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Old 04-04-2018, 07:57 PM   #1
TheSpider
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Should I promote or not?

I've got a situation occurring in my franchise right now, I've got a AAA Catcher who has progressed through the system and I'm not sure whether I should promote him to the Majors.

Catcher in majors: 26 years old: Contact 50/50 Gap Power 60/60 HR Power 50/50 Eye/Discipline 35/35 Avoid K's 45/45 Catcher Ability is 55 and Catcher Arm is 75. Overall 3 Stars and Potential is 3 stars.

Catcher in Minors: 23 years old:Contact 45/50 Gap Power 70/70 HR Power 45/55 Eye/Discipline 50/50 Avoid K's 35/40 Catcher Ability 55 and Catcher Arm is 75. Overall 2 Stars and Potential is 4 1/2 stars.

I'm thinking of letting the 23 year old stay in the minors for one more season before I bring him up.

Sorry about the text it wouldn't let me attach pictures.
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Old 04-04-2018, 08:15 PM   #2
drhay53
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IMO you're going to want to give him time for that contact to come up as far as possible.

But keep an eye on him; if he's tearing up AAA, bring him up and let him play a bit. If he struggles, don't let him languish. In my experience catchers can be tough to get them to hit like you "want" them to. Since there's no real difference in the defense, give him time to get his bat fully developed.
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Old 04-04-2018, 08:15 PM   #3
Silfir
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Well, first of all, who is your backup catcher? Is the 26-year-old starting or is he playing second fiddle himself?

What you have to weigh, basically, is the "wasted" service time of the rookie catcher who is not at his full potential yet, against the extra wins that he might get you in the backup catcher position (maybe one or two?), and whether those extra wins might be the difference between making the playoffs or not.
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Old 04-04-2018, 08:21 PM   #4
drhay53
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Backup catcher probably good for 0.5-1 WAR in the best scenarios, for me at least.

Your goal is that he's comfortable in the majors to take over for the older player at some point. Since he has higher potential, you're hoping for him to reach it, then perhaps flip the other catcher for some relief pitching and/or depth in the 40 man.

Some guys are comfortable the minute you bring them up. Some guys get shuttled up and down a few times over a couple of years before they settle in. And some guys never settle in unless you just give them the job and let them work through it. I'm afraid there's no real way to know which guy a player is.
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Old 04-04-2018, 08:27 PM   #5
TheSpider
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Sorry, I forgot to add that bit. But the Catcher in the Majors is my starting catcher and the backup catcher is a 2 Star Overall/Potential and 30 years old.

What I'm worried about is that his expectations (5 Star Potential) is to start in the majors, would that effect his development in any way? I was thinking about letting him develop for the season in the Minors and bring him in during September call-ups.

A question about September call-ups, will calling him up start his service time?
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Old 04-04-2018, 09:28 PM   #6
Silfir
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Calling him up will result in service time as long as he's called up, yes. I'd watch his development throughout the year; if he's tearing up AAA and your other catchers are cold just call him up and he might add a couple of wins for you, even if he's not at his peak.

I don't think you'd have to be shy about minor league options with this player, so you can probably send him up and down freely throughout this year and the following ones to fine-tune his service time for maximum control.

I ignore my player's expectations out of hand as a rule - I have expectations of them, they don't get to have expectations of me. I honestly couldn't tell you if failing to adhere to the childish whims and personal delusions of my minor league players has affected their development negatively in the past. I'd file that under "unavoidable consequences of aforementioned rule".

Last edited by Silfir; 04-04-2018 at 09:31 PM.
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Old 04-04-2018, 09:29 PM   #7
spleen1015
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September call up will start his service time.
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Old 04-04-2018, 09:31 PM   #8
drhay53
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Also have never paid much attention to player expectations. If you're tearing up AAA and I think you're valuable, I'll call you up and play you. If you have -0.2 WAR in AAA, well, shut up and play.

Also, the MLBPA hates me because I will wait until after the draft in June to call up players who I think are going to stick, just to avoid super 2 arbitration status.

Last edited by drhay53; 04-04-2018 at 09:33 PM.
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Old 04-05-2018, 09:02 AM   #9
geisterhome
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I don't pay as much attention to service time when it comes to catchers. From what I have seen they usually don't last as long as position players.

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Old 04-05-2018, 02:28 PM   #10
TheSpider
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Good advice! Thanks for the responses.
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Old 04-05-2018, 02:38 PM   #11
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i'd use him as the mlb backup.. he's good enough now and development can go higher in the mlb... no worries about negative effect of over-simmering.

relative to a catcher he's "good enough" that he be somewhere in the middle even with a 45 contact.

after a year, you can decide which to keep or trade.. @26/27 you still got ~3-4 viable years before any real concern about aging on a catcher. they do start aging before other positions, but ~30aged season is still safe.

i try to avoid "getting lucky" about age. trade before it ruins their value etc.

unless you got an average offense, these guys shouldn't be anywhere near the first 6 batters anyway. ~.250 hitters with a light amont of xbh power.

Last edited by NoOne; 04-05-2018 at 02:40 PM.
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Old 04-05-2018, 08:30 PM   #12
drhay53
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To each their own philosophy of course, but for me, 45 contact is pretty much a no-go. Ultimately though, the decision to call him up to the majors would be dependent on how well he's playing in AAA. If he's got a couple hundred ABs and his OPS+ is around 100 or better, he's probably ready, regardless of what the scouting team says on his contact.

Ratings are a starting point for me, but in the long-term I tend to default to performance. Random statistical fluctuations taken into account, of course...
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Old 04-05-2018, 10:12 PM   #13
UltimateAverageGuy
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in regards to this, do you guys have your scouting reports updated monthly or bi-monthly?
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Old 04-05-2018, 10:17 PM   #14
drhay53
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I think I update mine bi-monthly, but in all honesty, players don't change fast enough for that to be a critical thing.

Typically I decide on my 40 man right before spring training using scouting ratings, and at that point I have a pretty good idea of any prospects who might be good enough to get a call up that year. Anybody who changes faster than that probably needs to build up some stats for me to believe the change is 'real' and not just a typical scouting fluctuation anyway.

But I'm the type of person who likes data, and since there are now nice plots, I'll probably leave it to update as often as possible.
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Old 04-05-2018, 11:11 PM   #15
NoOne
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it's a greater resolution, so it helps... players can change 1/week, unless they've changed how that works in the last few years.

turn 100% accuracy on and see when they update.. used to be every 7 days.

inaccuracy is always a concern, but 2months is more likely to blindisde you with aging or any TCR drastic change etc.. how much of an effect? probably not toomuch different between 1 month and 2, but it is an effect nonetheless.

you can always request an updated scouting report on players invovled in a trade or if you are questioning a previous decision between 2 players on your team.

fwiw, stats are caused by ratings.. stats take longer to show the 'new' player as defined by his ratings. anytime a player changes, you need to reset clock on sample size to define by stats = lag time. scouting inaccuracy makes it important to use stats to verify ratings, nonetheless.

if you see a 32 year old's ratings take a dive off a cliff in a short period of time, then you shouldn't wait for stats to catch up. while developing, you should rely more on stats to verify ability at lower level than at higher levels.. accuacy is way better at AAA.

it's all a funciton of how accurate your scouting it... if it's really poor, you need to use stats as the primary evaluation method and relative to baselines of his current league..
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Old 04-06-2018, 03:06 AM   #16
drhay53
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Oh yeah, definitely, older players in decline, I ain't waiting for stats to catch up. You always know that day is coming. But a young player who gets hit with TCR, I never really know right away if it's just scouting fluctuation or not. So what I'm saying is a scouting report every two weeks is probably not going to make or break my decisions versus once a month.

I do think I set it to every two weeks for trading purposes actually. Just to make sure the scouting report is reasonably up to date.

But for younger players, what I'm saying is that even if the jump in ratings is real, I don't like to call a player up unless he's playing well in AAA. I figure if he's not playing well there, why would he play well in the Majors? The exception is in injury crises, of course.
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Old 04-06-2018, 04:36 AM   #17
NoOne
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you already use the highest reso. 1month or every 2 months..

bi-monthly is every 2 months, i'm fairly sure... unfortuantely that word means both. context is the key.. unless they retardedly put htem out of numerical order on the screen and in the dropdown box.

with defaults, raitngs are the strongest correlation to success and can be proven mathematically. it's like betting against the odds in vegas if you do otherwise... or using the osa over your own better funded scout.. or using just "overall" to make a decision.. all the same logic and why not to do that.

you'd need ~1000AB at AAA && consistent current ratings (good luck on that last one) to be able to use those stats as any indication of MLB success in an accurate way.

i wouldn't use that 45contact guy as a primary backup, but as a backup playing 30-40 games, no problem.. he's easily as good as any other backup catcher in the MLB, so that shouldn't be the reason not to use him. an average backup is far below average offensively.

this guy, if he's any good, will quickly makup the 5pts of contact in a month or two in the mlb. he's 90% developed already.

it's not a high-end catcher anyway... whatever is most convenient to the larger plan should be done. in this particular case, there's no wrong answer, only poor reasoning (for either choice, not just the one i didn't suggest). i'd trade this guy after a year or two to elevate his value to other teams and trade with a ton of years of club control... take the next ~4 years to find a real upgrade. plenty of time.

catchers are really hit an miss in any window of time relative to offense.. only the top 2-3 are worth a contract of note.. the rest are a waste of money for only a mild upgrade to offense for ~10-15M/year... might as well re-invest that elsewhere and run out defensive catchers costing 550k/year and batting 8th or 9th. that 15M will buy so much more elsewhere it's a net positive.
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Old 04-06-2018, 11:57 AM   #18
drhay53
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Ah, my bad. 'bi' is one of those prefixes for monthly that can either mean "twice a month" or "every two months". Anyway, I use the shortest time period available. Sorry for the confusion.

I typically like to see 200-400 PA before I'm satisfied that a player is being productive:
https://www.fangraphs.com/library/pr...s/sample-size/

Agree with you on catcher value; based on the way they're usually generated, I'm looking for a guy who can manage the staff, hit over 0.225, and have an OPS near league average. Typical catchers hit for low average with comparatively high power. If they have some eye, it's a real bonus.

I play my backup every 4th game anyway, so what's the point of overpaying for a guy that's only playing 120 games a season? The one exception for me, is I had a switch-hitting catcher who could hit .300 with 20-30 homers per year. I kept that guy a little while because the payroll was available.

edit: To fill in the details a little bit, I look at it like this. Every player has these 2 things: an adaptability rating that controls how quickly they settle into a new situation, and a scouting report with some accuracy attached to it. So in the good/bad performance scenarios, after 400 PA, I look at it like this:

first 400 PA in a league, good performance, high scout ratings:
Player is likely pretty adaptable. High scout rating more likely to be accurate. It could still be a fluke, but 400 PA is a pretty good sample size for hitters.

first 400 PA in a league, poor performance, high scout ratings:
player may not be adaptable, or high scout ratings are wrong. Needs more time before I look at them seriously. Could still be a fluke.

I generally don't pay a ton of attention to players with low scout ratings. But with a couple hundred more PA, you can see if the performance is coming up (player is settling in, reverting to mean perhaps) or really not coming up (player is overrated, or development has been stifled by advancing too quickly, etc.)

That's just my thought process.

Last edited by drhay53; 04-06-2018 at 12:20 PM.
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