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Old 03-05-2019, 04:01 PM   #21
jimmysthebestcop
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Ummmm what lol
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Old 03-05-2019, 04:02 PM   #22
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He's basically asking if the raw Zips-generated player ratings are adjusted to remove park effects since the OOTP simulation will re-apply them. I would assume there is some tweaking done by hand by the devs, but only they can really answer the question.
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Old 03-05-2019, 04:12 PM   #23
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Originally Posted by jimmysthebestcop View Post
Ummmm what lol
Take OOTP 18 ratings. Run a sim. Call those your "projections." Recalc all players ratings with the stats you just got from your one sim. Run the sim again.

What happens there is you take the ratings, run it through variables such as park factors, opponent strength, etc., then then recalc the ratings and run it through those variables again. SEE THE PROBLEM?

If Zips applies variables such as those in their projections, then its a huge problem because OOTP is already going to apply them.
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Old 03-05-2019, 04:32 PM   #24
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Usining “neutralize stats” if they were available would be ideal. Using real stats also overinflates the value of NL pitchers vs AL pitchers due to the DH. (Is more runs scored in AL).
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Old 03-05-2019, 05:18 PM   #25
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I don't believe ZiPS uses those variables in their projections. as far as i know, ZiPS looks at past performance with heavier emphasis on more recent seasons and applies a growth and aging curve depending on player type. colorado players will probably be projected for a higher babip because of the environment, but babip isnt really representative of anything as most know that babip fluctuates year over year. for what its worth, nolan arenado one of the best hitters in the league is projected for a .308 babip this season from ZiPS, barely above average and his career babip is exactly .300, around the major league average
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Old 03-05-2019, 07:13 PM   #26
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This is a feature, not a bug. The Rockies having higher BABIPs than the rest of the league mirrors real life. Their actual team BABIP over the past 5 seasons has been... .320

Exactly the same as it was in your simulation.
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Old 03-05-2019, 07:48 PM   #27
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Call me crazy, but I see his point. Based on the park, it will significantly overrate or underrate a player.
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Old 03-05-2019, 07:49 PM   #28
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Originally Posted by Bears5122 View Post
Call me crazy, but I see his point. Based on the park, it will significantly overrate or underrate a player.
How so? ZiPS is park-adjusted.
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Old 03-05-2019, 09:04 PM   #29
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Originally Posted by wolverinebball11 View Post
How so? ZiPS is park-adjusted.
But ratings shouldn't be based on their current park factors. Ratings should be based off how they'd perform in a neutral setting.

This is incredibly simplified for the sake of argument.

If you took Player X and assumed with no park factors, he would hit 30 home runs a year. Now say that translates to a 65 rating in power.

But in OOTP, it makes the rating based off where they are playing. So lets say Player X played in Coors last season. OOTP would perhaps rate him a 70 in power because he was able to hit 35 homers due to the park.

That means if you traded him before opening day to a team that was neutral in terms of homers, he would hit 35 homers because he is rated a 70 instead of a 65. He would also hit more than 35 homers in Coors if he stayed with the Rockies because his power rating wasn't done with park factors off.

Basically the argument is that park shouldn't play a role in your rating. Your stats will change based on where you play, but a 65 power guy is a 65 power guy regardless of where they play. But with ZiPS, playing in Coors last season turned him into a 70 power guy when he is not. Playing in Petco would get him rated a 60 power guy.

Last edited by Bears5122; 03-05-2019 at 09:56 PM.
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Old 03-05-2019, 10:35 PM   #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bears5122 View Post
But ratings shouldn't be based on their current park factors. Ratings should be based off how they'd perform in a neutral setting.

This is incredibly simplified for the sake of argument.

If you took Player X and assumed with no park factors, he would hit 30 home runs a year. Now say that translates to a 65 rating in power.

But in OOTP, it makes the rating based off where they are playing. So lets say Player X played in Coors last season. OOTP would perhaps rate him a 70 in power because he was able to hit 35 homers due to the park.

That means if you traded him before opening day to a team that was neutral in terms of homers, he would hit 35 homers because he is rated a 70 instead of a 65. He would also hit more than 35 homers in Coors if he stayed with the Rockies because his power rating wasn't done with park factors off.

Basically the argument is that park shouldn't play a role in your rating. Your stats will change based on where you play, but a 65 power guy is a 65 power guy regardless of where they play. But with ZiPS, playing in Coors last season turned him into a 70 power guy when he is not. Playing in Petco would get him rated a 60 power guy.
which is why i said ratings are an indicator of your current ability, not an indicator of your statistical performance. if everyone is rated with variables such as park factors included, each player is rated on a different playing field, so how is that fair? Rate everyone on a neutral playing field and let the sim do its work.
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Old 03-05-2019, 10:39 PM   #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wolverinebball11 View Post
How so? ZiPS is park-adjusted.
so you take a 60 power guy on the rockies, he hits 35 homers because of coors in the projection, so now you rate him a 70 in power because of the projection and now he hits 45 in your sim.
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Old 03-06-2019, 11:19 AM   #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by itsmb8 View Post
so you take a 60 power guy on the rockies, he hits 35 homers because of coors in the projection, so now you rate him a 70 in power because of the projection and now he hits 45 in your sim.
I believe this is on the right track. If you use neutral park factors in your sim, he will hit around 35 (depending on randomness, etc.). If you use park factors in your sim, then he should hit more. I am not sure how much more since only half the games are at home.
Anyway, that is my understanding. I play historical and at one time the OOTP manual use to say that using the neutralized stats option might give you the most realistic results.
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Old 03-06-2019, 07:55 PM   #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bears5122 View Post
But ratings shouldn't be based on their current park factors. Ratings should be based off how they'd perform in a neutral setting.

This is incredibly simplified for the sake of argument.

If you took Player X and assumed with no park factors, he would hit 30 home runs a year. Now say that translates to a 65 rating in power.

But in OOTP, it makes the rating based off where they are playing. So lets say Player X played in Coors last season. OOTP would perhaps rate him a 70 in power because he was able to hit 35 homers due to the park.

That means if you traded him before opening day to a team that was neutral in terms of homers, he would hit 35 homers because he is rated a 70 instead of a 65. He would also hit more than 35 homers in Coors if he stayed with the Rockies because his power rating wasn't done with park factors off.

Basically the argument is that park shouldn't play a role in your rating. Your stats will change based on where you play, but a 65 power guy is a 65 power guy regardless of where they play. But with ZiPS, playing in Coors last season turned him into a 70 power guy when he is not. Playing in Petco would get him rated a 60 power guy.
Wow, it turns out this is correct. If you go to the editor with 100% accurate ratings, the "Resulting Stats (in a neutral, modern Major League environment)" for Rockies players are almost identical to what their stats are projected to be at Coors Field based on their ZiPS preseason projection article. This needs to be fixed.
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Old 03-06-2019, 08:25 PM   #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wolverinebball11 View Post
Wow, it turns out this is correct. If you go to the editor with 100% accurate ratings, the "Resulting Stats (in a neutral, modern Major League environment)" for Rockies players are almost identical to what their stats are projected to be at Coors Field based on their ZiPS preseason projection article. This needs to be fixed.
Do you think the roster people might not know that ZiPS is producing adjusted (park, league, handedness etc) stats? If you already input adjusted stats and then the OOTP ballpark factors add in on top of that, then you are basically double-adjusting.

It would seem unlikely that seasoned roster editors would not know this.
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Old 03-06-2019, 08:41 PM   #35
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I distinctly remember participating in a forum discussion like this at least ten years ago. I have trouble believing that double counting park factors is still a problem. The developers are bound to have fixed it.
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Old 03-06-2019, 10:39 PM   #36
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Seems they do make some adjustments (exactly what I don't know)...

http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...54#post4446054

Quote:
Originally Posted by Matt Arnold
I think it was mentioned in the newsletter, but it's based on Zips (and then there is some adjusting by the team to make sure the rosters come out correct and balanced).
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Old 03-07-2019, 02:52 PM   #37
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Quote:
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It's not zips fault - we only really use them for creating the current player ratings. Anything that happens after that is the player creation/player development engine at work.

Why your team BABIP is higher than before could be many factors. Maybe you simply have better players, or better BABIP players. Maybe the other teams in your division are playing terrible players at SS against you giving you a lot of extra hits. Maybe league stats have spiraled up, or league offense has increased, or there's something weird going on with your park factors.

There's a lot of possibilities, but if you're anything past the first year of a new game, it's not Zips at play. And anyways, we've been using zips for ratings for the last 2-3 years now (since OOTP 16 or 17, I think).
this has already been mentioned by a dev in this thread. they've been using ZiPS for a few versions now, but the OP says that ootp 19 caused the jump in babips for rockies players. unless there is some sort of bug for ootp 19 only, it wouldnt explain why there was such a big jump in babip when there was an import from ootp 18 to 19. it has to be external factors based on the quality of teams in the league at the time, i think
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Old 03-07-2019, 03:39 PM   #38
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any up-and-coming team is likely to be underrated. there's typically a lag-time of ratings catching up to performance... it's inevitably always behind due to dynamics of how it works.

those teams tend to have younger players. i.e. more unknowns and less clarity of so-called knowns. they are more susceptible to this phenomenom of being underrated. just as some older more established teams are more likely to be overrated relative to that years RL performance vs that year's ootp release ratings.

it can happen vice versa too, but if i had to guess what happens more or has a statstically signicant higher chance to occur, that's where my money is.

like others stated, one season isn't necessarily the 'truth' as time will show. maybe those players are that good, maybe they had a lucky year with an inordinate number of players having career years. time will tell and 1 season isn't enough to know for sure on this stuff. ootp may very well not have them underrated in hindsight... impossible to know at the moment in spite of any feelings on the subject.

also, any portion of the process that involves a human will undoubtedly be biased toward larger markets liek players on LA or NYY.

for example... look at mike judge and JD Martinez's ratings history. i gaurantee judge's ratings were adjusted far faster than martinez's. it took nearly 2 seasons of elevated play for martinez's ratings to match his performance.

(tbh, i am only assuming judge got some bumps either his rookie year or leading into it... i'm sure there are examples of what i speak of, if not. it's not 100% a quantitative process. it's not the zip portion that causes it, if that's just an equation of math.)

so when there is personal attention applied, guess who gets less attention and is more likely to have some negative bias? players in smaller and less known markets/teams. these type of effects permeate society, and sports are not immune. while i think it does exist, i don't think it's intentional or nefariously done.

just as most fans think the players on their team are typically better than they actually are, bias is inevitable any time a human is involved. even the fairest of us all
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Old 03-07-2019, 06:36 PM   #39
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Quote:
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for example... look at mike judge and JD Martinez's ratings history. i gaurantee judge's ratings were adjusted far faster than martinez's. it took nearly 2 seasons of elevated play for martinez's ratings to match his performance.
I would have to say that Mike Judge has played up quite well to those early ratings boosts, based upon King of the Hill alone, if nothing else. Then again, however one might feel about Beavis and Butthead, Office Space was a pretty early indicator that he was going to have a fine career.
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