March Madness thread

[Cobra Mgr]

Ready?

Minor conference tourneys are already starting. The majors for the men starts next week. And we start hearing more "bubble talk".

As always, in the power conferences, you have to look out for cinderella school that steals an automatic bid & thus, an at large bid for a bubble squad. But here are the more obscure conference tourney outcomes you might want to look out for if you are a bubble team..........

Atlantic 10......Current consensus holds that Dayton is comfortably in. But they are only 3rd in the A10. If they win their tourney, that opens up a spot for a bubble school. If they don't, the Flyers are going to take that spot.

West Coast........Gonzaga has dominated this division for over a decade. But St.Mary's won the reg season title this season. Both are locks to make the field. But the gap between them & San Francisco & Santa Clara is not as large as it usually is. If the Dons or Broncos sneak in for the title, a bubble is burst.

American Athletic.......This underrated basketball group should get 2 teams in. Which 2 remains to be seen. S.Florida surprisingly won the regular season w/just 1 loss. Florida Atlantic had another strong showing after a surprise run to the Final 4 last year. Yet, both are considered on the fringe. And they have 3 good teams (Memphis, SMU & Charlotte) on the outside of the bubble who are capable of making a run in Ft. Worth (why Ft Worth?). Those 3 might knock one of their fellow conference members out of the field or someone somewhere else.

[CONN CHRIS]

The buzz here in Big East country is that the league could get 5 teams in. I don't see it.

UCONN, Creighton, & Marquette are in

I only see hope for one more bid assuming a deep conf tournament run among these:

Seton Hall, Providence, St Johns, & Butler

For five to make it, Providence needs to win their season finale v. UCONN and pick up at least 2 wins in the tourney, and one of the other three needs to get to the final. Short of that, I think the number is 3.

[Cobra Mgr]

I think the Hall is in. IDK anyone who has a better win this year than a double digit victory over UConn.

I would think Providence is in if they beat UConn this weekend.

StJohn's & Nova are name schools in huge markets. So the committee will look for excuses to include at least one of them. A sweep over Nova & a down the stretch blowout of Creighton after they upset UConn gives J's the edge.

I don't even count Butler as having a shot @ an @ large bid. They have to sweep MSG or else.

[CONN CHRIS]

Hope you are right. 5 or 6 Big East teams in would be a big deal 'round these parts.

[Cobra Mgr]

Why did Tennessee choose not to play defense?

[monkeyman576]

There has been parity the past few years so I'm hoping Washington State can take advantage of that and make a run.

[Cobra Mgr]

Update........West Coast was won by St.Mary's. So that saved a bubble spot.

........But Dayton lost tonight to Duquense. So the Atlantic 10 champ will 'take" a bubble spot away. And it won;t be reg season champ Richmond, who lost to St.Joe's........

Bubbles that burst...........

Wake lost to Pitt in a battle between schools on the brink.........Kansas St lost to Iowa St..........Iowa fell to Ohio St

Bubbles still intact...........Pitt (Big chance to get off the bubble if they win tomorrow night over UNC).......Miss St (They have potential #1 seed Tenn next. A win there will solidify their spot.)..........StJohn's beat Seton Hall (Both will probably make it, but the Hall might be sweating on Sunday)...........Texas A&M stayed alive with a win over Ole Miss......UVa survived vs BC. (W/dook's upset loss to NCSt, UVa has a chance to sneak into the ACC tourney finals and remove all doubt.)

Waiting..........Colorado & N.Mexico will play tonight

Season done.........Indiana St & Oklahoma. Lunardi has the Sooners in. I think they are a prime example of the Big12ish's overrated standing......I think, for all intents & purposes, Indiana St is out. I think there are too many teams still playing who have an opportunity to stand out in the selection committee's minds this weekend.

[Cobra Mgr]

Nova's follow up OT loss to Marquette after a way harder than it should be win over DePaul has probably eliminated them...........New Mexico & Colorado stay in the hunt.

[Cobra Mgr]

Miss St is locked in after a dominant win over Tennessee. Open the door for UNC to get the 4th top seed if they can sweep thru their tourney. Zona lurks.

[Cobra Mgr]

Pittsburgh lost an MMA match vs UNC. From what I saw today, the Panthers are tourney worthy. But not enough bubble teams are losing to give the Panthers an opening based on Lunardi's projections.

StJohn's had a credible showing vs UConn & TxA&M defeated Kentucky to stay in the hunt.

Ohio St's hopes are dashed w/a loss to Illinois.

[Cobra Mgr]

Arizona lost to Oregon. That should seal the #1 seed for UNC in the West.

If Colorado defeats Wash St tonight, that also means one less bubble spot.

[Cobra Mgr]

UVa may have sealed their fate w/an OT loss to NCSt in the ACC semis. Not were the Cavs on the edge, but if the Pack win tomorrow night, that is another bubble spot popped. Cavs had a 5 pt lead & shooting ft's after a flagrant foul call, yet blew it thanks to their season long horrific free throw shooting & a miraculous banked in 3 @ the end of regulation.

[Cobra Mgr]

It's going to be a tough Sunday for teams entering the week on the bubble.

Conference championships were won by New Mexico, NCSt, & Oregon. Giving automatic bids to 3 teams not originally in as locks. The Atlantic Ten will give us a 4th. UAB & Temple won upsets in the American semis that will give us a 5th. Too many "unqualified" qualifiers and not enough spots to go around.

Some will argue this is why the tourney should be expanded. I say this is why it shouldn't. This is the madness that made March into March Madness. Teams going out and taking their last chance and seizing it. Like NCSt winning 5 games in 5 days, including the top 3 seeds. One of which was Virginia, who didn't seize the opportunity (in fact, threw it away). Those schools that don't make it aren't being robbed. They had multiple chances & they didn't succeed.

So I'm thinking UVa, Pitt, Wake, Seton Hall, Providence, need to get ready for the NIT. St.Johns, Oklahoma, TCU, Colorado & maybe even Michigan St are going to be very nervous til 6-630 tonight.

[CONN CHRIS]

Wild weekend. Looking forward to seeing the bracket.

[monkeyman576]

Gonna be a mad march!

[Cobra Mgr]

FAU was expected to be one of the last selected. #8 is about 3-4 seeds higher than expected.

Auburn as SEC champ is surprisingly low @ #4. That poor record vs Quad 1 coming in must have hurt them.

Iowa St @ #2 is probably good news for UNC's #1 hopes

[monkeyman576]

Wazzu should beat Drake. Iowa St could be tough but not impossible.

[Cobra Mgr]

Washington St got a bad deal. Playing Drake in Omaha. That is just a 2 hour trip. from De Moines, Ia.

[Cobra Mgr]

Nebraska surprised me this year. A&M was supposed to be at the bottom of the at large hopefuls. That is a good matchup. Huskers got a chance vs Houston.

I hate putting 2 teams from the same conference in the same region if they have less than 4. Always sounds fishy to me. NCSt & dook both headed to the South region.

[Cobra Mgr]

TCU at #9. I thought they were being overrated. Still think they are overrated.

Kansas @ #4, Zags @ #5. Midwest shaping into the weakest region.
S.Car @ 6, another potential upset.

Wow! Virginia got in.