3B is the most vital. Change my mind.

neugey · 11-03-2019, 08:39 AM

Does anyone else feel, particularly in today's game, having a savvy 3B is actually more critical to success than the conventional arguments for SS, CF or C? With all the shifting and the way hitters hit, it seems like so much of the hard contact goes to the corners and the mis-hits and bad contact seem to go to the 2B or SS. All the shifting tends to negate the ability of the 2B and SS to make fantastic plays. Yes I know 3B has always been the "hot corner" but it seems more than ever if you don't have a Chapman or Rendon it saves SO many runs, especially preventing doubles and triples. The importance of 1B has crept up too. Look at how the Yankees found Urschela and how it important it was to their success this year.

BTW this is more of a real-life observation than OOTP, but often I have a lot of fun blending the two

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CBeisbol · 11-03-2019, 09:22 AM

In 2019 3B had 13067 chances in 43423 innings.or 436 per 1450 innings.

In 2000 3B had 13432 chances in 43244 innings or 450 per 1450 innings

In 1980 3B had 13043 chances in 37861 innings or 499 per 1450 innings
*https://www.baseball-reference.com/l...fielding.shtml

Third basemen appear to be getting less defensive opportunities over time. Probably due to strike outs.

The same, of course, is probably true for other defensive positions, so we'd have to look at them to see if the *relative* importance of third basemen is increasing.

EDIT
In 2019 3B had 13067 of 177120 total chances - 7.4%
In 2000 3B had 13423 of 182853 total chances - 7.3%
In 1980 3B had 13043 of 165160 total chances - 7.9%
*https://www.baseball-reference.com/l...fielding.shtml

In the three years sampled, total chances for 3Bmen show, if anything, a decrease.

Matt Arnold · 11-03-2019, 10:23 AM

Personally, I feel that the value of 2B has gone down, because shifting tends to give them less space to handle. SS I think tends to open up more, and has more tough plays up the middle. 3B does sometimes end up as literally the only guy on that side of the field, but that's because balls don't tend to get hit there often. On a soft shift they would end up with more space to cover, true.

I'm surprised that GB rates are actually pretty consistent year over year. And relatively speaking, 3B has had less of a drop in assists relative to 2B or SS (2B has gone from ~14k assists per year down to about 12k, SS 14 down to 12.6, 3B steady in the low 9000s). So based on that, you could certainly argue that 3B has experienced less of a decline, although in raw numbers they still get less chances than the more up the middle spots.

Orcin · 11-03-2019, 11:14 AM

The Cardinals were one of the top defensive teams in the N.L. and Matt Carpenter played the majority of their innings at 3B. I conclude 3B is not critical to team defense.

mytreds · 11-06-2019, 05:39 PM

I'd say it's less about a 3B's defense and more about his offense. Better to have a mediocre 3B on defense with a big bat than to have a Gold Glover who can't hit.

CBeisbol · 11-06-2019, 05:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mytreds

I'd say it's less about a 3B's defense and more about his offense. Better to have a mediocre 3B on defense with a big bat than to have a Gold Glover who can't hit.

According to this research

Quote:

Originally Posted by Argonaut

The Rankings:

1. CF - 8.65 wins added
2. SS - 8.52 wins added
3. C - 6.22 wins added
4. 2B - 5.54 wins added
5. RF - 3.60 wins added
6. 3B - 2.56 wins added
7. 1B - 0.84 wins added
8. LF - 0.78 wins added

That's just not true.

Your big bat would have to be more than two and a half wins better than the good defensive third baseman to be more valuable.*

*In this situation. The relative differences between offense and defense are always important and make statements like "It's a better to have a big hitter than a gold-glover" meaningless. It always depends on how gold the glove and how big the bat.

mytreds · 11-06-2019, 05:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CBeisbol

According to this research

That's just not true.

Your big bat would have to be more than two and a half wins better than the good defensive third baseman to be more valuable.*

*In this situation. The relative differences between offense and defense are always important and make statements like "It's a better to have a big hitter than a gold-glover" meaningless. It always depends on how gold the glove and how big the bat.

Thought we were talking real life and not OOTP simulations, which is what you're quoting from.

To build off the Matt Carpenter example, Pablo Sandoval is a mediocre 3B, but has a bat. And he has 3 WS titles. Nolan Arenado is a stud not because he's a Gold Glover, but because he's a bat as well. Still waiting for his shot at the WS.

We're also talking about 3B being the most vital position, not getting into a discussion about WAR, or so I thought.

CBeisbol · 11-06-2019, 06:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mytreds

Thought we were talking real life and not OOTP, which is what you're quoting from.

Fair, enough

But, the same basic point holds

It's not better to have a good hitter or a good defender. It's better to have a better player.

If your good hitter produces 50 runs on offense and gives up 20 on defense (net 30) and your good defender produces 20 runs on offense and saves 20 on defense (net 40), then the better defender is the better player.

It always depends on how good/bad on offense and how good/bad on defense.

Now, it is possible that the range of good and bad (especially on defense, especially in LF and 1B in OOTP as Argonaut showed) might make thinking about the difference moot.

11-03-2019, 08:39 AM	#1
neugey All Star Reserve Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 805 Blog Entries: 39	3B is the most vital. Change my mind. Does anyone else feel, particularly in today's game, having a savvy 3B is actually more critical to success than the conventional arguments for SS, CF or C? With all the shifting and the way hitters hit, it seems like so much of the hard contact goes to the corners and the mis-hits and bad contact seem to go to the 2B or SS. All the shifting tends to negate the ability of the 2B and SS to make fantastic plays. Yes I know 3B has always been the "hot corner" but it seems more than ever if you don't have a Chapman or Rendon it saves SO many runs, especially preventing doubles and triples. The importance of 1B has crept up too. Look at how the Yankees found Urschela and how it important it was to their success this year. BTW this is more of a real-life observation than OOTP, but often I have a lot of fun blending the two . __________________ Online OOTP League Play: PBA - Cincinnati Reds MLM - Baltimore Orioles

11-03-2019, 09:22 AM	#2
CBeisbol Banned Join Date: Aug 2019 Location: Ban land in 3...2... Posts: 2,943	In 2019 3B had 13067 chances in 43423 innings.or 436 per 1450 innings. In 2000 3B had 13432 chances in 43244 innings or 450 per 1450 innings In 1980 3B had 13043 chances in 37861 innings or 499 per 1450 innings https://www.baseball-reference.com/l...fielding.shtml Third basemen appear to be getting less defensive opportunities over time. Probably due to strike outs. The same, of course, is probably true for other defensive positions, so we'd have to look at them to see if the relative* importance of third basemen is increasing. EDIT In 2019 3B had 13067 of 177120 total chances - 7.4% In 2000 3B had 13423 of 182853 total chances - 7.3% In 1980 3B had 13043 of 165160 total chances - 7.9% https://www.baseball-reference.com/l...fielding.shtml In the three years sampled, total chances for 3Bmen show, if anything, a decrease. Last edited by CBeisbol; 11-03-2019 at 10:02 AM.*

11-03-2019, 10:23 AM	#3
Matt Arnold OOTP Developer Join Date: Jun 2009 Location: Here and there Posts: 14,136	Personally, I feel that the value of 2B has gone down, because shifting tends to give them less space to handle. SS I think tends to open up more, and has more tough plays up the middle. 3B does sometimes end up as literally the only guy on that side of the field, but that's because balls don't tend to get hit there often. On a soft shift they would end up with more space to cover, true. I'm surprised that GB rates are actually pretty consistent year over year. And relatively speaking, 3B has had less of a drop in assists relative to 2B or SS (2B has gone from ~14k assists per year down to about 12k, SS 14 down to 12.6, 3B steady in the low 9000s). So based on that, you could certainly argue that 3B has experienced less of a decline, although in raw numbers they still get less chances than the more up the middle spots.

11-03-2019, 11:14 AM	#4
Orcin Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: Indiana Posts: 9,798	The Cardinals were one of the top defensive teams in the N.L. and Matt Carpenter played the majority of their innings at 3B. I conclude 3B is not critical to team defense.

11-06-2019, 05:39 PM	#5
mytreds All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2019 Posts: 856	I'd say it's less about a 3B's defense and more about his offense. Better to have a mediocre 3B on defense with a big bat than to have a Gold Glover who can't hit.