detour from say Chicago to Kansas?

Anyone been to the Hall of Fame in Cooperstown? How many days would you set aside? 1? 2? Or even 3? I like to take my time at museums and such rather than just fly by everything
If you're in the vicinity, the Negro League museum is a fun little stop... should only take a couple hours at max if you stop and read every exhibit/etc.... the building also contains a jazz museum, so if you're there and have the time, hit 'em both (was there a few months ago but only had time for one so just hit the baseball side)... (edit: and guess if I could actually read, I would have seen you already answered regarding the jazz part... lol)

and afterwards, you're only about 3 miles from the J. Rieger distillery, so you can stop in there to sample some local spirits

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Old 12-03-2019, 02:35 PM   #537
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I'm a little baffled to the negative fan base reaction to the Giants letting Pillar go.

Pillar was a godawful fielder with poor-to-pedestrian, and very suspect, offensive numbers ... that was scheduled to get $10mil through arbitration.

No-brainer to let him walk.
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Old 12-03-2019, 04:30 PM   #538
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Pillar was a godawful fielder
What?
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Old 12-03-2019, 04:53 PM   #539
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What?
FanGraphs has him at 12th defensively out of 14 of CFs in SABR (-5 in defensive runs)
Negative dWAR
Lacks speed (56th out of 77 rated CFs, and 173th overall)

Pillar isn't the quality fielding outfielder he use to be. He's 31 now, and no longer 25.
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Old 12-08-2019, 09:31 PM   #540
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Congrats to Marvin Miller and Ted Simmons on getting elected into the HOF. Worthy choices. I was still pulling for Sweet Lou though.
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